Grand Prix Predictions Game 2014-2015 FINAL ROUND: Grand Prix Final

[Sabrina]

Apparently there are 2 threads with predictions, so this is my take corrected after Gold's retirement

Men
Fernandez (hope he goes clean)
Voronov
Kovtun
Mura
Hanyu
Machida

Ladies:
Elisaveta Tuktamisheva
Julia Lipniskaia
Radionova
Hongo
Pogorilaya
Wagner

I think there will be 3 Russians ahead.It could be anyone. I'd like Julia to go clean...and win but that would be a miracle as she needs the last year type of technical jumps.
Pogorilaya may get a medal if she is clean too...
I don't think the Americans have a chance, only if 2 Russians bomb their programs and they go clean. PCS may come and save some people but that's unfair...This comment was made before Gold had retired...I think Hongo has more chances than Gold had...

Pairs

D/R
S/K
K/S
I don't know very well the Chinese pairs...

Dance

Weaver/Poje
Choke/Bates
Papadakis/Cizeron
Ilinykh/Ziganshin
Gilles/Poirer
Shibutanis

 

[Skategmt]

Ladies
1 Radioniva
2 Tuk
3Lipnitskaya
4 Pogorilaya
5 Wagner
6 Hongo

Men
1 Fernandez
2Kovtun
3 Vorononov
4 Mura
5 Machida
6 Hanyu

Pairs
1 Duhamel- Radford
2 Stolbova-Klimov
3 Kavaguti-Smirnov
4 Sui- Han
5 Peng - Zhang
6 Wu- Jim2

Dance
1 C/B
2 WeaPo
3Papadikus/Cizeron
4 Shibibs'
5 Gilles Poirer
6 I/Z

 

[WeakAnkles]

MEN

1. Machida
2. Fernandez
3. Kovtun
4. Hanyu
5. Mura
6. Voronov


WOMEN

1. Radionova
2. Tuktamysheva
3. Lipnitskaia
4. Pogorilaya
5. Wagner
6. Hongo


PAIRS

1. Stolbova/Klimov
2. Duhamel/Radford
3. Kavaguti/Smirnov
4. Peng/Zhang
5. Sui/Han
6. Yu/Jin


DANCE

1. Chock/Bates
2. Weaver/Poje
3. Papadakis/Cizeron
4. ShibSibs
5. Gilles/Poirier
6. Ilinykh/Zhiganshin

 

[peg]

Just wondered if anyone has composed a list like this, only adding the short program scores, free skate scores, and totals for each of the competitor's two GP events?

I did a comparison of standings based on total scores vs. standings based on placement. I didn't pull out short program and free skate scores though, just the totals

http://www.goldenskate.com/forum/showthread.php?53130-comparison-of-total-scores-for-GP-finalists

 

[96skiluvr]

Men:
1. Machida
2. Kovtun
3. Fernandez
4. Mura
5. Hanyu
6. Voronov

Ladies:
1. Radionova
2. Tuktamysheva
3. Lipnitskaya
4. Pogorilaya
5. Wagner
6. Hongo

Pairs:
1. Stolbova/Klimov
2. Duhamel/Radford
3. Kavaguti/Smirnov
4. Sui/Han
5. Peng/Zhang
6. Yu/Jin

Dance:
1. Chock/Bates
2. Weaver/Poje
3. Papadakis/Cizeron
4. Ilinykh/Zhiganshin
5. Shibutani/Shibutani
6. Gilles/Poirier

 

[Alba]

I put Hongo last here but I actually think she will do good.
She has nothing to lose, or to prove, so she might go and rock it.

 

[yqs100]

MEN

1. Fernandez
2. Machida
3. Kovtun
4. Mura
5. Hanyu
6. Vornov


LADIES

1 Elena RADIONOVA
2 Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA
3 Lipnitskaia
4 Wagner
5 Pogorylia
6 Rika HONGO


PAIRS

1 Ksenia STOLBOVA / Fedor KLIMOV RUS
2 Wenjing SUI / Cong HAN CHN
3 Meagan DUHAMEL / Eric RADFORD CAN
4 Cheng PENG / Hao ZHANG CHN
5 Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV RUS
6 Xiaoyu YU / Yang JIN CHN

 

[LRK]

I put Hongo last here but I actually think she will do good.
She has nothing to lose, or to prove, so she might go and rock it.

Same here - I too put her last, but think she might very well do better than that, for exactly the reason you mentioned. There should be no pressure on her, so she should be able to just go out threre and perform.

