A Case for Mirai Nagasu

[Figure 8's]

Unfairly? besides the fact that she no doubt was behind the attack on Nancy isn't there some rule of conduct in place for Olympians to behave which she broke? The USOC or USFS should never have caved in and allowed her to go to Lillehammer. She was a disgrace representing the USA.

But they were never able to prove she was behind it. The thing is, Tonya was never the Poster Girl for the US image of the Figure Skater. She smoked, she was married and she didn't wear prissy white dresses. But she sure could land a good Triple Axel.

 

[moriel]

I was NOT supposing Gracie at Worlds this year.
But the reality is it was the combination of Gracie+Ashley that won back the 3 ladies spots. Ashley can't do it on her own, and none of Mariah, Karen or even Mirai is skilled enough to fill Gracie's skates and help Ashley hold onto that third spot.

They are just skilled enough to outskate Gracie at pretty much every event this year.

 

[Mathman]

But they were never able to prove she was behind it.

Tonya agreed to a plea deal with prosecutors whereby she would plead guilty to the lesser crime of hindering a police investigation in exchange for a sentence that did not include prison time. "What did she know and when did she know it" was never fully resolved, although she did make phone calls to Nancy's training facility just prior to the attack, trying to find out Nancy's schedule. (The actual attacker traveled to Massachusetts first looking for Nancy, but missed her there.)

Part of the guilty plea (besides a fine and probation) stipulated that Tonya would withdraw from membership in the USFSA and its events.

In view of the determinations of the court and Harding's guilty plea, the USFSA really had no choice except to ban her.

She did have a fine triple Axel in 1991. But in 1992 she dropped to third at the U.S. Championships (behind Kristi and Nancy), and by 1993 she finished 4th behind Nancy, Lisa Irvin and Tanya Kwiatkowski. It is unlikely that she would have made an impact at Lillehammer in any case.

 

[Mathman]

They are just skilled enough to outskate Gracie at pretty much every event this year.

I think chuckm's point was that the U.S. was able to get three spots last year with Ashley on the podium and Gracie 4th. This year it is unlikely that either Karen or Mariah will finish high enough to help Ashley out (and for that matter, Ashley is less likely to reach the podium this year compared to last).

 

[AC96]

Hi everybody,

Thanks to all of you for your insight and recommendations. They were tremendously helpful, particularly in pushing me to adjust for my audience and focus my point. The piece has been submitted so the final draft will be out soon, but since I want to keep my name and university anonymous on this board, I won't be posting a link to that haha.

Anyway, feel free to check out this link with the rough final draft and feel free to continue to PM me feedback (though the feedback likely won't make it to the actual publication): https://docs.google.com/document/d/1AJKAZSRgYO1m-icWPWo3RfMEEda9fEPdMp43D1f-EXs/edit?usp=sharing

Thanks again for all your help and encouragement! (Particularly Mathman and Mrs. P!)

 

[moriel]

I think chuckm's point was that the U.S. was able to get three spots last year with Ashley on the podium and Gracie 4th. This year it is unlikely that either Karen or Mariah will finish high enough to help Ashley out (and for that matter, Ashley is less likely to reach the podium this year compared to last).

But then, based on how Gracie skated through this year, its doesn't look like she is more likely to place 4th than all the other ladies.
In fact, she could just as well score something like 160.

 

[SnowWhite]

But then, based on how Gracie skated through this year, its doesn't look like she is more likely to place 4th than all the other ladies.
In fact, she could just as well score something like 160.

But the point wasn't that Gracie should be on the team this season I don't think. It was that Gracie skating like she did before this season was the only one likely to get the US three spots and without that, the chance are slim. That's what I understood anyways.

 

[chuckm]

Gracie in NO WAY will be on the World Team this year.

My point was that the three spots were won back in 2014 and maintained in 2015 and 2016 by the efforts of Gracie+Ashley.
Ashley on her own couldn't have done it. But none of Karen, Mariah or Mirai (should she substitute) have skating skills equivalent to Gracie's at the last 3 Worlds, so that third spot is gonzo.

 

[Jammers]

Actually the three spots were won back in 2013 and maintained in 2014, 2015 and 2016. And even though Gracie failed to medal when she was expected to the last couple years you could always count on her to finish in the top 5 which you can't expect from Karen, Mariah or Mirai since none of those ladies has the scoring potential of a clean or nearly clean Gracie.

 

[mrrice]

Here's the thing. It is rare that our 3rd skater truly comes into play at Worlds. IMO, we're looking at 2 spots going into next year. I have a feeling that by the time the Olympics roll around, we'll get our 3 spots back with Ashley, Polina, and a re-energized Gracie. It's unfortunate but, I really see Karen as a one hit wonder. I feel the same way about the Men. With Ricky coming back next year he will add an extra incentive for the men to step up their game. However, it is the return of Joshua (Who looks to be in good shape) that has me excited and hopeful that we will have 3 skaters going into the Olympics. I feel sorry for Jason but, My dream team is Nathan, Max, and Josh. Our big Juniors will be fine for 2022.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I have a feeling that by the time the Olympics roll around, we'll get our 3 spots back with Ashley, Polina, and a re-energized Gracie.

I'd like to be wrong, but I don't see Polina being a factor. With her time away, injuries, and her seeming to enjoy the college experience, Polina simply may not be motivated enough to regain the form needed to medal at US nationals again. Hopefully, Karen and/or Mariah can emerge from Worlds with a solid result and carry some momentum into next season.

