Can Carolina Kostner win the 2014 Olympic title?

[Mao88]

New article on Carolina Kostner entitled: 'Carolina Kostner reveals new programs'

Carolina's new programs are:-

Short Program: Humoresque by Antonín Dvořák

Long Program: Scheherazade by Nikolai Rimsky-Korsakov

Exhibition: Imagine (Eva Cassidy)

Article reads:-

Traditionally she will take part in the show “Opera on Ice”, which will take place once again in Verona, Italy on September 28th.

[Carolina stated:] "We’re working to have once again international high level cast members and along with Paolo Gavazzeni, artistic director of Arena di Verona Foundation, we’re selecting new arias. New choreographies and costumes will be created to offer a memorable show. I wish I could sit down myself with the audience to live the magic atmosphere the Arena and this show can spread."

So, can Carolina win the Olympic title in what is likely to be her final season?

 

[daphna]

she has an outside shot. but i bet she'll be happy with any medal!

 

[plushyfan]

she has an outside shot. but i bet she'll be happy with any medal!

:agree:

like Joubert

 

[sky_fly20]

she'll win gold if Yuna makes huge mistakes, which I doubt
but she has shot, Russia has always been a lucky place for Carolina

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

she'll win gold if Yuna makes huge mistakes, which I doubt
but she has shot, Russia has always been a lucky place for Carolina

It is possible but very unlikely, I agree. In her last 4 major events (2010 Oly and WC, 2011 WC, 2013 WC) Yuna made errors that cost her the title twice. If Yuna is clean she cannot be beat but everyone is human and errors are possible. What makes me think it is very unlikely is that Carolina would actually have to be cleaner than Yuna to win, and Carolina is almost never clean when she skates with enough difficult content needed to beat Yuna.

 

[bara1968]

Hmm, but does Carolina actually "desperately" want to win the gold?

She has potential but she also needs to have champion-like attitude along with champion's mindset to win, which Yuna already is showing.

I see Carolina as a happy skater rather than a strong competitor with killer instinct like Yuna. If she delivers the performance , she would remain happy no matter what color of medal she gets. But to win Olympics gold, you really need to be mentally prepared and need to "want" the gold IMO. I think the later also makes Mao still stronger contender for the medal than Carolina.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

I don't think so. She is arguably the most artistic skater but the OGM goes to the cleanest skaters and she has given very few clean performances, let alone competitions with both a strong SP and LP. She should medal, and I would hope that it is on the strength of her jumps and not just being propped on PCS (as I would hope for any skater). It seems that her PCS has maxed out though, so unless she skates cleanly I can't picture her putting up the numbers to beat Yuna, even a flawed Yuna. The jumping performance thread was very telling in that she had only the 16th highest FS jump score (although it was still enough for 2nd in the World).

 

[kwanatic]

Of course she can. Next to Yu-Na, she's the one with the best shot. But in order for Carolina to win a lot of things would have to fall in line. She'd need Yu-Na to make mistakes, probably in both programs. In addition to errors by Yu-Na, Carolina herself would need to be clean or at least cleaner than Yu-Na in order to overtake her. If both skate cleanly, I think it would be very close, too close to call IMO. The medal would go to whoever "stole the show"...

So yes, Carolina has a good shot at gold--better than everyone other than Yu-Na. But she's had some disastrous moments at the Olympics before so hopefully she'll be able to leave all of that in the past and finish out her career with two Olympic performances she can be proud of.

 

[sky_fly20]

So yes, Carolina has a good shot at gold--better than everyone other than Yu-Na. But she's had some disastrous moments at the Olympics before so hopefully she'll be able to leave all of that in the past and finish out her career with two Olympic performances she can be proud of.

pretty much sums up Kostners Olympics career, her past Olympics were a failure
maybe she can break her curse this time ? and end on a high note

 

[MiRé]

It's definitely possible. However, it's also possible for her to have a huge meltdown like she had in 2010 Olympics. I just hope she gets at least a bronze medal simply because she deserves it!

