A Case for Mirai Nagasu

[Miss Ice]

You have to be living on another planet to say that Mirai has been on average more consistent than Karen. Given the ratio of the amount of times she had the chance to prove herself to the times she ACTUALLY proved herself, it is pretty much the same as Karen's. I love Mirai but I think there is a limit to second chances just for the sake of second chances in sports... :sad21:

 

[Moxiejan]

Something to consider: IIRC, the participants for the world team event (after worlds) are based on the skaters' international rankings. AND, thanks to her good results at 4CC, Mirai has now moved ahead of Gracie as USA's second-ranked skater.
So unless Karen or Mariah gets a very high finish at Worlds, Mirai's season isn't over. She will be going to the team event with Ashley.

 

[Mathman]

..it would be as if I would write a piece for GS on why there should be public funding for antique aircraft racing....who would read it?

Would it include pictures of a lot of eye-catching airplanes doing amazing tricks?

http://images.onset.freedom.com/ocregister/blogs/taxdollars.ocregister.com/n3n-3-300x240.jpg

 

[bobbob]

You have to be living on another planet to say that Mirai has been on average more consistent than Karen. Given the ratio of the amount of times she had the chance to prove herself to the times she ACTUALLY proved herself, it is pretty much the same as Karen's. I love Mirai but I think there is a limit to second chances just for the sake of second chances in sports... :sad21:

Yeah, Mirai is just as inconsistent if not moreso, BUT when she is ON, she has much more potential...her PB sp is 73 and fs 132 (both scored internationally this year), and she's scored in the SP many times in the mid high 60s and high 120s for free skate. Karen Personal Best SP is 64 from many many years ago at a Junior event, and 121 PB free skate...not even close. Mirai may just as likely bomb as Karen, but if she skates well, things will be good.

 

[bobbob]

Karen and Mariah might, but I wouldn't. The USFSA published, a year in advance, a statement what criteria would be taken into account in selecting the Worlds team. The 2017 Four Continents was not on the list. You can't suddenly pretend that there are no rules just because you decide afterwards that they didn't work out the way you hoped.

(By the way, I think that 2017 4 Continents is on the list for choosing the 2018 world and Olympic team. So Mirai has a leg up before the season even starts. Go Mirai!)

Yeah, rules, rules, rules What I'm saying is that other feds may not have as many internal rules and that may be better for them. Anyways, not the end of the world, next season is what matters, though having a higher chance at 3 spots would have been great.

 

[nguyhm]

I am biased and would always wish Mirai could go to Worlds but since the decision is already set in stone I'm happy that she earned a medal at 4CC and went out on a high note. However I'm more nervous now about the US being able to keep 3 spots after watching how Karen and Mariah skated. Let's hope they will do much better at Worlds. It's important that they can cope with the pressure because it would be extreme with that 3rd spot for the Olympics being on the line.

 

[slider11]

Something to consider: IIRC, the participants for the world team event (after worlds) are based on the skaters' international rankings. AND, thanks to her good results at 4CC, Mirai has now moved ahead of Gracie as USA's second-ranked skater.
So unless Karen or Mariah gets a very high finish at Worlds, Mirai's season isn't over. She will be going to the team event with Ashley.

Interesting statistical reference with Mirai's world rankings. Here's the thing - I get that Mirai has had up and down seasons. But in the big scheme she has way more experience with international competitions than either Mariah and Karen. With the strength of Russia, Asia and others, the USA is going to have to put their best bet on the line to hold that "lucky 13" number and send 3 to Olympics. I think Ashley can handle the pressure to come in the top 5. Who, then can handle the pressure to be in the top 10 at Worlds? Mariah? Karen? Don't see it. Mirai? Maybe! I know a maybe is not good enough for some but it's better than doubtful. Then next season, whoever earns the three spots get them.

I wonder if Karen or Mariah's coach might say to their skater-look you have a lot of talent and potential but I don't see top placement for you at this Worlds. And you have a country depending on your placement at this year's World's to determine next year's Olympic placements. Are you prepared for that challenge and the tremendous pressure to not only compete on a world stage but be the destiny for a country? (a little dramatic in the scheme of world affairs, but still....) So how 'bout we cash our chips in NOW, ramp up for next season and go for one of those three spots then? It's kind of like in baseball when a team puts in a relief pitcher or designated batter, not because others are that bad, but they think this one person may have the right stuff to help them in that specific moment. I know....HIGHLY unlikely...who'd give up a World spot unless injured? How about a coach/skater that thinks strategy over ego?

