Can Ashley Wagner keep up with the New US Ladies

[pangtongfan]

Wagner beat Polina in FS by a hair, only in PCS
Polina E. will be US No.2 soon

Agreed and Edmunds will be the one pushing Gold in the U.S, which will be a good rivalry for both skaters they need as the Russian girls have each other pushing one another, and if the U.S doesn't have that going on they will lose a competitive edge to the Russians. Wagner certainly cant push Gold anymore.

 

[desertskates]

She may be able to compete with the American girls, but she will never be able to compete with the Russians. They all have such difficult technical content, and Ashley couldn't rotate a difficult combo if her life depended on it. She tried to add the 3F-3T to her arsenal this season, but by season's end, the effort had failed miserably. She changed her strategy, going for the 2A-3T in her free skate, but was still called for an underrotation.

She should continue if she loves skating, but she is deluding herself if she believes she has a chance to win a world medal. Her technical ability isn't good enough.

I agree she's unlikely to hang with the current crop of Russians. But she seems to have a strong fire in her belly and the ability to skate as well as she did last night (or tonight or whatever :scratch, so I don't rule her out for another US Championship and to possibly sneak in for a medal at Worlds in the future, should others falter.

 

[noidont]

Poor skating skills will hold her back forever.
But US doesn't really have a deep talent pool at the moment.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

yet Gold placed ahead at Worlds
so who is to say Gracie wont beat Wagner in GP medals next season ?

I'm not saying she won't. And Gold was gifted PCS to place better than Suzuki and Wagner. Her PCS was better than her clean skate in the team event FS.

 

[pangtongfan]

I'm not saying she won't. And Gold was gifted PCS to place better than Suzuki and Wagner. Her PCS was better than her clean skate in the team event FS.

Except she was undermarked in the team event FS in Sochi. Everyone knows that. However she has remained skating fairly consistently (not always perfect but always well) since then and when a young rising skater shows consistency they gain status and thus higher PCS. Not exactly rocket science.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Why assume Wagner would likely win grand prixs. Even if Asada and Kostner retire/take a year off she wont be a top 3 seed on the grand prix circuit.

She just scored 193 points. I don't think I have to point out some of the winning scores last year on the GP circuit.

 

[pangtongfan]

She just scored 193 points. I don't think I have to point out some of the winning scores last year on the GP circuit.

The scores are escalating again though in all disciplines. That 193 points got her only 7th place in a not so well skated event (nowhere near as strong as Sochi, although the SPs were great, the LPs were a bit messy) sums that up.

Who of the top 3 seeds would she have a good shot of beating in a grand prix, assuming Asada and Kostner don't skate the grand prix? Maybe Anna P. she would have a fighting chance against, although Anna P. is superior technically and more consistent. Plus as I mentioned who knows which events Radianova and Sotnotkova (if she skates) will end up in too. Keep in mind her only two career grand prix wins the top seeded skaters were Leonova and Murakami.

 

[hanca]

She just scored 193 points. I don't think I have to point out some of the winning scores last year on the GP circuit.

The scores have been climbing throughout the season. GP events and GPF has been marked much lower that Europeans, 4CC, Olympics and Worlds. I agree that as soon as Polina starts getting PCS that she deserves (which will be pretty soon, if she manages to be consistent), Ashley will drop to US number 3. At the moment Ashley is winning on PCS but Polina has no problems with TES, Ashley does.

 

[desertskates]

It's all just so unpredictable. For all we know, Mirai could come back at the next Nationals and whoop all their rear ends. And we'd all be like
But for now, it's back to the drawing board for Gracie and Ashley, and a year sure can make a huge difference.

 

[Jammers]

Wagner won a GP gold this season and a GP silver and a GPF bronze. No guarantee of GP medals next year but that can be said about any skater.

Gold won a GP bronze, and that's it. Despite many thinking she was assured wins and a GPF spot. She is a very good example of how no skater (except Kim) is assured GP medals no matter how talented they seem.

Gracie was a mess at the start of the season with no coach so her winning anything wasn't happening.

 

[amc987]

I think this depends mostly on Ashley's technical content and Gracie's consistency/ improvements in performance. Gracie has more potential, and IMO, will probably have the better career once all is said and done. That said, Gracie has work to do on her consistency in LPs (even in the Olympic ladies' event she wasn't clean) and on her presentation. Frankly I don't understand how she got component scores that were as high as the ones she received. There's no way her PCS should be higher than Wagner's or even in the same stratosphere as Suzuki's.

Ashley needs to work on her technical content. Unless she gets a consistent, ratified 3-3 in the short and long programs, stops two-footing jumps, and improves her footwork, she probably won't make it on to the world podium.

How both fare next season in the US depends mostly on whether they improve on their weaknesses during the summer and by how much. I think Polina will take another couple of years to gain maturity/musicality/better skating skills which will be necessary if she wants to move up. I think she might stay the #3 US lady (at least internationally) for at least another year. She's only 15 after all.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Wagner beat Polina in FS by a hair, only in PCS
Polina E. will be US No.2 soon

If Wagner beat Edmunds by a hair, then she beat Gold by two hairs in the FS. And both easily beat Gold in terms of TES, Wagner was rightfully well ahead of Edmunds in PCS, so I don't get your point.

