Canadian Nationals Predictions

[silverlake22]

Ladies:

1.) Phanuef
2.) LaCoste
3.) Samson
4.) Najarro
5.) Muniz
6.) Charbonneau

Men:

1.) Chan (without a doubt)
2.) Reynolds
3.) Sawyer
4.) Ten
5.) Rogozine
6.) Russell

 

[pangtongfan]

I think if V&M compete at Worlds this year they will definitely only be 2nd or even 3rd. There is no way they will be at their best after being off the ice so long and having not competed this season. Still that would ensure Canada keeping 3 spots easily. We could keep 3 spots anyway but it will be a bigger challenge.

 

[blue_idealist]

Yeah, I think that Davis and White will probably be the world champions this year, even if Virtue and Moir come back. The other year Virtue and Moir were out most of the season, they dropped a placement, and I don't think they were even out as long as they will be this season. I still think they'll probably beat Pechalat and Bourzat, and all the others, but it's not for sure. After that, it seems like a close fight between all of Faiella and Scali, the Kerrs, Bobrova and Soloviev, Riazanova and Tkachenko, Crone and Poirier, Hoffman and Zavozin, Weaver and Poje, and maybe even Cappellini and Lanotte if they come back from their break improved. Oh yeah, and the Shibutanis and Ilinykh and Katsalapov could also be factors.

 

[pangtongfan]

I am guesing if Virtue & Moir are back for Worlds they will be fighting with Pechalat & Bourzat for the silver this year. By next year they will be back fighing with Davis & White for the gold if they have a completely healthy off season.

 

[npa]

I think if V&M compete at Worlds this year they will definitely only be 2nd or even 3rd. There is no way they will be at their best after being off the ice so long and having not competed this season. Still that would ensure Canada keeping 3 spots easily. We could keep 3 spots anyway but it will be a bigger challenge.

I dont know, but i have a drean P-B will be ahead of D-W at WCh. I know, you all talk about D-W, like about team, who is much better then all other and could have 3 falls and take gold. But WCh its not GP competitions.
I think D-W will repeat B-A way to there sacond OG.
As for V-M - dont worry, they will not skate and will not disturb D-W
The most sad thing is when such a talanted girl have such a bad injury, when not-talanted skaters have a chance to take even gold at most important competitions.

 

[blue_idealist]

I do agree that if Davis and White fell three times, Pechalat and Bourzat would beat them. Heck, with three falls Davis and White might even find themselves in like, 4th. However, I don't think they will have three falls lol.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

1. I/K cannot be factors if R/T are as only one of them will go to worlds (unless both do, but that means dropping B/S.... which aint happening).

2. I don't think Nationals will be that boring - certainly no more so than last year. Last year all four gold medal positions were pretty much locks. This year, only two are (men and dance). And really, dance depends on if V/M show up (unlikely, but if they do, they win. If they don't, C/P win)

3. So the interesting question for men comes down to the bronze medal (and conceivably a third spot at worlds). Is it Russell? Rogozine? Sawyer? Ten's out from injury (and really, I think he was dealing with one last year too, so writing's on the wall, imo). I'm rooting for Sawyer to get that one last season capper.

4. Ladies? I'm sorry, but ladies as a rule form the least interesting event for me. And this group of ladies... well, individual qualities aside (like LaCoste's fascinating sensuality)... if we get a final flight of one fall each or less (averaged out) that'll be a success.

5. Pairs is definitely the most strongly contested at the top. Potentially, Duhamel and Radford have the hardest jump content but can they pull it off? Pulling it off will give them a huge TES advantage (as most teams are gonna be doing level four lifts/spins anyway). If not, we saw at Skate Canada that they'll fall behind the other two top teams. I feel comfortable in assuming the Moore-towers/Moscowich will get one of the top two spots. Don't really want to guess the other. I think Radford might be the best Canadian male skater in pairs currently going (with Bryce out) and am rooting for D/R. Also, will Cody Hay ever find a partner?

6. Dance? To me the podium is less interesting than the difference between gold, silver and bronze. How close will Paul/Islam be in TES to the top two? How far ahead will C/P be PCS wise (W/P really took a giant step back there)?

 

[colleen o'neill]

I'm always eager for Canadian Championships , even when there doesn't seem to be room for surprises. It's really the best chance to judge how the field is developing. I'm anxious to see D/R have progressed ( creeping into my dreams in the past 2 yrs. or so has been the wish that somehow Dube would pair up with Radford ..but , oh well ..) If any coach is capable of bringing D/R along , it's Gauthier. I also expect to see M-T/M on the podium , I like L/S 's potential and energy, but didn't like the direction they took with their programs and costumes ( cheese-fest) and I'm very eager to see some of the other young up & comers , and how they fit in.

Men ??? Apart from Patrick, I have no idea what to think or expect..hoping for someone to take a step up from the pack.

Ladies..I guess it's Cynthia's to lose, and I hope she comes on gangbusters. I like some of what I see in Amelie , some of what I see in Myriane..but there's no-one who has me really excited, yet. ( What's happening with Riley M-C ? I thought she showed a spark, last year but have heard nothing of her since..) I might be more interested in the junior crop.

I think Pogue has the dance pegged pretty well. The point spread will be the interesting thing. I hope we'll be able to feel it's completely objective. Overall , Sr & JR ,I'll be interested to see how Wing & Lowe's school does. It's good to have a west coast option for our young skaters.

