GP assigments 2013/2014

[gmyers]

If she *knows* she's going to receive < or "e" on her 3-3, it would be better not to attempt it in the first place; she'll get deductions anyway. She can get more points from a clean 3F-2T-2T with positive GOE than a UR'ed or wrong-edge 3F-3T (see Adelina Sotnikova for proof -- her 3Lz-3T in the WTT SP was downgraded and received -1.10 GOE). At that point, a clean 3Lz-2T would have given her more points.

In free skates she chose to do 2/3/2 and 2/3 and not 3/2/2 so the issue of her sp Is something else. She tries 3/3 for combos. Sotnikova has never tried to just a 3/2 she's rather try for 3/3 because she doesn't have the support from judges to cover technical regression. In combos for sp Julia could try 3t/3t or I saw 3s/3t if 3lz/3t stops working because she can't go Out and do 3/2 and get used to that because maybe she couldn't even vet of of Russian nationals if she got too used to 3/2 combos in sp. This idea of getting rid of hard jumps or combos would be too damaging. Julia got close to her old 2012 form in 2013 jr worlds by going backwards by no 3/3 in fs but lost there so they have to maintain hardest possible difficulty. Not do 3/2 in Sps - on purpose!

 

[WeakAnkles]

Well, I think there are a lot of reasons why skaters have good results on home ice. The same is true of other sports, too.

Maybe the skaters soak up the energy of the crowd and perform better. Maybe travel, jet lag, and familiar surroundings play a role. Maybe the judges hear the audience going crazy and subconsciously think, hey, this guy must be doing pretty good.

There may even be a bit of, wouldn't it be cool if the home town favorite won a medal -- the crowd goes home happy and the local club is glad they put up the money to host the event in the first place.

There is definitely something to this. Three examples:

US vs USSR in ice hockey at Lake Placid Olympics
US Women's gymnastics's team taking the gold at Atlanta Olympics
Voir winning the OD over Marlie at Vancouver Olympics (I'm still bummed about that one--Voir deserved the overall gold, but I still think Marlie should have won the OD)

Adrenalin. Home crowd support. It's a winning combination. Often literally.

 

[WeakAnkles]

Nobody has mentioned this yet, but the team I feel bad for is the Shibs. Tough draw for them.

 

[FlattFan]

Nobody has mentioned this yet, but the team I feel bad for is the Shibs. Tough draw for them.

No.
In SA, they are shoo in for the bronze.
In NHK, they will be fighting for the bronze.

At least 1 medal, and a fighting chance for the second, pretty good draw.

In SC, they will be fighting for the bronze, probably wouldn't medal.
In CoC, they are so far behind B/S, P/B, and C/B. No chance of a medal.
In TEB, their chance is the same as NHK, fighting for bronze with I/K.
In CoR, they will be behind B/S, C/B, and W/P. No chance of a medal.

So they are the luckiest second tier team for the GP. Tough draw would be putting them in CoC or CoR and go home empty.

 

[tulosai]

Julia has grown vertically, but without any significant body changes -- she's still very lean and leggy, like the junior Sotnikova. The situation may be different now that she's really getting the full attack of puberty for the first time; Tukt was in the same position a year ago, and had to rework most of her jumps as a result of a broader frame. However, Tukt's jump technique has always been solid and dependable; I can't say the same for Julia.

I don't think Julia will lose her triples, but backend triples will likely prove more difficult for her, at least until she adjusts to her new body. She'll probably find that rotating quickly won't cut it anymore. Another skater who could have similar issues is Zijun Li, who is extremely slender and may or may not be approaching weight gain and body changes.

It's not that I disagree with most of your post, but can you state, specifically why you don't think Julia's jump technique is good? (Exclude the axel, we are all in agreement there). I am not meaning to be rude or pick on you- to the contrary, I respect your opinion as a poster a lot and am wondering what you see that I do not in terms of her technique being bad. (Let's also grant that her jumps are small while she's out there rotating those triple triples- is there something else?)

 

[ForeverFish]

It's not that I disagree with most of your post, but can you state, specifically why you don't think Julia's jump technique is good? (Exclude the axel, we are all in agreement there). I am not meaning to be rude or pick on you- to the contrary, I respect your opinion as a poster a lot and am wondering what you see that I do not in terms of her technique being bad. (Let's also grant that her jumps are small while she's out there rotating those triple triples- is there something else?)

That's a big part of it, though -- small jumps that rely on quick rotations. Julia probably has the smallest jumps of all of the Russian ladies, excluding Radionova, who's so light and tiny that she can't be expected to get more than six or eight inches off of the ice.

