Assess (honestly) the US men
- Thread starter ilovepaydays
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hwell:Mathman said:If you're keeping score, a quad toe gives you 9.0 points. If you complete the full four revolutions but fall on the landing, you get an automatic -3 GOE in addition to a -1 fall deduction, as Sk8er1964 outlines. This gives you a total of 5.0 points for that element.
If you hold back and do a triple toe toe instead, that is worth 4.0 base value.
So I guess you can say it is better to quad and fall than never to quad at all.
Mathman
So, if the quad fall is under-rotated and downgraded to a triple, you then have a 4.0, with a -3 GOE and a -1 deduction for a big fat zero! Ouch.
Oh, and to keep it on topic -- I think JWe can medal if he a) remembers that he loves to skate and forgets about the points, and b) trusts that he can land all the jumps
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Got that right Mathman - guess I'll go out and try a quad tomorrow!
Thanks for the info on the GOE, however I won't ask for an explanation about pro-rating the GOE for elements. I mean, I'm a tenor and like there is only so much room in my head thinking and resonance.
Tenorguy
Evan did NOT skate well in the GP last season. He finished 5th in both of his events, so I think you can call him a late-season bloomer. Weir, OTOH, skated very well in his GP events but then suffered an injury and couldn't skate his best at Worlds.
Here's hoping that Weir AND Evan peak at the right time and at least one brings home an Olympic medal. I don't think either one has a shot at gold (that will go to Plushenko) but their chances are as good as any other men.
Sandhu just cannot skate a decent SP, and that seriously jeopardizes his chances at a medal. Buttle can skate a dynamite SP (as long as he doesn't try a quad in the SP) but he cannot land a quad and has only a 50% success rate with his 3A, and sometimes the 3Z as well. Lambiel has a quad but his 3A and 3Z are another thing entirely. Joubert can do the quad but his performances add up to less than the sum of their parts and the judges are shortchanging him on the PCS side. In short, all of the top men have major problems with jumps, with the possible exception of a healthy Plushenko.
If Sandhu, Buttle, Lambiel and Joubert were consistent jumpers and performers, you could say the US men have no chance. But under the circumstances, don't sell the US men short.
Here's hoping that Weir AND Evan peak at the right time and at least one brings home an Olympic medal. I don't think either one has a shot at gold (that will go to Plushenko) but their chances are as good as any other men.
Sandhu just cannot skate a decent SP, and that seriously jeopardizes his chances at a medal. Buttle can skate a dynamite SP (as long as he doesn't try a quad in the SP) but he cannot land a quad and has only a 50% success rate with his 3A, and sometimes the 3Z as well. Lambiel has a quad but his 3A and 3Z are another thing entirely. Joubert can do the quad but his performances add up to less than the sum of their parts and the judges are shortchanging him on the PCS side. In short, all of the top men have major problems with jumps, with the possible exception of a healthy Plushenko.
If Sandhu, Buttle, Lambiel and Joubert were consistent jumpers and performers, you could say the US men have no chance. But under the circumstances, don't sell the US men short.
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
Did someone say "pro-rating?"Tenorguy said:
Since everyone is clamoring to know about pro-rating (factoring) of GOE, LOL, it goes like this. As the example given by Sk8er1964, if you get a -3 GOE that might wipe out the whole score you get for an element, or even leave you with a negative score. If a level three layback spin is worth 2.6 points, then you take off -3 in GOE, you would have been better off to have stayed home.
So, for instance, for a quad toe (base value 9.0) or a triple toe (base value 4.0), you get the full value, plus or minus, of the GOE, from -3 to +3.
But for a double toe (base value 1.5), the GOEs are -1, -0.6, -0.3, 0, +0.5, +1.0, +1.5. So you could end up anywhere from 0.5 to 3.0 for the element, but it can't be negative.
The extra -1 deduction for a fall is regarded as separate from the element itself. This was not included in the first draft of the CoP, but was added later when it was realized that a skater could basically put on a splat fest and still win over a cleaner skate.
The judges do not have to keep all this straight. For each element they just hit the botton for +++, ++, + 0, -, --, or ---, and the computer takes it from there.
Here is the complete list of element scores, with GOEs (scroll down to page 29).
http://www.isu.org/vsite/vfile/page/fileurl/0,11040,4844-160823-178038-80283-0-file,00.pdf page 29
There is also a factoring for Program Component Scores. The actual scores are multiplied by a factor which is intended to keep the approximate balance between technical and presentation.
