GP assigments 2013/2014

[sky_fly20]

No, Julia's jumps are not above average. She, Zijun Li, and Elena Radionova are average jumpers. Gracie Gold, Carolina Kostner, Mao Asada, and Yuna Kim are "above average."

anyone with clear vision can tell Julia has bigger jumps comapared to Radionova, even those who have seen them competing live
Radionova is below average or borderline Miyahara ( aka Microscopic jumps ).

I am sorry I mistyped that as it was about average
and to clarify Kim and Gracie are not above average they have huge jumps that get tight and nice air position

 

[tulosai]

So I made my own spreadsheet, and I predict that, for ladies, Carolina, Yuna, Mao ,Ashley, Julia, and Adelina make the final, with Gracie, Liza, and Akiko as other strong possibilities to make the final. This season should be exciting.

 

[ForeverFish]

So I made my own spreadsheet, and I predict that, for ladies, Carolina, Yuna, Mao ,Ashley, Julia, and Adelina make the final, with Gracie, Liza, and Akiko as other strong possibilities to make the final. This season should be exciting.

Quite similar to mine, then. I wouldn't have both Julia and Adelina making the final, but I think that Adelina is a strong possibility if she fixes her technical issues. I'm putting a good deal of money on Gracie and Kanako, as well as the top four.

 

[ForeverFish]

anyone with clear vision can tell Julia has bigger jumps comapared to Radionova, even those who have seen them competing live
Radionova is below average or borderline Miyahara ( aka Microscopic jumps ).

I am sorry I mistyped that as it was about average
and to clarify Kim and Gracie are not above average they have huge jumps that get tight and nice air position

Julia has better jumps than Radionova, and Li has better jumps than Julia. To me, they are all average jumpers -- usually decent, but rarely spectacular. Huge jumps and good air position, a la Kim and Gold, are most definitely above average.

 

[vera01]

So I made my own spreadsheet, and I predict that, for ladies, Carolina, Yuna, Mao ,Ashley, Julia, and Adelina make the final, with Gracie, Liza, and Akiko as other strong possibilities to make the final. This season should be exciting.

Hmm, I thought Gracie and Akiko has more chance than Julia or Adelina when it comes to qualifying for Finals.

 

[chuckm]

hmm, i thought gracie and akiko has more chance than julia or adelina when it comes to qualifying for finals.

ita

 

[sky_fly20]

Gracie will make the GPF, Akiko has to mountain climb again this season though not impossible as proven by her longevity but she is getting too old turning 29 this year right ?
I predict only 1 Russian lady to go to GPF and that will be the token for Russia in the whole Olympics Season in Sochi

 

[chuckm]

Akiko Suzuki just turned 28 in March.

 

[tulosai]

Hmm, I thought Gracie and Akiko has more chance than Julia or Adelina when it comes to qualifying for Finals.

I think Adelina has a great chance.Who's going to beat her at CoC? Carolina, for sure. Kanako, maybe. She can beat Kanako though, if clean or close to it, even if Kanako is clean. No one else, IMO, has a realistic change of beating her there based on what we know now. Who is going to beat her at TEB? Ashley, most likely, and Yuna, for sure. No one else there other than Korpi has a realistic chance of beating her, and I just have a feeling Korpi won't be in form this season. I think that Adelina could beat Ashley if totally clean.

Gracie has the bad luck to be stuck at SC. Yuna will beat her, and Akiko should beat her but may or may not. Julia, and Kiira can all beat her. Some think Osmond can beat her. So she is at best second there and is in a much more loaded field- she could be as low as 5th (6th if you are an Osmond supporter). At NHK Mao, Suzuki, and actually, IMO, Radionova can all beat her (though we will have to see how Radionova is received). So she is potentially second but also potentially as low as 4.

Both these analyses assume everyone is skating close to their best. Some might try to claim Adelina has more problems with nerves than Gracie but I don't think that is a fair assumption at this point. Both have the potential to mess up. Even when she messes up Adelina is scored very well by the judges- better, so far, than Gracie when she has messed up, though I will admit Gracie is gaining international cred that Adelina was lucky enough to already have.

 

[gmyers]

Gracie will make the GPF, Akiko has to mountain climb again this season though not impossible as proven by her longevity but she is getting too old turning 29 this year right ?
I predict only 1 Russian lady to go to GPF and that will be the token for Russia in the whole Olympics Season in Sochi

You don't think the token will be a euro medal? Gpf is almost impossible for a Russian skater.

 

[AlexRus]

I think Adelina has a great chance.Who's going to beat her at CoC? Carolina, for sure. Kanako, maybe.

How can we make predictions?

Ladies are so unpredictable.
Kanako's scores, for example, were 166-168 at GP Events, and 181-190 at 4CC and Worlds.
Adelina had 158 at CoR and 194 at Euro.
Who of them will win other at GP-2013 - nobody knows.

 

[gmyers]

You don't think the token will be a euro medal? Gpf is almost impossible for a Russian skater.

