Adian Pitkeev

[Sandpiper]

Yeah, I don't expect Adian to win gold, but he's the only returning medalist of those 3, so hopefully that will work in his favor. I'd like him to get silver at least. Just depends which Boyang shows up that day. And I also want Sasha to do well, but I really doubt they will let 2 Russian guys on the podium.

I don't think a Shoma-Adian-Sasha podium is unrealistic. Boyang can have huge hits but also huge bombs. I don't know what Nathan Chen's form will be. And if Adian and Sasha go clean, they could beat Sota, with or without quads.

Lakernik's comments still bother me. He seems to be pushing the Russian guys too fast, too hard, with all this talk about quads. I get that the quad is important, but coaches won't shouldn't it at the expense of their future career. Adian and Sasha have both been ill lately. It seems foolhardy to try quads in competition regardless of their condition.

 

[adelia]

Well Shoma already got 83 PCS at 4CC so I'm afraid that Adian might have to land 2 quads and 8 triples clean to win. Not to mention Shoma can even get 2.29 GOE for his low 3A (which makes me baffled btw).
Boyang has 3 quads and crazy BV but his consistency is questionable. But if he skates like he did at Chinese Nationals it's gonna be tough.
Sota Yamamoto might be another factor, since he had a quad in practice and his 3A has become more stable (his presentation is kind of like Adian, a bit introvert). But seriously I'd rather watch Adian than Sota's stone face.
Not to mention Sasha Petrov, but will he land the quad there? If he won't medal maybe he will have to stay junior next season I'm afraid.
I'd say Adian has better chance than Sasha if he's healthy. He can win against a meltdown Boyang (but I doubt Boyang would make the same mistakes at JGPF). But against Shoma? I'm afraid it's extremely difficult, especially wih that huge PCS and GOE buffer.

There is no way Petrov is staying junior next season, medal or not. Unless Mishin lied about it. In fact I think Samarin will join the seniors next season too, but that is another story altogether.

Regarding JWs... the favourites for a podium finish (who I think ISU wants to win), in descending order:
1. Mini Dai - all the signs are there, if he skates clean or cleanish, he will win gold. PCS alone will give him a whole jump (and probably more) advantage over the lesser mortals.
2. Mini Plush/Yags - Adian should win silver here and if Shoma makes a mistake, he will win gold. That's assuming he doesn't mess up himself. Rus Fed traded Sasha's JGPF position for a guaranteed medal at some event and perhaps (my guess only) it is this.
3. Mini Yuzuru/Boyang - If Boyang is completely clean with his 3 quad LP, he will take gold but when was the last time Boyang had 2 consecutive clean/cleanish skates? I think if there are going to be 2 men from the same country on the podium, it will be two Japanese men.
5. Sasha Petrov/Nathan Chen - Nathan says he has the quad. But the quad is probably not his main problem, it's his 3A and lack of competition experience this season. Barring some disaster for at least 2 out of the 4 men ahead of him, Sasha probably won't medal, even if he lands a quad. But, stranger things have happened.

 

[Meoima]

There is no way Petrov is staying junior next season, medal or not. Unless Mishin lied about it. In fact I think Samarin will join the seniors next season too, but that is another story altogether.

Regarding JWs... the favourites for a podium finish (who I think ISU wants to win), in descending order:
1. Mini Dai - all the signs are there, if he skates clean or cleanish, he will win gold. PCS alone will give him a whole jump (and probably more) advantage over the lesser mortals.
2. Mini Plush/Yags - Adian should win silver here and if Shoma makes a mistake, he will win gold. That's assuming he doesn't mess up himself. Rus Fed traded Sasha's JGPF position for a guaranteed medal at some event and perhaps (my guess only) it is this.
3. Mini Yuzuru/Boyang - If Boyang is completely clean with his 3 quad LP, he will take gold but when was the last time Boyang had 2 consecutive clean/cleanish skates? I think if there are going to be 2 men from the same country on the podium, it will be two Japanese men.
5. Sasha Petrov/Nathan Chen - Nathan says he has the quad. But the quad is probably not his main problem, it's his 3A and lack of competition experience this season. Barring some disaster for at least 2 out of the 4 men ahead of him, Sasha probably won't medal, even if he lands a quad. But, stranger things have happened.

PCS wise I have no say because it's subjective. But heck, my dream podium is: Adian, Sasha and Boyang/Nathan Chen. Because they actually land jumps that should be rewarded GOE.
Oh but I know my dream is just a dream.

 

[silverfoxes]

It's interesting to look at the scores from last year. Nam won with 217.06, Shoma and Boyang placed 5th and 6th behind Sasha. I can't remember how many men tried quads (& I'm too lazy to look it up). It's going to be a pretty strong competition this year, I think. In some ways it's more interesting to me than the seniors...maybe because the young ones haven't been around long enough to destroy my hopes and dreams yet.

 

[Meoima]

It's interesting to look at the scores from last year. Nam won with 217.06, Shoma and Boyang placed 5th and 6th behind Sasha. I can't remember how many men tried quads (& I'm too lazy to look it up). It's going to be a pretty strong competition this year, I think. In some ways it's more interesting to me than the seniors...maybe because the young ones haven't been around long enough to destroy my hopes and dreams yet.

To be frankly I think quad should not be allowed in the Junior.

 

[HanDomi]

To be frankly I think quad should not be allowed in the Junior.

Because ?

 

[Meoima]

Because ?

Because many skaters who have competed in senior also come back, and when they come back with quad, GOE and PCS of senior world, is that fair for most juniors?
And not to mention for he potential injuries for young skaters who might not grow fully.