Men's LP 2.0, Ladies LP 1.6, Mens SP 1.0, Ladies SP, 0.8.
(Oh, no, don't thank me, it was nothing.
)MM
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- Mar 28, 2005
Actually Lysacek has skated well in his one GP event, it was others who did not skate well. Lysacek skated very well at Skate America and took advantage of better skaters like Joubert skating very very poorly to finish so highly. He always skates well, that is his biggest advantage, and he takes advantage when others dont skate well.
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- Jul 11, 2003
Mathman said:So I guess you can say it is better to quad and fall than never to quad at all.
Mathman
And you will get 5 points for the risk or you will get a fractured skull. Pick your choice.
Joe
- Joined
- Dec 8, 2004
The US men have had a bad start to the season, but they are really not in worse shape than they were at this time last year, when Johnny was having a great GP and the others were skating poorly. Johnny established his international rep over the last two years, and now there is a wait-and-see attitude towards him to see if he can pull it together or if he is truly a head case. His statements that men’s skating is boring is evidence of the mental game he is playing with himself by finding motivation in playing the (imaginary) role of the lone torch bearer of style and artistry among a field of slovenly technicians. Sandhu is playing a similar head game with himself by proclaiming his LP to be a masterpiece. If it works for them, then I see no problem. They are both excellent athletes and artists.
Lysacek is the strongest US men’s competitor right now despite giving in to the poor initial response to Grease. If he loved the program like he said, I think he should have stuck with it. It would have helped him stand out this season, I think eventually in a good way. I expect him to improve as the season progresses and to be the top contender for the US title in St. Louis. His skating is very CoP-friendly, he has a great casual style, and many feel he is the second coming of Robin Cousins.
The third spot on the O team is up for grabs among many contenders. Jahnke and Savoie are seemingly Wylies in waiting with great abilities and almost zero international success. The stars could align for one of them at the Os, which would be wonderful to see. Unless Weiss is able to work with a medium to facilitate Brian Wright choreographing 2 new programs from beyond the grave, I think his eligible career will continue to be a thing of the past. Goebel dug his grave with Carol Heiss by focusing on quads and saving the artistry for later. Later has never come, and now that the technique is gone, he has nothing to fall back on. That will not stop him from robbing his way into the top ten with horrendous skating should he make it to the Os, but I hope it does not come to that.
It is very possible that a relative newcomer could make the Os, but I don’t think they would have much success once they got there. Scott Smith has had a great start to the season landing his quad and scoring well under CoP. Rohene has some nice positions, but I find his skating is lacking in conviction and confidence, and his jump technique is very troubling. I’m thrilled that Ryan Bradley has made it through sectionals, and I hope he can entertain at nationals. I think also that Shaun Rogers and Parker Pennington have a chance at medaling.
Lysacek is the strongest US men’s competitor right now despite giving in to the poor initial response to Grease. If he loved the program like he said, I think he should have stuck with it. It would have helped him stand out this season, I think eventually in a good way. I expect him to improve as the season progresses and to be the top contender for the US title in St. Louis. His skating is very CoP-friendly, he has a great casual style, and many feel he is the second coming of Robin Cousins.
The third spot on the O team is up for grabs among many contenders. Jahnke and Savoie are seemingly Wylies in waiting with great abilities and almost zero international success. The stars could align for one of them at the Os, which would be wonderful to see. Unless Weiss is able to work with a medium to facilitate Brian Wright choreographing 2 new programs from beyond the grave, I think his eligible career will continue to be a thing of the past. Goebel dug his grave with Carol Heiss by focusing on quads and saving the artistry for later. Later has never come, and now that the technique is gone, he has nothing to fall back on. That will not stop him from robbing his way into the top ten with horrendous skating should he make it to the Os, but I hope it does not come to that.
It is very possible that a relative newcomer could make the Os, but I don’t think they would have much success once they got there. Scott Smith has had a great start to the season landing his quad and scoring well under CoP. Rohene has some nice positions, but I find his skating is lacking in conviction and confidence, and his jump technique is very troubling. I’m thrilled that Ryan Bradley has made it through sectionals, and I hope he can entertain at nationals. I think also that Shaun Rogers and Parker Pennington have a chance at medaling.
Wow Mathman, not only did you "go there", you went - parked the car - got out and ran 5 miles! I love it.......
