Coronavirus and the World Championships

[Autumn Leaves]

A forum member just bought an all event package priced at $1600 CAD for $300 on the secondary market. The media is whipping up panic over the fact that there are now two strains due to mutation....one more viralant than the other. It is unknown which strain IIRC we have in the US. The L or the S. But we should know shortly.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/scientists-identified-strains-covid-19/story?id=69391954

I understand that the less aggressive mutation is the newer one. Viruses often become less deadly in order to thrive and survive. When they kill a host, they kill a future chain and eventually die out too, so they tend to mutate into milder forms to ensure their own survival. So, everywhere the lighter form should become more widespread, but currently it is highly likely that both coexist. That can explain some of the repeated illnesses of recovered patients - they probably got two strains.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

The ISU bulletin outlined measures to do what they can, for both....but you have to be realistic. Even if you dont touch your face and dont touch money and wash your hands and use hand sanitizer and wear a mask, someone gets close to you at the wrong time and is shedding the virus...for instance sitting in the arena next to you or behind you and coughing into your space, some of those critters can get into your eyes or on your skin or ? and you can become infected. If you are young, you will only have what seems to be a bad case of the flu...so much we dont know...like if you get the S strain, can you then get sick from the L strain? Are both here now in North America? Will they arrive by airliner during the comp? Experts are now back tracking on how long the virus can last on a cool dry surface....
1. Dont panic
2. Be prepared
3. Make choices you can live with

Great tips! It seems like things are taking a turn for the worse, as far as events getting cancelled or companies withdrawing participation in activities, in North America. I think there is now a greater than 0% chance the event does get cancelled or postponed, and it should if experts agree that the public will be endangered. As others have said, it's not only a matter of people potentially bringing the virus to Montreal, but also all those people taking the virus to their home countries which, in many cases, aren't equipped to deal with this type of epidemic. Coronavirus is wreaking havoc in places like Iran.

 

[CoyoteChris]

To make the right choice you need information. You need to know all of the above, and if and how they screen the fans arriving from all over the world. Also are these fans coming, or they are also facing the same dilemma as me, and decide to stay home? Because:
I love a fully packed arena, as that’s half of the fun for me!
I have a compromised immune system, and the ethnicity of fans coming plays a role in my decision. ( are they coming from highly infected countries?)
If I don’t go can I retrieve some of my over $1000 I spend for tickets?
Do I spend all that money, and fly( I hate flying) to watch just practices that I love the most, see the city and leave?
See my problems? LOL

Its a hard decision for sure....and the experts keep saying, "We just dont know". That is not saying they arent trying...they are....but even with beaucoup kits and 90 labs on line to test in the US in awhile, people are still testing negative while first infected...
Like you, for me, its an easy choice. I am canceling my cruise to Alaska in May. I have COPD and I am 71 and the cruise isnt worth the worry over the 4 aircraft flights and the possiblility that one person on a ship of 3500 has the virus....and we are all quarentined in Juno or ?

Chris hoping for no more mutations.

 

[CoyoteChris]

Great tips! It seems like things are taking a turn for the worse, as far as events getting cancelled or companies withdrawing participation in activities, in North America. I think there is now a greater than 0% chance the event does get cancelled or postponed, and it should if experts agree that the public will be endangered. As others have said, it's not only a matter of people potentially bringing the virus to Montreal, but also all those people taking the virus to their home countries which, in many cases, aren't equipped to deal with this type of epidemic. Coronavirus is wreaking havoc in places like Iran.

Exactly...and Italy...Korea....Poor Korea has 50 mil people in an area the size of the state of Indiana.. and 10 million alone in Seoul... 300,000 kids now stay home from school around the world....
The point is that we can get through this, just like we got through the 1918 pandemic. People in Spokane didnt panic...they planned and delt with things. In 2018 our Newspaper did lots of great articles commemerating what life was like during the pandemic.
Dont panic
Plan and get ready.
https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2019/jan/20/the-doctor-and-the-pandemic-spokanes-1918-fight-ag/

 

[CoyoteChris]

I understand that the less aggressive mutation is the newer one. Viruses often become less deadly in order to thrive and survive. When they kill a host, they kill a future chain and eventually die out too, so they tend to mutate into milder forms to ensure their own survival. So, everywhere the lighter form should become more widespread, but currently it is highly likely that both coexist. That can explain some of the repeated illnesses of recovered patients - they probably got two strains.

Good point. Different survival "strageties". A norovirus is beyond highly contagious and has a 4-6 hours incubation, and also doesnt kill the host usually. Cold viruses seldom kill the host, also....and are everywhere....they just are not as prevelant during the late spring, summer and fall.