 

[shiroKJ]

Because many skaters who have competed in senior also come back, and when they come back with quad, GOE and PCS of senior world, is that fair for most juniors?
And not to mention for he potential injuries for young skaters who might not grow fully.

I'm with Meoima on this one. With the expection of Nationals, I don't think its fair when skaters hop back and forth between Jr's and Sr's in major ISU compeitions.

 

[HanDomi]

Because many skaters who have competed in senior also come back, and when they come back with quad, GOE and PCS of senior world, is that fair for most juniors?
And not to mention for he potential injuries for young skaters who might not grow fully.

Regarding scores I agree, but it's not quad fault. And all this juniors practice quads every day to be honest, so 1-2 more attempts in competition doesn't change too much

 

[Meoima]

Regarding scores I agree, but it's not quad fault. And all this juniors practice quads every day to be honest, so 1-2 more attempts in competition doesn't change too much

The point is the quad race has led to all these quad attempts in the younger juniors. Those who already competed in the senior circle have the quad already, when they come back to junior with the quad and win, the younger juniors also have to push themselves to compete against them as well.

 

[adelia]

I'm with Meoima on this one. With the expection of Nationals, I don't think its fair when skaters hop back and forth between Jr's and Sr's in major ISU compeitions.

This is a loophole that needs to be closed. Unfortunately I don't think anything will be done about it because all federations would like to benefit from it.

 

[Meoima]

This is a loophole that needs to be closed. Unfortunately I don't think anything will be done about it because all federations would like to benefit from it.

I'm think maybe there should be some limit for the junior, like skaters who have scored over a certain point barrier (like over 240) are not allowed to come back to junior.

For example don't you think it's utterly ridiculous if last year JSF had sent Yuzuru to JW to keep spots for them (since he was still age eligible for JW last year).

And this year Chinese Fed has just assigned Yu/Jin pair to Junior World even though they have been competing in the senior circle the whole season and even get into GPF. That is unfair for other junior pairs.

 

[adelia]

I'm think maybe there should be some limit for the junior, like skaters who have scored over a certain point barrier (like over 240) are not allowed to come back to junior.

For example don't you think it's utterly ridiculous if last year JSF had sent Yuzuru to JW to keep spots for them (since he was still age eligible for JW last year).

And this year Chinese Fed has just assigned Yu/Jin pair to Junior World even though they have been competing in the senior circle the whole season and even get into GPF. That is unfair for other junior pairs.

I think a points limit will be difficult to enforce. I mean, what's the difference between 239 and 240? Perhaps they could change the rule such that skaters who have participated in the senior GP series not be allowed to return to any junior competitions. Currently, if you participate in the senior GP series, you can't take part in the JGP series. I think they should extend that to JWs too.

Yeah, it is ridiculous that high level seniors are taking part in Junior Worlds. Might as well call it "World Championships for 13-18 year olds" since you have a bunch of seniors skating in it too.

 

[Meoima]

I think a points limit will be difficult to enforce. I mean, what's the difference between 239 and 240? Perhaps they could change the rule such that skaters who have participated in the senior GP series not be allowed to return to any junior competitions. Currently, if you participate in the senior GP series, you can't take part in the JGP series. I think they should extend that to JWs too.
Yeah, it is ridiculous that high level seniors are taking part in Junior Worlds. Might as well call it "World Championships for 13-18 year olds" since you have a bunch of seniors skating in it too.

Maybe it should be like this: if you have taken part in any senior A competitions such as GP, Euro, 4CC, Wc... you are not allowed come back to junior. So skaters from smaller feds can still compete at senior B to get points and go back to junior for more experience.

 

[adelia]

Maybe it should be like this: if you have taken part in any senior A competitions such as GP, Euro, 4CC, Wc... you are not allowed come back to junior. So skaters from smaller feds can still compete at senior B to get points and go back to junior for more experience.

Yeah, that would make sense.

 

[Meoima]

Yeah, that would make sense.

And yes, with that rule, juniors should not be allowed to do quads. One reason is for their growing bodies.

 

[shiroKJ]

I think if they're able to quads then they should be allowed to, but maybe limit the amount permitted. And i agree with limiting Jrs attending Senior A compeitions then going back to Jrs.

 

[adelia]

And yes, with that rule, juniors should not be allowed to do quads. One reason is for their growing bodies.

I'm on the fence with this. The other one quite obviously is the sensible thing to do but this one I think can be argued both ways.

 

[silverfoxes]

Not to get too far OT, but it definitely raised my eyebrows when I saw Jin Seo Kim is competing at JW...he's already competed at senior worlds twice (but never juniors). But as long as there are loopholes in the rules I guess people will take advantage. About quads, I can see both sides of the coin like adelia. If it's the norm for 15-year-olds to be doing them in practice then I get why they would want to try them here, and of course we have 20something seniors without them, which is fine...but the lines between junior vs senior, esp. for the men, are very blurry these days. Maybe this would be a good topic for The Edge?

 

[betat]

Maybe it should be like this: if you have taken part in any senior A competitions such as GP, Euro, 4CC, Wc... you are not allowed come back to junior. So skaters from smaller feds can still compete at senior B to get points and go back to junior for more experience.

That would be something worth trying.
I'm a little concern that it might hurt countries with less skaters, but it's impossible to create a perfect system.
Not so sure about banning the quad. Everyone grows in a different way and also couple people I know got injured practicing the axel but doesn't mean they should ban the jump. It's just something that happens.