I have two theories:
1. like you said, her short program was so disastrous there was no chance she could medal unless everyone else bombed. They scored her high enough to let her medal if everyone skated really badly, but everyone else skated fine.
2. The Japanese aren't the type to complain much about not being favored. The Japanese will love figure skating regardless of it anyone Japanese medalled. Also, Hanyu had already won gold so Japan had its share of figure skating glory at Sochi
@Mathman components are not "skating with caution." That is your psychological projection.
Well, here's what I think. When it comes to figure skating judging, there are two separate worlds. The real world, and the fantasy world populated by folks who take the published rules of the IJS and ISU documents as an infallible guide. People in the fantasy world delight in doing technical and statistical analyses to prove that figure skating judges are not actually operating in the fantasy world. No, they are not. They are judging in the real world.
In the real world, no set of rules, however detailed, tells the whole story. There are always unstated "rules behind the rules" involving tradition, history, interpretation, context, and even politics that color the black-and-white text.
Here is an example. Both Julia Lipnitskaia and Adelina Sotnikova zoomed up the latter in terms of program component scores coming into Sochi. In the fantasy world -- the world where we go strictly by the published rules of the CoP -- this would not be possible.
But one of the unwritten rules in the real world (which every skater and coach knows) is that to get high program scores a skater must first work her way up the reputation ladder by delivering a series of convincing programs over several competitions. Is this "right"? Well, it's real. Lipnitskaia really did improve rapidly during the 2013 and delivered the goods in a consistent way, and by the end of the season the judges were prepared to score her higher than in the past for the same quality performance. As for Sotnikova, she lacked only consistency. The judges were prepared to boost her scores for a performance with few errors.
Please don't shoot the messenger. I am not saying this is a good thing. I just think it is far too facile an interpretation of events to say "conspiracy" and let it go at that. The true situation is always more complicated than can be distilled down to a single word.
But I must disagree on your assessment of Mao's free skate. She made me a fan that night. She may not have skated with the same fire as, say, Adelina (give the girl some due--whether you think she deserved her placement or not, she did skate like she wanted that OGM), but she skated with a different type of abandon. She skated like she carried all the emotions of the world within her, and instead of being crushed under the weight, she channeled them--right until the last moment, when she burst into tears.
It's possible. But I wasn't a Mao fan before that night. She made me a fan. So I'm pretty much in the same boat as Meoima, except I liked the performance even more (I assume, since I turned into a fan). Trust me, before that LP I was completely on Team Yuna. I wasn't really all that heartbroken on the day of the SP; I was heartbroken after the fact, when the LP showed me what Mao could really do.But don't you think that part of that reactions was that we already knew that she was carrying all the emotions of the world within her, and that we were hoping and praying with all our hearts that somehow a miracle would happen and she would rise above their crushing weight?
(Meoima' experience was different, though. Meoima basically had no hopes or expectations, but was still enchanted. So maybe I don't know what I am talking about.)
I would love to stop discussing her here but I more so just want you to stop slandering her and making things bend in a way that is unfair and untrue.
I would love to stop discussing her here
This is the most dishonest thing I've ever read on GoldenSkate.
Mathman, you are slowly and diplomatically inching towards the logical conclusions. For all of the hard statistical analysis that you and others have done, and all of the levels analysis that people like BoP have done, none of it matters because the numbers are all made up and goal-seeked at the end. The evidence is visible across all areas of the judging and scoring: technical calls on jumps, levels, GOEs, and PCS.
-----
Technical calls on jumps:
There seems to be a group of people in the figure skating community who accept cheating and believe it is a part of the sport. They are OK with political competitions, and will come out after the fact and defend results with cherry picked arguments. In the case of Sochi Ladies 2014, they were often quoted after the competition as saying Sotnikova did 7 triples, and Yuna Kim did 6, and so Sotnikova deserved to win.
The problem with this argument is that Sotnikova did not actually do 7 triples. The technical panel committed fraud by giving her credit for a triple instead of the double she actually did. They created another fraud when they did not give her an edge call, which would have deducted further points from her score. Meanwhile, Mao Asada did a historic 8(!) triples, but the technical panel was quick to ding her for downgrades.
