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Coronavirus and the World Championships

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Norway with 5,3 million inhabitants has now passed Canada in number of infected, with 25 confirmed cases so far, a lot more in quarantine and a lot more waiting for test result. So far only people who have been in high infected countries like Italy, China, Iran and South Chorea and have symptoms are tested, or if one has been in contact with one of the confirmed cases and developed symptoms. This mean, other persons who have symptoms now, are not allowed to be tested.

The first case was confirmed 5 days ago.

Earlier in this thread I was writing about the hospital doctor who went to work, who came home from North Italy. 4 of his co workers who had not been outside the country, but just worked with him, has also tested positive on the virus (he went to work on Monday and Tuesday and the 4 other cases were confirmed on Saturday). And they work at a freaking hospital, where they have high standard hygiene routines. In 2-4 days the co workers got infected and developed symptoms.

Now they have shut down the whole department at the hospital, because over 160 employees are in quarantine.

This ought to tell something about how easy this virus spread and how easy travel contributes to spread the virus. Almost every new cases from different parts of the country, came from travel in Italy. One case was confirmed from China (the first one confirmed).

The matter of WC would not necessary be that the confirmed cases in Canada so far would spread to athletes and audience, but the danger that the athletes and audience traveling from the whole world would spread the virus in Montreal. Therefore I think it´s more likely that Canada would cancel this, as we see with big sports events in some other countries now.

Now Norway have finally started with 14 days of quarantine for people who just came home from one of the mentioned countries, or been around a confirmed case, even if they don´t have developed symptoms yet. The virus would probably spread anyway, but we have made the mistake that the virus is spreading much faster than necessary and so far we have already shut down a whole hospital department temporary. In just 5 days.

With no vaccine, people with bad health could get seriously ill, and with bad capacity to handle those patients (Yes believe it but that is actually a possible scenario in Norway) there is a reason to try to slow down the virus.

So the hysteria is not about how danger the virus is, but the potensial fast spread and how there could be fatal for those who get seriously ill. Not just old people are in danger, but people with bad lungs and bad immune system.

Edit: So the hospital doctor just confirmed that he is not feeling sick at all, and that he barely has a stuffy nose and that is all. He admits that this makes the control of the virus hard, because the symptoms are not necessary obvious, so it is hard to know if it is Coronavirus or just a regular cold.
 
I asked evenko if they have any measures in place in case of cancellations by ticket holders from heavily affected countries. Here’s their response:

Tickets to the ISU’s World Figure Skating Championships 2020 are not refundable and there will be no exceptions to this policy. The International Skating Union and Skate Canada continue to closely monitor new developments of the evolution of COVID-19 (formerly referred to as Coronavirus) and will follow the recommendations provided by the World Health Organization and the Public Health Agency of Canada. The Public Health Agency of Canada has assessed the public health risk associated with the Coronavirus as low for Canada. For more information please visit: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html.

If you have any other questions, do not hesitate to contact us by email or by phone at 1-877-668-8269 and an agent will gladly assist you.

Best regards,

The evenko team
[email protected]
@evenko
www.facebook.com/evenko

Fair enough. Unless the Canadian authorities order cancellations of big events such as the Worlds, the event organiser won’t do anything. Now, I’m a bit surprised that the authorities sound rather relaxed. The website basically says “we are still ok, so all good.” As if they don’t have cases in mind where lots of travellers gather in small closed spaces.
 
My fear is that some skaters may not be allowed into Canada and thus compete. Fortunately a lot of skaters from Asia traini n the US or Canada including Rika and Yuzuru, Shoma et al. I do agree a world championship held with disregard for this virus would be silly. They shouldn't panic but take the proper precautions. Like Yan - if he has the virus it is understandable why he shouuldn't compete for many reasons or travel as much as many of us like his skating.

I remember reading recently at random (googling lol) about the plane crash that destroyed the American team in the 60's and they cancelled that world championships. I assume it was out of respect but I am not sure they would have done it for a lesser skating country or lesser powerful nation - fortunately such tragedies are rare.

I'm sure I read that Canada will not be restricting travel, as per WHO recommendationa
 
I asked evenko if they have any measures in place in case of cancellations by ticket holders from heavily affected countries. Here’s their response:



Fair enough. Unless the Canadian authorities order cancellations of big events such as the Worlds, the event organiser won’t do anything. Now, I’m a bit surprised that the authorities sound rather relaxed. The website basically says “we are still ok, so all good.” As if they don’t have cases in mind where lots of travellers gather in small closed spaces.

So what would happen if the Canadian gov't decided to cancel large gatherings - they still won't refund the money?

If they are not canceling Worlds in the next two weeks or so, I will go to Montreal since I've already spent quite a bit on this trip already with an all event ticket, flight from NY and HomeAway accommodations. I will bring the necessary precautionary items with me and take a lot of immune boosters. It will suck if I have to watch the event wearing a mask and surgical gloves, but if I have to I will.
 