 

[mrrice]

I'd like to be wrong, but I don't see Polina being a factor. With her time away, injuries, and her seeming to enjoy the college experience, Polina simply may not be motivated enough to regain the form needed to medal at US nationals again. Hopefully, Karen and/or Mariah can emerge from Worlds with a solid result and carry some momentum into next season.

Well, due to her coaching situation and the other skaters at her rink, I would still have Mariah Bell ahead of Karen. I haven't been completely focused on Karen but, I have only seen her skate great once and that was at Nationals. Hopefully she'll prove me wrong but, she reminds me a bit of Alissa Czisny. When she was on, she could create magic but, I never relaxed until her programs were over. Alissa did not skate well at Worlds following her first in Championship Win in 2009. She finished in 11th after a rough SP and a decent LP. Unfortunately, she was so far back following her SP that she could have skated perfectly and it wouldn't have helped.

I guess we'll all find out in a couple of weeks. I truly hope Ashley can bring it at Worlds. The pressure is certainly on her to defend her big finish from last year but, IMO, I'll be happy to see her in the final flight.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Well, due to her coaching situation and the other skaters at her rink, I would still have Mariah Bell ahead of Karen. I haven't been completely focused on Karen but, I have only seen her skate great once and that was at Nationals.

I'd be inclined to agree with you. However, neither have shown any consistency, nor is there any evidence to suggest they will be consistent in the future. Karen reminds me a bit of Adelina with her explosive, sometimes out of control jumps. Adelina was ultimately able to string together some strong events when it counted, so maybe Karen can too. If she brings it at Worlds, I think all of her disappointing results this season will be forgotten.

 

[Skater Boy]

I'd like to be wrong, but I don't see Polina being a factor. With her time away, injuries, and her seeming to enjoy the college experience, Polina simply may not be motivated enough to regain the form needed to medal at US nationals again. Hopefully, Karen and/or Mariah can emerge from Worlds with a solid result and carry some momentum into next season.

I have faith three spots will be won by the US as usual. But the odds, statistically speaking suggest Polina or Gracie will falter. Worlds will be exciting. I could see one Karen or Mariah earning fourth or even falling outside of the top 15. This world championshps in fact could be the US time to shine. A medal in each event - with a bit of luck in pairs but with really Russias top 3 teams out or injured dealing with a new baby including SK huge question marks. Duhamel and Radford faltering and the Chinese rebuilding or coming back Sk/K could do the quad twist,land their individual events and count on some errors from the Russians it could be Germany, Sui and Han and Sk/K? or osmething like that. of course SKK could end up like last year kind of a huge disappointment.

 

[SnowWhite]

I have faith three spots will be won by the US as usual. But the odds, statistically speaking suggest Polina or Gracie will falter. Worlds will be exciting. I could see one Karen or Mariah earning fourth or even falling outside of the top 15. This world championshps in fact could be the US time to shine. A medal in each event - with a bit of luck in pairs but with really Russias top 3 teams out or injured dealing with a new baby including SK huge question marks. Duhamel and Radford faltering and the Chinese rebuilding or coming back Sk/K could do the quad twist,land their individual events and count on some errors from the Russians it could be Germany, Sui and Han and Sk/K? or osmething like that. of course SKK could end up like last year kind of a huge disappointment.

I think that's sort of unlikely. SK/K are currently in 12th on the SB list. Okay fair enough, they've only had one competition. But their personal best from last season would only have them 8th, behind T/M, S/H, S/M, J/C, D/R, S/K, and S/B. S/B are questions marks since she's been hurt, so move SK/S up to 7th. That's still a fair number of people who have to mess up for them to get near the podium. T/M have had a strong last couple of competitions, D/R had no problem beating them with a not great skate at 4CC, S/H look good, S/M put up big scores at Euros with less tech content than they can do because she was still recovering and they'll probably up it for Worlds, S/K have looked solid so far, J/C cleanish are get good scores. Sure, with a great skate when the other team has a bad one, SK/K can beat a few of those teams, but are they going to beat four on the same day? And it's not like there aren't other teams who can beat SK/K either. There's no guarantee they'll put up a score around their personal best either. I/M and Y/Z (on a not great skate for them) both did at 4CC (not saying that makes them better, since SK/K had just come back, but it doesn't mean it couldn't happen again at Worlds), S/B are capable even if they're question marks.

I just think that even with a great skate, they'd need a fair amount of luck to sneak onto the podium.

I also think fourth is a possibility for Ashley, very unlikely for Karen or Mariah. Evgenia, Anna, Satoko as long as she's close to healthy, Kaetlyn, Carolina, Ashley are all but guaranteed to be ahead of them IMO, then there's Gabrielle, Maria, Mai and even Wakaba if she's healthy. Those girls are all ahead of Mariah on the SB list. She beat Gabby and Mai at SA, so yeah it could happen, but her beating seven of those girls I've named would involve her laying down a better skate than at SA and she's not that consistent. And Karen, well hopefully for her she'll prove me wrong, but I don't have a whole lot of faith in her. I could certainly see Mariah finishing 7-9, which could could 3 spots with a good placement by Ashley, so it's not that I think there's no chance of it happening, but the only US lady I see placing top six is Ashley.

 

[CoyoteChris]

Given how Gracie has skated this year, if she went to Worlds it would be just as much of a wild card in terms of what type of performance we'd get as Karen, Mariah or Mirai - the only upside to Gracie vs. other 3 is that she is more likely to get more favorable scoring for a poor performance.

From GG fan club.....there was a mistake....
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