COVID-19: Coping and Social Distancing

[CoyoteChris]

IIRC India said it is gearing up to produce the Oxford vaccine, now in trials in the UK, even before the trials are over. If it works, the vaccine can enter production in Sept. The various serum tests are undergoing testing themselves and I think 3 show very high accuracy rates. Its hard to separate the cov 19 antibodies from the garden variety covid cold antibodies. One wonders if SARS CoV 2003 had lasted longer, would it have had many of the effects that SARS Cov 2 seems to have had?

I do have a small chuckle...everyone is saying there is no proof that antibodies in the blood show some sort of immunity to getting sick again, without trials. Well, yes, that is true. But it is also true that you would be hard presses to show me 100 viruses that infected human beings where the antibodies DIDNT offer some immunity after saving the life of the person! I got 300 viruses in my back pocket , 90 of them Covid, that seem to have offered some immunity from future infection, even of in the short term.

Pray for divine guidence for the Oxford vaccine research team. And for all researchers....

 

[CoyoteChris]

There is an issue of Smithsonian Magazine I am reading. Nov. 2017. 3 good articles on pandemics, including the next one...and there will always be a next one. The H7N9 virus lives in the wet markets of China and has a 40 percent mortality rate. It passes from chickens to humans but so far not human to human. So far....(IIRC this was written after the now famous 2015 speech by Bill Gates on the next pandemic)

 

[AshWagsFan]

I hate to make an official season thread till we know there is a season.

Maybe skater's will all go to Sweden to skate?? Or Norway? I see Sondre Oddvoll Bøe' s rink is open

New Zealand has also reopened everything, so perhaps we could change the Grand Prix locations to Norway, Sweden, and New Zealand

 

[Sai Bon]

New Zealand has also reopened everything, so perhaps we could change the Grand Prix locations to Norway, Sweden, and New Zealand

Ooooh, yes please!!!

 

[Harriet]

New Zealand has also reopened everything, so perhaps we could change the Grand Prix locations to Norway, Sweden, and New Zealand

New Zealand has not reopened everything. New Zealand has gone from Stage Four restrictions (near-total lockdown) to Stage Three restrictions (still over 75% locked down). New Zealand is not letting anyone from outside the country in for the foreseeable future, with the possible exceptions of Australians if we manage to get to as good a state of containment as they have eventually.

Even if you could get in there, do you want to risk figure skating and the ISU being spoken of in New Zealand in the same terms of anger and fear that the Ruby Princess is talked of in Australia?

 

[IndiaP12]

New Zealand has not reopened everything. New Zealand has gone from Stage Four restrictions (near-total lockdown) to Stage Three restrictions (still over 75% locked down). New Zealand is not letting anyone from outside the country in for the foreseeable future, with the possible exceptions of Australians if we manage to get to as good a state of containment as they have eventually.

Even if you could get in there, do you want to risk figure skating and the ISU being spoken of in New Zealand in the same terms of anger and fear that the Ruby Princess is talked of in Australia?

I’m from New Zealand too and we should be in level 2 within about 10 days. I wish other countries would be smart and do what we are doing [emoji31] can’t believe how stupid the USA is

 

[Sai Bon]

New Zealand has not reopened everything. New Zealand has gone from Stage Four restrictions (near-total lockdown) to Stage Three restrictions (still over 75% locked down). New Zealand is not letting anyone from outside the country in for the foreseeable future, with the possible exceptions of Australians if we manage to get to as good a state of containment as they have eventually.

Even if you could get in there, do you want to risk figure skating and the ISU being spoken of in New Zealand in the same terms of anger and fear that the Ruby Princess is talked of in Australia?

That's true. We are still essentially in lockdown and our borders are closed. Even if we get to Alert Level 0 (i.e., no restrictions), I don't think we'll be in any hurry to open our borders and even we did, the main problem will be getting here. I have an elderly parent overseas. It's a big worry. My post was flippant and maybe open to misunderstanding. Sorry if I upset anyone.

 

[WeakAnkles]

I’m from New Zealand too and we should be in level 2 within about 10 days. I wish other countries would be smart and do what we are doing [emoji31] can’t believe how stupid the USA is

:disagree:

It's uncalled for to single out any individual country. There's plenty of stupidity to go around, both on a national and on an individual level.

