Does anyone think Michelle has a chance?

[MKbeauty]

re: MK

Mzheng & Jesslily:
Many thanks for the MK info. - makes the off-season a little easier.

Antmanb:
Nice analogy of MK, IS & SC. I agree with most of your comments; however, I'm not ready to join the "MK is becoming inconsistent" bandwagon just yet. She's been reworking her jump technique and skating a reduced schedule, yet still managed to win 3/5 competitions this season.

On Topic
What's most important is that Michelle believes she has a chance. If she didn't, I'm sure she wouldn't be working so hard and putting in all the long training hours.

What she needs most is to up her spin levels and add some transitions (a 3/3 would also be a plus). She scored top marks for her LP footwork and SP spiral sequence at Worlds. I'm anxious to see what she and Tatiana have created for next season.

 

[R.D.]

I'm just curious why you think that Michelle's performances "have been all over the map".

She did great at 03 Nats and worlds, then came back in 2003-04 with only an OK performance at Campbell's and got beat by Cohen there, then went to 2004 Nats and was great (in the last minute of the FS). At 04 worlds, she stumbled in the QR and then had that time issue in the SP. In the FS, she was much better.
Then at 04 Campbell's she was alright but good enough to win. She was tentative at 05 Nationals but it was still good enough for her to win. Then she struggled at 05 worlds QR, made somewhat of a comeback but just missed the podium.

P.S. It doesn't matter if she was THIS close to the podium or not. Bottom line is, she missed it, and she has to see it that way. Just like in a team sport, a loss is still a loss no matter whether it was by one point or twenty points, because in the end, it's still a mark in that "L" column.

 

[R.D.]

As far as pressure is concerned, what is it about MK that you think she will be in such a bad state of mind at the Olys?

I explained in another post what she might be up against. It's only speculation, though. She may not be the favorite (and if she is, it's that much more pressure) but it IS her last shot at OLY Gold. Will she let that opportunity slip away? Like you said, she MUST take risks. And I just don't see her doing that in this stage of the game.

Unless she wants to just enjoy the experience once more. But in her words, she wants to "go for it" one more time, so I assume that "it" is OLY Gold. She doesn't need another Silver or Bronze as she already owns those.

Who I think will melt under the pressure: Cohen (no doubt in my mind), Kostner, possibly Slutskaya. Maybe a few others as well. The Japanese are the dark horses this time around, IMO. (unless you want to add MK in there as well).

P.S. Just walked into Sears today and saw the ad for Torino 2006 on NBC. Kwan was one of the featured athletes of the program.

 

[attyfan]

... . She may not be the favorite (and if she is, it's that much more pressure) but it IS her last shot at OLY Gold. Will she let that opportunity slip away? ... Unless she wants to just enjoy the experience once more. But in her words, she wants to "go for it" one more time, so I assume that "it" is OLY Gold. She doesn't need another Silver or Bronze as she already owns those ... .

The "it" that Michelle might be "going for" might just be having the skate of her life at Olys -- with less pressure to get gold because a medal of any color (especially if she has the skate of her life) would be a triumph. After all, how many ladies singles skaters have 3 Oly medals of any color?

 

[heyang]

I had to go back to the 1st post to remember the original question.

Could she medal? Absolutely. She just missed the podium at World's. There are a lot of 'what if's... but the bad QR did have an effect since she lost bronze by less than 1 point. I think she will learn from her experience and hopefully will go for the points this year.

Will she win Gold? Not impossible, but (as much as I hate to admit it) I don't think that she's the favorite for gold based upon last year only.

As Joe said, it's really too soon to tell and anything can happen.


I was trying to remember the Ladies Oly Battles:
02 - MK vs IS
98 - MK was definite favorite, but TL was reigning World Champion.
94 - Oksana reigning Champ vs sweetheart Nancy.
92 - Kristi vs Midori
88 - Katerina vs Debbie
84 - Katerina vs Roz vs Zayak (I added Elaine because my memory of Oly coverage involved Elaine more than Roz)

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Red Dog - Much of your posts appear to be full of ifs and maybees. You don't take risks.

Joe

 

[Mathman]

Vixen62025 -- great post!

