2023 JGPF Entries: Who will make it? | Golden Skate

2023 JGPF Entries: Who will make it?

zebobes

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 29, 2012
Country
Taiwan
I'm slightly surprised that no one has started this thread yet, but does anyone have any thoughts on how the last two competitions will shake out?

What makes the JGP so interesting is that with seven competitions, in singles, it could easily end up with 7 different winners. In fact, in men this year, there will almost certainly be 7 different winners, so that guarantees that a gold medalist will not make it to the JGPF. I must admit, that as a Minkyu Seo fan, I have been trying to desperately figure out how it will be possible for him to make it to the final. While it's not an impossibility, it is looking increasingly unlikely, as he is currently ranked 5, and thus in the remaining 2 events, if more than one skater gets more than 24 points, he would become an alternate. (I

This is not an impossibility, as if people like Yudong Chen or Shunsuke Nakamura, who skated really poorly their first events but have great potential, did incredibly well and won gold at their final events, that would help to keep other skaters lower and thus keep Minkyu in.

That said, I don't like rooting against other skaters, and Minkyu still has two more years of Junior ahead of him. Missing the final this year would give him motivation to come back stronger next year. In any case, it will be exciting to see what ends up happening!

I guess I find the men to be the most interesting, as things seem more unpredictable, so does anyone else have any thoughts on the finalists?
 

Jumping_Bean

Record Breaker
Joined
Jan 17, 2022
Pairs:
As there is just one more competition left for pairs, the JGPF qualification picture is already fairly clear - Metelkina/Berulava, Ariano Kent/Laliberte Laurent and Flores/Wang are already qualified and will almost certainly be joined by Sierova/Khobta and Desrochers/Thrasher. The last spot will most likely go to Kemp/Elizarov, Shi/Wang, or Ehrhard/Pellegris, depending on K/E's and S/W's placements in Gdansk this week. If Napolitano/Comi make it onto the podium, they could play spoiler and make it to the JGPF themselves if K/E place 5th and S/W 6th.

Ice Dance:
Neset/Markelov
and Pedersen/Chen are safely qualified, and will likely be joined by Grimm/Savitskiy, Pinchuk/Pogorielov and Tkachenko/Kiliakov. The last spot will be between Fradji/Fourneaux, the Peals and Zehnder/Sieber.

Women:
Jia Shin
, Ami Nakai and Yuseong Kim are already qualified, Mao Shimada will join them after her second JGP assignment. That leaves two open spots, which are likely to go to Rena Uezono and Minsol Kwon. Should Minsol finish in 3rd at her second JGP (which is unlikely but not impossible), that would leave her out of the final, with Yo Takagi, Elyce Lin-Gracey and Ikura Kushida then being the next likely skaters to fill the last spot.

Men:
Does it even make sense to try and predict anything with how things have been going this season? 😂 Well, Rio Nakata, Francois Pitot and Hyungyeom Kim are safely through to the final, that much is clear at least. It's the other three spots that are up in the air right now. Adam Hagara has a pretty good shot, as does Juheon Lim. Beck Strommer, Daniel Martynov and Daiya Ebihara would all need at least a silver medal to beat out Minkyu Seo, and it does seem more unlikely than not that none of them will manage to do that, though with the interesting competition results we've already had this season, likelihood is nothing more than a word it seems.


Conclusion: Men's remains the chaos category, despite there having been many unexpected upsets in the other disciplines this season too. 🤷‍♀️
 
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zebobes

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 29, 2012
Country
Taiwan
Thank you, @Jumping_Bean, for the thorough analysis! Agreed, the men are chaotic, which is what also makes it more interesting to speculate. At the moment, it does seem incredibly unlikely that Daniel Martynov will not get at least a silver, whereas the competition in Poland has more people fighting for medals.

We shall see how the nerves affect the men!
 

throw_triple_flip

Final Flight
Joined
Sep 7, 2023
Country
United-Kingdom
I think Adam Hagara will make the mens final. As will Shi/Wang in Pairs.

I would love for Zehnder/Sieber to get there. And Rena Uezono in the womens, she's got something pretty unique about her.
 

FlossieH

Medalist
Joined
Dec 2, 2022
Country
United-Kingdom
Adam Hagara will make it unless either Beck Strommer or Daiya Ebihara wins at Gdansk with Juheon Lim taking silver AND Daniel Martynov wins in Yerevan. That is possible, but seems unlikely. Silver for Strommer/Ebihara/Martynov would give them the same points as Hagara, who would qualify above them on the first tiebreaker.
 

Ziotic

Medalist
Joined
Dec 23, 2016
As it stands it looks like the top three in pairs today will move to the final. Obviously ice is slippery but just as a general prediction.
 