 

[TMC]

GRAND PRIX FINAL

MEN
1. Tatsuki Machida
2. Javier Fernandez
3. Sergei Voronov
4. Yuzuru Hanyu
5. Maksim Kovtun
6. Takahito Mura

LADIES
1. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
2. Julia Lipnitskaia
3. Anna Pogorilaya
4. Elena Radionova
5. Ashley Wagner
6. Rika Hongo

PAIRS
1. Stolbova/Klimov
2. Duhamel/Radford
3. Kavaguti/Smirnov
4. Peng/Zhang
5. Sui/Han
6. Yu/Jin

DANCE
1. Chock/Bates
2. Papadakis/Cizeron
3. Weaver/Poje
4. Shibutani/Shibutani
5. Gilles/Poirier

6. Ilinykh/Zhiganshin

 

[Mentalopes]

Men
1. Javi!!!
2. Machida
3. Kovtun
4. Mura
5. Voronov

6. Hanyu

Ladies
1. Lena <3
2. Liza
3. Pogo
4. Julia
5. Ashley

6. Rika

Pairs
1. Stolbova/Klimov
2. Duhamel/Radford
3. Kavaguti/Smirnov
4. Peng/Zhang
5. Sui/Han

6. Yu/Jin

Ice dance

1. Weaver/Poje
2. Chock/Bates
3. Papadakis/Cizeron
4. Shibutani/Shibutani
5. Gilles/Poirier

6. Ilinykh/Zhiganshin

 

[alebi]

Ok.. it was hard, I literally spent a week thinking about it and I still have no clues on MEN. I would give a slighter benefit to Fernandez only because he has the experience, he's been consistent all season and the final is in Spain... but then? Machida, Mura and Kovtun are able to do everything... and how is Hanyu? Too many questions in my head I have another doubt concerning bronze place for ladies... My heart says Yulia and Pogo isn't so reliable... I'll go with my heart even if I'm sure I'm making a mistake :hopelessness:

MEN
1. Fernandez
2. Mura
3. Machida
4. Hanyu
5. Kovtun
6. Voronov

LADIES
1. Radionova
2. Tuktamisheva
3. Lipnitskaia
4. Pogorilaya
5. Wagner
6. Hongo

PAIRS
1. Stolbova/Klimov
2. Duhamel/Radford
3. Kavaguti/Smirnov
4. Sui/Han
5. Peng/Zhang
6. Yu/Jin

DANCE
1. Chock/Bates
2. Weaver/Poje
3. Papadakis/Cizeron
4. Shibutani/Shibutani
5. Gilles/Poirier
6. Ilinykh/Zhiganshin

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

Oh, how I wish the ISU had listed the skaters in the entry lists the same way they normally do, i.e. alphabetically by country, and then alphabetically by name.

Because, by listing them by their qualifying positions, it made it very hard to deviate from that order!

Like, I tried to change the order for my Pairs predictions, but ended up going back to their qualifying order.

That said, I did manage to deviate in the other categories. I made a few changes in Ladies and Dance, but they were mainly just swapping skaters that had qualified next to each other on the list. The only major change I made was moving Ilinykh / Zhiganshin up from 6th to 4th in Dance.

The biggest changes I made were in the Men’s category. With the Men’s category being so unpredictable this season, I have decided I may as well take some risks.

With the GP Final being held in Spain, there is going to be so much pressure put on Javi’s shoulders to do well. Like, you can see it already see it with the way he is being used for all the promotion of the championships.

In my heart, I really want Javi to win. But I have a feeling that this pressure may get to him. And if he makes even a small mistake, the others are going to pounce. Particularly Machida, who has been really impressive so far this season.

Although Kovtun topped the qualifying standings, I don’t think that is a fair reflection of the series, given what happened in China. Like, when you add the 4 Total Segment Scores together for each of the 6 guys, only the injured Hanyu has got a lower total than Kovtun.

As for Voronov and Mura, I dithered for a long time over which to put on the podium. They are so well matched. But, in the end, with Kovtun down my list, I couldn’t bear to have no Russians on the podium in 2 of my categories. So, he won the tie-breaker.

I will probably regret taking these risks. But, hey!