 

[Autumn Leaves]

Exactly...and Italy...Korea....Poor Korea has 50 mil people in an area the size of the state of Indiana.. and 10 million alone in Seoul... 300,000 kids now stay home from school around the world....
The point is that we can get through this, just like we got through the 1918 pandemic. People in Spokane didnt panic...they planned and delt with things. In 2018 our Newspaper did lots of great articles commemerating what life was like during the pandemic.
Dont panic
Plan and get ready.
https://www.spokesman.com/stories/20...1918-fight-ag//

But Korea is handling it excellently. Overall, I am very impressed by how many Asian countries deal with the situation as opposed to Europe and North America. We'll probably pay a high price for the initial arrogance and the lack of speed in taking measures. And we should insist that our governments make more tests, diligently follow each contact of each discovered case, prepare or build temporary intensive case and quarantine units, work on the development and mass production of inexpensive tests (Vietnam developed a test that costs $0.34 and has the same accuracy), recruit and train volunteers, use drive-in testing units to avoid spreading the disease in ERs, etc. I am not talking about panic; I am talking about measures. Once people feel that measures are taken, the panic subsides and they start to fight about Sochi 2014 or GPF 2019 again

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

But Korea is handling it excellently. Overall, I am very impressed by how many Asian countries deal with the situation as opposed to Europe and North America. We'll probably pay a high price for the initial arrogance and the lack of speed in taking measures. And we should insist that our governments make more tests, diligently follow each contact of each discovered case, prepare or build temporary intensive case and quarantine units, work on the development and mass production of inexpensive tests (Vietnam developed a test that costs $0.34 and has the same accuracy), recruit and train volunteers, use drive-in testing units to avoid spreading the disease in ERs, etc. I am not talking about panic; I am talking about measures. Once people feel that measures are taken, the panic subsides and they start to fight about Sochi 2014 or GPF 2019 again

The problem in the US is that, unfortunately, a lot of people don't have access to affordable healthcare. A test that costs under a $1 in Vietnam would literally cost hundreds to administer here. We also have a lot of single-parent families, so shutting down schools isn't really practical unless people also stay home from work. An additional problem is that most Americans have no savings or access to any government programs that would compensate them for lost pay if they had to be quarantined. Something like coronavirus really exposes the problems of the lost middle class in the US, where most people are either living comfortably or really struggling to get by.

 

[ssffww]

The problem in the US is that, unfortunately, a lot of people don't have access to affordable healthcare. A test that costs under a $1 in Vietnam would literally cost hundreds to administer here. We also have a lot of single-parent families, so shutting down schools isn't really practical unless people also stay home from work. An additional problem is that most Americans have no savings or access to any government programs that would compensate them for lost pay if they had to be quarantined. Something like coronavirus really exposes the problems of the lost middle class in the US, where most people are either living comfortably or really struggling to get by.

Our governor in NY ordered all fees for tests to be waived. It can be done elsewhere, but it's not.

 

[KatGrace1925]

Our governor in NY ordered all fees for tests to be waived. It can be done elsewhere, but it's not.

Same thing in Washington state I heard, all fees for tests to be waived.

 

[concorde]

Are the fees waived for all or are private insurers expected to pay the fees for their members?

 

[crazydreamer]

Coronavirus creates seriously mixed incentives. On the one hand, you want to shut down all travel until it’s all under control. But if the travel industry remains as weakened as it currently for even as little as another 3-6 months, companies in that industry (airlines, travel agencies, tour operators, cruise lines, hotels, etc.) will begin to shed a massive numbers of jobs and/or declare bankruptcy. These companies depend entirely on a constant stream of income from tourism.

And organizations like ISU no doubt feel pressured to go forward with big money-making events, despite the health and social risks, to avoid layoffs or even bankruptcy. I have no idea to what extent ISU depends financially on the World Figure Skating Championships, but I’m sure that is factoring into its decisionmaking.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

And organizations like ISU no doubt feel pressured to go forward with big money-making events, despite the health and social risks, to avoid layoffs or even bankruptcy. I have no idea to what extent ISU depends financially on the World Figure Skating Championships, but I’m sure that is factoring into its decisionmaking.

It's important for not only the ISU, but also any organization that gains from the trickle down. When Nathan Chen wins a world title, the USFSA benefits, NBC benefits, his sponsors benefit, the GP events like Skate America who can use him their marketing benefit, etc. A lot of stakeholders are incentivized to go through with the event, so it's really up to the public and local health officials to make an objective decision about whether to hold it.

 

[Elucidus]

Great tips! It seems like things are taking a turn for the worse, as far as events getting cancelled or companies withdrawing participation in activities, in North America. I think there is now a greater than 0% chance the event does get cancelled or postponed, and it should if experts agree that the public will be endangered. As others have said, it's not only a matter of people potentially bringing the virus to Montreal, but also all those people taking the virus to their home countries which, in many cases, aren't equipped to deal with this type of epidemic. Coronavirus is wreaking havoc in places like Iran.