For me though, there still is that question of whether her body will cooperate accordingly. She has not elaborated on this, but we have heard in the past few years about nagging hip and back issues. I "think" that is why she dropped out of SA last year.

Sadly and against the hopes of my heart, I have to agree with that. No one else has subjected their body to the constant pounding of all those triple jumps for a decade, and come out totally injury free. Quite a few famous skaters were forced into early retirement by chronic hip, knee and back problems.

Trying to save your body physically, that's the only way I can make any sense out of what seems to be the prevailing strategy, not just for Michelle but for many experienced skaters. That stategy seems to be -- come out in the fall with a crapola version of your program and hope somehow to add something to it to make it acceptable by the time Worlds or the Olympics roll around.

Michelle (and Tarasova, Arutunian, etc., etc., etc.) has from now until the middle of October to get a CoP-worthy program together. I hope we do not have another season of hearing, "well, it's a work in progress," after each performance. Why not make the progress now?

Mathman

 

[attyfan]

Michelle has said over the past three years that she was "saving her body"; she said that, even though failing to do the GP has put her behind, she didn't regret skipping it because of the injury rate. Maybe, the "taking it easy" for the past three years means she will be in better shape to "take it harder" for the upcoming Olys.

 

[tripleflutz]

OGM chances

Once I get past my desire to see Michelle win the OGM and brush aside all the angles different people have come up with to devine her chances.
Well, whats left are the facts that jump out at me, that its been some time since Michelle pulled off a 3/3 in a competion. Also, Michelle gave up on her 3Loop, leaving it out of her programs at Worlds. In addition she failed to complete a 3Sal at Worlds. And on top of that all her levels were 1 or 2 except for one level 3 in one program only, while Irina and Sasha were getting all level 2 or 3 except for maybe a single level 1 in one program only.

ask yourself
Will a skater win without a 3/3?
Will a skater win without having all the triples? (but not 3A)
Can a skater win without at least some level 3s in each program?

So I've come to belive that Michelle can only win the Gold at Turin if the top competitors all skate poorly. She could possibly win, but I think at this point Michelle has become a bit of a long shot, because there are now too many ladies that can outpoint her if they skate their best. Irina, Sasha, Shizuka for sure, and possibly others, because the up and commers are improving each year while some of Michelle's technical skills seem to be in decline.

And on top of that I think Michelle will still have the most pressure because the press is going to hype the story of the 5 time World Champ making her third try for the gold. She still the biggest name in ladies skating and will have the most publicity of all the skaters, win or lose.

tripleflutz.

 

[MKbeauty]

re. MK

ask yourself
Will a skater win without a 3/3?
Sasha doesn't have a 3/3, Irina completes hers sporatically, and Michelle beat Carolina Kostner on the TES score at Worlds, even though Carolina completed a 3F/3T/2L and MK had a fall.

Will a skater win without having all the triples? (but not 3A)
That depends on what their jump strategy is, i.e., how they can maximize their points under the NJS. In Michelle's case, completing 2 flips and 2 lutzes and eliminating the loop gives her more points under the NJS.

Can a skater win without at least some level 3s in each program?
This is key. As I've said previously, Michelle needs to up her spin levels. From practice reports, she is working hard on spins. Last season, she chose to go for easier positions and try for higher GOE. Unfortunately, as she learned at Worlds, the judges aren't marking this way. She's capable of level 3 spirals (which would be level 4 next season with the rule changes) and her footwork is close to level 3. Enter Tatiana Tarosova.

I'm curious why you think Shizuka is a favorite while counting out Michelle? She really didn't skate well last season - her 3/3's were downgraded to 3/2's and her element levels are mostly 2's and 1's. (Don't get me wrong, is one of my favorite skaters).

There are just so many great skaters out there, and so many things that can happen. It's really hard to make any predictions before the new season begins.

 

[nymkfan51]

I've spent the last hour reviewing the judges detailed scores from Worlds, and actually I see a lot to be hopeful about if you are a Michelle fan.

Looking at the SP's ... there are 3 spins, plus a sprial and a step sequence.
Irina had two level 2 spins, level 2 footwork and a level 3 spiral.

