A Case for Mirai Nagasu

[KweenAsada]

We Mirai fans need to be real. If she had went to Four Continents as a National medalist of any color and bombed, we would be ready to riot at the THOUGHT of her being removed. Her being placed on the team isn't fair even if I would like to see it happen. She can try again next season.

 

[NanaPat]

I don't see that the cheap shots at Canadians enhance your article at all. You may think that an American audience will accept them without question, but to me they are really jarring. Who says that Marai was robbed of silver? If her real medal isn't enough argument for putting her on the team, then awarding her a theoretical one, based on unsubstantiated assertion, then arguing that THAT medal justifies her inclusion on the team is really weak.

Similary, you similarly, assert that the "overscoring" of the Canadian ladies justifies having Mariah on the team instead of the others. If they're overscored (which I believe you've asserted without any evidence whatsoever), they're overscored whoever they're skating against, and it doesn't depend on who is on the US team nor should it influence who is on the US team.

The main obstacle to the US ladies earning 3 world spots for next year is the large number of potentially high-scoring ladies from other countries: the Russians, the Japanese, Carolina Kostner, etc, as well as the Canadians. And those skaters are going to do whatever they do at worlds, independent of the makeup of the US team. If you want to make an argument for Marai or the team, you have to make an argument that she has a better chance of beating those ladies than some of the current US team members. Whether Satoko pre-rotates, or Medvedeva does too many tanos, or whatever, is totally irrelevant to your argument.

In other words, if you're talking about the US team, stick to talking about the US team.

 

[NanaPat]

No, my post had nothing to do with 2014 or any other year. It has to do with specifying the criteria clearly and then honoring your word even if you might feel like second guessing yourself if it doesn't work out the way you hoped.

Canada replaced somebody last year on their worlds team (Liam Firus with Nam Nguyen). Supposedly Liam (though healthy), withdrew. There were suspicions that he was pressured, and it didn't reflect well on anybody. Or help in any way in achieving the desired goal.

 

[chuckm]

I don't see that the cheap shots at Canadians enhance your article at all. You may think that an American audience will accept them without question, but to me they are really jarring. Who says that Marai was robbed of silver? If her real medal isn't enough argument for putting her on the team, then awarding her a theoretical one, based on unsubstantiated assertion, then arguing that THAT medal justifies her inclusion on the team is really weak.

Similary, you similarly, assert that the "overscoring" of the Canadian ladies justifies having Mariah on the team instead of the others. If they're overscored (which I believe you've asserted without any evidence whatsoever), they're overscored whoever they're skating against, and it doesn't depend on who is on the US team nor should it influence who is on the US team.

The main obstacle to the US ladies earning 3 world spots for next year is the large number of potentially high-scoring ladies from other countries: the Russians, the Japanese, Carolina Kostner, etc, as well as the Canadians. And those skaters are going to do whatever they do at worlds, independent of the makeup of the US team. If you want to make an argument for Marai or the team, you have to make an argument that she has a better chance of beating those ladies than some of the current US team members. Whether Satoko pre-rotates, or Medvedeva does too many tanos, or whatever, is totally irrelevant to your argument.

In other words, if you're talking about the US team, stick to talking about the US team.

If you are going to talk about the US skaters, how about spelling MIRAI's name correctly?

No, I don't think Mirai was robbed of silver. Because Mirai underrotated the 3lo in the SP, she was nearly 6 points behind Gabby going into the FS, and she beat Gabby in the FS by less than 4 points.

 

[Hevari]

I don't think so and when did the Four Continents become such a great competition. The best skaters in the world are not competing.

Man, you wrong... 4CC is much much more competitive than EC because four of there five top figure skating nations compete there. Three japanese girls, three americans, three canadians, Tursynbaeva, Li Zijun - all of them can make a podium... Isn't it a great competition?

 

[SnowWhite]

The US skaters must skate good SPs so that they can skate in the later LP groups, who tend to earn higher marks simply on advantageous skate order. The Canadians, two of the Russians, Satoko, and Caro are very good SP skaters so it's conceivable that no Americans could be in the last group for the LP. I think a big reason why Karen gets held back internationally is because she takes herself out of contention after the short and isn't viewed as a top contender.

