A Case for Mirai Nagasu

[gravy]

Mirai? Don't see it.

Karen or Mariah? Maybe.

I've reversed your (il)logic. See how silly it is?

Plus, why would Mariah or Karen or their coaches bet on Mirai to secure three spots? Sorry, Mirai is inconsistent and underrotates a lot of her jumps, and her components really aren't as good either, assuming all skate clean. None of them are super likely to skate clean - but I would say Mariah and Karen have as good of a chance as Mirai does.

Can you imagine?

Raf: Mariah, you should drop out of Worlds so Mirai can help Ashley keep three spots for next year.

Mariah: You must be looking at the wrong stats that you think are Mirai'sfor you to assume she's the solution here, but sure Raf, I trust you and your obvious strategic brilliance.

Post-Worlds

Mariah: WELL THANKS RAF we are down to two spots for next year and I didn't even get my chance to fight for my own Olympic spot. But at least the Mirai fans are happy.

God, I want Mariah and/or Karen to skate well at Worlds SO BADLY. At this point for me, I care less about the three spots and more about wanting these girls to prove everyone who doubted them and came up with these, quite frankly, ridiculous and outlandish solutions, wrong wrong wrong.

Agreed. And that hypothetical scenario actually did happen last year in Canada when Liam Firus got a not so subtle nudge from Skate Canada to drop out of Worlds. He says it was on his own, but please, that was probably his only chance going to Worlds especially now with Kevin back in gear.

That remains one of the weirdest decisions to come from Canada.

 

[BravesSkateFan]

I wonder if Karen or Mariah's coach might say to their skater-look you have a lot of talent and potential but I don't see top placement for you at this Worlds. And you have a country depending on your placement at this year's World's to determine next year's Olympic placements. Are you prepared for that challenge and the tremendous pressure to not only compete on a world stage but be the destiny for a country? (a little dramatic in the scheme of world affairs, but still....) So how 'bout we cash our chips in NOW, ramp up for next season and go for one of those three spots then? It's kind of like in baseball when a team puts in a relief pitcher or designated batter, not because others are that bad, but they think this one person may have the right stuff to help them in that specific moment. I know....HIGHLY unlikely...who'd give up a World spot unless injured?

Cynthia Phaneuf did this in, I believe, 2004

Agreed. And that hypothetical scenario actually did happen last year in Canada when Liam Firus got a not so subtle nudge from Skate Canada to drop out of Worlds. He says it was on his own, but please, that was probably his only chance going to Worlds especially now with Kevin back in gear.

That remains one of the weirdest decisions to come from Canada.

Not sure if there was any nudge in Cynthia's direction or not but it's interesting how often it has happens in Canada as compared to other countries.

 

[karne]

God, I want Mariah and/or Karen to skate well at Worlds SO BADLY. At this point for me, I care less about the three spots and more about wanting these girls to prove everyone who doubted them and came up with these, quite frankly, ridiculous and outlandish solutions, wrong wrong wrong.

I'm at this point too, both with them and with Jason (although I always want everyone to skate well). I wonder how many of the posters vehemently shouting for them to get off the team are going to sheepishly crawl back in here and apologise when the three spots are kept/regained in both disciplines?

 

[Skater Boy]

Someone mentioned this elsewhere, but I thought I'd bring it up again anyway.

2015. Joshua wins silver at 4CCs. Jason is 4th. Adam is 10th.

Worlds: Jason is 4th. Adam is 8th. Joshua is 11th.

Between 4CC and Worlds people were raving about Josh being the new number 1, about Josh maybe medalling (and I was trying and failing to keep a lid on my excitement, I'll freely admit). Worlds came and he skated badly.

4CC results don't mean that that result will be replicated at Worlds. Max's 4CC last year was pretty dire. But he got rid of the plastic off his blades (or got new ones, not sure) and at Worlds he was great.

i never thought Josh was a great medal threat for worlds. Especially now with the quad thrust. A couple of good skates lead to hope but should not lead to hysteria. Jason at the time was the American push and hope.Amazingly two years later and quadless for now Jason seems rather passe or like spoiled milk. We live in a fast changing world.