Caroliza_fan


GRAND PRIX FINAL

Ladies

1. Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA, RUS
2. Elena RADIONOVA, RUS
3. Julia LIPNITSKAIA, RUS
4. Anna POGORILAYA, RUS
5. Ashley WAGNER, USA
6. Rika HONGO, JPN

Substitutes
7. Satoko MIYAHARA, JPN
8. Kanako MURAKAMI, JPN

Withdrawn
9. Gracie GOLD, USA


Men

1. Tatsuki MACHIDA, JPN
2. Javier FERNANDEZ, ESP
3. Sergei VORONOV, RUS
4. Takahito MURA, JPN
5. Yuzuru HANYU, JPN
6. Maxim KOVTUN, RUS

Substitutes
7. Jason BROWN, USA
8. Denis TEN, KAZ
9. Nam NGUYEN, CAN


Pairs

1. Ksenia STOLBOVA / Fedor KLIMOV, RUS
2. Meagan DUHAMEL / Eric RADFORD, CAN
3. Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV, RUS
4. Cheng PENG / Hao ZHANG, CHN
5. Wenjing SUI / Cong HAN, CHN
6. Xiaoyu YU / Yang JIN, CHN

Substitutes
7. Evgenia TARASOVA / Vladimir MOROZOV, RUS
8. Haven DENNEY / Brandon FRAZIER, USA
9. Xuehan WANG / Lei WANG, CHN


Ice Dance

1. Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE, CAN
2. Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES, USA
3. Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON, FRA
4. Elena ILINYKH / Ruslan ZHIGANSHIN, RUS
5. Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI, USA
6. Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER, CAN

Substitutes
7. Ksenia MONKO / Kirill KHALIAVIN, RUS
8. Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE, USA
9. Penny COOMES / Nicholas BUCKLAND, GBR


(Oh, and if you are wondering why I included the substitutes in my lists, it is to make it easier for me if I have to quickly add any of them into the predictions at the last minute... )

 

[HanDomi]

Looks like men predictions all very random all over the place. It will be funny to find out if anyone was right

 

[YesWay]

CaroLiza_fan, do you find - as I do - that the fun of these games is actually in the prediction, rather than the results?

I mean, all the things you considered when making your predictions... trying to figure out what factors might affect each skater positively or negatively... etc etc... stats, past performance, etc etc. That's what I enjoy.

Good scores are nice of course, but I find myself not really bothered about them. And when I score badly, it's often because some skaters greatly exceeded my expectations - and that's always a pleasant surprise.

 

[alebi]

CaroLiza_fan, do you find - as I do - that the fun of these games is actually in the prediction, rather than the results?

I mean, all the things you considered when making your predictions... trying to figure out what factors might affect each skater positively or negatively... etc etc... stats, past performance, etc etc. That's what I enjoy.

Good scores are nice of course, but I find myself not really bothered about them. And when I score badly, it's often because some skaters greatly exceeded my expectations - and that's always a pleasant surprise.

this this this!!! :agree: I daydreamed for a whole week!!

 

[alebi]

Although Kovtun topped the qualifying standings, I don’t think that is a fair reflection of the series, given what happened in China. Like, when you add the 4 Total Segment Scores together for each of the 6 guys, only the injured Hanyu has got a lower total than Kovtun.

This is a funny thing I've found while I was trying to give a scientific meaning to my predictions
(NOTE: these are NOT my final predictions!)



The TOP6 based on qualification points is:

Kovtun 30
Fernandez 28
Machida 28
Mura 26
Voronov 26
Hanyu 22

The TOP6 based on total scores is: Fernandez 509,88 Machida 506,83 Mura 490,25 Voronov 488,65 Kovtun 486,69 Hanyu 467,35 The TOP6 based on best score is: Machida 269,09 Fernandez 265,01 Mura 255,81 Voronov 252,00 Kovtun 243,35 Hanyu 237,55 So... we have three different winners and I begin thinking that at the end we'll have a fourth

 

[CaroLiza_fan]

CaroLiza_fan, do you find - as I do - that the fun of these games is actually in the prediction, rather than the results?

I mean, all the things you considered when making your predictions... trying to figure out what factors might affect each skater positively or negatively... etc etc... stats, past performance, etc etc. That's what I enjoy.

Good scores are nice of course, but I find myself not really bothered about them. And when I score badly, it's often because some skaters greatly exceeded my expectations - and that's always a pleasant surprise.

Yes, most of the fun is in making the predictions themselves.

The thing I love about the Predictions Games is that it gives us a reason to find out more about the skaters taking part. And that was why I was so keen to start a National Championships Predictions Game last season, as we could find out more about skaters that we had not yet seen at international level.

I don't know if anybody else does this, but I like to do a lot of research before deciding on the positions. First, I look up all the Bios, and order them by their PB score. Then I check to see when that PB was achieved, and make adjustments. Then check their current World Standings, and factor that in.

And then, once I see the order that scientific approach produces, I change it all according to my gut feeling!

But, the results are also important. It's fun making predictions, but it is even more fun when you actually get them right!