Probably not. Hence the importance of having good travel insurance.

Apparently most trip cancellation insurance (at least in Canada) only covers you if YOU or a traveling companion is sick (or has a close relative who is critically ill or has died) and unable to travel. It doesn't cover event cancellations or fears of becoming ill. Of course, if an airline cancels your flight, they'd have to give your money back. Some accommodation will also give you a refund/not change you if you cancel.
 
Apparently most trip cancellation insurance (at least in Canada) only covers you if YOU or a traveling companion is sick (or has a close relative who is critically ill or has died) and unable to travel. It doesn't cover event cancellations or fears of becoming ill. Of course, if an airline cancels your flight, they'd have to give your money back. Some accommodation will also give you a refund/not change you if you cancel.

I wouldn't be so sure that the tickets wouldn't be refunded in the event of cancellation. Can they refuse to refund? Probably. Will they is the question.
 
I wouldn't be so sure that the tickets wouldn't be refunded in the event of cancellation. Can they refuse to refund? Probably. Will they is the question.

By the organizers or by insurance? Usually they are refunded if the organizers or performers or venue cancel, but I don't know what would happen if they are cancelled because of a government ban on large events.
 
if the competition goes ahead, i think they should ban throwing gifts for the skater. it would wise to prevent as much possible transmission between them and the skaters
 
So what would happen if the Canadian gov't decided to cancel large gatherings - they still won't refund the money?

If they are not canceling Worlds in the next two weeks or so, I will go to Montreal since I've already spent quite a bit on this trip already with an all event ticket, flight from NY and HomeAway accommodations. I will bring the necessary precautionary items with me and take a lot of immune boosters. It will suck if I have to watch the event wearing a mask and surgical gloves, but if I have to I will.

They won't cancel. As of 3 days ago, Quebec (who knows which city in the Province) has announced one outbreak of Coronavirus. It's a mild case and the person is being quarantined in their home.

According to medical experts, masks are quite inefficient as most people don't know how to fit them properly. Not to mention how awful it is watching a skating event and seeing nothing but a sea of masks! The key for protection is the same as preventing the 'flu: rigorous hand washing (30 seconds +) with plenty of SOAP & water, coughing into elbow, not touching one's face. Of course when flying to the event other precautions need to be taken because as we all know, planes are filthy. So anti bacterial wipes to wipe down all surfaces and use hand sanitizers.

And most importantly, stop listening to the Media, some of whom are just whipping up panic and fear everywhere. Wish I was going ... but had to sell my ticket.:(
 
Another possible source of compensation for tickets/etc that are not refunded is the credit card company, provided you paid with a credit card.

I know someone who flew from Canada to England in 2001 on a round-trip ticket on Canada 3000. The airline went bankrupt while he was there and he had to buy a last-minute one-way ticket on another carrier to get home. His credit card company refunded him the entire cost of his original round-trip ticket. The refund just about covered the cost of the one-way ticket home.

In this sort of case, the credit card company goes after the supplier who charged you but didn't deliver. If they can't collect, the refund is just one of their costs of doing business and is covered by other revenue (interest and merchant fees).
 

I agree that we shouldn’t panic and take realistic measures such as the ones you mentioned (hand-washing, sanitising, etc). The fact still remains that there are “person to person” infection cases being found in countries like Japan, Korea, Italy etc. which do coincide with the fan base of figure skating. So it’s all very well that Canada is safe for now, but you would want to keep it that way rather than knowingly allowing proven environments (e.g. public events in dense and closed spaces) yo go ahead with no measures.

Btw sorry to hear you had to sell your tickets :( :(
 
Just as an aside, for those flying to the comp, I am a govt licensed aircraft mechanic. I am also 71 and have COPD. Before I fly again, I wanted to research the current state of the aircraft air handling systems, even though I wear a N100 mask (no common mask is fool proof...not the N100....not any of them). 1. The Pilots still get fresh air. 2. The Pax get half recirculated air through good HEPA filters. 3. It is still true that the danger zone is two rows forward and two rows back of you. Use the overhead vents to get the most recirculated filtered air.
I read a 2003 report during the last SARS outbreak that said the SARS virus like this one seems to get by the 2 rows rule....its a really small critter and if it is dry, in the dry cold air of a cabin, it seems to live long and get by filters perhaps. YMMV.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14681507
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143720/

The company line is the air is safe in an aircraft, jammed with people in every direction. You may believe this if you wish.
This is what I believe with my tests.
https://www.businessinsider.com/getting-sick-on-an-airplane-flight-2018-3
 
However, my real opinion is, cancel the whole darn thing. It's too dangerous, especially given the average age of the figure skating spectator