Good analysis of Julia's jumps ForeverFish. I totally agree. I don't think Julia's jumps are doomed but I do think her days of 3-3s are numbered if she doesn't tweak her technique in terms of her air position and control. She's getting by with that forward pitch/tilt on her landing (similar to Sotnikova's) but that could become problematic in the future.

As for Sotnikova, she does have faulty technique in some of her jumps but I wouldn't say it's irreparable or even terrible...it just needs to be adjusted, mainly the takeoff. But it's a problem that won't get better until they fix it, so they need to go ahead and fix it. I'm sure if the fans see there is an issue there then her team should see there's an issue there. If they sit on the problem and don't take steps toward fixing it, she will have a very hard time skating consistently enough to really make a name for herself.

They probably won't fix it tip after Sochi though. Her coach is tarasova and look what she did with Mao not fixing anything and just hoping for the best unfortunately sotnikova has no 3a so shell be hoping her Flutz don't get too much negative goe and pray 2 out of the three flips work and not only 1 or doing poorly on the flip doesn't cost her a 3 jump combo. But the 3 jump combo should be moved away from the flip so she does 3/3/2 or 2/3/2

 

[FSGMT]

That's a big part of it, though -- small jumps that rely on quick rotations. Julia probably has the smallest jumps of all of the Russian ladies, excluding Radionova, who's so light and tiny that she can't be expected to get more than six or eight inches off of the ice.

I don't think that Julia has terrible technique on her jumps; at least, not in the sense that she'll *certainly* lose them after puberty. Her double axel, of course, is an exception, which is worrying -- struggling with the easiest jump in her repertoire is, to me, indicative of a wider technical issue. But nonetheless, her technique is clearly weaker than Tukt's and Sotnikova's, even with the issues that they presently have.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzPDBIt7pw4

This is Julia's SP at 2012 TEB, when she was in good health. Her opening 3-3 seems fine when she springs up (quite shallow on the outside edge; almost pushing an edge call), but midway through the rotations her body loses its center of gravity and tilts to the side, which suggests a lack of control in the air. This could be part of the reason why her landing is shaky -- it reminds me a lot of Sotnikova's 3-3, with the heavy forward lean that makes the back-end triple extremely difficult to rotate. Julia can do it now, because her figure is very slight and aerodynamic, but if she ends up with a body like Sotnikova's, she could be in trouble.

For comparison, this is Gracie Gold's 3-3: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWVDqTmzT1Q. It's higher than Julia's, but it also has a deep outside edge and a fluidity about the rotations, and it's upright and almost perfectly perpendicular to the ice. Gracie easily rotates her 3T because she leans forward just enough on the landing on the 3Lz, allowing her to quickly position herself for a second triple. The one time that Gracie did mimic Julia in terms of jumps (the SP at Worlds), she received a UR call. I'd also point out here that the nervous Gracie *falls* when her triples are tilted like Julia's; Julia stays on her feet (thankfully) because she's accustomed to that mode of jumping, but if she ever struggles with nerves, I'd be loath to see what happens to her jumps.

Does that make sense? Julia's off-balance air position and need to muscle her way through the triple toe suggests a significant technical issue, but not poor technique in the general sense. I referred to 2011 Tukt's technique as "solid and dependable," which are two adjectives I would not attribute to Julia's -- to me, "solid and dependable" does not equal "poor 2A, little height, and barely getting back-end triples around."

Lastly, I appreciate your respect.

Good analysis :agree: but I have to remind you that Julia wasn't healthy at TEB, there was actually a lot of doubts whether she was going to compete at all or not; if you want a clean-and-healthy SP from Julia you have to go back to CoC (pretty similar skate): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lALDBEjdqrs

 

[ForeverFish]

I think Adelina has a great chance.Who's going to beat her at CoC? Carolina, for sure. Kanako, maybe. She can beat Kanako though, if clean or close to it, even if Kanako is clean. No one else, IMO, has a realistic change of beating her there based on what we know now. Who is going to beat her at TEB? Ashley, most likely, and Yuna, for sure. No one else there other than Korpi has a realistic chance of beating her, and I just have a feeling Korpi won't be in form this season. I think that Adelina could beat Ashley if totally clean.

Gracie has the bad luck to be stuck at SC. Yuna will beat her, and Akiko should beat her but may or may not. Julia, and Kiira can all beat her. Some think Osmond can beat her. So she is at best second there and is in a much more loaded field- she could be as low as 5th (6th if you are an Osmond supporter). At NHK Mao, Suzuki, and actually, IMO, Radionova can all beat her (though we will have to see how Radionova is received). So she is potentially second but also potentially as low as 4.

Both these analyses assume everyone is skating close to their best. Some might try to claim Adelina has more problems with nerves than Gracie but I don't think that is a fair assumption at this point. Both have the potential to mess up. Even when she messes up Adelina is scored very well by the judges- better, so far, than Gracie when she has messed up, though I will admit Gracie is gaining international cred that Adelina was lucky enough to already have.

