Carolina Kostner

[coldblueeyes]

Really happy that she's putting those triples out there! A seven triple program, even if one of those was invalid. Next step is the lutz!
Also, she's been so consistent this season, is probably the most consistent she's ever been.

 

[msadot]

Really happy that she's putting those triples out there! A seven triple program, even if one of those was invalid. Next step is the lutz!
Also, she's been so consistent this season, is probably the most consistent she's ever been.

Beh? Where's the surprise?

She won and she skated superbly, like always.

Confident, IT? No need of confidence. Caro=Medal. Period.

(RoadTo300)

 

[solani]

So Carolina is already planning the 3F-3T in the short. Good to see her very nice 2A-1Lo-3S in the long. She probably won't do that combo if her 3Lz isn't stable by Worlds, but it's a very good option if it is.
With a 3F-3T in the short and both 3T-3T and 2A-1Lo-3S (plus the 3Lz) no one could say that her tech content is substandard.

 

[SXTN]

So Carolina is already planning the 3F-3T in the short. Good to see her very nice 2A-1Lo-3S in the long. She probably won't do that combo if her 3Lz isn't stable by Worlds, but it's a very good option if it is.
With a 3F-3T in the short and both 3T-3T and 2A-1Lo-3S (plus the 3Lz) no one could say that her tech content is substandard.

She can afford to have a slightly less difficult program. Her main competitors like Pogorilaya, Wagner or Miyahara all lose points with edge calls, underrotations or jumps with lower quality in terms of GOE.

She is playing it very smart. I think she should stick to the 3T-3T / Lutz / 2A-1Lo-3S option in the free. She seems capable to deliver it. She won't be a challenge for Medevedeva anyway.

 

[solani]

She can afford to have a slightly less difficult program. Her main competitors like Pogorilaya, Wagner or Miyahara all lose points with edge calls, underrotations or jumps with lower quality in terms of GOE.

She is playing it very smart. I think she should stick to the 3T-3T / Lutz / 2A-1Lo-3S option in the free. She seems capable to deliver it. She won't be a challenge for Medevedeva anyway.

Hmm, I kind of disagree. Not that I think that Carolina has a real chance of winning Worlds this season, I think that a medal would be a huge success and it isn't very likely anyway. But if she goes clean with this tech content (3T-3T, 3Lz, 2A-1Lo-3S, repeating the 3T and the 3Lo - that's a base value of 60.8 in the free and she plans roughly the same base value as Medvedeva in the short) she'd be a threat to everyone. A clean Carolina could put real pressure on Evgenia and wouldn't that be great to see for a change?

 

[coldblueeyes]

Well, her content is hardly substandard if she goes with seven triples, either way. As I said before, I think they are gambling a bit with the 3F+3T in the short, because it's a lot more damaging to fail the combo in the SP than falling on a jump in the FS, like the lutz, for example. But maybe she's getting it right in training, idk. Maybe they do want to gun for the gold, but it would be smarter to guarantee a podium right now, especially because a big difference in the SP might not be so easy to make up at worlds.

 

[msadot]

A clean Carolina could put real pressure on Evgenia and wouldn't that be great to see for a change?

No, because Mende (via Liza) knows already how this will end. "Threat" might be linked to unpredictability; and Caro's results are anything but unpredictable.

 

[solani]

No, because Mende (via Liza) knows already how this will end. "Threat" might be linked to unpredictability; and Caro's results are anything but unpredictable.

So you think that Carolina's jump layout is predictable at the moment? I don't. A clean Carolina with a 3-3, 3Lz and a 2A-1Lo-3S will very likely have a higher PCS than Evgenia. Then the GOE's will make the difference. So I don't know how this could end. It depends on Carolina's jump layout and her consistency.

 

[coldblueeyes]

So you think that Carolina's jump layout is predictable at the moment? I don't. A clean Carolina with a 3-3, 3Lz and a 2A-1Lo-3S will very likely have a higher PCS than Evgenia. Then the GOE's will make the difference. So I don't know how this could end. It depends on Carolina's jump layout and her consistency.

