Can anybody break up the Slutskaya/Kwan/Cohen trio in Turin?

[Mathman]

About the two judging systems, IMHO the 6.0 OBO system was absolutely unintelligible. If you think you understand it, click here:

http://www.icecalc.com/events/owg2002/results/SEG004.HTM

Switch Joe Inman's ordinals for Michelle and Irina and see if you can figure out, from the judges' scores, who won the gold medal.

Give up? Scroll down to the Result System Matrix and try your hand at OBO. Even the New York Times reported the situation in error the next day, creating an urban legend that Inman had prevented Michelle from winning.

(Hint: Under the "majority of ordinals" method -- used, for instance, in all U.S. Nationals before 2006, Michelle would win the gold medal. Under OBO, bronze.)

Not only that, but it could happen -- and often did, for instance at 1995 Worlds, tha skater A was ahead of skater B, but then after skater C skated, suddenly A was ranked not only behind C but behind B as well.

Now compare that with CoP. Click here for Irina's scores at 2005 Worlds.

http://www.isufs.org/results/wc2005/WC05_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf

It's as plain as my face that Irina got 11.0 points for a triple Lutz/triple loop combinatiuon, 7.3 points for a 3Sal/2Lo/2T combo, etc., etc., etc., and it all added up to 58.4. Simplicity itself!

 

[Doggygirl]

About the two judging systems, IMHO the 6.0 OBO system was absolutely unintelligible. If you think you understand it, click here:

http://www.icecalc.com/events/owg2002/results/SEG004.HTM

Switch Joe Inman's ordinals for Michelle and Irina and see if you can figure out, from the judges' scores, who won the gold medal.

Give up? Scroll down to the Result System Matrix and try your hand at OBO. Even the New York Times reported the situation in error the next day, creating an urban legend that Inman had prevented Michelle from winning.

(Hint: Under the "majority of ordinals" method -- used, for instance, in all U.S. Nationals before this year, Michelle would win the gold medal. Under OBO, bronze.)

Not only that, but it could happen -- and often did, for instance at 1995 Worlds, tha skater A was ahead of skater B, but then after skater C skated, suddenly A was ranked not only behind C but behind B as well.

Now compare that with CoP. Click here for Irina's scores at 2005 Worlds.

It's as plain as you face that Irina got 11.0 points for a triple Lutz/triple loop combinatiuon, etc., etc., etc., and it all added up top 58.4. Simplicity itself!

LOL Mathman...did you HAVE to bring the OBO business into it?? I couldn't even begin to comment on that iteration of 6.0 as it made even less sense to me that majority of ordinals 6.0!! NJS may not be perfect, but IMO it makes a lot more sense to me than anything under 6.0 ever did.

DG

 

[R.D.]

The Cop might make more sense- but only for the sake that it actually awards values to the individual elements, as opposed to the entire skate (technical, then artistic). But I felt that 6.0 was more straightforward in terms of PLACEMENT. But I must admit, seeing a bunch of 5.5s and 5.6s told me absolutely nothing about how the skater did. Now, with a number composed of total points, you can get an idea in your head of just how the skater did. Of course, this only works if the judges actually participate. :scratch:

I personally feel that they could have kept 6.0 for a few more years while developing the Cop and perfecting it before releasing it, but what's done is done.

 

[gkelly]

I didn't know all that much about the 6.0 system, but I did know this: When a skater skates perfectly, she gets a 6.0.

That was never true, even in theory. If a skater performed an easy program flawlessly, s/he would not receive as high scores as a difficult program with a few glitches.

Even a state-of-the-art performance with no major glitches would not receive 6.0s if performed early in the skate order because judges would need to leave room to give potential even better performance(s) higher marks. Of course, if no one actually gave an even better performance, the earlier performance could still win without 6.0s.

And because the actual marks were really just place holders to produce ordinals, sometimes a judge was forced to give 6.0 to a performance that was obviously not perfect just to get the ordinals to work out the way that judge believed was correct.

In practice, most judges resisted giving 6.0s even to very good performances, preferring to save them for very special occasions, truly outstanding performances.

Although sometimes at national championships judges would give them to winning performances in order to make make their champions look special to the rest of the world and/or give confidence and support to the skaters themselves.

This changed in the last few competitions where the 6.0 system was being used because there was a nostalgia for the old system at play as well as simply marking the performances according to the prevailing standard.

+3 GOEs and 10.0 component marks in the new system will represent the same standard of perfection that will almost never be achieved.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

LOL Mathman...did you HAVE to bring the OBO business into it?? I couldn't even begin to comment on that iteration of 6.0 as it made even less sense to me that majority of ordinals 6.0!! NJS may not be perfect, but IMO it makes a lot more sense to me than anything under 6.0 ever did.DG

One thing about the 6.0 system was one could see who the judges were and figure out who would win a competition

Joe

 

[Doggygirl]

One thing about the 6.0 system was one could see who the judges were and figure out who would win a competition

Joe

 

[dizzydi7]

Can anybody break up....................

Well of course it can be broken. Case in point, Kwan is already injured. This can happen to anyone at any time. Remember the ice is slippery!!

No one, IMHO, has a lock on the Olympic podium. Didn't we learn anything from Worlds? Who would have predicted Kwan off the podium!

And I agree with whomever brought up the Japanese ladies...... one or more can easily make the podium at the Olympics, don't you think?