I don't think Gracie will be sixth at SC; she was sixth in the world, and only one of the skaters who placed ahead of her (Kim) will be present. Gracie can realistically beat Akiko with her TES, as Akiko doesn't attempt the hardest combinations, nor does she get very high PCS (WTT being an exception). I definitely don't think Julia can beat her (she falls behind in both TES and PCS), and of the 4 times that Gracie has met Kaetlyn in competition, she's beat her 3 times.

Radionova, who jumps no more than eight inches off of the ice, won't score anywhere close to Gracie in TES or PCS. We need to remember that a clean Gracie can net 70+ points in TES; over the past season, her PCS had also been inching up (more than three points higher at WTT than at CoR).

 

[gmyers]

Radionova got the base value of every triple excluding axel. She can match the best for base value. But the GOE probably wont be there. But her TES should be good. Unless she starts to UR everything. I just don't think she'll have the PCS of Gracie or anyone else who was in the top 10 at senior worlds. I totally expect her to get the base value of almost all triples and do 3/3 and 3/3 sequences like she was doing. With her in juniors when she did a 3/3 or 3/3 sequence or did a triple jump I don't remember seeing negative GOE on them. Maybe in seniors she will because of lack of height off the ice. Though I can't imagine it being -2 or -3 or even -1. Like I said maybe she'll get base value of all triples not positive GOE.

 

[b-man]

Hmm, I thought Gracie and Akiko has more chance than Julia or Adelina when it comes to qualifying for Finals.

Gold is assigned to SC and NHK, which are two of the toughest ladies fields. Adelina has CoC and TEB which are two of the easier fields. At least it should be easier for her to finish third or fourth. Gold's assignments are something that she can overcome, but there is no margin for error. Adelina will likely need to beat Zijun for a bronze at CoC, and Kanako for a silver. At TEB, she will likely need to beat Korpi for a bronze, and need to beat Wagner for a silver. She will need at least a bronze and a silver to make the final, and may need two silvers. Akiko has the same GP's exactly as Gold, and also has no margin for error. Foreverfish projected Gold with two silvers, beating Suzuki in both competitions, and projected Suzuki with two bronzes and Adelina with two bronzes. I am skeptical that Gold will beat Suzuki twice, especially at NHK. Two bronzes are likely to get you in seventh or eighth place and not in the final.

 

[ForeverFish]

Gold is assigned to SC and NHK, which are two of the toughest ladies fields. Adelina has CoC and TEB which are two of the easier fields. At least it should be easier for her to finish third or fourth. Gold's assignments are something that she can overcome, but there is no margin for error. Adelina will likely need to beat Zijun for a bronze at CoC, and Kanako for a silver. At TEB, she will likely need to beat Korpi for a bronze, and need to beat Wagner for a silver. She will need at least a bronze and a silver to make the final, and may need two silvers. Akiko has the same GP's exactly as Gold, and also has no margin for error. Foreverfish projected Gold with two silvers, beating Suzuki in both competitions, and projected Suzuki with two bronzes and Adelina with two bronzes. I am skeptical that Gold will beat Suzuki twice, especially at NHK. Two bronzes are likely to get you in seventh or eighth place and not in the final.

I don't think Sotnikova is likely to beat Wagner for a silver medal; Wagner has proven herself to be a very strong early-season skater.

A clean Gold can beat Suzuki, I think. The venue won't make much of a difference if Gold performs respectably; her score at WTT for a flawed skate was 188. Suzuki's at 4CC (also very good) was 190. That's a gap that can easily be overcome. For reference, I opt not to count Suzuki's WTT score due to the huge point difference that we didn't see anywhere else in the season; in any case, it's unlikely that she can replicate that competition at both of her GPs.

 

[AlexRus]

Radionova, who jumps no more than eight inches off of the ice, won't score anywhere close to Gracie in TES or PCS.

Radionova had TES score significantly higher than Gold.

Elena's TES scores (SP+FS) of JGP1, JGP3, FJGP, JrWorlds - 100.80, 103.19, 99.33, 91.29
Gracie's TES scores (SP+FS) of GP2, GP4, 4CC, Worlds - 75.55, 89.69, 82.68, 95.45

Elena's average value is 12.81 higher than Gracie's.

 

[sky_fly20]

Radionova had TES score significantly higher than Gold.

Elena's TES scores (SP+FS) of JGP1, JGP3, FJGP, JrWorlds - 100.80, 103.19, 99.33, 91.29
Gracie's TES scores (SP+FS) of GP2, GP4, 4CC, Worlds - 75.55, 89.69, 82.68, 95.45

Elena's average value is 12.81 higher than Gracie's.

that was in juniors
In Seniors she will be hammered in GOE

 

[Jammers]

Once Elena starts growing and isn't tiny and weighs 75 lbs she might start having trouble rotating her jumps. There's a reason why a lot of skaters lose their 3-3 combos when they hit puberty. Like Frank Carroll said it's easy to rotate like a bat out of hell when your 4'10 and 70 lbs.