Sasha had all level 2 spins, level 2 footwork and a level 3 sprial.

MK had 2 level 1 spins, 1 level 2 spin, level 2 footwork and a level 3 spiral. In fact, with the GOE, Michelle scored the most for her spiral.

Carolina had 2 level 1 spins, 1 level 2 spin, and level 2 footwork and spirals.

I looked at the LP's also and they follow the same basic patterns for these skaters.
What I am encouraged about is that I know Michelle can do level 4 spirals and footwork. I have no doubt about it. The spins are a different story. What she needs to do is just add a variation to her layback to bring it to a level 2, plus work on the other spins to bring as many of them as she can up a level. She doesn't need to spin like Sasha or Irina ... it would really IMO waste a lot of precious time and energy for her, on something she's likely never going to be able to perfect anyway. Considering the way she trained for her first COP, she did remarkably well. I'm not making excuses for her because clearly she did what she thought was best and has to live with results. I just think that if she is actually approaching this season the way it seems we are hearing right now, I have good vibes about what the results could be.
I fully expect her to be doing a loop again, so that's not an issue. I also don't expect she will fall on her salchow. The only question mark for the jumps is how well she will do with a 3/3. But I have a good feeling about that too.
I'm not saying I think she's going to win because frankly, there are just too many good skaters out there. It's putting it on the line when the time is right that will decide ... and who knows if this just might be that time for her.

 

[tripleflutz]

OGM chances

I'm just trying to look at Michelle's skating objectively, without emotion, to appraise her chances.

1. Sasha doesn't have a 3/3, and she doesn't have gold medals either. But when she's clean, she usually outpoints Michelle. So if Sasha can skate her best in each program, she could win.

2. Michelle really does need all the triples to compete with Irina and Shizuka, because Michelle still gets dinged for flutzing by some international judges, because her lutz is borderline. Irina and Shizuka don't flutz!

3. After all these years, I don't see Michelle becoming a superior spinner no matter how hard she works at it. Spinning has always been a weakness for her, and the layback she's been doing for a number of years is very weak. She once had a much better layback, but because of back pain she has to do the simple one. And I don't think she'll learn to spin any faster, she's been trying to do that for a long time.

4. I can't imagine how she'll get higher marks for her spiral, since everyone does the change of edge now, its become standard, and is no longer unique. Many do the change of edge in the bielmann position, which is more difficult and those are the ones who will get the high level marks.

5. there are just too many level 1s and 2s in her skating, I don't think its humanly possible to upgrade so many things in one off season.

2005 WORLDS Scoring LEVELS---LONG Program, where most of the scoring comes from

giving one point for each level, just to show the difference

IRINA-------------15 points
3 level 3s
3 level 2s

SASHA.-----------14 points
2 level 3s
4 level 2s

MIKI----------------12 points
1 level 3
4 level 2s
1 level 1

SHIZUKA----------12 points
6 level 2s

ELENA L.----------10 points
4 level 2s
2 level 1s

MICHELLE---------10 points
4 LEVEL 2s
2 LEVEL 1s

FUMIE---------------10 points
1 level 3
3 level 2s
1 level 1

ELENA S.------------10 points
4 level 2s
2 level 1s

SARAH M.------------10 points
1 level 3
2 level 2s
3 level 1s

JULIA S.---------------10 points
1 level 3
2 level 2s
3 level 1s



But, with all that said, if the other top skaters don't come through, and none of the young ones step up, then the door just might be open wide enough for an experienced champion skater like Michelle to sieze the moment. So I'm not counting her out, but I do think a Michelle OGM is a long shot.


tripleflutz

 

[nymkfan51]

I'm just trying to look at Michelle's skating objectively, without emotion, to appraise her chances.

1. Sasha doesn't have a 3/3, and she doesn't have gold medals either. But when she's clean, she usually outpoints Michelle. So if Sasha can skate her best in each program, she could win.

2. Michelle really does need all the triples to compete with Irina and Shizuka, because Michelle still gets dinged for flutzing by some international judges, because her lutz is borderline. Irina and Shizuka don't flutz!