Thank you. I had forgotten that one third of the Japanese population is over 65, and of course many skatin' fans are.
https://www.businessinsider.com/getting-sick-on-an-airplane-flight-2018-3

When one of the world's top epimemeologists says we could see 1 million dead US citizens, we can not ignore him.....
https://thehill.com/policy/healthca...-virus-expert-as-much-as-70-percent-of-worlds
 
When one of the world's top epimemeologists says we could see 1 million dead US citizens, we can not ignore him.....
https://thehill.com/policy/healthca...-virus-expert-as-much-as-70-percent-of-worlds

Not that I want to argue with the top epidemiologist, but for me the data from quarantined ship depicts the worst case scenario, because they were confined together for a long time and everyone has been in some contact with the virus. On the ship there were 3,500 people and 706 got sick, which is slightly more than 20%. So I don't know how this number of 70% appeared?! Not that 20% is a small number, but 70% is a huge overstatement. Children seem to be almost unaffected and people under 14 years of age represent about 28% to 30% of the total world population. So, if that article is right, that means that every adult, every person older than 14 years, will get sick. That seems highly inaccurate.

So, let's stay calm and enjoy figure skating!
 
Not that I want to argue with the top epidemiologist, but for me the data from quarantined ship depicts the worst case scenario, because they were confined together for a long time and everyone has been in some contact with the virus. On the ship there were 3,500 people and 706 got sick, which is slightly more than 20%. So I don't know how this number of 70% appeared?! Not that 20% is a small number, but 70% is a huge overstatement. Children seem to be almost unaffected and people under 14 years of age represent about 28% to 30% of the total world population. So, if that article is right, that means that every adult, every person older than 14 years, will get sick. That seems highly inaccurate.
!

I think you misread or misunderstood. The word "sick" is your issue. The study model is predictive of INFECTION. And with this virus, we know that many people can be infected (and contagious to others) without showing symptoms themselves.....or showing such mild symptoms that they might go unnoticed and certainly not requiring direct medical intervention. Children can certainly acquire the virus though so far, it doesn't seem to do them any harm, but they may be able to effectively transmit it. With a virus that zero of the population seems to have any immunity to, a huge percentage of the planet could conceivably become infected, although a sizeable proportion may end up not being "sick" just carriers.

For a variety of reasons, the Diamond Princess is not necessarily the model you want to extrapolate from for wider modeling. And the "official" number does not include crew still under quarantine and yet to show infection, nor does it include the persons who were evacuated to their home countries and then tested positive (over 40 in the USA alone in this category, but assigned to the official USA numbers not the D.P.). Some postulate that if the ship had just continued on with business as usual, that the majority of passengers/crew would have ended up infected.

This epidemiologist is one of the best in the world at modeling disease, so what he has to offer should be carefully considered. Whether figure skating competitions rank up their as important must-carry-on-regardless events, is debatable.
 
What happened to ticket holders when the Grand Prix in France got cancelled part way through? I would assume the ISU would follow the same procedure.
 
I think you misread or misunderstood. The word "sick" is your issue. The study model is predictive of INFECTION. And with this virus, we know that many people can be infected (and contagious to others) without showing symptoms themselves.....or showing such mild symptoms that they might go unnoticed and certainly not requiring direct medical intervention. Children can certainly acquire the virus though so far, it doesn't seem to do them any harm, but they may be able to effectively transmit it. With a virus that zero of the population seems to have any immunity to, a huge percentage of the planet could conceivably become infected, although a sizeable proportion may end up not being "sick" just carriers.

For a variety of reasons, the Diamond Princess is not necessarily the model you want to extrapolate from for wider modeling. And the "official" number does not include crew still under quarantine and yet to show infection, nor does it include the persons who were evacuated to their home countries and then tested positive (over 40 in the USA alone in this category, but assigned to the official USA numbers not the D.P.). Some postulate that if the ship had just continued on with business as usual, that the majority of passengers/crew would have ended up infected.

This epidemiologist is one of the best in the world at modeling disease, so what he has to offer should be carefully considered. Whether figure skating competitions rank up their as important must-carry-on-regardless events, is debatable.

Well put. I believe I have read that only 10 crew members were REPORTED to have got sick. I have cruised 6 times and my best friend, a mechanical engineer, has cruised 14 times. We are kind of stumped as to the infection meathod on the ship....which is full of old people and young crew members. Since the symptomatic sick were removed in real time, and the infection continued, there are lots of senarios besides the air handling system. (asymptomatic crew members preparing and delivering your food) I personally think that the fact that people can be affected and shedding while being asymtomaic is the most likely case. If true, and the warm moist air to come doesnt slow the virus like it does the flu and colds, we have issues like the expert says ...( one third of colds are corona viruses, but we have all had colds in our lives and have immunity to many of the cold viruses.... that no one has immunity to THIS virus means that it will continue to spread....
 
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