In this case, it did not matter how many triples the skaters did on the ice. A skater could do 8 triples and arbitrarily be given credit for 6, or they could do 6 and arbitrarily be given credit for 7. What kind of sport is this?
Scoring bias: in favor of Sotnikova
-----
Levels:
One can go back and look at the step sequence levels the skaters have received in the past. The mode for Sotnikova is Level 3, and the mode for Yuna Kim is level 4. All other things being equal, an observer would expect the most likely score either of these skaters would receive at a competition would be Sotnikova-3 and Kim-4. However, these are not gift scores, the skaters must earn them, and they can vary from competition to competition. But, when the Levels come out reversed, with Sotnikova earning a 4, and Kim earning a 3, eyebrows are at least raised and we have to go back and look to see how the skaters deviated from their norm.
BoP and others did just that, and the extra scrutiny tells a different story than the one the judges gave. No, Sotnikova did not outperform her usual abilities on this day, and no, Yuna Kim was not uncharacteristically sloppy. Careful analysis shows that Adelina Sotnikova should have received her usual Level 3 Step Sequence score, and Yuna Kim should have received her usual Level 4 Step Sequence score.
Instead, the scores were arbitrarily reversed, further aiding the Russian's cause.
scoring bias: in favor of Sotnikova
-----
Grades of Execution:
Sotnikova received the highest GOEs of any skater in the competition, including the most number of +3 scores. Her defenders (or defenders of the results) will argue that, as the winner, it makes sense she would have the highest GOE scores. However, it's strikingly curious that the skater who received the second highest GOEs in the competition was the other Russian skater, Lipnitskaia, who was actually quite terrible and skated embarrassingly bad during the individual event. Together, the two Russian girls received nearly two-thirds of all +3s handed out in the entire competition. Lipnitskaia (5th place) herself received more +3s than Yuna Kim (2nd) and Carolina Kostner (3rd) combined.
Further, one judge specifically gave Sotnikova +3 on every single element except for her double footed step-out, which was still graded +2.
A judge also gave Yuna Kim mostly +1 on all elements...same judge perhaps? We may never know thanks to ISU's anonymous judging policy, but there was one judge on the panel convicted of trying to rig the 1998 Olympics, and another Russian judge on the panel married to one of the most powerful people in Russian Skating Federation.
scoring bias: in favor of both Russian girls (including Sotnikova)
-----
PCS scores
Adelina Sotnikova's senior international PCS scores (free skate), prior to being named to Russian 2014 Olympic Team:
56, 59, 55, 63, 60, 59, 60, 64, 60
Just a few weeks prior to the Olympics (as of January 2014), she had received ~64 at her very best (twice), with her average +/- 60, including her most recent competition.
Over numerous competitions through multiple seasons, Adelina Sotnikova had demonstrated skating abilities consistent with second rate components scores, when compared to the best of the very best, like Yuna Kim and Carolina Kostner, etc. But after Russian Nationals and her spot on the Olympic Team, in order to "prep" her score for the Olympics, she suddenly received 69.6 (with mistakes) at Euros, and 74.41 at Olympics, which is the 2nd highest PCS score of all time.
Julia Lipnitskaia's senior international PCS scores (free skate), prior to being named to Russian 2014 Olympic Team:
59, 60, 63, 60
That is a remarkably consistent score throughout the Olympic season; however, in the final weeks leading up to the Olympics, her PCS score magically shot up to:
68 at Euros, 69.82 at Olympics Team Event, and 70.06 at Olympics individual
Compare these inflationary increases to Yuna Kim and Carolina Kostner and their senior international (free skate) PCS scores during the same time...
Yuna Kim:
70, 73, 71 ... 74.5 @ Olympics
Carolina Kostner:
70, 70, 70, 65, 68, 71 ... 73.77 at Olympics
While Yuna Kim and Carolina Kostner may have received the tiniest of bumps to their scores, they were already scoring @ 70+ and in Kim's case, higher.
The Russian girls however were consistently scoring around 60 (or 64 when Sotnikova was at her very best) and rather than a similar modest "Olympics bump", what ... their scores increase by 10 points overnight? How can someone close a 10 point PCS gap and make it to world record territory overnight, unless the judges are intent to make it happen, regardless of the skater's ability on the ice?
