Caroline Zhang's 2009-10 season

[PolymerBob]

We always assumed that Caroline would have to win. If she can get back to the form she was in at the end of last season, she can do it. The problem is, we have no idea how her training has been coming along.

 

[Andalusia]

Hmm, so, Ashley really gave the silver or even gold away at NHK. First half of the program was so good, and then the second half fell apart. Too bad.

Now with four GP's behind us, Miki has definitely qualified. Yu-na almost certainly will qualify. Akiko Suzuki will probably qualify. Both Alena Leonova and Ashley Wagner will probably qualify. Joannie will probably qualify. Because of the fact Alena & Ashley split two silvers and bronzes, Caroline's chances just got a lot dimmer. It looks like she will have to win SC to go to GPF. And that would be over Joannie, Akiko, Alissa, and Mirai. Tall order.

Hmm, so it looks like Ashley will be the only American in the final. Rachael cannot win SA, and she won't go to the GPF even if she places second there, right? I really don't see either of Caroline, Mirai or Alissa placing higher than second at SC; overcoming Akiko and/or Joannie would be just too hard. Caroline really did draw the short end of the straw in terms of her GPs this season - if she had had more time to train and recuperate, I don't think it would've been impossible for her to beat this absolutely pathetic ladies' field at NHK, for instance.

Because of her making the GPF, I expect huge PCS scores for Ashley at Nats even if she performs poorly there. Not that they haven't already shown blatant favouritism towards her at the last Nats, where her flutzes (she has one of the worst ones in the biz) weren't given any edge calls whatsoever.

 

[R.D.]

Wait, Zhang win SC??

Nope, sorry, won't do it...

then again, who knows...

But Wagner in the GPF...that's not exactly a done deal yet, is it? Is she mathematically guaranteed a spot in the GPF now?

 

[PolymerBob]

But Wagner in the GPF...that's not exactly a done deal yet, is it? Is she mathematically guaranteed a spot in the GPF now?

They were talking about this over at FSUniverse. Ashley and Alena both have a silver and a bronze. 2 + 3 = 5 . But Alena has a total score of 320.91 while Ashley only has 319.96, so that's the tiebreaker.

If Caroline wins SC, then 4 + 1 = 5, but her gold would put her ahead of Ashley and Alena. If she gets silver, she is behind both of them.

By the way, no American lady has won a major senior event since Kimmie won Skate America 2 years ago. So if Caroline can pull this off, she will be the darling of the USFSA.

 

[R.D.]

I seriously doubt Zhang will upset SC favorites...

In the hypothetical situation that she DOES win, can both her and Wagner qualify?

 

[PolymerBob]

I seriously doubt Zhang will upset SC favorites...

In the hypothetical situation that she DOES win, can both her and Wagner qualify?

Yes, but Alena is ahead of Ashley. So if Ashley is in, Alena is in.

Of course, there could always be injuries, illness, and people who would just rather train for the Olympics. Then anything can happen.

 

[feraina]

In the hypothetical situation that she DOES win, can both her and Wagner qualify?

I think the answer is no. Akiko Suzuki can go as low as 4th and still be guaranteed a spot in the GPF. And if Joannie is silver, she'll probably go to GPF, as she's likely to overcome both Alena & Ashley's point totals.

If Caroline wins, it will be Yu-na, Miki, Akiko, Caroline, then probably Joannie and Alena.

Ashley's scores from both comps would've landed her 4th at TEB, she really got very lucky with the draw.

 

[R.D.]

I think the answer is no. Akiko Suzuki can go as low as 4th and still be guaranteed a spot in the GPF. And if Joannie is silver, she'll probably go to GPF, as she's likely to overcome both Alena & Ashley's point totals.

If Caroline wins, it will be Yu-na, Miki, Akiko, Caroline, then probably Joannie and Alena.

I see.