Dizzy

 

[BronzeisGolden]

There is no way I'll ever know what jump is what

Reddog, you may just find yourself learning without really applying yourself! I never really studied the jumps, but after watching competitions for about a year I found that (somewhere along the way) I could tell the difference between a flip and a toe loop. I am also a big fan of Olympic sports, and I always seem to pick up more and more about a variety of sports after every Olympic competition.
As for predicting what the podium will look like in Turin........I wouldn't even attempt that one! The Olympics have a way of producing many surprises. They create a unique kind of pressure, and, in some cases, a unique kind of inspiration. A rock solid favorite can fold and a precocious newcomer can rise. I hope that Slutskaya, Cohen, and Kwan will all be in the mix, but this season has already produced a few surprises. I do not think we have seen the last of these unexpected events. Whatever happens, I wish them all the best. I hope Slutskaya remains healthy, that Kwan heals and returns better than ever, and that Cohen can stay off her butt! I also hope that Arakawa regains her Dortmund form. That could make for one of the most stellar women's Olympic events in history.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

As for predicting what the podium will look like in Turin........I wouldn't even attempt that one! The Olympics have a way of producing many surprises. They create a unique kind of pressure, and, in some cases, a unique kind of inspiration. A rock solid favorite can fold and a precocious newcomer can rise.

Good post, BG - and could that precocious newcomer be Kimmie? I know a lot of people will not have that but those same people didn't want Sarah either.

Joe

 

[R.D.]

The Olympics have a way of producing many surprises. They create a unique kind of pressure, and, in some cases, a unique kind of inspiration. A rock solid favorite can fold and a precocious newcomer can rise.

That last sentence just about says it all, I believe- and I have nothing more to add to that.

 

[CDMM1991]

Quite possible. If you think of SLC, I believe it could repeat.

The Americans gave Sarah a resounding applause during and after her LP. She set the standard for Kwan, Slutskaya and Cohen. None of them could even match it, imo and a majority of the judges.

The Italians will give Carolina a resounding applause before, during and if it goes well, a thunderous one after the LP. Many western Europeans will join in the applause. She's more than a dark horse.

From the tape I saw of Shizuka in the Japanese cheesefest, I would have to add her name to the title of this topic and a definite one to knock off one of the topic names from the podium.

I think, and I am crying, that Michelle will have a tough time for the podium. She'll give it her best but I think the lack of practice is going to hurt.

Sasha, imo, is the one to move ahead. She's not that far behind Irina and that without a 3x3 and a bielman. What if they were in Moscow??? Think about it.

Irina has the best tech by far of all the contestants, without, imo, adequate presentation. How much the judges confuse the GOE scores with the PCS scores will be a factor in her quest for gold.

I see Miki and Joannie waiting in the wings for a melt down of the above. It could happen.

Fumie, Susanna, may be lagging behind the group, but hey not out. Julia? lots of dout.

So much, imo, depends on how they have improved after the Worlds in 2005 and we will get some ideas during the GPs.

Joe

Great analysis Joe. ITA.

 

[Ogre Mage]

Breaking up the party

I would select Shizuka Arakawa as the most likely to knock Slutskaya/Kwan/Cohen off the podium. She has beaten all of those ladies in the past and we know she can bring it, both technically and artistically. Her problems last year were primarily mental, not physical. I'm sure Shizuka would love an Olympic medal to show her 2004 Worlds Gold was no fluke.

Carolina also could do it, though I don't think she is quite as likely as Shizuka. She'll be under a lot of pressure having won her first world medal last year and skating in her home town. She has the technical goods and is developing as an overall performer but isn't there yet. Still, if she can continue the steady development she showed last year, I would count her as a contender.

 

[Jaana]

I´d imagine that Arakawa and Kostner both or either of them would stand on the podium in Turin. It could be possible that only one US lady (in my opinion Cohen who has been the best US lady skater in last two World Championships) will win a medal. About Kwan I already more than a year ago had the feeling that she will finish out of podium at the Olympics.

 

[Kasey]

How about Shizuka Arakawa, who was World Champion 2 years ago? How many World Championships has Cohen won again???

 

[R.D.]

How about Shizuka Arakawa, who was World Champion 2 years ago?

She's a contender. Definitely.

How many World Championships has Cohen won again???

How many World Championships did Sarah win before she won Oly Gold??? How many National Championships did Sarah win???

 

[Ptichka]

I will be very surprised if the trio does hold. Olympics are all about surprises. The list of laides Wold medalists since SLC include Arakawa, Costner, Sokolova, and Suguri. There has never been a MK/SC/IS (any order) podium.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Thanks all for you thoughts. Very interesting and good points. Perhaps a Kwan-Slutskaya-Cohen Oly podium is not the virtual gaurantee I have a strong feeling it is. Not that if it happened, that would prove it was a virtual gaurantee, something happening does not even come close to proving that.

 

[R.D.]

Thanks all for you thoughts. Very interesting and good points. Perhaps a Kwan-Slutskaya-Cohen Oly podium is not the virtual gaurantee I have a strong feeling it is. Not that if it happened, that would prove it was a virtual gaurantee, something happening does not even come close to proving that.

I'll tell you what a virtual guarantee is: MK will win another US title this year, setting a new record. As long as she shows up and skates at US Nats this will happen.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Who cares? this is an Oly year and Kwan is on the injured list. Sasha would like that Nats title. this may be it. Kimmie, too.

Joe

 

[Jaana]

How about Shizuka Arakawa, who was World Champion 2 years ago? How many World Championships has Cohen won again???

About Kwan vs. Cohen I would like to add that in this point of their careers Cohen though has recently won 2 silver medals at Worlds while in the same time Kwan got a bronze and finished out of podium (I believe that the last time Kwan won a Worlds competition outside N/A was in 2000, wasn´t it?).

While Arakawa won the 2004 Worlds (with my all time favourite freeskate performance in ladies discipline!!!), she was only 9th in 2005 Worlds. I´d imagine though that in Arakawa´s case a placement like that may actually really work for her benefit regarding the 2006 Olympics.