At their previous "very best", Yuna Kim had a 9 point PCS advantage over Adelina Sotnikova, which is a night and day margin. At Sochi, both skaters received their highest PCS ever, and in Kim's case the highest PCS score of all time, but now they were only separated by 0.09 points, essentially a tie?
scoring bias: in favor of Sotnikova
-----
Conclusion
The above demonstrates why people do not accept the results as anything other than a farce ... Sotnikova had never won a major international competition in her career, and had never finished on the podium at worlds. Yuna Kim was a 2-time World Champion, the defending World and Olympic Champion, and Carolina Kostner herself was a World Champion with many other major victories to her credit. This was not a case of two skaters at the top of the world, so close together that the judges narrowly pick out one winner and one loser. This was a case where you can look at all of the scoring components and see a clear bias for a skater not in their league.
If one of the scoring categories had been amiss, we might assume it was an unintentional error. But when you look at the scoring you see willful intent and bias in ALL categories ... jump calls, technical levels, grades of execution, and components scores. There is a bias in every single category of the scoring that turned a good but unpolished skater into the winner over two world class skaters who skated extremely well.
Yes, once again..ignore the facts and resort to cheap shots and diversion.
A skater could do 8 triples and arbitrarily be given credit for 6, or they could do 6 and arbitrarily be given credit for 7. What kind of sport is this?
Further, one judge specifically gave Sotnikova +3 on every single element except for her double footed step-out, which was still graded +2.
But after Russian Nationals and her spot on the Olympic Team, in order to "prep" her score for the Olympics, she suddenly received 69.6 (with mistakes) at Euros, and 74.41 at Olympics, which is the 2nd highest PCS score of all time.
Mathman, you are slowly and diplomatically inching towards the logical conclusions. For all of the hard statistical analysis that you and others have done, and all of the levels analysis that people like BoP have done, none of it matters because the numbers are all made up and goal-seeked at the end. The evidence is visible across all areas of the judging and scoring: technical calls on jumps, levels, GOEs, and PCS.
-----
Technical calls on jumps:
There seems to be a group of people in the figure skating community who accept cheating and believe it is a part of the sport. They are OK with political competitions, and will come out after the fact and defend results with cherry picked arguments. In the case of Sochi Ladies 2014, they were often quoted after the competition as saying Sotnikova did 7 triples, and Yuna Kim did 6, and so Sotnikova deserved to win.
The problem with this argument is that Sotnikova did not actually do 7 triples. The technical panel committed fraud by giving her credit for a triple instead of the double she actually did. They created another fraud when they did not give her an edge call, which would have deducted further points from her score. Meanwhile, Mao Asada did a historic 8(!) triples, but the technical panel was quick to ding her for downgrades.
In this case, it did not matter how many triples the skaters did on the ice. A skater could do 8 triples and arbitrarily be given credit for 6, or they could do 6 and arbitrarily be given credit for 7. What kind of sport is this?
Scoring bias: in favor of Sotnikova
-----
Levels:
One can go back and look at the step sequence levels the skaters have received in the past. The mode for Sotnikova is Level 3, and the mode for Yuna Kim is level 4. All other things being equal, an observer would expect the most likely score either of these skaters would receive at a competition would be Sotnikova-3 and Kim-4. However, these are not gift scores, the skaters must earn them, and they can vary from competition to competition. But, when the Levels come out reversed, with Sotnikova earning a 4, and Kim earning a 3, eyebrows are at least raised and we have to go back and look to see how the skaters deviated from their norm.
BoP and others did just that, and the extra scrutiny tells a different story than the one the judges gave. No, Sotnikova did not outperform her usual abilities on this day, and no, Yuna Kim was not uncharacteristically sloppy. Careful analysis shows that Adelina Sotnikova should have received her usual Level 3 Step Sequence score, and Yuna Kim should have received her usual Level 4 Step Sequence score.