It's hard not to imagine Rochette running away with this victory though. So, if I understand correctly, looks like it would take a Zhang (or a Czisny) victory at SC to bump Wagner from the GPF (but then they would replace her). So any way it goes, looks like at least one American lady will be in the final

 

[fairly4]

all i am going to say is this,
zhang should 3 letter word "s" . --she wont get into anything , why no benefit of doubt. nationals wont hold her up, use gp to keep her down. also teb gave sc an excuse to keep her scores down, plus the fact everyone scores is low.
if you noticed even though ashley, alena, got in probably their total scores are lower than Mao's. so the isu is trying to keep mao in , if not in-at least 1st alternate.

have already cheated and let us know that mirai, ashley rachel got easier gp assignments because wanted them in. by being dissappointed in dropping or maybe not get in. not done yet--
3 years in a row zhang had hardest gp assignments. mirai, rachel,ashley,alissay got easiest
when zhang got in gp final-ther usfsa sounded a bit upset and came across that way. zhang wasn't suppose to get in, so now lets make her pay.
isu is upset because mao's hasn't skated well this year so far. they wanted her in final.
but then the girls has skated to their potential -why--they don't have to-will be held up regardless By name unless you are of certain descent .

yes i called it earlier -the have always cheated , they still wanted to get away with it. unfortunately for internet they can't and cop --people know what they are looking at and calling it themselves. skating equals cheating

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

fairly, HOW did they cheat by giving Flatt easier assignments? It's in the actual rules!!!!! As someone who made top six at worlds, she doesn't face either the fourth or sixth place candidate (ie, Asada and Lepisto) and only ONE of the top three candidates (Kim, Rochette and Ando) at each of her GP events. It's designed so that, on paper, the GPF can have a deeper field. As we've seen so far this season, it emphatically DOESN'T prevent other candidates from making it in (who would've predicted Wagner and Leonova to make it in over Asada?).

As the highest ranking American, Skate USA wanted her, and they kept the other top American candidates (Wagner, Csizny, Zhang, Nagasu) away from her there in order to help her chances of making the GPF. All the GP hosts do this (neither of Canada's top two dance/pairs teams are seeing each other. Neither are Russia's top pairs/dance teams. The US top two pairs teams have different events). Now, returning candidates that haven't skated in seasons complicate this (S/Z, Cohen). You can argue it's not fair, but you cannot argue it is cheating, unless you feel it's more broadly based (which you don't. You feel there is a gigantic conspiracy designed to keep Caroline Zhang down on the basis of her ethnicity, which is a gigantic pile).

Can you post a comment from USFSA that backs up what you say regarding them sounding upset Zhang made the final. Ignoring the fact that it makes no sense, of course. I'd like to see what you mean, beyond your posts on the subject.

 

[herios]

all i am going to say is this,
zhang should 3 letter word "s" . --she wont get into anything , why no benefit of doubt. nationals wont hold her up, use gp to keep her down. also teb gave sc an excuse to keep her scores down, plus the fact everyone scores is low.
if you noticed even though ashley, alena, got in probably their total scores are lower than Mao's. so the isu is trying to keep mao in , if not in-at least 1st alternate.

have already cheated and let us know that mirai, ashley rachel got easier gp assignments because wanted them in. by being dissappointed in dropping or maybe not get in. not done yet--
3 years in a row zhang had hardest gp assignments. mirai, rachel,ashley,alissay got easiest
when zhang got in gp final-ther usfsa sounded a bit upset and came across that way. zhang wasn't suppose to get in, so now lets make her pay.
isu is upset because mao's hasn't skated well this year so far. they wanted her in final.
but then the girls has skated to their potential -why--they don't have to-will be held up regardless By name unless you are of certain descent .

yes i called it earlier -the have always cheated , they still wanted to get away with it. unfortunately for internet they can't and cop --people know what they are looking at and calling it themselves. skating equals cheating

Geez, paranoia at it's best

 

[Trewyn]

^^Exactly; Ashley's GP competitions didn't look 'lucky' on paper before the GP began; she had to face Mao, Miki, Yukari, reigning European champion Laura... Ashley was 'lucky' that medal favorites Mao, Yukari and Laura didn't deliver.

 

[Spun Silver]

whole post

Thank you.

 

[R.D.]

Ashley was 'lucky' that medal favorites Mao, Yukari and Laura didn't deliver

...and she did.

 

[feraina]

I mentioned in the Sasha thread that since Sasha has left Arutunian, this might be a good opportunity for Caroline to consider training with him. I just don't see her going anywhere with Mingzhu Li. She may or may not be a great coach, but definitely Caroline's not improving on her weaknesses and in fact she seems to be regressing. Her chances of making the Olympic team look grim right now. Even though she may want to keep things stable to maximize her chance of making the team, I think it's a lost cause anyway. She might as well focus on improving her skating at a fundamental level as soon as possible, 16 is not so young anymore, she needs every minute of youth to change the way she's skating. Next year might be too late... Heck, now might be too late to try to change things. But she's gotta try at least!

