I want to thank everybody who posted for a very interesting thread. There isn't much to add...so of course, I'll add it:
1. The Kerrs- The Kerrs would do themselves a huge favor if they would arrive at their GP events well trained. At Skate America this year, they performed poorly and finished 5th behind G&P (US), P&B (FR), and M&Z (US), all teams that they have beaten in the past. And they did something similar at SC last year. Showing up well trained right out of the gate is something the DomShabs did, and the Kerrs didn't do this year. Moving up the ice dance ladder is tricky enough without making it harder this way. (Check out John's recent diary,
http://www.sineadandjohn.com/diary.asp, where he confirms this, saying:
We were a little off the pace at Skate America and we really did not deserve to be in the medals as was our pre-stated goal
.
2. The rules change. This year, a step sequence was dropped in the FD and changes were made in the lifts. These were changes that favor good lifting couples (D&L, DomShabs, K&N) and don't favor good step couples (B&A). B&A's lifts have never been particularly innovative, and it's affecting them this year, as well as the tacky redo of the 1988 That's Entertainment dance of the Becks of Austria (JohnnyCoop is right on this) Plus B&A arriving at the Grand Prix undertrained has been bad for them, too.
3. The rise of the DomShabs-It's always been the case that the designated 2nd couple from a country has no political advantages (Canada & Russia do this). The meteoric rise is more like undergraded a bit last year + overgraded a bit this year = big apparent change. Plus this year's rules are more favorable to DomShabs than last year's.
4. Cultural tastes-The best example I can give of this is the Canadian commentary on the waltz CD in 1998. A side by side comparison is given of Bourne & Kraatz and Grishuk & Platov. B&K are spot on the beat, but their leg lines do not always match. G&P deliberately miss the beat to get a better leg line. Both couples appear to be intentionally doing these things. My crackpot theory on this is that the roots of North American ice dance tend to lie in Fred Astaire, musicals, ballrooms & tap more than ballet. A tap dancer off the beat is a terrible thing and oh so obvious. And leg line in fast tapping is not of high importance or even achievable. Ballet seems to be the main roots of Russian dance-leg line is all (or why else invent toe shoes, I say).
And so we have fast stepping, spot on the beat, B&A and bendy girl no steps K&N and lovely line Domnina. In some ways they are competing in different sports entirely.
And another effect is that in the musical/tap frame, the key dancer is the Guy (Astaire/Agosto, for example) and it's OK if the girl just follows & keeps up, and in ballet it's OK if the guy is just a third leg (can we say Kostamarov/Goncharov), but the girl must be stunning and have great leg line (can we say Grushina). So it's not OK for Belbin to be the lesser of the two with not as good leg line in the ballet frame.
Judges and for that matter audiences can't help but by affected by what they truly prefer. So NA judging and European judging in dance is just not going to be that uniform.
5. Another couple that hasn't been mentioned in this thread is Davis & White, the only couple this year to achieve all level 4's in a Grand Prix event. They are doing a more interesting Polovetsian Dances routine than DomShabs, too. While they won't be a factor at Worlds this year, they have improved hugely this year, and if they keep this up, the dogfight at US nationals in dance is going to be Intense for the 2nd & 3rd spots.