 

[sky_fly20]

It's definitely possible. However, it's also possible for her to have a huge meltdown like she had in 2010 Olympics. I just hope she gets at least a bronze medal simply because she deserves it!

2 Olympics wasted, her 2006 Turin failure and 2010 disastrous meltdown

 

[jenaj]

If Miki Ando can beat Yu Na, Carolina can, too. The stars would have to align, however.

 

[aftertherain]

If Miki Ando can beat Yu Na, Carolina can, too. The stars would have to align, however.

Yeah, Yuna would have to revert back to her 2011 form and mindset. Not likely.

ETA (clarification): Not likely, but it can happen. If Yuna makes major mistakes and Carolina skates much cleaner than she has in the past, then yes, I think Carolina can pull off an upset.

 

[jenaj]

Yeah, Yuna would have to revert back to her 2011 form and mindset. Not likely.

Excuses, excuses. I'm sure Yu Na wanted to win that World Championship, with her Homage to Korea, just as much as she wants to win now. True champions always want to win.

 

[FlattFan]

She just have to be cleaner than Yuna. Which is really hard because I think she will sit down at least twice after combining both SP and LP.

I think Lori is cooking up some amazing grand finale for Carolina with Scheherazade, so her PCS will be insane this season.

 

[NCSkate_fan]

I believe Kostner can win a medal but I do not foresee gold. Her technical content needs to be higher than I have seen in recent seasons not to mention dazzling program components.

 

[aftertherain]

Excuses, excuses. I'm sure Yu Na wanted to win that World Championship, with her Homage to Korea, just as much as she wants to win now. True champions always want to win.

Yes, that's true. True champions always want to win, but they're not going to get anywhere by half-***ing anything.

Miki very likely would not have won if Yuna had not half-***ed that season. Michelle couldn't do it and neither could she.

Also, still trying to figure out how Ms. Ando got 134+ at 4CC in her free skate that year.

Anyway, I'm excited about Carolina's programs this year. A poster on the forum quoted someone saying that her version of Scheherazade would be different. Seeing as her and Lori's take on Bolero was different, I don't doubt that statement. Go Carolina!

Hmm, but does Carolina actually "desperately" want to win the gold?
...
I see Carolina as a happy skater rather than a strong competitor with killer instinct like Yuna. If she delivers the performance , she would remain happy no matter what color of medal she gets.

What you said kind of reminds me of Beth Tweddle, a GB gymnast who won bronze on the uneven bars at the 2012 Olympics at the age of 27. She already had two World golds under her belt on that apparatus, so she could have definitely had a shot at Olympic gold. But she did say the same thing before the event about wanting to just podium, no matter what color medal she got.

 

[jenaj]

Yes, that's true. True champions always want to win, but they're not going to get anywhere by half-***ing anything.

Miki very likely would not have won if Yuna had not half-***ed that season. Michelle couldn't do it and neither could she.

Michelle always skated to win. I think the reason Yu Na didn't win in 2010 is because she missed her 3-3 in the short program and had a few mistakes in the long. It happened then and it could happen again. Not saying it will--just that it could.

 

[thinspread]

If Miki Ando can beat Yu Na, Carolina can, too. The stars would have to align, however.

Agreed. But Ando in those years was a more consistent jumper than Kostner. To have a shot at gold, Caro will need to level up her consistency on difficult jump elements.

Excuses, excuses. I'm sure Yu Na wanted to win that World Championship, with her Homage to Korea, just as much as she wants to win now. True champions always want to win.

Agreed too. I also think YuNa was physically ready at that event. She was very sharp during practices at Moscow. But having jumped into Worlds for her first competition did it and she allowed her nerve to get to her.

 

[Krislite]

Excuses, excuses. I'm sure Yu Na wanted to win that World Championship, with her Homage to Korea, just as much as she wants to win now. True champions always want to win.

Desire and a competitive mindset (the word aftertherain used) are two different things. Everyone wants to win. But there's a lot more to winning than merely wanting it. You have to be prepared physically and mentally, the latter meaning that you are composed, focused and unwavering. Yuna in 2011 and 2010 was certainly not as mentally prepared as she was this season.