This comment got me thinking, so I took a look at the SBs for the short program.

1 79.21 Evgenia MEDVEDEVA RUS
2 75.54 Kaetlyn OSMOND CAN
3 74.64 Satoko MIYAHARA JPN
4 74.39 Anna POGORILAYA RUS
5 73.40 Mirai NAGASU USA
6 72.70 Gabrielle DALEMAN CAN
7 72.40 Carolina KOSTNER ITA
8 72.17 Maria SOTSKOVA RUS
9 71.93 Elena RADIONOVA RUS
10 70.92 Alina ZAGITOVA RUS

Mirai's score came at the Autumn Classic, not a GP and Radionova's came in Russia (since I know some people like to look at that).
Taking out the skaters who won't be at worlds, you get:

1 79.21 Evgenia MEDVEDEVA RUS
2 75.54 Kaetlyn OSMOND CAN
3 74.64 Satoko MIYAHARA JPN
4 74.39 Anna POGORILAYA RUS
5 72.70 Gabrielle DALEMAN CAN
6 72.40 Carolina KOSTNER ITA
7 72.17 Maria SOTSKOVA RUS
8 69.50 Ashley WAGNER USA (11th on the original list)
9 68.48 Mai MIHARA JPN (14th)
10 66.87 Elizabet TURSYNBAEVA KAZ (16th)

Ashley's score came at SA, which is not me saying she didn't deserve it.

Mariah is 38th on the list without removing skaters who won't be at worlds. If I counted right, 23 girls ahead of her on SP scores won't be at Worlds, which would make her score 15th. Karen's score is 50th without taking anyone off, and I counted another 9 between her and Mariah who won't go, making her score 18th. I'm not saying this is how things will turn out, but I was interested since groups for the LP were being discussed.

Yes it is. The reason that it is a bad idea is this: The USFSA tells the skaters at the beginning of the season, "If you accomplish A, B, C, and D, then you will be sent to Worlds."

Three skaters do so. Then the USFSA says, "Oh wait a minute, did I forget to mention E? ... Unless you are Ashley Wagner, in that case you don't have to do E after all."

U.S. Nationals used to be a skate-off among all competitors for worlds spots. Now the proposal seems to be, "If the right skaters win the skate-off, then they g to Worlds. But if the wrong skaters win the skate-off, then we will have a, er, um, skate-off to see who gets to go." I presume that if the wrong skater wins 4 continents, then they will squeeze ia state-off betwee 4 continents and worlds to decide who really, really, really gets to go to Worlds.

Then after that final skate-off, the head of the federation gets to decide which skater he likes the best, never mind the results of all those skate-offs. "Don't like my whimsical choice? Sue me."

Yes, this how it is done in other countries. We should do better. (IMHO )

I think it would be fine to say at the beginning of the season that results at 4CC can be taken into account when the decision is unclear (obviously this is irrelevant for next season though). Hypothetical situation: There are three spots. the champion at Nats had a decent season internationally and the second place lady had a strong season and is an obvious pick. The third and fourth place ladies had very close national scores and fairly comparable results leading up to Nats. In a case like that, having a final skate off at 4CC could make sense, provided that was established ahead of time. I don't think the team will or should be changed this year though.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I think it would be fine to say at the beginning of the season that results at 4CC can be taken into account when the decision is unclear (obviously this is irrelevant for next season though). Hypothetical situation: There are three spots. the champion at Nats had a decent season internationally and the second place lady had a strong season and is an obvious pick. The third and fourth place ladies had very close national scores and fairly comparable results leading up to Nats. In a case like that, having a final skate off at 4CC could make sense, provided that was established ahead of time. I don't think the team will or should be changed this year though.