Instead, the scores were arbitrarily reversed, further aiding the Russian's cause.
scoring bias: in favor of Sotnikova
-----
Grades of Execution:
Sotnikova received the highest GOEs of any skater in the competition, including the most number of +3 scores. Her defenders (or defenders of the results) will argue that, as the winner, it makes sense she would have the highest GOE scores. However, it's strikingly curious that the skater who received the second highest GOEs in the competition was the other Russian skater, Lipnitskaia, who was actually quite terrible and skated embarrassingly bad during the individual event. Together, the two Russian girls received nearly two-thirds of all +3s handed out in the entire competition. Lipnitskaia (5th place) herself received more +3s than Yuna Kim (2nd) and Carolina Kostner (3rd) combined.
Further, one judge specifically gave Sotnikova +3 on every single element except for her double footed step-out, which was still graded +2.
A judge also gave Yuna Kim mostly +1 on all elements...same judge perhaps? We may never know thanks to ISU's anonymous judging policy, but there was one judge on the panel convicted of trying to rig the 1998 Olympics, and another Russian judge on the panel married to one of the most powerful people in Russian Skating Federation.
scoring bias: in favor of both Russian girls (including Sotnikova)
-----
PCS scores
Adelina Sotnikova's senior international PCS scores (free skate), prior to being named to Russian 2014 Olympic Team:
56, 59, 55, 63, 60, 59, 60, 64, 60
Just a few weeks prior to the Olympics (as of January 2014), she had received ~64 at her very best (twice), with her average +/- 60, including her most recent competition.
Over numerous competitions through multiple seasons, Adelina Sotnikova had demonstrated skating abilities consistent with second rate components scores, when compared to the best of the very best, like Yuna Kim and Carolina Kostner, etc. But after Russian Nationals and her spot on the Olympic Team, in order to "prep" her score for the Olympics, she suddenly received 69.6 (with mistakes) at Euros, and 74.41 at Olympics, which is the 2nd highest PCS score of all time.
Julia Lipnitskaia's senior international PCS scores (free skate), prior to being named to Russian 2014 Olympic Team:
59, 60, 63, 60
That is a remarkably consistent score throughout the Olympic season; however, in the final weeks leading up to the Olympics, her PCS score magically shot up to:
68 at Euros, 69.82 at Olympics Team Event, and 70.06 at Olympics individual
Compare these inflationary increases to Yuna Kim and Carolina Kostner and their senior international (free skate) PCS scores during the same time...
Yuna Kim:
70, 73, 71 ... 74.5 @ Olympics
Carolina Kostner:
70, 70, 70, 65, 68, 71 ... 73.77 at Olympics
While Yuna Kim and Carolina Kostner may have received the tiniest of bumps to their scores, they were already scoring @ 70+ and in Kim's case, higher.
The Russian girls however were consistently scoring around 60 (or 64 when Sotnikova was at her very best) and rather than a similar modest "Olympics bump", what ... their scores increase by 10 points overnight? How can someone close a 10 point PCS gap and make it to world record territory overnight, unless the judges are intent to make it happen, regardless of the skater's ability on the ice?
At their previous "very best", Yuna Kim had a 9 point PCS advantage over Adelina Sotnikova, which is a night and day margin. At Sochi, both skaters received their highest PCS ever, and in Kim's case the highest PCS score of all time, but now they were only separated by 0.09 points, essentially a tie?
scoring bias: in favor of Sotnikova
-----
Conclusion
The above demonstrates why people do not accept the results as anything other than a farce ... Sotnikova had never won a major international competition in her career, and had never finished on the podium at worlds. Yuna Kim was a 2-time World Champion, the defending World and Olympic Champion, and Carolina Kostner herself was a World Champion with many other major victories to her credit. This was not a case of two skaters at the top of the world, so close together that the judges narrowly pick out one winner and one loser. This was a case where you can look at all of the scoring components and see a clear bias for a skater not in their league.
If one of the scoring categories had been amiss, we might assume it was an unintentional error. But when you look at the scoring you see willful intent and bias in ALL categories ... jump calls, technical levels, grades of execution, and components scores. There is a bias in every single category of the scoring that turned a good but unpolished skater into the winner over two world class skaters who skated extremely well.
I don't you if you're trying to blatantly lie about these things or if you actually believe these things as a result of your endless discussions with other biased uberfans.