I don't think that Julia has terrible technique on her jumps; at least, not in the sense that she'll *certainly* lose them after puberty. Her double axel, of course, is an exception, which is worrying -- struggling with the easiest jump in her repertoire is, to me, indicative of a wider technical issue. But nonetheless, her technique is clearly weaker than Tukt's and Sotnikova's, even with the issues that they presently have.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzPDBIt7pw4

This is Julia's SP at 2012 TEB, when she was in good health. Her opening 3-3 seems fine when she springs up (quite shallow on the outside edge; almost pushing an edge call), but midway through the rotations her body loses its center of gravity and tilts to the side, which suggests a lack of control in the air. This could be part of the reason why her landing is shaky -- it reminds me a lot of Sotnikova's 3-3, with the heavy forward lean that makes the back-end triple extremely difficult to rotate. Julia can do it now, because her figure is very slight and aerodynamic, but if she ends up with a body like Sotnikova's, she could be in trouble.

For comparison, this is Gracie Gold's 3-3: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWVDqTmzT1Q. It's higher than Julia's, but it also has a deep outside edge and a fluidity about the rotations, and it's upright and almost perfectly perpendicular to the ice. Gracie easily rotates her 3T because she leans forward just enough on the landing on the 3Lz, allowing her to quickly position herself for a second triple. The one time that Gracie did mimic Julia in terms of jumps (the SP at Worlds), she received a UR call. I'd also point out here that the nervous Gracie *falls* when her triples are tilted like Julia's; Julia stays on her feet (thankfully) because she's accustomed to that mode of jumping, but if she ever struggles with nerves, I'd be loath to see what happens to her jumps.

Does that make sense? Julia's off-balance air position and need to muscle her way through the triple toe suggests a significant technical issue, but not poor technique in the general sense. I referred to 2011 Tukt's technique as "solid and dependable," which are two adjectives I would not attribute to Julia's -- to me, "solid and dependable" does not equal "poor 2A, little height, and barely getting back-end triples around."

Lastly, I appreciate your respect.

 

[gmyers]

I don't think that on technique sotnikova is better than lipnitskaia or really good in any way other than that she really jumps up. The whole "big jumps" thing but her technique on lutz and flip are very bad and worse than Julia. There is no technique in sotnikova's jumps just power.

 

[drivingmissdaisy]

I don't think that on technique sotnikova is better than lipnitskaia or really good in any way other than that she really jumps up. The whole "big jumps" thing but her technique on lutz and flip are very bad and worse than Julia. There is no technique in sotnikova's jumps just power.

The problem is that big jumps, if done cleanly, are the only ones that will get good GOE. In a competition where you have Julia and Yuna or Carolina, the comparison will not do much to improve her scores. Clearly Adelina has the worst technique of any skater in the history of the sport based on your comments about her, but some judges do not think so.

 

[b-man]

I know a lot of people aren't impressed with Julia, she looks a little jerky and imprecise, but I like her speed and transitions and I enjoy watching her.

 

[gmyers]

The problem is that big jumps, if done cleanly, are the only ones that will get good GOE. In a competition where you have Julia and Yuna or Carolina, the comparison will not do much to improve her scores. Clearly Adelina has the worst technique of any skater in the history of the sport based on your comments about her, but some judges do not think so.

Adelina's flips are not stable. She can land them or single them or fall at any moment. It's worse too for her because a three jump combo was at stake all last season. Sometimes she did the flip started three jump combo but other times she would fall on it or fall on the first solo flip. Then you have her Flutz and ur toe. So she can't get full credit on the toe and judges give her nothing in goe. I am not just talking about goe but base value and points lost. Adelina has problems on technique that's costing her. Her terrible flip technique cost her euros. It's a huge problem for her. Big jumps with good technique are definitely the best. She had to stop doing solo lutzes because her technique is no good and then to try to make up for it she moved to flips where she's so unstable you never know how the jump is going to turn out! It's unfortunate.

 

[sky_fly20]

to clarify Julia doesn't have the smallest jumps as most you make it look like, her 2A may be terrible but the rest of her jumps are above average.

big jumps are nothing when you have terrible technique and lose combos and fall like Sotnikova

 

[Moment]

Julia Lipnitskaia is one of the few skaters who flutzes and lips. I wouldn't say she has better technique than Adelina.