The thing is, after certain stage of spread - banning or limiting people gatherings becomes pointless. That, and it's pretty debatable - whether delaying couple of thousands unavoidable deaths outweigh huge economical losses which can have more negative impacts for the whole population in the long run. It's clear already that pandemic is just matter of time and new virus will become another "seasonal flu". In that case maybe it will be more beneficial to allow people to develop natural immunity sooner than later? It's not that I am too cynical here - it's just natural order of things which we should accept anyway - whether we want it or not. Because majority of countries can't be like China and just going through the motions of resisting the virus - in fact silently accepting new reality. It's impossible for them to quarantine large amounts of people, and they don't have level of health care high enough to not be overloaded instantly in the first cluster of cases. Especially such countries as Ukraine, India, Iran, african countries, small countries with dependency on tourism etc. I expect that narrative about that virus will change soon, tbh - not because it will become less dangerous - but because those in power will declare it less dangerous. They realize that economical losses are too much already.

 

[CoyoteChris]

Exactly...and Italy...Korea....Poor Korea has 50 mil people in an area the size of the state of Indiana.. and 10 million alone in Seoul... 300,000 kids now stay home from school around the world....
The point is that we can get through this, just like we got through the 1918 pandemic. People in Spokane didnt panic...they planned and delt with things. In 2018 our Newspaper did lots of great articles commemerating what life was like during the pandemic.
Dont panic
Plan and get ready.
https://www.spokesman.com/stories/20...1918-fight-ag//

But Korea is handling it excellently. Overall, I am very impressed by how many Asian countries deal with the situation as opposed to Europe and North America. We'll probably pay a high price for the initial arrogance and the lack of speed in taking measures. And we should insist that our governments make more tests, diligently follow each contact of each discovered case, prepare or build temporary intensive case and quarantine units, work on the development and mass production of inexpensive tests (Vietnam developed a test that costs $0.34 and has the same accuracy), recruit and train volunteers, use drive-in testing units to avoid spreading the disease in ERs, etc. I am not talking about panic; I am talking about measures. Once people feel that measures are taken, the panic subsides and they start to fight about Sochi 2014 or GPF 2019 again

Oh, I agree with you. The US especially refuses to deal with emergency preparedness on an individual level, local level, state and federal. I am old enough to remember being taught what little we could actually do to make it through a nuclear exchange...fall out shelters were all the rage....stockpiling food like the Mormons do....then Mt. St Helens went off and we figured out fires were increasing and we lived near the Cascadia sublimation zone. You think the good people from WA state would remember everyone having to wear masks to avoid the deadly volcanic dust? And stockpile them? No. I am one of the few non Mormons I know who is about as prepared for any emergency as one can be. Ever see pics of east coast residents in long lines buying out the stores before Hurricanes? What were they thinking? My government doesnt want to think about disaster preparedness of any kind any more. They wont even teach it in school. Its like pulling teeth to get people to change their smoke detector batteries or even put in smoke detectors.....what has become of our country? :disapp:

 

[Kelly Lynn]

It’s hard to believe that this event isn’t cancelled when large gatherings for events are being cancelled all over the world. The international nature of this event makes it particularly likely to spread the virus. I’m into it for $5000 but will accept the loss should it be cancelled but this waiting period of will it or won’t it is maddening. One member of my party has had to cancel because of a compromised immune system. As much as I’m looking forward to the event I think it would be best if it was cancelled for all involved.

 

[Tahuu]

The best last resort to cancelling Worlds is to hold it without the audience as sporting events now in Italy and are being planned in the US.

 

[DSQ]

It’s hard to believe that this event isn’t cancelled when large gatherings for events are being cancelled all over the world. The international nature of this event makes it particularly likely to spread the virus. I’m into it for $5000 but will accept the loss should it be cancelled but this waiting period of will it or won’t it is maddening. One member of my party has had to cancel because of a compromised immune system. As much as I’m looking forward to the event I think it would be best if it was cancelled for all involved.

There are many events that are still going ahead. I think at this point the only way this is going to be cancelled is if the Canadian government implements travel restrictions.

I would say to everyone reading this assume the event is going ahead and plan accordingly. If anything changes then you can deal with it.

 

[Skatie]

Would the Canadian government deny entry or quarantine any of the skaters, fans or officials if they are arriving from the level 3 risk areas - China, Northern Italy? Japan and South Korea are designated as Level 2 Health risks which i believe is self monitoring for symptoms. I thought for Canadian travellers if they were arriving back from a level 3 area had to self isolate for 14 days but not sure what applies to non-Canadians arriving in Canada from those regions? Its a tough situation as we shouldn't be afraid to carry on with normal life, but also don't want to unintentionally create more spread of the virus through a large gatherings.

 

[Ziotic]

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-hea...us-infection/latest-travel-health-advice.html


There is a section about returning to Canada.

 

[4everchan]

Trudeau said yesterday that the borders remain open for travel... and to me that means that events, including ISUWC will go on. Of course, this could change at any time.

THere are 3 confirmed cases in the entire province of Quebec.... all of them were travelers coming back from hot spots. (Iran and China IIRC).
The virus has NOT spread locally as these people were identified and confined quickly.
Quarantine like it has been done in China is very effective. But there are other ways, especially when the virus hasn't spread locally. Airport security is crucial and so far, seems to be well organized.