- Joined
- Mar 14, 2006
Roundboypete for Poet Laureate of GS! 
Only I can't help hoping that the numbers will be reversed.
Only I can't help hoping that the numbers will be reversed.
Any updates on Alissa?
- Thread starter Pikachuusb
- Start date
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2007
I certainly hope our ladies can add up to 13 or less, and I will be cheering for them. But I do not expect that will be the outcome.
Now, if we only had a lady who could finish a few places above either of them ........ :think:
- Joined
- Mar 23, 2008
Alas, she doesn't exist.
Not entirely accurate. We have a few ladies that COULD place high, it's just pretty unlikely they would.
Mathman, care to do a statistical analysis of our chances of finishing with 13 or better?
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2007
Not entirely accurate. We have a few ladies that COULD place high, it's just pretty unlikely they would.
Mathman, care to do a statistical analysis of our chances of finishing with 13 or better?
It's not really statistical, but I did this analysis over at FSUniverse a few weeks ago. I'll just cut and paste it here.
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If you are ever at a party with other skating fans, ( and all of you have been drinking a little ), you can use a little Abbott and Costello arithmatic to explain why Caroline was left off the Worlds team.
Here goes. The 3 American ladies placed at 4CC as follows:
Caroline 4th
Rachael 7th
Alissa 9th
OK folks, now follow along. Caroline and Rachael added up to 4 + 7 = 11. Removing Alissa does not improve their score.
Caroline and Alissa added up to 4 + 9 = 13. Removing Rachael moves Alissa up to 8th, so Caroline and Alissa now add up to 4 + 8 = 12, which is an improvement of 1 place.
Rachael and Alissa added up to 7 + 9 = 16. Removing Caroline moves Rachael up to 6th and Alissa up to 8th. So now, Rachael and Alissa add up to 6 + 8 = 14, which is an improvement of 2 places.
So you see, it makes sense to remove your strongest skater because your total sum of the other 2 makes the biggest improvement.
- Joined
- Sep 14, 2008
The Americans basically need to skate really well AND have at least 2 other top skaters mess up if they want to get 6th + 7th place. All of the following skaters will be ranked above the American girls by an international panel if everyone skates their best:
Yu-Na Kim
Mao Asada
Carolina Kostner
Joannie Rochette
Miki Ando
Fumie Suguri
Laura Lepisto
Yu-Na Kim
Mao Asada
Carolina Kostner
Joannie Rochette
Miki Ando
Fumie Suguri
Laura Lepisto
- Joined
- Oct 31, 2006
I would also add that if Cynthia Phaneuf skates her very best SP along with her 7 triple LP, she could also finish above both Rachael and Alissa (at best, only has a 5 triple LP), just as she did at 4CC with a 5 triple LP. It will be interesting as well to see how Sarah Meier fares. She is such a question mark given her injury troubles this season, but she has been known as a solid 6th-8th place finisher at Worlds.
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- Joined
- Mar 23, 2008
Again not nearly as hopeless as it sounds.
Carolina Kostner
Joannie Rochette
Miki Ando
Fumie Suguri
Laura Lepisto
Based on past events, 2 of those girls having serious problems or mistakes is quite likely.
Carolina Kostner
Joannie Rochette
Miki Ando
Fumie Suguri
Laura Lepisto
Based on past events, 2 of those girls having serious problems or mistakes is quite likely.
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
I agree with Particle Man. Despite the odds, the U.S. ladies "control their own destinies," as they used to say under ordinal judging.
In fact, the chances that anyone in Blades of Passion's top seven will lay down two clean skates is remote. Kim and Asada can -- and probably will -- win even with multiple errors, but the rest will have to skate for it, just like Alissa and Rachael.
In fact, the chances that anyone in Blades of Passion's top seven will lay down two clean skates is remote. Kim and Asada can -- and probably will -- win even with multiple errors, but the rest will have to skate for it, just like Alissa and Rachael.
- Joined
- Oct 31, 2006
Well, don't forget to include Alissa Czisny herself among that list. She is probably the most inconsistent, likely to make the most mistakes, out of all of them.
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- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
Mathman, care to do a statistical analysis of our chances of finishing with 13 or better?
Well, let's see. We could go by "personal bests."
Then the top ten in order would be Asada, Kim, Ando, Rochette, Kostner, Suguri, Flatt, Meier, Phaneuf, Czisny.