3. After all these years, I don't see Michelle becoming a superior spinner no matter how hard she works at it. Spinning has always been a weakness for her, and the layback she's been doing for a number of years is very weak. She once had a much better layback, but because of back pain she has to do the simple one. And I don't think she'll learn to spin any faster, she's been trying to do that for a long time.

4. I can't imagine how she'll get higher marks for her spiral, since everyone does the change of edge now, its become standard, and is no longer unique. Many do the change of edge in the bielmann position, which is more difficult and those are the ones who will get the high level marks.

5. there are just too many level 1s and 2s in her skating, I don't think its humanly possible to upgrade so many things in one off season.

Just want to respond to a few things you said.
You say that when Sasha is clean she usually outpoints Michelle ... well considering MK has only competed once under this NJS, I'm not sure what other times you would be referring to. Besides which, how often does Sasha skate cleanly?
Also ... Michelle will never be a superior spinner to Sasha or probably even Irina, but that is not to say that she can't make ample improvement.
In addition, doing the COE spiral is one thing, doing it like Michelle does is a totally different ballgame. Noone out there does it at the level she does. Where she can improve is by adding to it, which she has already done last season. Michelle scored better than both Sasha and Irina in this department, even with the Bielmans.
And as to what is humanly possible ... these things certainly are.

 

[bdreampixie]

I'm just trying to look at Michelle's skating objectively, without emotion, to appraise her chances.

1. Sasha doesn't have a 3/3, and she doesn't have gold medals either. But when she's clean, she usually outpoints Michelle. So if Sasha can skate her best in each program, she could win.

2. Michelle really does need all the triples to compete with Irina and Shizuka, because Michelle still gets dinged for flutzing by some international judges, because her lutz is borderline. Irina and Shizuka don't flutz!

3. After all these years, I don't see Michelle becoming a superior spinner no matter how hard she works at it. Spinning has always been a weakness for her, and the layback she's been doing for a number of years is very weak. She once had a much better layback, but because of back pain she has to do the simple one. And I don't think she'll learn to spin any faster, she's been trying to do that for a long time.

4. I can't imagine how she'll get higher marks for her spiral, since everyone does the change of edge now, its become standard, and is no longer unique. Many do the change of edge in the bielmann position, which is more difficult and those are the ones who will get the high level marks.

5. there are just too many level 1s and 2s in her skating, I don't think its humanly possible to upgrade so many things in one off season.


But, with all that said, if the other top skaters don't come through, and none of the young ones step up, then the door just might be open wide enough for an experienced champion skater like Michelle to sieze the moment. So I'm not counting her out, but I do think a Michelle OGM is a long shot.


tripleflutz

1. when have Michelle and Sasha both skated clean in one comp.? I must have missed that one.

2. Irina's lutz is just as borderline as Michelle's. Shiz has a true lutz, but has a very bad lip. The problem for MK is that recently her solo 3 lutz has become very inconsistent for her. She's been skidding off on it.

3. MK is a steady spinner. Good centering, good positions, and ok speed. She does need more difficulty in her spins, but I don't think it's as impossible for her to upgrade her spins as others seem to think. MK has her tricks. BTW, her layback got some good + GOE points from the judges for being such a simple one.

4. MK's spiral received higher +points than Irina's Biellman Spiral. MK's just needs to make sure she holds her fan spiral out for 3 seconds to receive L3. That is her main problem. Personally, I wish she'd get rid of the fan spiral, it's not a good spiral for her.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

.

ask yourself
Will a skater win without a 3/3?
Will a skater win without having all the triples? (but not 3A)
Can a skater win without at least some level 3s in each program?

Very thought provoking questions, and certainly pertinent to Michelle, but I think they are pertinent to all the competitors too. Just who, will be the consistent one if all the others have the above?

And on top of that I think Michelle will still have the most pressure because the press is going to hype the story of the 5 time World Champ making her third try for the gold. She still the biggest name in ladies skating and will have the most publicity of all the skaters, win or lose.

I can't believe no one else will have as much pressure as you perceive MK will have. Irina, desperately after that GM, and to complete the Russian sweep. Sasha will probably not give it a 3rd try in 2010 so this is it. Carolina in front of her hometwon audience. Shizuka who must save face with this Olys. Kimmie expected to continue the tradition of the teenage wonders.