Dreamer57

Record Breaker
Joined
May 20, 2018
I like Rena's style and hope she makes it there!
Adam Hagara will make it unless either Beck Strommer or Daiya Ebihara wins at Gdansk with Juheon Lim taking silver AND Daniel Martynov wins in Yerevan. That is possible, but seems unlikely. Silver for Strommer/Ebihara/Martynov would give them the same points as Hagara, who would qualify above them on the first tiebreaker.
It would be nice to see Adam make it, as I like the growing variety of countries represented - Japan, Korea, France and perhaps USA too! Just sad Naoki's chances are slim :(
 

zebobes

Final Flight
Joined
Mar 29, 2012
Country
Taiwan
It is looking good for Adam, as both Daiya and Beck underperformed. Beck could still make it to second, but Adam would still win because of tiebreakers. Seeing how steady Juheon has been, I doubt Beck could overtake him for first.

If Ed Appleby remains second, both Adam (and perhaps Minkyu) should give him a present for helping pave the way to the final. Also, it would be cool to see another nation on the podium!
 

FlossieH

Medalist
Joined
Dec 2, 2022
Country
United-Kingdom
It is looking good for Adam, as both Daiya and Beck underperformed. Beck could still make it to second, but Adam would still win because of tiebreakers. Seeing how steady Juheon has been, I doubt Beck could overtake him for first.

If Ed Appleby remains second, both Adam (and perhaps Minkyu) should give him a present for helping pave the way to the final. Also, it would be cool to see another nation on the podium!
I haven't watched the mens short from yesterday yet (have only managed the ladies so far) but I would be delighted if Ed Appleby medalled. He got a bronze at Courchevel a couple of years ago but it was an early GP and a weaker field. I am expecting Ed to overtake Graham Newberry at some point, but that might not be this year.
 

lariko

Medalist
Joined
Jan 31, 2019
Country
Canada
Zehnder/Sieber.
are the ones i want to qualify the most from the maybe list, and i am also keeping my fingers crossed for Kwon and Martynov. I really wish Gladki or Gurgenidze were still in the running, but alas... no dice.
 

4everchan

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 7, 2015
Country
Martinique

lariko

Medalist
Joined
Jan 31, 2019
Country
Canada
Confirmed Pairs Entry for JGPF

1Anastasiia METELKINA / Luka BERULAVAGEO1515301371.822233.96120.51137.8622Q
2Martina ARIANO KENT / Charly LALIBERTE LAURENTCAN1511261311.872208.30104.61103.5724Q
3Violetta SIEROVA / Ivan KHOBTAUKR1313262305.302195.2798.25110.0327Q
4Olivia FLORES / Luke WANGUSA1313262301.742200.20105.00101.5418Q
5Ava KEMP / Yohnatan ELIZAROVCAN915241292.842194.35105.6698.4927Q
6Jazmine DESROCHERS / Kieran THRASHERCAN1111223283.292173.2091.49110.0921Q
Nice showing by the Canadians!
 

4everchan

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 7, 2015
Country
Martinique
Women : Jia, Ami, Rena and Yuseong are for sure in. Mao, with 15 points already and entered for the last JGP should get a spot too.
Looking at the other women entered in the last event, unless Yujae (11 points) is given a spot, the other contenders only have at most 9 points (Eyce-Lyn and Ikura) So, to beat Minsol, they would need to win the event. So pretty much, with Mao winning, and she is probably the best bet to win the last event, it leaves only 13 points to the next skater. Unless Yujae is entered and gets second and beats Minsol in the tie breaker, it's a done deal.
It's a very safe bet to expect
Mao, 30
Jia 30
Ami 30
Rena 28
Yuseong 26
and
Minsol 24 into the finals.
If Mao doesn't win it, Minsol would most likely be eliminated as Yujae, if entered, would get 26, Eyce-Lyn/Ikura would get 24 but win the TB over Minsol. So Minsol fans will be hoping for a Mao win in Armenia.
1Jia SHINKOR1515301402.072265.44134.49136.6371
2Ami NAKAIJPN1515S301385.302250.74127.58134.5665
3Rena UEZONOJPN1315S281380.022251.53127.46128.4967
4Yuseong KIMKOR1313262366.902243.83126.88123.0769
5Minsol KWONKOR1113242349.452235.35119.52114.1066
6Yo TAKAGIJPN913S222359.762238.04124.73121.7266
7Seojin YOUNKOR711183352.082217.14109.79134.9467
8Ayumi SHIBAYAMAJPN511S163333.982218.70114.94115.2871
9Mao SHIMADAJPN15X151213.861140.08140.0873.7835
 

Dreamer57

Record Breaker
Joined
May 20, 2018
Yujae only has 1 event, as determined in the ranking competition.

(So not much can change unless Mao ends up not winning, as you said)
 

4everchan

Record Breaker
Joined
Mar 7, 2015
Country
Martinique
Yujae only has 1 event, as determined in the ranking competition.

(So not much can change unless Mao ends up not winning, as you said)
okay... so then, Mao can place anywhere in top 4 and would get a spot based on 1st place tie breaker.
 
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