Canadian Nationals Predictions

[npa]

So, I don't think that this year's dance competiton will be boring without Virtue and Moir. Sure, I'll miss their superb skating, but It'll be really interesting to see how the other teams handle the new dynamic.

I know, that V-M disturb to mane skaters. But did this teams have V-M skating level? Who else have such skating without pushing?
And i cant understand - why are sure if they missed this season, they will be back in next?
Look, like people didnt understand, what injury Tessa have and this girl couldnt traine 3 years. And all sportmens, who have such injury couldnt compete after surgery, when Tessa become an OGM. And now all start talikng they not good enough even to take silver at WCh.
Guys, for me its interesting, how Meryl will skate with 1% of that pain, wich Tessa have.
I dont want nothing bad for D-W, but want people understand a little more, what potential V-M have, if they show one of the best perfomance in hitory at OG with such a big pain.

 

[Ravensque]

I know, that V-M disturb to mane skaters. But did this teams have V-M skating level? Who else have such skating without pushing?
And i cant understand - why are sure if they missed this season, they will be back in next?
Look, like people didnt understand, what injury Tessa have and this girl couldnt traine 3 years. And all sportmens, who have such injury couldnt compete after surgery, when Tessa become an OGM. And now all start talikng they not good enough even to take silver at WCh.
Guys, for me its interesting, how Meryl will skate with 1% of that pain, wich Tessa have.
I dont want nothing bad for D-W, but want people understand a little more, what potential V-M have, if they show one of the best perfomance in hitory at OG with such a big pain.

Virtue and Moir are in a class by themselves.........Nobody could have done what they did, and under such difficult circumstances.

 

[colleen o'neill]

npa.. speaking for myself , I think Tessa and Scott are so far ahead of the rest of the field that they can't be touched (even at 50%, probably) . I'm interested how the other couples relate to each other, apart from V/M.

Of course Canadians would be more exciting with V/M there ( I'm dying to see that FD and how the competitive version of the SD has shaped up and I'll be thrilled if they make it ), but if they decide to wait for 4CC and/or World's to come back , I can still be interested in the development of C/P , W/P , P/I , who are more competitive against each other. It's a separate question... what will the differences be in their Tech and PCS score ; will P/I have made further progress after her rib injury, have any of them made choreographic or costume changes , etc ,etc.

But if V/M could be there, it would trump everything else.

 

[skatingfan04]

I know, that V-M disturb to mane skaters. But did this teams have V-M skating level? Who else have such skating without pushing?
And i cant understand - why are sure if they missed this season, they will be back in next?
Look, like people didnt understand, what injury Tessa have and this girl couldnt traine 3 years. And all sportmens, who have such injury couldnt compete after surgery, when Tessa become an OGM. And now all start talikng they not good enough even to take silver at WCh.
Guys, for me its interesting, how Meryl will skate with 1% of that pain, wich Tessa have.
I dont want nothing bad for D-W, but want people understand a little more, what potential V-M have, if they show one of the best perfomance in hitory at OG with such a big pain.

I didn't mean to say that Virtue and Moir disturb the other skaters. Quite the opposite, actually. I think that having such a phenominal team, one of the best teams to ever compete, pushes the younger and less experienced teams to become great. I just hope that Tessa doesn't rush back only to run into worse injury problems than she has already had. I realize that she probably gave up recovery time that would have done her good in order to be ready for Vancouver, but with Sochi four years away, why should she put herself through that again? I highly doubt that a team so young and so impossibly talented will loose their edge by taking the season off.

If they do return for worlds, I have to agree with many of the others who are cautiously optimistic about their chances. I have always preferred V/M's style to Davis and White, but there is no way that Virtue and Moir will be 100%, so there is a realistic chance of them being beaten by Davis and White for the gold.

 

[npa]

but there is no way that Virtue and Moir will be 100%, so there is a realistic chance of them being beaten by Davis and White for the gold.

V-M safed Tessas legs during last 3 seasons and was better, then D-W. She didnt train at all some time and traine only on 30%, because of her problems. So this is unfaire talk, that D-W couldnt be catch - they was catch not 1 time and they are lucky to not have any injuries. So its hard to say, because V-M could have really high component score, but lose D-W in technick.
But when last season at GPF V-M lose in FD to D-W in component score - that really show, whom judges wish to see on top.
And i could understand, if V-M will not compete anymore - the won all in FS and dont need to have second try in Sochi. They could injoy life now

 

[dorispulaski]

So, 4CC and WCh will be much interesting without D-W

On the contrary, V&M will absolutely dominate 4CC & WCh if D-W are not there. If both teams are there, then they will definitely be very interesting competitions. And I would never underestimate the ability of V&M to recover from injuries and win Worlds again--it's very possible that they will be able to do it.