 

[brightphoton]

I know....HIGHLY unlikely...who'd give up a World spot unless injured? How about a coach/skater that thinks strategy over ego?

Not highly unlikely, but impossible. Rachael Flatt and Alissa Czisny wouldn't give up their spots, even when they were very injured. Even more so for Alissa, as she was so injured she couldn't do a single triple jump.

It's so hard to be named to the World team, and our skaters treasure a World berth like Gollum and his ring. Skaters will compete, even if their tibia or hips are screaming in pain.

 

[andromache]

Mirai? Don't see it.

Karen or Mariah? Maybe.

I've reversed your (il)logic. See how silly it is?

Plus, why would Mariah or Karen or their coaches bet on Mirai to secure three spots? Sorry, Mirai is inconsistent and underrotates a lot of her jumps, and her components really aren't as good either, assuming all skate clean. None of them are super likely to skate clean - but I would say Mariah and Karen have as good of a chance as Mirai does.

Can you imagine?

Raf: Mariah, you should drop out of Worlds so Mirai can help Ashley keep three spots for next year.

Mariah: You must be looking at the wrong stats that you think are Mirai'sfor you to assume she's the solution here, but sure Raf, I trust you and your obvious strategic brilliance.

Post-Worlds

Mariah: WELL THANKS RAF we are down to two spots for next year and I didn't even get my chance to fight for my own Olympic spot. But at least the Mirai fans are happy.

God, I want Mariah and/or Karen to skate well at Worlds SO BADLY. At this point for me, I care less about the three spots and more about wanting these girls to prove everyone who doubted them and came up with these, quite frankly, ridiculous and outlandish solutions, wrong wrong wrong.

 

[Mathman]

Yeah, rules, rules, rules What I'm saying is that other feds may not have as many internal rules and that may be better for them.

Rules protect the skaters. To me, it only thing worse than rules is the situation where the big-shots are not bound by rules. They govern by whimsical fiat and if you don't like it, too bad.

Anyways, not the end of the world, next season is what matters, though having a higher chance at 3 spots would have been great.

I agree with that.

 

[FlattFan]

Mirai skates great at 4CC when there's no pressure and she knows she's not going to Worlds.

Why do you keep on bringing up this very wrong point? There is pressure. There is money on the line. There is PB/SB stat on the line. There is assignments for next year on the line. There is reputation on the line. Which girl doesn't feel pressure? Why do Mariah and Karen not have any pressure when they are going to worlds? Stop repeating stupid thing like no pressure.

 

[Figure 8's]

Oh Please! Not another Mirai was robbed Thread. She had her chance at Nationals and she bombed. Why keep beating it to death?

 

[andromache]

Why do you keep on bringing up this very wrong point? There is pressure. There is money on the line. There is PB/SB stat on the line. There is assignments for next year on the line. There is reputation on the line. Which girl doesn't feel pressure? Why do Mariah and Karen not have any pressure when they are going to worlds? Stop repeating stupid thing like no pressure.

It's easier to peak physically and mentally for 4CCs if you're not overly concerned with having to be in peak form for Worlds afterward.

 

[demitasse]

This was phenomenal feedback, thank you so much for this. My point is definitely the latter, with the 2017 world team as just one example of why they should reevaluate how and when they do assignments.

Regarding Mirai being an inconsistent competitor, you are absolutely correct and I'll address this in the piece. I would posit that most of the inconsistency we criticize her for is from her lack of success on the Grand Prix series, and it's quite clear that Mirai is not an early season skater. But generally speaking, she's done well enough at nationals and 4CC for me to think that she skate decently - not necessarily great or well, but decently enough - at worlds too.

Once again, appreciate your feedback!
ETA: do you have a background in journalism? or is "lede" just a part of your daily lexicon?

Not in journalism! Just had some friends who were involved in the college paper. I remember the first time I heard "nut graf," I thought I must have surely misheard something Which does lead me to my next point: I agree with many of the others that you need to address the "Who cares?" question, to put it bluntly, based on your presumptive audience. This piece might be something to sit on -- and edit -- until we get closer to the Olympics and the general, non-FS fan public might actually care, for even a brief moment, about why the U.S. possibly has a smaller team for one of the marquee events. I can tell that you've put in a lot of work to include all those details and I definitely understand that impulse to share all the nitty-gritty stuff that we, as fans, love to pick over. But if this is a piece for a non-skating audience, then I agree on the need to scale back.