I think this would over complicate the selection process. The reason is because you would then have to have two tiers of selection: one tier for those who qualify at nationals based on results up to that point, and then another tier for those who don't qualify at nationals and need to do so at 4CC. Karen won nationals, Ashley has been our top woman (or at least top 2) for 5 years running, and IIRC Mariah was the only other American woman to medal on the GP. You would then have coaches lobbying to have the skater in the first tier so the spot could be finalized, and skaters would probably be more inclined to skip 4CC with injury so that they wouldn't risk a bad performance there. For example, if we had two spots and Karen skipped 4CC with illness, would we bump the National champ based on Mirai's 4CC bronze (an event where none of the top 7 from previous worlds participated)?

 

[Mirunna]

Man, you wrong... 4CC is much much more competitive than EC because four of there five top figure skating nations compete there. Three japanese girls, three americans, three canadians, Tursynbaeva, Li Zijun - all of them can make a podium... Isn't it a great competition?

4CC mai be more exciting in the ladies event than the Europeans because it is a more open competition. However, please note that Mai would have been fourth at Europeans with the score she got at 4CC.

 

[slider11]

Mirai? Don't see it.

Karen or Mariah? Maybe.

I've reversed your (il)logic. See how silly it is?

Plus, why would Mariah or Karen or their coaches bet on Mirai to secure three spots? Sorry, Mirai is inconsistent and underrotates a lot of her jumps, and her components really aren't as good either, assuming all skate clean. None of them are super likely to skate clean - but I would say Mariah and Karen have as good of a chance as Mirai does.

Can you imagine?

Raf: Mariah, you should drop out of Worlds so Mirai can help Ashley keep three spots for next year.

Mariah: You must be looking at the wrong stats that you think are Mirai'sfor you to assume she's the solution here, but sure Raf, I trust you and your obvious strategic brilliance.

Post-Worlds

Mariah: WELL THANKS RAF we are down to two spots for next year and I didn't even get my chance to fight for my own Olympic spot. But at least the Mirai fans are happy.

God, I want Mariah and/or Karen to skate well at Worlds SO BADLY. At this point for me, I care less about the three spots and more about wanting these girls to prove everyone who doubted them and came up with these, quite frankly, ridiculous and outlandish solutions, wrong wrong wrong.

I wish no ill-will to Karen or Mariah. I just don't think they are ready for this right now. You may not but I DO care about having three spots for next year's Olympics because it will give three, not two, USA ladies a chance to have their dream. It's strategy over personal preferences/ego. I agree that it is unlikely to happen and so I, too, want BADLY for Mariah and Karen to skate well at Worlds.

 

[Hevari]

4CC mai be more exciting in the ladies event than the Europeans because it is a more open competition. However, please note that Mai would have been fourth at Europeans with the score she got at 4CC.

So what? Competitiveness is not about scores themselves bat about how many skaters can make a podium. 3-4 on EC vs 9-11 on 4CC...

It's kinda like "Formula 1 vs. IndyCar - what's better" debates...

 

[NanaPat]

If you are going to talk about the US skaters, how about spelling MIRAI's name correctly?

No, I don't think Mirai was robbed of silver. Because Mirai underrotated the 3lo in the SP, she was nearly 6 points behind Gabby going into the FS, and she beat Gabby in the FS by less than 4 points.

Sorry about the spelling error. I was so concerned about getting the end of the name correct that I messed up the beginning.

I wasn't really addressing the US team, not I was addressing you or your posts. I was addressing the original essay, in the first post, that said Mirai was was robbed of silver, and later that the Canadian ladies were overscored. I was trying to make the point that including irrelevant, unsubstantiated assertions, weakens the arguments in the essay.

The original poster wanted feedback on the essay, and I was giving it to him/her.

 

[chuckm]

I do think Kaetlyn was overscored just a bit, in PCS. 7.68 PE was too high considering the 3 falls, and the CH and IN scores should have been closer to 8.00. Kaetlyn tried her best to sustain the character of the piece during and after the falls, but she got so far behind the music that her miming was out of sync and so lacked her usual impact.