 

[Ravensque]

On the contrary, V&M will absolutely dominate 4CC & WCh if D-W are not there. If both teams are there, then they will definitely be very interesting competitions. And I would never underestimate the ability of V&M to recover from injuries and win Worlds again--it's very possible that they will be able to do it.

I like this.........and I hope you are right

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

silverlake, I think Reynolds is a lock BECAUSE of those quads. A clean Sawyer is a virtual impossibility given his lack of a 3A and Rogozine will be kept behind PCS wise. But he's certainly less of a lock than Patrick Chan.

A question: What is the likelihood of C/P and W/P securing three spots for next year's Worlds, if V/M do not go to Worlds this year? (I'm hoping they can! Just wondering what their chances are.)

Possible.

Without V/M, Crone/Poirier are in a good position to get a top five placement, even challenge for bronze. They're likely ahead of the Kerrs, which means they only have Faella/Scali and Bobrova/Soloviev in their way (assuming D/W and P/B go 1-2). Many people (NMURA, for example) thought it was hugely unlikely that the young Canadians would beat the Russians at the GPF because of Sino-Russian historical relations but they did. Make no mistake, they're a longshot, but it's possible. They need to stick the levels and hope F/S are a little inconsistent (which they are). They can beat B/S on PCS and TES, and have an advantage on the former (whereas the latter depends on the day).

8th for Weaver/Poje is likely the BEST they can do. Assuming that the four European teams (Kerrs, F/S, B/S, P/B) along with two N. AMerican (C/P, D/W) are ahead of W/P, that leaves seventh as their plausible peak. I think the Shibutanis are going to be ahead (8th), so they have to compete against Riazanova/Tkachenko OR Ilynikh/Katsalpov, Cappellini/Lanotte and Hoffman/Zavosin. They can obviously beat the four teams (they have this season at NHK, Skate America and GPF) but it's not by any means a lock.

And this is why V/M are so important. If Canada loses three spots, we revert to a V/M and C/P team again. A good team, but not truly representative of Canada's position.

Or herios' answer.

 

[skatingfan04]

Novice, Junior and Senior start orders are up on the Skate Canada website. Joannie and Dube/Davison are not listed as competitors, but Virtue/Moir are. Maybe they'll compete after all

 

[mariposa]

I checked the Senior Ladies flight and didn't see Diane Szmiett's name on it...is it a mistake or is she not skating nationals this season?

 

[trains]

Starting orders are up and V & M are in!

 

[colleen o'neill]

Like Pogue , I don't think we should be counting our dancing chickens before they're hatched. For C/P ,we have to remember that the Kerrs were coming back (probably too soon) after her injury at SC ,and we might get a bettter idea of where they stand after we see how they finish at Europeans. Then too, B/S had a very rough GPF ; he looked completely out of it and I half expected to hear he was battling flu , or something. Whatever the case ,they had a much better showing at their nationals , so I don't think we can be sure that C/P will beat them next time. F/S are an unknown , of course..she may still be battling illness/injury..but again, we'll have to see what happens at Euros.

I completely agree that the Shibs are coming through in the fast lane ,( I'm just feeling that ,barring injury, they'll place higher than C/Z at US Nats.), so W/P are in tough.

All this is without factoring in politics(*%#!*) at the national or international level.
But with V/M now listed as entrants at Canadians , I'm really thinking they'll try to make it. Why give up your championship if you don't have to ?

 

[silverlake22]

I checked the Senior Ladies flight and didn't see Diane Szmiett's name on it...is it a mistake or is she not skating nationals this season?

I wouldn't be surprised if she's injured judging by how she skated at her GP events this season.

 

[herios]

Starting orders are up and V & M are in!

Now this in total conflict with what we have heard a week ago on CBC GPF Gala transmission, when Tracy W. said they could be back for the 4CC...I just hope for heaven's sake they DON'T RUSH IT!

 

[gopatrick]

As mentioned, the starting orders are up:
http://www.skatecanada.ca/en/events_results/events/cdns11_result.cfm

It's going to be very interesting. Still 2 weeks to go, can't wait

Men:
1. Patrick, do I need say more, go Patraick!
Enjoy the event and rest well. I always feel he was a bit overtrained during the competition last year.
2. Kevin is coming along and making some pleasing improvement, keep working:thumbsup:
You never know what you are going to get from Jeremy, Joey and Shawn. Andrei is not my type. Hmmm, I am going to take a guess here:
3. Jeremy Ten (near-hometown boost)
4. Ian Martinez (looks well trained and reliable 3A, the Challenge Winner)
5. Shawn Sawyer (for the sake of PCS)
6. Joey Russell (please land the 3lz-3lo and at least a 3A, don't like his programs this season)
And a special note: I really want Elladj Baldé to do well. He has the "it" factor on ice, demanding my attention. He has to work on his jumping techniques to avoid leading in the air and to controll the landing.