 

[callalily]

I am really looking forward to the pairs comp this year. Duhamel/Radford looked greatly improved at Challenge in comparison to SC, and I'm eager to see them again. I'm not sure why Meagan's been having trouble with her jumps - they're usually really solid, but maybe it's a question of getting the timing right with Eric. If it's a timing issue, the two of them should be able to get that under control with some more experience together. There's an interesting interview with them here that mentions they'll be using the triple toe in their SP at Nationals, to make things a bit easier for now, then upgrade later.
http://www.thesudburystar.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=2903130

M-T/M seem to have the edge right now, but D/R have exciting potential, and I expect them to fight for the top two spots. Lawrence/Swiegers are very charming, but she needs more consistent jumps for them to really contend.

I think that D/D will have their work cut out for them if they are able to return next season. Regaining their Canadian title will not be easy. And as for Cody, I wonder if he's really looking actively for a partner, now that he and Anabelle are engaged. Perhaps they'll simply both move into coaching. Does anyone know if he's done any tryouts?

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

I think Pogue has the dance pegged pretty well. The point spread will be the interesting thing. I hope we'll be able to feel it's completely objective. Overall , Sr & JR ,I'll be interested to see how Wing & Lowe's school does. It's good to have a west coast option for our young skaters.

The judging is objective only when I agree with it!

I don't think Cody's actively looking. I know he was doing work on Battle of the Blades. I do think Dube/Davison have a really big question regarding if they want to commit themselves after having this year off. Bryce mentioned leading up to 09 Worlds that he was seriously contemplating retirement.

 

[callalily]

In recent interviews, D/D have been saying that this "forced" season off is making them even more eager to get back into competition again. Which is surprising, given Bryce's comments in '09 that he was thinking about retiring and resuming his education. Then again, I expected them to retire after the Olympic season, and instead they continued, so who knows.

But the road back won't be easy. Teams like D/R and M-T/M will be consolidating their positions and improving their PCS scores , and I don't see D/D beating them on the technical side.

ETA: Regarding dance (and assuming V/M take the year off), I expect C/P to be way out in front. Like others have mentioned, it's the point spreads that will be interesting. Somehow I don't expect W/P to really gain traction, and P/I (if healthy) may nip closely at their heels, then pass them next year. An interesting battle.

 

[npa]

O yes - without V-M ice dance will be more interesting.Amazing

 

[dorispulaski]

npa, I think the idea is that there will be something interesting about the competitive part of dance with V/M out, because there will be some question about who will win the competition. The performance part would obviously be more interesting with them in, but the winners of the gold medal would then never be even slightly in doubt, even if they had 4 falls Maybe 5 falls.

 

[callalily]

Of course the skating would be far more interesting with V/M participating. I'd love to see them, but her health is the top priority. And I don't want them to undermine their position in the ice dance world by rushing back before they're ready.

 

[skatingfan04]

I absolutely adore Virtue and Moir, but I'm excited by the prospect of them not competing at nationals this year. Although they're back on the ice, Tessa is still recovering and there is no need for them to risk injuring her again by competing so soon after her surgery. It's not like they have anything to prove. In their absence, the focus is no longer just on them, and the younger and less experienced teams get the chance to shine. Crone and Poirier will get valuable experience on how to handle the pressure of being the favourites. Weaver and Poje will have to deal with being considered contenders (however unlikely it is) for the gold, which will probabky benefit them as well. Paul & Islam will probably get the biggest boost, bucause they'll be competing for the first time as seniors with a legitimate chance to make the world team and without the inevitable comparison between them and Virtue and Moir distracting fans from their performances any more than it did at Skate Canada. The loss of Virtue and Moir this year might turn out to be a gain for Canadian ice dance overall. Can you imagine if the three above mentioned teams were to go to worlds and score three spots for the 2011/2012 season without Virtue and Moir's help? That would mean that next season when the champs do return, they should be in good shape physically, and they'll be backed up by an entire national team that is capable of making a fantastic showing on the world stage. That would be a powerful team to have leading in to Sochi, especially since all of the dancers are rediculously young. So, I don't think that this year's dance competiton will be boring without Virtue and Moir. Sure, I'll miss their superb skating, but It'll be really interesting to see how the other teams handle the new dynamic.

 

[SubRosa]

A question: What is the likelihood of C/P and W/P securing three spots for next year's Worlds, if V/M do not go to Worlds this year? (I'm hoping they can! Just wondering what their chances are.)

 

[herios]

A question: What is the likelihood of C/P and W/P securing three spots for next year's Worlds, if V/M do not go to Worlds this year? (I'm hoping they can! Just wondering what their chances are.)

It is too early to respond to this right now, as two teams who could potentially come ahead of C/P at worlds, F/S and the Kerrs have been out themselves most of the season. Let's wait until Euros play out, to have a better sense of the possible hierarchy.
Then you have more parameters to speculate.

 

[silverlake22]

It seems like most everyone thinks Kevin Reynolds is a lock for 2nd at nationals, but I'm not so sure. I think a clean Sawyer or maybe even Rogozine could beat Reynolds if he continues to struggle with his quads.

 

[nadster]

It seems like most everyone thinks Kevin Reynolds is a lock for 2nd at nationals, but I'm not so sure. I think a clean Sawyer or maybe even Rogozine could beat Reynolds if he continues to struggle with his quads.

A clean Sawyer is very unlikely at nationals. He almost always gets UR calls on triple axels and usually has problems with the lutz as well.

Reynolds is usually quite consistent with his quads. It is the triple axel which gives him far more problems. You are right though that if he struggles with the quad others can finish 2nd.

Personally I see Reynolds finishing 2nd and Rogozine 3rd . Rogozine is by far the most consistent of the bronze medal candidates and that I think will see him through.

 

[npa]

npa, I think the idea is that there will be something interesting about the competitive part of dance with V/M out, because there will be some question about who will win the competition. The performance part would obviously be more interesting with them in, but the winners of the gold medal would then never be even slightly in doubt, even if they had 4 falls Maybe 5 falls.

So, 4CC and WCh will be much interesting without D-W