 

[janetfan]

I mentioned in the Sasha thread that since Sasha has left Arutunian, this might be a good opportunity for Caroline to consider training with him. I just don't see her going anywhere with Mingzhu Li. She may or may not be a great coach, but definitely Caroline's not improving on her weaknesses and in fact she seems to be regressing. Her chances of making the Olympic team look grim right now. Even though she may want to keep things stable to maximize her chance of making the team, I think it's a lost cause anyway. She might as well focus on improving her skating at a fundamental level as soon as possible, 16 is not so young anymore, she needs every minute of youth to change the way she's skating. Next year might be too late... Heck, now might be too late to try to change things. But she's gotta try at least!

I agree with you feraina. In fact, I think this Olympic year is a curse for Caroline and gave her good reasons not to address her technical problems.

It may already be too late for her to change so many technical problems as those habits get harder to break after so many years.
I was shocked at TEB because Caroline looked exactly the same to me. Maybe slightly worse as her strange jumps look even more exagerated now that she has grown.

Probably Arutunian would be her best bet. But the last I read Caroline wants to keep several associate coaches that she has had for many years. It is possible she may have talked with Carroll (before Mirai switched) and of course he wouldn't accept Caroline as a student unless it was under his terms. Maybe Arutunian is more flexible but Caroline needs two years under him working on jumps and skating skills.

If Mirai and Ashley keep progressing they will leave Caroline in the dust. And there is Rachael - and a new crop of skaters coming up through the ranks.

People are wondering what is wrong with Mao, her choices seem odd, etc.
I am getting that feeling from Caroline too. This shouldn't be a hard decision to make if she would like to progress. She needs to let go of everyone who has let her develope so many bad habits, who have refused to drill her relentlessly and yes, take her far, far away from her "comfort zone."

I wonder if Caroline is willing to accept that she needs a major overhaul?
Listening to her interview after TEB she said she wants to come back at SC and try and eliminate so many downgrades.
How does she think that will happen?

 

[PolymerBob]

whole post ^^^^^^

I don't know Ms. Li, but I must believe she knows what is wrong with Caroline's skating. She and Caroline must have a plan to improve Caroline's skating. In fact, they may be working on it right now. I am hoping to see at least a little improvement by Nationals.

 

[janetfan]

I don't know Ms. Li, but I must believe she knows what is wrong with Caroline's skating. She and Caroline must have a plan to improve Caroline's skating. In fact, they may be working on it right now. I am hoping to see at least a little improvement by Nationals.

I would like to see a BIG improvement by Natls but will settle for any sign of progress....anything at all,,,,,,a better 2A, more lift on any of her jumps, faster skating, and anything at all resembling expression - happy or sad, something more than the "mannequin on skates" impression she showed for her LP in Paris.

 

[feraina]

I don't know Ms. Li, but I must believe she knows what is wrong with Caroline's skating. She and Caroline must have a plan to improve Caroline's skating. In fact, they may be working on it right now. I am hoping to see at least a little improvement by Nationals.

Li and Caroline have been *saying* the right things for a couple of seasons now. They always say that their two major focuses are getting her to skate with more speed and power, and pay more attention to the choreography. But when it comes to competitions, I just don't see any improvements on these two critical fronts. It's not enough that they know what's wrong with her, they need to find a way to fix these problems, and they obviously haven't found a way yet.

And I agree, not only will Ashley and Mirai leave her in the dust, probably Rachael too, and Alexe Gilles is very closely behind and improving rapidly -- she has all 5 triples, and may well move ahead of Caroline by the end of this season. And have you guys seen Kiri Baga? She's an amazingly little 14-year-old, ripping up the JGP series. Doesn't have all her triples yet, but she does everything that she can do extremely well and is a natural little performer. And her coach seems very intent on her not developing any bad habits, and not including hard jumps that she's not 100% on yet -- just the opposite, it seems, of what Caroline's coaches have been doing with her. Kiri seems like a younger Mirai, with same kind of spirit, speed, flexibility, but better musicality and audience connection at 14-years-old, and much less of UR problems. She is definitely something to watch out for in the next Olympic cycle. As soon as she gets her five triples she will leave Caroline in the dust, too.

 

[czfan]

People counted Caroline out early last season as well, and look what happened. Just sayin'.