 

[pointyourtoe]

Ashley, I know you can do it, just train harder to get that 3-3 consistent and fully rotated :agree:

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I think this depends mostly on Ashley's technical content and Gracie's consistency/ improvements in performance. Gracie has more potential, and IMO, will probably have the better career once all is said and done. That said, Gracie has work to do on her consistency in LPs (even in the Olympic ladies' event she wasn't clean) and on her presentation. Frankly I don't understand how she got component scores that were as high as the ones she received. There's no way her PCS should be higher than Wagner's or even in the same stratosphere as Suzuki's.

Ashley needs to work on her technical content. Unless she gets a consistent, ratified 3-3 in the short and long programs, stops two-footing jumps, and improves her footwork, she probably won't make it on to the world podium.

How both fare next season in the US depends mostly on whether they improve on their weaknesses during the summer and by how much. I think Polina will take another couple of years to gain maturity/musicality/better skating skills which will be necessary if she wants to move up. I think she might stay the #3 US lady (at least internationally) for at least another year. She's only 15 after all.

I agree with all of this. :agree:

Sky_fly seems to think that Gold is the most consistent skater out there though... Even suggested she would get 145-150 points. I guess 124 isn't too far off, eh.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

Ashley, I know you can do it, just train harder to get that 3-3 consistent and fully rotated :agree:

She can! I mean she wasn't landing 3-3 the past few seasons prior to this one and landed a couple earlier in the year. And obviously Kostner regained her 3-3 too.

This is a huge confidence boost and that FS proves she won't fizzle at the end of the season as in previous years. To anyone thinking she's done, I think the opposite.

Unfortunately for Gold, she is fizzle here. Two falls in her past two competitions, and lip/axel issues. She can certainly win worlds one day but she's got a ways to go.

 

[tripletwizzle]

Ashley, I know you can do it, just train harder to get that 3-3 consistent and fully rotated :agree:

I thought she had been landing it and it had been ratified earlier this season on the GP?? That's what's so puzzling to me. She had it and then it slipped away again.

 

[pangtongfan]

Whether Gold deserves higher PCS than Wagner or not is irrelevant. The fact is she gets them now, and is getting them regularly and most likely is indicative of who now carries favor of the USFSA. Now that the judges are giving Gold higher PCS han Wagner, Wagner's strength, Gold who is far superior technically to begin with can actually make her share of mistakes and still beat Ashley. It would take Gold skating poorly in both programs (not just one), and Wagner skating virtually letter perfect for Wagner to beat Gold in a competition again.

Moving forward Ashley could have to face all the women who beat her here at worlds, minus Suzuki. Even Asada and Kostner have recently indicated they arent sure to retire, and Mao probably isnt retiring yet. However you add in Radianova, maybe Sotnikova, and whoever else is coming up in Russian and elsewhere.

In hindsight this could have been a great chance for her to medal at worlds, probably better than she will ever have again. With Kostner's LP meltdown she could have made up the points to catch her if she had done a clean and much stronger SP and a totally clean LP with a clean 3-3.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

One would think that you and sky_fly went on your first date and things are going well...

Wagner with a significant error had higher PCS than Gold in the SP, so your theory isn't exactly holding true across both segments.

Gold is potentially superior technically but other than Sochi and US Nationals, Gold hasn't shown much ability to achieve her technical potential. Her axel really needs to be cleaned up and I agree with others that some of her jumps weren't as high this week as we have previously seen from her. Still tons of potential.

 

[LuisRollerArg]

Ashley looks confindent and much improved.. She changes the entrance on the Lutz, her 2A-3T looks a little underrotated, but the 3flip no!!!! come on judges!! She deserves 132 at least!

 

[pangtongfan]

Only you seem to be in denial that Gold is now firmly entrenched as the U.S #1, and btw I am far from a Gracie Gold fan unlike sky_fly. Gold is U.S Champion, was 4th at the Olympics, and has now placed higher than Wagner at worlds despite her worst LP in awhile. Gold is unquestionably U.S #1 like it or not, and it is highly unlikely a much older skater who has already peaked will take that away from her.

As for PCS Gold has been higher in PCS in 4 of their last 6 programs, so yes more often than not Gold is besting Wagner in PCS at this point, and Wagner no longer has a PCS advantage which she badly needs vs Gold. Even if Gold makes mistakes in 1 of the 2 programs and Wagner is clean, Wagner will have a hard time winning if her PCS are the same or lower.

Yes if Gold makes mistakes and Wagner skates clean with no two foots and a clean 3-3 they could be close technically, but the latter pretty much never happens. In fact Gold is more likely to have one of her rare cleanish skates than Wagner is to ever achieve the latter I mentioned. The truth is Gold has made alot of progress in her consistency recently, while Wagner's once famed consistency has dropped off, so even that isnt much (or any) advantage for Wagner any longer. Gold is the only one of the two who has done a totally clean LP this season in fact.