 

[sky_fly20]

Julia got credited with some of her lutzes last season
and she may lip but at least she doesn't fall on it 50-60% of the time like Sotnikova

 

[AlexRus]

Today is 15th birthday of Julia Lipnitskaia. Most important birtday for skater - "Senior" birthday.

Congratulations and good luck for her!

 

[deedee1]

Today is 15th birthday of Julia Lipnitskaia.
Congratulations and good luck for her!

& :yes:

 

[vera01]

I won't say that Julia's jumps are above average. By saying "above average", you're talking about jumps like Gracie's, Yuna's, Liza's and Caro's. I think her jumps are at Zijun Li's level, which is "around average", not "above".

On a side note: Happy birthday to Julia

 

[kwanatic]

Good analysis of Julia's jumps ForeverFish. I totally agree. I don't think Julia's jumps are doomed but I do think her days of 3-3s are numbered if she doesn't tweak her technique in terms of her air position and control. She's getting by with that forward pitch/tilt on her landing (similar to Sotnikova's) but that could become problematic in the future.

As for Sotnikova, she does have faulty technique in some of her jumps but I wouldn't say it's irreparable or even terrible...it just needs to be adjusted, mainly the takeoff. But it's a problem that won't get better until they fix it, so they need to go ahead and fix it. I'm sure if the fans see there is an issue there then her team should see there's an issue there. If they sit on the problem and don't take steps toward fixing it, she will have a very hard time skating consistently enough to really make a name for herself.

 

[ForeverFish]

to clarify Julia doesn't have the smallest jumps as most you make it look like, her 2A may be terrible but the rest of her jumps are above average.

big jumps are nothing when you have terrible technique and lose combos and fall like Sotnikova

No, Julia's jumps are not above average. She, Zijun Li, and Elena Radionova are average jumpers. Gracie Gold, Carolina Kostner, Mao Asada, and Yuna Kim are "above average."

 

[tulosai]

No, Julia's jumps are not above average. She, Zijun Li, and Elena Radionova are average jumpers. Gracie Gold, Carolina Kostner, Mao Asada, and Yuna Kim are "above average."

I actually think Elena is a below average jumper, but maybe it's just me.

 

[tulosai]

That's a big part of it, though -- small jumps that rely on quick rotations. Julia probably has the smallest jumps of all of the Russian ladies, excluding Radionova, who's so light and tiny that she can't be expected to get more than six or eight inches off of the ice.

I don't think that Julia has terrible technique on her jumps; at least, not in the sense that she'll *certainly* lose them after puberty. Her double axel, of course, is an exception, which is worrying -- struggling with the easiest jump in her repertoire is, to me, indicative of a wider technical issue. But nonetheless, her technique is clearly weaker than Tukt's and Sotnikova's, even with the issues that they presently have.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzPDBIt7pw4

This is Julia's SP at 2012 TEB, when she was in good health. Her opening 3-3 seems fine when she springs up (quite shallow on the outside edge; almost pushing an edge call), but midway through the rotations her body loses its center of gravity and tilts to the side, which suggests a lack of control in the air. This could be part of the reason why her landing is shaky -- it reminds me a lot of Sotnikova's 3-3, with the heavy forward lean that makes the back-end triple extremely difficult to rotate. Julia can do it now, because her figure is very slight and aerodynamic, but if she ends up with a body like Sotnikova's, she could be in trouble.

For comparison, this is Gracie Gold's 3-3: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWVDqTmzT1Q. It's higher than Julia's, but it also has a deep outside edge and a fluidity about the rotations, and it's upright and almost perfectly perpendicular to the ice. Gracie easily rotates her 3T because she leans forward just enough on the landing on the 3Lz, allowing her to quickly position herself for a second triple. The one time that Gracie did mimic Julia in terms of jumps (the SP at Worlds), she received a UR call. I'd also point out here that the nervous Gracie *falls* when her triples are tilted like Julia's; Julia stays on her feet (thankfully) because she's accustomed to that mode of jumping, but if she ever struggles with nerves, I'd be loath to see what happens to her jumps.

Does that make sense? Julia's off-balance air position and need to muscle her way through the triple toe suggests a significant technical issue, but not poor technique in the general sense. I referred to 2011 Tukt's technique as "solid and dependable," which are two adjectives I would not attribute to Julia's -- to me, "solid and dependable" does not equal "poor 2A, little height, and barely getting back-end triples around."

Lastly, I appreciate your respect.

We actually are pretty much in agreement then, I guess. I could nit-pick a few things but I think I've been misunderstanding what some posters say when they say her technique is poor, at least if they all agree with you. Thanks for an articulate and well thought out response!