 

[b-man]

You have to be living on another planet to say that Mirai has been on average more consistent than Karen. Given the ratio of the amount of times she had the chance to prove herself to the times she ACTUALLY proved herself, it is pretty much the same as Karen's. I love Mirai but I think there is a limit to second chances just for the sake of second chances in sports... :sad21:

Mirai now 7th in world standings list, Karen is a respectable 16th. On season's best list, Mirai is 12th with her 4CC score, Karen is 38th, her best a 179 at Cup of China.

 

[Mrs. P]

This piece might be something to sit on -- and edit -- until we get closer to the Olympics and the general, non-FS fan public might actually care, for even a brief moment, about why the U.S. possibly has a smaller team for one of the marquee events.

That's a good idea. If anything, this piece might be appropriate this fall as we get into the GP series and talk about how Olympic spots will be decided etc. You might also want to see if you can shop the piece around. Your local paper might be interested for a Saturday op-ed or something like that. Or you might want to propose it to your school newspaper for the sports section. There's a lot of ways to go at it.

 

[Skater Boy]

Oh Please! Not another Mirai was robbed Thread. She had her chance at Nationals and she bombed. Why keep beating it to death?

The title of this thread does not necessarily mean Mirai was robbed or that Mariah or Karen the two most likely to lose a spot if this were to transpire are likely to bomb. And people stop saying someone bombed. Mirai, Gracie and heck Katleyn's fourth place finishes at various events are not bombs.

It is sometimes bad chemistry - timing. \like i said Josee Choinard in 1996 skated poorly for her at nats and didn't go to worlds where the clearly weaker skater overall Robinson couldn't make the top 15. Mirai didn't do as well as she hoped at nats and thigns didn't line up - had Asley won gold then they might have bumped the third skater for Mirai but life is life. M issue is Chen. is she really ready to skate without boot problems; i rather doubt even if there is a problem she will fully reveal it now She knows what happened to flaltt and whe knows world spots ar ehard to come by.

 

[Hevari]

God, I want Mariah and/or Karen to skate well at Worlds SO BADLY. At this point for me, I care less about the three spots and more about wanting these girls to prove everyone who doubted them and came up with these, quite frankly, ridiculous and outlandish solutions, wrong wrong wrong.

Me too!! I want everybody - please stop that three-spot-hysteria! Why not just support all girls? They need our support much more than all that talks about three-spot bringing chances...

 

[Skater Boy]

I am biased and would always wish Mirai could go to Worlds but since the decision is already set in stone I'm happy that she earned a medal at 4CC and went out on a high note. However I'm more nervous now about the US being able to keep 3 spots after watching how Karen and Mariah skated. Let's hope they will do much better at Worlds. It's important that they can cope with the pressure because it would be extreme with that 3rd spot for the Olympics being on the line.

Karen was sick. Mariah did fine. The key is the third Japanese lady, ET, the chinese laady and the two Canadians if they beat both Karen and Mariah three spots is i jeopordy. Assuming two Japanese ladies, three RUssian ladies, Ashely and Carolina are ahead of both Karen and Mariah they need to beat some of those forementioned ladies. And this was before the Canadians ladies announced their emergence that they are ready to compete with the big guns.

 

[chuckm]

Mirai now 7th in world standings list, Karen is a respectable 16th. On season's best list, Mirai is 12th with her 4CC score, Karen is 38th, her best a 179 at Cup of China.

That would be great if Mirai always scored 194.95 in her international competitions. But this year she scored 176.77 at Lombardia, 190.11 at the Skate Canada Autumn Classic, 151.52 at Skate Canada, 180.33 at NHK and then 194.95 at 4CC. There isn't any pattern to it: she can skate great one time, and horribly the next.

And based on last year's Worlds scores, 194.95 would place Mirai TENTH, just like last year---IF she went and IF she were able to skate as well as she did at 4CC (and if, of course, the caller wasn't a nitpicker). Last year, her Worlds score dropped 7 points from her 4CC score for similar jump content.