Now we're getting somewhere. The skater just ahead of Flatt on the personal best list is...Michelle Kwan! So replacing Czisny with Kwan, now we get 7th and 8th. Darn, still not good enough.
OK, the skater just ahead of Kwan is -- ta da! -- Caroline Zhang! So replacing Flatt and Czisny with Zhang and Kwan... nope, still only seventh and eight.
So it looks like we have to bring out the big guns. Sasha Cohen wins silver, with Kimmie Meissner fifth! (Just like 2006.)
- Joined
- Mar 23, 2008
The list was for our rivals. Alissa having to do well is already a given.
Also, I'd say Lepisto is up there on almost the same frequency of meltdowns as Alissa. Lepisto is doing well this season, but so is Czisny so...
and that's enough to kill all hopes then and there.
You know, I'm just assuming now that we'll have two Olympic spots. It's just so unlikely that the chips will fall into place EXACTLY the way they need to for us to go 6-7 or 5-8 or whatever. The deciding factor is not even if some of the European girls will mess up- some likely will, as pointed out- but whether the Americans can go clean to take advantage of such mistakes. I think Rachel is definitely capable of a top 10 finish if she can do her best. But Alyssa in the top 10? Not unless she is perfect. And we know how likely THAT is.
We just CANNOT expect that from her. She's not that type of skater. That's why I say it's time to just give it up. We won't get the 3 spots. I hate to be down like this, but if what happened at 4CC's is any indication, something insane must happen at worlds...ugh, I just wish not to think about it any more.
And boy would I love to be wrong...
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If you are ever at a party with other skating fans, ( and all of you have been drinking a little ), you can use a little Abbott and Costello arithmatic to explain why Caroline was left off the Worlds team.
Here goes. The 3 American ladies placed at 4CC as follows:
Caroline 4th
Rachael 7th
Alissa 9th
OK folks, now follow along. Caroline and Rachael added up to 4 + 7 = 11. Removing Alissa does not improve their score.
Caroline and Alissa added up to 4 + 9 = 13. Removing Rachael moves Alissa up to 8th, so Caroline and Alissa now add up to 4 + 8 = 12, which is an improvement of 1 place.
Rachael and Alissa added up to 7 + 9 = 16. Removing Caroline moves Rachael up to 6th and Alissa up to 8th. So now, Rachael and Alissa add up to 6 + 8 = 14, which is an improvement of 2 places.
So you see, it makes sense to remove your strongest skater because your total sum of the other 2 makes the biggest improvement.
Hahaha I love it.
- Joined
- Feb 17, 2007
But let's say we take the season's bests rather than personal bests. How would the ladies rank then?
- Joined
- Mar 23, 2008
The only one on the board who consistently has no hope for anyone is you.
That's what you think.
- Joined
- Sep 27, 2005
If there are any mistakes in this I do apologise, I was trying to hurry and add 4CC & Europeans in to the info that I had.
So far as to how everyone skated this season
Ashley & Caroline included, for arguments sake)
(IE: Season's Best/Nationals Included)
1) Yu-Na Kim: 191.75 - CoC
2) Mao Asada: 191.13 - NHK
3) Joannie Rochette: 188.89 - Skate Canada
4) Fumie Suguri: 178.59 - Japan Nationals
5) Alissa Czisny: 178.06 - US Nationals
6) Miki Ando: 174.09 - Japan Nationals
7) Rachel Flatt: 173.78 - US Nationals
8) Caroline Zhang: 171.22 - 4CC
9) Carolina Kostner: 171.09 - Italian Nationals