I think it's quite hard to beat Medvedeva unless she fails big time. She has the PCS advantage with the judges, the GOE advantage, and consistency points. Carolina can score around 75+, 145+ with a harder layout right now, but Medvedeva can do a lot more without being pristine clean, so I think it's a bit unreachable at the moment, to be honest.

 

[solani]

I think it's quite hard to beat Medvedeva unless she fails big time. She has the PCS advantage with the judges, the GOE advantage, and consistency points. Carolina can score around 75+, 145+ with a harder layout right now, but Medvedeva can do a lot more without being pristine clean, so I think it's a bit unreachable at the moment, to be honest.

Just look at what happened at Europeans. http://www.isuresults.com/results/season1617/ec2017/ec2017_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf
Carolina, with a technically less difficult program was less than 1.5 points behind on PCS and she had one jumping pass with negative GOE and one jumping pass with about 0 GOE. Otherwise she matched Evgenia's GOE. I also think that if Evgenia goes pristine clean she probably is unbeatable right now but one little error, negative GOE on one single jumping pass could open the door. But only for a pristine clean Carolina with all the technical firepower she's capable of.

 

[Meoima]

I think it's quite hard to beat Medvedeva unless she fails big time. She has the PCS advantage with the judges, the GOE advantage, and consistency points. Carolina can score around 75+, 145+ with a harder layout right now, but Medvedeva can do a lot more without being pristine clean, so I think it's a bit unreachable at the moment, to be honest.

Agree. Carolina might be contender for medal but even at her peak she never did as hard layout as Zhenia. People should be realistic.

 

[solani]

Agree. Carolina might be contender for medal but even at her peak she never did as hard layout as Zhenia. People should be realistic.

Well, no one really thought that Carolina could do two clean programs in Sochi.
Not that I think that it's going to happen at Worlds this season, my point is that a clean Carolina is the only one who could be a threat to Evgenia at this point in time. That's something in my books.

 

[msadot]

So you think that Carolina's jump layout is predictable at the moment?

Ja. That's why I'm writing roadto300. And that's why Worlds look a bit boring to me.

 

[solani]

Ja. That's why I'm writing roadto300. And that's why Worlds look a bit boring to me.

So then - could you please predict Carolina's jump layout? I'm curious. I think there are still two possible jump layouts for the SP and two for the FS. Difference in base value - about 8 points overall.

 

[Yatagarasu]

Ja. That's why I'm writing roadto300. And that's why Worlds look a bit boring to me.

Road to 300? A woman going to 300?

Are you still talking about that idiocy after people explained, several times, why it's utter nonsense?

 

[Meoima]

Well, no one really thought that Carolina could do two clean programs in Sochi.
Not that I think that it's going to happen at Worlds this season, my point is that a clean Carolina is the only one who could be a threat to Evgenia at this point in time. That's something in my books.

Realistically, a clean Carolina right now might lose to a Zhenia with one fall. I have to say tech panel at European was easy on Carolina. Will they be easy at WC and Olympic? I don't know. I am just glad to have her back, her taste has always been classy. But I know her age's limitation.

 

[msadot]

about 8 points overall.

???

 

[SXTN]

Realistically, a clean Carolina right now might lose to a Zhenia with one fall. I have to say tech panel at European was easy on Carolina. Will they be easy at WC and Olympic? I don't know. I am just glad to have her back, her taste has always been classy. But I know her age's limitation.

Technically she looks better than ever. Her programs at the Olympics was an eaaaasy 7-triple-program. No 3-3

She has just introduced a new combo at the age of 30 (!!!).

 

[coldblueeyes]

Technically she looks better than ever. Her programs at the Olympics was an eaaaasy 7-triple-program. No 3-3

She has just introduced a new combo at the age of 30 (!!!).

It's certainly a slightly easier combo than the 3F+3T, which is why she's actually landing her new combo. And no, she doesn't look better than ever, she lacks speed and better spins, and she need those if she want to win over Evgenia. Carolina is on the way to getting better than ever, but she's still not there yet.

 

[msadot]

Carolina is on the way to getting better than ever, but she's still not there yet.

Which means... winning all the 3 medals at the same time? Kant really imagine how she could get better. Sorry.

I pity her (and Liza) a bit for this: despite ALWAYS reaching the result, it's never enough.