 

[Harriet]

That's true. We are still essentially in lockdown and our borders are closed. Even if we get to Alert Level 0 (i.e., no restrictions), I don't think we'll be in any hurry to open our borders and even we did, the main problem will be getting here. I have an elderly parent overseas. It's a big worry. My post was flippant and maybe open to misunderstanding. Sorry if I upset anyone.

You're fine, Sai Bon, I'm just tetchy at the moment. Two members of my family are paramedics and even though I live in an area with low infection rates, both have been put at risk as a result of doing COVID-19 transports, and so has their daughter. Wherever I go on the internet lately I seem to see people suggesting Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, etc as 'solutions' to problems that aren't even actually problems without either acknowledging all the hard work involved in bringing our infection rates down or registering that turning us into the location for whatever it is they want done and can't do at home would undo all that hard work and send our risk of a second/subsequent wave of infections skyrocketing, which means putting my family, who I haven't seen for two months now, at risk, and now every last nerve I have starts shredding at anything that even looks like that suggestion. Sorry for spouting off as a result. Also sorry to IndiaP12.

 

[CoyoteChris]

This is it! In one month will shall find out if Sweden can hold its deaths to only 8 times what the rate is in the US. (the dotted line) But the zone of uncertainty is mostly up, not down. This might be the greatest experiment in herd immunity ever. Holland gave up, UK gave up...will Sweden?

 

[IndiaP12]

:disagree:

It's uncalled for to single out any individual country. There's plenty of stupidity to go around, both on a national and on an individual level.

I know, but I’m not going to list all of them obviously [emoji28] USA is a prime example. Sweden is another. No restrictions on closing shops, how many people are allowed in supermarkets etc at a time, people allowed at beaches, mingling with extended family. That’s what we are not doing here and it’s why we are already out of the worst stage after a month. Our prime minister needs to go round and sort out the other countries [emoji28] if everyone was strict early on things would be much better but sadly that can’t be the case

 

[WeakAnkles]

I know, but I’m not going to list all of them obviously [emoji28] USA is a prime example. Sweden is another. No restrictions on closing shops, how many people are allowed in supermarkets etc at a time, people allowed at beaches, mingling with extended family. That’s what we are not doing here and it’s why we are already out of the worst stage after a month. Our prime minister needs to go round and sort out the other countries [emoji28] if everyone was strict early on things would be much better but sadly that can’t be the case

That just made the offensiveness worse.

My Mom always says if you have to knock someone or something else to bolster your point, then it doesn't say much for your point.

 

[surimi]

That just made the offensiveness worse.

My Mom always says if you have to knock someone or something else to bolster your point, then it doesn't say much for your point.

Very well said. And I agree this convo would look good in one of our coronavirus threads.

IndiaP12, I hope you realize you've just basicaly called millions of people 'stupid', a number of whom don't agree with the official policies. Certain people in the government plus their supporters, does not equal a country. And in the same breath, you're boasting about your country, setting is as example for everyone... Not cool. :disagree: Like WeakAnkles, I find your words offensive, and I am not even from the US.

 

[Tingeling]

This is it! In one month will shall find out if Sweden can hold its deaths to only 8 times what the rate is in the US. (the dotted line) But the zone of uncertainty is mostly up, not down. This might be the greatest experiment in herd immunity ever. Holland gave up, UK gave up...will Sweden?

The Swedish death rate is not 8 times that of the US. In Sweden they're only testing people who are critically ill (and medical staff) thus the actual number of cases is many, many times higher than reported. Those numbers frankly mean nothing.

A more accurate (but still incredibly flawed) comparison would be looking at deaths per million people: currently 262 for Sweden vs. 203 for the US.

Sweden's crucial mistake was not taking enough measures to isolate nursing/retirement homes. Otherwise things seem to be going more or less according to plan and there is no talk of imposing further restrictions (probably too late now, anyway).

 

[Edwin]

Sweden's crucial mistake was not taking enough measures to isolate nursing/retirement homes. Otherwise things seem to be going more or less according to plan and there is no talk of imposing further restrictions (probably too late now, anyway).