Ladies are easier:
1. Cynthia Phaneuf (don't hesitate)
2. Amelie LaCoste (don't rush)
3. Myriane Samson (good improvement on overall skating skills, keep going)
Canadian ladies are late boomers, ain't they? Keep working, ladies~

Dance:
1. Virtue/Moir (good idea to test the water before heading to international competitions, don't push too hard)
2. Crone/Poirier (Vanessa, keep working on the postures, great improvement so far, and, Paul, try to loose up a bit more)
3. Weaver/Poje (keep working on the basics and consistency, beautiful SD but the FD music cut is terrible)

Pairs:
Going to say hmmmmmm again...that's the interesting part of it.
I am going to root for Duhamel/Radford because of Eric. Meagan has too much anxiety and negativity radiating outward if disappointed. Be patient and have some positive takes if things are not going perfectly.
However, I have the feeling it's Moore-Towers/Moscovitch's title to loose. Good consistency is their strength. Keep working on the basics, upper body lines, and of course, the jumps.
Lawrence/Swiegers have the best choreography this season. The side-by-side jumps and overall consistency are the keys to whether they can reach the top. Tone down the transitions a bit if the jumps are still not yet ready. Is a clean Van Helsing LP doable...highly doubt it, a beautiful program though.

 

[colleen o'neill]

Thanks, Gopatrick for mentioning Elladj. you know I'm frequently in awe of Patrick , I love the new Kevin ( Thanks, Shae), I thought Jeremy ( whose programs I loved this year)was out due to injury, Shawn is Shawn and though I love him, I don't think there's anything more coming from him. Joey...??? Ian ( I like, but..???) ..and so on.

I was watching for Elladj at Challenge, after his year out, and though he had a bit of a rough go there..Boy, oh boy ! Couldn't we use a bit of his panache ?

 

[yunafan1860]

Starting orders are up and V & M are in!

i 'm fainting reading this...
i believe Tessa and Scott know what they are doing... btw, i pray everything goes well, before, during and after the competition!

 

[colleen o'neill]

Yep! (Trying not to be delirious...) Naturally everyone wants Tessa to be well. Goes without saying. But my sister and I were just discussing this..and as an alternate strategy doesn't it make sense to test the waters at nationals , then if things are not completely optimal come time for 4CCs , give that a miss and go straight to Worlds. Still means going to World's with at least one other competition under your belt , but more time to get whole and rested , or make any minor changes just before the big one. ( And if everything's going swimmingly, they can do both..more feedback,more proof of fitness , etc., etc. )

 

[yunafan1860]

Yep! (Trying not to be delirious...) Naturally everyone wants Tessa to be well. Goes without saying. But my sister and I were just discussing this..and as an alternate strategy doesn't it make sense to test the waters at nationals , then if things are not completely optimal come time for 4CCs , give that a miss and go straight to Worlds. Still means going to World's with at least one other competition under your belt , but more time to get whole and rested , or make any minor changes just before the big one. ( And if everything's going swimmingly, they can do both..more feedback,more proof of fitness , etc., etc. )

No, you don't sound delirious

 

[gopatrick]

Thanks, Gopatrick for mentioning Elladj. you know I'm frequently in awe of Patrick , I love the new Kevin ( Thanks, Shae), I thought Jeremy ( whose programs I loved this year)was out due to injury, Shawn is Shawn and though I love him, I don't think there's anything more coming from him. Joey...??? Ian ( I like, but..???) ..and so on.

I was watching for Elladj at Challenge, after his year out, and though he had a bit of a rough go there..Boy, oh boy ! Couldn't we use a bit of his panache ?

Oh, dear colleen o'neill, don't set me off on gushing: Elladj just has such musculine demeanor in his movement. He's not super handsome, but his unique character, powerful edges and bold lines compel a irresistible charm...

OK, back to the Nationals...I didn't even realize Jeremy is not on the list
That's why Charles Dion is in, I remember him, the boy jumping with glasses

For Patrick, I just shrug my shoulders to those who watch his skating with negative mindset, they are keeping their eyes wide shut for some beautiful skating and just refuse to appreciate the difficulties and risks in his programs. Yes, Patrick does need some more consistency and experience, but he definitely doesn't deserve some ill-minded hatre. He just turned 20 afterall.

Since I am quite lazy these days, I also inlude an interesting GPF experience of a friend here when I am in mood to share: She was unfortunately surrounded by Japanese/Pro-Japanese fans. She had to watched Patrick's SP along with the jinxing and chanting "fall fall fall, fall on your butt" from those fans. Yeah, thanks for your good karma towards Patrick