 

[narcissa]

Having only 2 spots next year will be heartbreaking. We already knew how heartbreaking 2014 was :sad4:

 

[Osmond4gold]

Yes, it will be heartbreaking for any of the top 4 countries. This is a difficult year. Certainly Gracie is a Top 5 contender in any other year, but in her absence, I am not sure if the US has the bench strength to achieve this. As for Canadians, we need both our women to pull it together, same with Japan, esp. if Satoko is injured. Regardless, there will be tears.

 

[narcissa]

So I change my mind and think it should be Mirai, Gracie, and Ashley. And tell Gracie you better bring it to Worlds or you might be off the team next year. Period. That would motivate her...

It's too late now.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

Yes, it will be heartbreaking for any of the top 4. This is a difficult year. Certainly Gracie is a Top 5 contender in any other year, but in her absence, I am not sure if the US has the bench strength to achieve this. As for Canadians, we need both our women to pull it together, same with Japan, esp. if Satoko is injured. Regardless, there will be tears.

It's conceivable that only Russia ends up with 3 spots: If the Russians, Caro and Satoko take the top 5 spots, and the other Japanese women finish outside the top 10 or so, another country has to take 6th and 7th to get three spots. Obviously that is one of many possible scenarios, but it shows how dependent the other countries are on Maria S to have a weaker performance in order to get three Olympic places. If you can have 2 skaters finish ahead of Maria, that reduces your combined placement by two (i.e. 15 to 13).

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

So I change my mind and think it should be Mirai, Gracie, and Ashley. And tell Gracie you better bring it to Worlds or you might be off the team next year. Period. That would motivate her...

I think Gracie is very happy to put this season behind her.

For Mirai, 2017 4CC is a Tier 2 event for Olympic team consideration, on par with next season's GP series events, and she did well. She has already positioned herself as a contender for a spot.

 

[Mathman]

I think it would be fine to say at the beginning of the season that results at 4CC can be taken into account when the decision is unclear...

I wouldn't really be against this. But, to me, it still presents the same problem. Who is it who gets to decide that the situation is "unclear," and upon what objective criteria -- settled on before the season begins -- will trigger an "unclear" versus a "clear" situation?

 

[AC96]

Who says that Marai was robbed of silver?
...

Similary, you similarly, assert that the "overscoring" of the Canadian ladies justifies having Mariah on the team instead of the others. If they're overscored (which I believe you've asserted without any evidence whatsoever), they're overscored whoever they're skating against, and it doesn't depend on who is on the US team nor should it influence who is on the US team.

With all due respect, you seem to have misunderstood the piece. I never stated that the Canadian ladies performances/scores should have any sort of impact on the US team outright. My point was that the Canadian ladies' scores seem to be surging upward, this season in particular, which will make keeping 3 spots all the more difficult (in combination with the strength of all the other women in the field). Mirai will be more likely to make top 10 then Chen or Bell will, and will be the better choice because of that. The two points are independent; I feel Mirai should be on the team regardless of the Canadian ladies, and the Canadian ladies are overscored even if there was no US team debate.

Secondly, yes, Mirai was absolutely deserving of the silver medal (though I've since removed it from the article for brevity). Over the competition, Mirai had a serious error on an underrotated loop in the short and weak performance/expression quality; Daleman had a botched spin, a popped loop, a serious error on her double axel, and loss of control on her lutz in the short (not to mention I don't think her artistic performance was that strong, either). It's pretty obvious that Daleman scoring close to 130 for that performance is absurd.

 

[Osmond4gold]

It's conceivable that only Russia ends up with 3 spots: If the Russians, Caro and Satoko take the top 5 spots, and the other Japanese women finish outside the top 10 or so, another country has to take 6th and 7th to get three spots. Obviously that is one of many possible scenarios, but it shows how dependent the other countries are on Maria S to have a weaker performance in order to get three Olympic places. If you can have 2 skaters finish ahead of Maria, that reduces your combined placement by two (i.e. 15 to 13).

If Miss Beige gives her usual performance I...,I ...don't thi..th...n..k,...zzzz, sorry, I fell asleep, (where was I) yes, ...this could be a problem, in some wazzz.