 

[Moxiejan]

Yes it is. The reason that it is a bad idea is this: The USFSA tells the skaters at the beginning of the season, "If you accomplish A, B, C, and D, then you will be sent to Worlds."
Three skaters do so. Then the USFSA says, "Oh wait a minute, did I forget to mention E? ... Unless you are Ashley Wagner, in that case you don't have to do E after all."

If this is meant to describe the Ashley situation in 2014, it doesn't work. If E is supposed to represent 2014 Nationals results, it indeed was mentioned beforehand, in combination with A, B, C and D (2013 senior or junior worlds, nationals, GP medals, GPF medal). Ashley was the only one of the 3 who accomplished all of the A, B, C and D.

 

[karne]

Yes it is. The reason that it is a bad idea is this: The USFSA tells the skaters at the beginning of the season, "If you accomplish A, B, C, and D, then you will be sent to Worlds."

Three skaters do so. Then the USFSA says, "Oh wait a minute, did I forget to mention E? ... Unless you are Ashley Wagner, in that case you don't have to do E after all."

Actually, this much better describes what happened with the men in the 13-14 season. The US men were told outright that to be in Olympic consideration they needed a quad (landed in competition). Halfway through the season they changed their minds and decided they were going to push artistry instead.

 

[lovaticcanada]

At the end of the day, both Karen and Mariah earned their spot at worlds. It is unfortunate but Mirai struggled in her free skate at Nationals, which was one of the criteria to make the worlds team. The USFSA can change the rules for next year, if they want, but you are really screwing over the skaters by backtracking on that announcement, and giving it to someone else. I mean at this point, you might as well postpone Nationals to have the skate off on Monday March 6th, the deadline to submit the skaters.

We had the similar situation in Canada last year, where Liam Firus finished second, but Liam was persuaded to step aside for Nam Nguyen (4th behind Reynolds) to go, and that turned out to be a disaster.

Personally, I think the top 3 finishers at nationals should go, unless there's a specific injury/sickness (ex. Yuzuru Hanyu this year, or Seguin/Bilodeau) to someone who would be expected to earn the spot. The problem I have with the US system is that we are going to have this argument again next year for the olympics (to pick the skaters), the year before the olympics (to get 3 spots), 2 years before the olympics (to put yourself in the best position to qualify for 3 spots), and then you might as well just have 3 spots every year.

 

[Figure 8's]

I would be very angry if either Karen or Mariah were taken off the World Team and Mirai put on. That would pretty much be the end of being a Figure Skating fan for me. I go back to pre-Peggy Fleming days for being an avid fan of Figure skating. Every year I see more unfairness and pandering to a Favorite at the expense of other Skaters. I wonder if this was Gracie Gold would anyone be pushing to put her on the world team at the expense of two promising young skaters? I don't think so and when did the Four Continents become such a great competition. The best skaters in the world are not competing. Mirai has so much talent and so many opportunities to excel. The fact she never does is her own fault and no one else's.

 

[Icey]

One of the team members will mysteriously get injured or sick and Mirai will step in.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Personally, I think the top 3 finishers at nationals should go, unless there's a specific injury/sickness (ex. Yuzuru Hanyu this year, or Seguin/Bilodeau) to someone who would be expected to earn the spot. The problem I have with the US system is that we are going to have this argument again next year for the olympics (to pick the skaters), the year before the olympics (to get 3 spots), 2 years before the olympics (to put yourself in the best position to qualify for 3 spots), and then you might as well just have 3 spots every year.