Why single out Michelle to have the "most pressure"?

My way of thinking is that she is going to skate a beautiful final LP choreographed by TT. If she does not get the GM, It won't be because of nerves. There are others out there with more point gathering, and one of them is bound to hit.

Joe

 

[tripleflutz]

Sasha HAS come out of the SP at NATS and WORLDS with leads over Michelle before this, but she's always blown it with multiple falls in the LP. I don't know if she'll ever be able to keep it together, but who knows, there is such a thing as the law of averages, she might. Look at Tara and Sarah, and who both came up with the skate of their lives at 98 and 02 Olympics. Don't count Sasha out, she's been close and could go all the way if she can keep her focus.


And to those who are counting on Michelle to make a host of improvements, actually close to reinvent herself in a few months, I think they're asking way too much of Michelle. I don't think its humanly possible for a 25 year old skater to suddenly improve in so many areas in one off season. Michelle doesn't train that way, and if she tried it she might burn out before Nats. I think Michelle will keep doing what she's done in the past few years, skip the GP of maybe just one comp. and skip the finals. She'll try to save her body for Nats. and the Olym.

My guess is that she'll skate in...
CAMPBELL'S
SKATE AMERICA (Possibly)
Winter MARSHALL'S

...all of these will be using COP this season, so they should provide the feedback she wants, without all the extra training and travel that doing the whole GP series would demand.

I think she'll tweak her program at best she can, maybe hold the spiral longer, try to regain all her jumps, and a few other little things etc. but still be pretty much the same skater at Nats as she has been the last few years.


tripleflutz

 

[nymkfan51]

Right ... Sasha has beat a clean Michelle in SP's in the past. Sadly for her the competition doesn't end with the SP.

And regarding this humanly possible thing ... I have to admit I find it a bit extreme to think that for a world class skater to improve in several areas over a course of a year would be considered not humanly possible.
I mean gee ... we're not expecting her to walk on water. Or are we?

 

[tripleflutz]

....MICHELLE has said that her body can't take more training than she's been doing for the past few years. And the amount of training she can do produces a MICHELLE skating at the level we've seen.
....She says her body doesn't recover like a teenagers, So I can't see her suddenly switching to a heavy training schedule and traning up from now until the OLYM in Feb., in order to raise her levels in addition to regaining her jumps, and becoming a superior spinner, if she tries it she'll use herself up and burn out the way Irina did more than once.
....Even more likely would be an accumulation of minor injuries that would interfere with training and possibly affect her performance at Nats. in Jan. Maybe a 16 or 17 year old could train and train, but someone Michelle's age can't.
....Now, remembering that I want to talk objective, real world issues, not wishful thinking, and if, as she's said, in recent years, she's been doing as much as her body would allow. HOW CAN SHE DO SO MUCH MORE?

tripleflutz

 

[Skate Sandee]

Why single out Michelle to have the "most pressure"?

Joe

Of course the other top skaters have to deal with the type of pressure you describe. But there's a difference between personal/competition pressure and MEDIA pressure. In the US, I'm sure Michelle will get the Dan Jansen treatment and - even if she's a long shot for a OGM - be subjected to the same level of intense MEDIA pressure that she felt in 98 and 02. The only difference this time around is that she won't be expected to win, but the media focus will be there to play it up nonetheless. In Italy, Carolina will also get that attention from Italian media, and Irina from Russian media.

 

[mzheng]

Right ... Sasha has beat a clean Michelle in SP's in the past. Sadly for her the competition doesn't end with the SP.

Once. At 2004 Worlds. The other times were all MK made mistakes in SP.

As for Olympics pressure, I don't think she'll be in the same pressure as in 2002 (Her coach may have more pressure than she has). She even helped to promote Sasha and Irina in her last interview 'Sasha and Irina have it going for them now'. (something in this line) From all her public interview since after 2003/2004 season, something truely changed in her view of FS competetion to her. She was even able to gaga up in a interview after 2004 worlds interview when talking about the streaker. May be she is truely having some 'fun' out there.

She is 'thinner', hope she geting 'meanner' as Frank described her once.