I won't ever be afraid of pro-rating GOEs again. I do have one question - did you eat the COP handbook and/or the application files?!
Tenorguy
S
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slutskayafan21 said:
If Weir really, really gets his act together, skates masterfully at Nationals and sells his programs, bigtime, to the judges and audience, I think he may be an Olympic medal contender. Of course, it would be a great help to him if he gets a quad in his long program.
As for Lysacek, I would not label his bronze medal at Worlds as a fluke, but it was a surprise. Frankly I would be surprised to see him medal at Torino.
Goebel has simply run out of steam and has lost his touch with the quads. All those injuries have taken their toll, sadly. At this point, I don't think he's even a given to make the Olympic team, much less to medal.
Weiss is long past his peak, as far as I'm concerned. He won't make the US team unless other men implode on the ice.
The competition is simply too deep and strong for the US men to break out of the pack to win medals, and that's the way I see it.
In my mind, there's a couple of ways to look at Weir. Either way, he needs a quad to be on that podium, but beyond that --- First off, Weir tends to be a late in the season skater, which means he really starts to get good long about Nats and builds from there, much in the way that Michael Weiss used to be. So I wouldn't put much into his Skate Canada disaster at this point. However -- I have noticed a tendency among the US men's champions to be really good for a season or two, then start to fall back into the pack -- Scott Davis did it, Todd Eldredge did it (tho did stick along long enough to make a couple of comebacks), Michael Weiss did it, Goebel did it, and who knows, maybe Weir is starting to go into it.
So who's left? Jahnke and Savoie have great potential (tho in Savoie's case, how many years can you have that before you finally do something about it?), Delmore is a terrific talent that never quite came to be, Lysacek needs a couple of more years to get on the level of Sandhu or Buttle, Weiss has lost a lot of the pizzazz he had in previous years (tho I wouldn't entirely count him out for a bounceback at Nats this year), and Goebel has had to to go through so much stuff the last few seasons I'm not sure he has much spirit left; also, he's not IMO a well-rounded enough skater to really do too well under COP consistently; he has a lot of gaps in his choreography and he still doesn't have the greatest posture in the world.
I wouldn't overlook Scott Smith. He was 4th at Nats a couple of years ago, and did pretty well with COP in internationals until he lost his team spot. I don't see him on the podium in Torino, either, but I could see him making the team.
So who's left? Jahnke and Savoie have great potential (tho in Savoie's case, how many years can you have that before you finally do something about it?), Delmore is a terrific talent that never quite came to be, Lysacek needs a couple of more years to get on the level of Sandhu or Buttle, Weiss has lost a lot of the pizzazz he had in previous years (tho I wouldn't entirely count him out for a bounceback at Nats this year), and Goebel has had to to go through so much stuff the last few seasons I'm not sure he has much spirit left; also, he's not IMO a well-rounded enough skater to really do too well under COP consistently; he has a lot of gaps in his choreography and he still doesn't have the greatest posture in the world.
I wouldn't overlook Scott Smith. He was 4th at Nats a couple of years ago, and did pretty well with COP in internationals until he lost his team spot. I don't see him on the podium in Torino, either, but I could see him making the team.
I think Johnny or Evan has an outside chance at a medal if they skate well and others have problems. My favorite to win is Plushenko and I would love to see Lambiel on the podium. Jeff Buttle and/or Sandu are also threats. As far as I can see the medal is there for taking, whoever skates the best, they are all worthy of a medal.
Personally, I don't care whether a US male medals at the OLY's. May the best skaters win! I've never been in the least bit nationalistic about skating. I love them for who they are and how they "speak" to me, not where they are from. Although I am from the US, Yagudin will always be my favorite skater - male, female or in-between!
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- Jul 11, 2003
With the exception of the former colonies, I doubt there are skating fans as you describe yourself. I can not imagine any fan in Europe or Asia not wanting to root for their own.Kelly22 said:
But I'm a US citizen and I am a fan of all skaters and I enjoy winners from wherever they come, i.e., as long as there is no hanky panky going on.
Joe
I figure Evan and Johnny will make the Olympic team- the remaining spot is harder to figure out. I have a feeling it'll be a guy we haven't seen much of. Not neccessarily a newcomer, but not one of the first five guys that comes to mind when you say "US men in skating".
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- Jul 11, 2003
There's a whole new bunch of junior boys coming up to replace the present lot. Rohene Ward will be most interesting.Serena said:
Joe