I believe many governments made this fatal mistake. Nursing/retirement homes became death traps in almost every European country with whole wings dying in a week. And many old people who've died haven't been tested, so actual deaths per million are many hundreds higher compared to the tally of deaths registered in hospitals and ICU.

 

[Tingeling]

I believe many governments made this fatal mistake. Nursing/retirement homes became death traps in almost every European country with whole wings dying in a week. And many old people who've died haven't been tested, so actual deaths per million are many hundreds higher compared to the tally of deaths registered in hospitals and ICU.

Right, it's also difficult to compare numbers as, from my understanding, some countries are not counting all deaths where the deceased tested positive for COVID-19 but only those where COVID-19 was the direct cause of death.

Perhaps a year from now the picture will be clearer, but long-term effects will be even harder to measure.

 

[Edwin]

Right, it's also difficult to compare numbers as, from my understanding, some countries are not counting all deaths where the deceased tested positive for COVID-19 but only those where COVID-19 was the direct cause of death.

Perhaps a year from now the picture will be clearer, but long-term effects will be even harder to measure.

Our statisticians are already at work using the term 'excess mortality' to quantify the effect of the Covid-19 induced deaths. For it is reasonably certain the excess is created by Covid-19 even without testing results of every deceased person being available.

 

[CoyoteChris]

The Swedish death rate is not 8 times that of the US. In Sweden they're only testing people who are critically ill (and medical staff) thus the actual number of cases is many, many times higher than reported. Those numbers frankly mean nothing.

A more accurate (but still incredibly flawed) comparison would be looking at deaths per million people: currently 262 for Sweden vs. 203 for the US.

Sweden's crucial mistake was not taking enough measures to isolate nursing/retirement homes. Otherwise things seem to be going more or less according to plan and there is no talk of imposing further restrictions (probably too late now, anyway).

Sorry, your math is a bit faulty. Sweden has about 10 million people. The US has about 320 million. That means that there are 32 US for every Swede. There is our multiplication factor.
Sweden is on track to loose about 17,000 people. Multiply that by 32 and you get 544,000. But if you look at the graph, the error is all up and little down.
The US in on track to loose 72,000. Divide 544,000 by 72,000 and you get 7.5. But of course that is about the best case senario for now. Models are only models. But they have been darned accruate all things considered. I hope for Sweden's sake the models are all wet. But right now, they are just starting their rise..... 2 weeks should tell.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden

 

[NaVi]

Sorry, your math is a bit faulty. Sweden has about 10 million people. The US has about 320 million. That means that there are 32 US for every Swede. There is our multiplication factor.
Sweden is on track to loose about 17,000 people. Multiply that by 32 and you get 544,000. But if you look at the graph, the error is all up and little down.
The US in on track to loose 72,000. Divide 544,000 by 72,000 and you get 7.5. But of course that is about the best case senario for now. Models are only models. But they have been darned accruate all things considered. I hope for Sweden's sake the models are all wet. But right now, they are just starting their rise..... 2 weeks should tell.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden

That's a really weird site. The person you're replying to is probably going off of this: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This projection for the US is bad... some days it's "projecting" have already gone by and it's only listing about half the deaths. We will past 72,000 this week: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

We currently have about ~10,000 deaths a week and it's on pace to decline about ~700 deaths a week. If that were to continue to zero at that pace it would mean around another 76000 deaths.

 

[Tingeling]

Sorry, your math is a bit faulty. Sweden has about 10 million people. The US has about 320 million. That means that there are 32 US for every Swede. There is our multiplication factor.
Sweden is on track to loose about 17,000 people. Multiply that by 32 and you get 544,000. But if you look at the graph, the error is all up and little down.
The US in on track to loose 72,000. Divide 544,000 by 72,000 and you get 7.5. But of course that is about the best case senario for now. Models are only models. But they have been darned accruate all things considered. I hope for Sweden's sake the models are all wet. But right now, they are just starting their rise..... 2 weeks should tell.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden

Sorry, some sloppy reading/replying on my part as you were only talking about projected deaths, but as NaVi pointed out, that graph makes no sense at all. The US will surpass 70,000 deaths this week already. It's also incorrect or at least highly debatable that Sweden are just starting their rise, because looking at more detailed charts, deaths have plateaued.

Anyway, I was referring to the current number of deaths per million as reported by Johns Hopkins University.