10) Cynthia Phanueff: 169.41 - 4CC
11) Julia Sebestyn: 168.56 Hungarian Nationals
12) Annette Dytrt: 167.44 - German Nationals
13) Laura Lepisto: 167.32 - Europeans
14) Ashley Wagner: 165.33 - US Nationals
15) Mirai Nagasu: 159.99 - US Nationals
16) Alena Leonova: 157.18 - Jr Worlds
17) Susanna Poykio: 156.31 - Europeans
18) Katarina Gerbolt: 149.31 - Russian Nationals
19) Candice Didier: 146.13 - French Nationals
20) Elena Glebova: 145.36 - Estonian Nationals
21) Jenna McCorkell: 142.74 - British Nationals
22) Sarah Meier: 142.31 - CoC
Season's Best: Nationals NOT included
1) Yu-Na Kim: 191.75 - CoC
2) Mao Asada: 191.13 - NHK
3) Joannie Rochette: 188.89 - Skate Canada
4) Caroline Zhang: 171.22 - 4CC
5) Miki Ando: 170.88 - CoC
6) Carolina Kostner: 170.72 - Cup of Russia
7) Cynthia Phaneuff: 169.41
8) Fumie Suguri: 167.74 - 4CC
9) Laura Lepisto: 167.32 - Europeans
10) Rachel Flatt: 166.06 - Cup of Russia
11) Ashley Wagner: 161.10 - NHK
12) Alissa Czisny: 159.81 - 4CC
13) Alena Leonova: 157.18 - Jr Worlds
14) Susanna Poykio: 156.31 - Europeans
15) Sarah Meier: 142.31 - CoC
18) Elena Glebova: 140.67 Cup of Russia
19) Katrina Hacker: 139.66 - NHK
20) Jenna McCorkell: 139.37 Skate Canada
21) Katarina Gerbolt: 137.05 - Europeans
22) Annette Dytrt: 136.98 - Europeans
23) Candice Didier: 135.25 - TEB
24) Julia Sebestyn: 134.47 - Europeans
So far as to how everyone skated this season
Ashley & Caroline included, for arguments sake)(IE: Season's Best/Nationals Included)
1) Yu-Na Kim: 191.75 - CoC
2) Mao Asada: 191.13 - NHK
3) Joannie Rochette: 188.89 - Skate Canada
4) Fumie Suguri: 178.59 - Japan Nationals
5) Alissa Czisny: 178.06 - US Nationals
6) Miki Ando: 174.09 - Japan Nationals
7) Rachel Flatt: 173.78 - US Nationals
8) Caroline Zhang: 171.22 - 4CC
9) Carolina Kostner: 171.09 - Italian Nationals
10) Cynthia Phanueff: 169.41 - 4CC
11) Julia Sebestyn: 168.56 Hungarian Nationals
12) Annette Dytrt: 167.44 - German Nationals
13) Laura Lepisto: 167.32 - Europeans
14) Ashley Wagner: 165.33 - US Nationals
15) Mirai Nagasu: 159.99 - US Nationals
16) Alena Leonova: 157.18 - Jr Worlds
17) Susanna Poykio: 156.31 - Europeans
18) Katarina Gerbolt: 149.31 - Russian Nationals
19) Candice Didier: 146.13 - French Nationals
20) Elena Glebova: 145.36 - Estonian Nationals
21) Jenna McCorkell: 142.74 - British Nationals
22) Sarah Meier: 142.31 - CoC
Season's Best: Nationals NOT included
1) Yu-Na Kim: 191.75 - CoC
2) Mao Asada: 191.13 - NHK
3) Joannie Rochette: 188.89 - Skate Canada
4) Caroline Zhang: 171.22 - 4CC
5) Miki Ando: 170.88 - CoC
6) Carolina Kostner: 170.72 - Cup of Russia
7) Cynthia Phaneuff: 169.41
8) Fumie Suguri: 167.74 - 4CC
9) Laura Lepisto: 167.32 - Europeans
10) Rachel Flatt: 166.06 - Cup of Russia
11) Ashley Wagner: 161.10 - NHK
12) Alissa Czisny: 159.81 - 4CC
13) Alena Leonova: 157.18 - Jr Worlds
14) Susanna Poykio: 156.31 - Europeans
15) Sarah Meier: 142.31 - CoC
18) Elena Glebova: 140.67 Cup of Russia
19) Katrina Hacker: 139.66 - NHK
20) Jenna McCorkell: 139.37 Skate Canada
21) Katarina Gerbolt: 137.05 - Europeans
22) Annette Dytrt: 136.98 - Europeans
23) Candice Didier: 135.25 - TEB
24) Julia Sebestyn: 134.47 - Europeans
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Nice. So 7 + 10 = 17. Or, if you remove Wagner, 7+9=16. So both Rachel and Alyssa need SB's, and Lepisto, Suguri and Ando must be off their game. In addition, the skaters below them cannot beat their SB.
That's what needs to happen, based solely on that list.