Last season, I had a specific target to do better than a particular member who I frequently disagreed completely with on most topics, but who I actually quite liked. And although I achieved that aim, it was only because the other member did not do the GP Final round. So, it was a hollow success.

sky_fly20 is now banned, so I gave myself another target this season. And the way things stand at the moment, it looks like I am not going to achieve it. So, that is why I am getting so competitive, and prepared to take risks at this final roll of the dice.

So, although most of the fun is in the process of making the predictions, the end result is also part of the fun.

Oh, and I should add that I totally agree that it makes you very happy when a skater does very well and exceeds your expectations. But the downside to this is that it makes it even more disappointing when a skater doesn't do as well as you hoped they would.

CaroLiza_fan

 

[malif]

The TOP6 based on qualification points is:

6. Hanyu 22

The TOP6 based on total scores is:

6.Hanyu 467,35

The TOP6 based on best score is:

6. Hanyu 237,55


So... we have three different winners and I begin thinking that at the end we'll have a fourth

Well, the winners are indeed all different, but Hanyu is 6-th everywhere. At least something sure for your predictions.
Recall that you get the same 30 points for 6th place guessed as for the 1st.

Hope we both suspect that 6-th place for Hanyu is not more secured than the win for every one.

 

[snowflake]

MEN
1 Tatsuki MACHIDA JPN
2 Maxim KOVTUN RUS
3 Javier FERNANDEZ ESP
4 Yuzuru HANYU JPN
5 Sergei VORONOV RUS
6 Takahito MURA JPN

LADIES
1 Elena RADIONOVA RUS
2 Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA RUS
3 Ashley WAGNER USA
4 Julia LIPNITSKAIA RUS
5 Anna POGORILAYA RUS
6 Rika HONGO JPN

PAIRS
1 Meagan DUHAMEL / Eric RADFORD CAN
2 Ksenia STOLBOVA / Fedor KLIMOV RUS
3 Yuko KAVAGUTI / Alexander SMIRNOV RUS
4 Cheng PENG / Hao ZHANG CHN
5 Wenjing SUI / Cong HAN CHN
6 Xiaoyu YU / Yang JIN CHN

ICE DANCE
1 Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE CAN
2 Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON FRA
3 Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES USA
4 Elena ILINYKH / Ruslan ZHIGANSHIN RUS
5 Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER CAN
6 Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI USA

 

[WeakAnkles]

Yes, most of the fun is in making the predictions themselves.

The thing I love about the Predictions Games is that it gives us a reason to find out more about the skaters taking part. And that was why I was so keen to start a National Championships Predictions Game last season, as we could find out more about skaters that we had not yet seen at international level.

I don't know if anybody else does this, but I like to do a lot of research before deciding on the positions. First, I look up all the Bios, and order them by their PB score. Then I check to see when that PB was achieved, and make adjustments. Then check their current World Standings, and factor that in.

And then, once I see the order that scientific approach produces, I change it all according to my gut feeling!

But, the results are also important. It's fun making predictions, but it is even more fun when you actually get them right!

Last season, I had a specific target to do better than a particular member who I frequently disagreed completely with on most topics, but who I actually quite liked. And although I achieved that aim, it was only because the other member did not do the GP Final round. So, it was a hollow success.

sky_fly20 is now banned, so I gave myself another target this season. And the way things stand at the moment, it looks like I am not going to achieve it. So, that is why I am getting so competitive, and prepared to take risks at this final roll of the dice.

So, although most of the fun is in the process of making the predictions, the end result is also part of the fun.

Oh, and I should add that I totally agree that it makes you very happy when a skater does very well and exceeds your expectations. But the downside to this is that it makes it even more disappointing when a skater doesn't do as well as you hoped they would.

CaroLiza_fan

I decided to join the fray because Mrs P was running this, and Mrs P always makes things FunFunFun with a capital F. Since I have never actually made it around the perimeter of an ice rink on skates once in my life (damn ankles!), I figured I would be happy if I was in 70th place (I was the 70th person to sign up). And then, much to my surprise, I wound up in 8th place for what baseball fans would call "the regular season." I guess all those years listening to Dick Button and Peggy Flemming paid off! Of course now that we're in the playoff, so to speak, I fully expect to be much like my beloved Yankees and totally fall to pieces. But you know, who cares? This was Fun Fun Fun and it has made me pay attention to skaters and disciplines I usually just let glide by my eyes. I now have a Whole New Appreciation for Pairs and, if I am ever in a brawl, I want a couple of women pairs skaters on my side. You can't get much tougher than a female pairs skater!

The Men single skaters, however, are still OFF my holiday card list. It's not nice to give us all That Much Anxiety! Exceptions for Jason and Misha, just because they're both so darn entertaining!