What I think works about the current system that underperforming at Nationals doesn't disqualify you if you otherwise had a solid season representing the US internationally. Skaters like Ashley and Gracie come into the event with a lot more pressure and expectation (because of their strong previous results) than Karen or Mariah. If Karen, or Mariah, or Mirai had two great seasons leading up to this Nationals like Ashley did in 2014 (3 GP golds, 2 GPF medals, 5th in the world) I would be happy to see any of them on the team on the strength of their international record alone.

 

[Mathman]

If this is meant to describe the Ashley situation in 2014, it doesn't work. If E is supposed to represent 2014 Nationals results, it indeed was mentioned beforehand, in combination with A, B, C and D (2013 senior or junior worlds, nationals, GP medals, GPF medal). Ashley was the only one of the 3 who accomplished all of the A, B, C and D.

No, my post had nothing to do with 2014 or any other year. It has to do with specifying the criteria clearly and then honoring your word even if you might feel like second guessing yourself if it doesn't work out the way you hoped.

 

[Mathman]

Actually, this much better describes what happened with the men in the 13-14 season. The US men were told outright that to be in Olympic consideration they needed a quad (landed in competition). Halfway through the season they changed their minds and decided they were going to push artistry instead.

I don't believe it. I have never, ever read any official publication of the USFSA that listed such a requirement.

 

[demitasse]

If this is meant to describe the Ashley situation in 2014, it doesn't work. If E is supposed to represent 2014 Nationals results, it indeed was mentioned beforehand, in combination with A, B, C and D (2013 senior or junior worlds, nationals, GP medals, GPF medal). Ashley was the only one of the 3 who accomplished all of the A, B, C and D.

I rather thought that this was meant to describe what some are proposing should have happened this year, where E represents 4CC. Suddenly deciding to use 4CC as a skate-off for just Mirai, Mariah, and Karen after the fact presumes that Ashley alone would still be confirmed for the team without having to do that particular event, given that no one is arguing about her spot.

But perhaps Mathman can clarify?

 

[Mathman]

^ That's what I had in mind. Thank you.

And more generally, do what you promise to do. Love of medals is the root of all evil.

 

[karne]

I don't believe it. I have never, ever read any official publication of the USFSA that listed such a requirement.

Kori mentioned it in an interview during that season, that they had not been planning for Jason to go to the Olympics because they had been told that only men with consistent quads would be considered, and she didn't believe the US had two men that met that requirement.

 

[Mathman]

Well, who are you going to believe, me or Kori Ade?

It seems like it should be so easy for the USFSA (or any other). You out on a competition and judge it fairly. What happens happens. Leave the Machiavellian intrigue to the Machiavellis. Save your own soul.

No wonder no one cares about figure skating in the U.S.any more. (But go Shibs!)

 

[Moxiejan]

No, my post had nothing to do with 2014 or any other year. It has to do with specifying the criteria clearly and then honoring your word even if you might feel like second guessing yourself if it doesn't work out the way you hoped.

Then why did you specifically mention Ashley Wagner?

Eta: I just saw that you were referring to a possible 4CC skateoff that did not include Ashley.
Actually, that would have made sense under the previous criteria, based on her Worlds silver medal,
GP gold and 2017 nationals silver.

 

[Mathman]

Then why did you specifically mrntion Ashley Wagner?

Because the discussion is around whether Karen, Mariah and Mirai ought to go on from U.S. Nationals to a 4CC skateoff.. But Wagner, no. To me, people are arguing about persons rather than considering the principle of the thing.

Anyway, that's enough for me. The USFSA will do what it wants without consulting my opinion. This is a heck of a way to run a railroad, that's all.

 

[Mathman]

I just saw your edit. Oh well. I hope it all works out for the best.

 

[Figure 8's]

I rather thought that this was meant to describe what some are proposing should have happened this year, where E represents 4CC. Suddenly deciding to use 4CC as a skate-off for just Mirai, Mariah, and Karen after the fact presumes that Ashley alone would still be confirmed for the team without having to do that particular event, given that no one is arguing about her spot.

But perhaps Mathman can clarify?

They had a skate off and it is called Nationals.