ISU makes decision on 2015-16 GPF selection

[4everchan]

you can do the maths for each group but to answer your question : gracie and patrick are in

I've been gone all day. Do we have a list of people who have already qualified? With Gracie's Win of the SP. Is she in the GPF? How about Patrick? Is there an article that states the skaters who have qualified?

 

[mrrice]

you can do the maths for each group but to answer your question : gracie and patrick are in

Math!!!!!! Are you Crazy!!:eekn: Patrick is in and I am happy as a Clam. I'm happy for Gracie to. NHK will be very interesting.....:think:

 

[4everchan]

oh i just love going to the isu grand prix standings and imagine all sorts of scenarios if you think that's crazy GUILTY

Math!!!!!! Are you Crazy!!:eekn: Patrick is in and I am happy as a Clam. I'm happy for Gracie to. NHK will be very interesting.....:think:

 

[mrrice]

oh i just love going to the isu grand prix standings and imagine all sorts of scenarios if you think that's crazy GUILTY

I don't think it's crazy at it all. In fact, I would have done the same thing in my younger days. ( I sound old ) But seriously, I don't think I've followed skating relentlessly, since 2010. Except for Joshua, of course.

 

[wordsworthgirl]

Does Max Aaron have no chance? This seems unfair to me given that he WON one event.

 

[4everchan]

no chance.. he did too poorly in france... same with T/M... it happens

Does Max Aaron have no chance? This seems unfair to me given that he WON one event.

 

[MaxSwagg]

Does Max Aaron have no chance? This seems unfair to me given that he WON one event.

And was even more of a mess than usual at the next...

 

[katha]

The FS/FD at TEB being skated and judged would have been fair. Since that didn't happen all the ISU can do is damage control. It's going to be unfair to some degree no matter what formula they use, how they calculate it, how they choose etc.

Yes, the skaters at TEB who didn't do great in the SP/SD are disadvantaged now, but there's nothing to be done about it. I'm sure the skaters themselves understand that as well. And you can go round and round claiming fair and unfair for all kinds of scenarios and skaters. Look at dance: The teams are relatively close together in skills anyway, so it was going to be a bloodbath no matter what. H/D lucked out a bit with the results standing as they are, but that's about it. G/P can claim that their FD is better than their SD and since they were close to H/D in the SD they might have won the comp and qualified for the GPF outright (not unlikely). S/B and C/B might claim that they would have moved up in the FD (also not out of the realm of possibilites). I/Z can feel hard done by getting assigned two relatively competitve GP events while arguably others lucked out. Even with P/C out, B/S's two GP events aren't super easy either. And the tiebreaker being the SD isn't ideal for S/K, sure, but it isn't ideal for them because arguably their SD lags a bit behind their FD in TES. They average 63 there in contrast to the 100/101 they average in the FD, so that they've made themselves vulnerable in that portion is on them as well. Also, they were like 60th in World standings or something, they weren't even guaranteed two GP assignments. Getting invited to two events allowed them the shot at the GPF they have now. So IMO it all needs to be put in perspective to some degree.

 

[chuckm]

I/Z can't complain about feeling "hard done" after Zhiganshin fell on the twizzles in the SD at CoR. After that, they had zero chance of being on the podium in Moscow. They wound up 5th, behind Guignard / Fabbri by 0.53.

 

[Moxiejan]

Does Max Aaron have no chance? This seems unfair to me given that he WON one event.

There is still a mathematical chance of him getting in, but it would require some unlikely results. I worked it out this way; Max has 19 points:
1. One of the trio of Hanyu, Jin and Kovtun (tied at 13) wins and has 28 points; the other two finish 6th or lower (no more than 18 points).
2. Dornbush is no higher than 2nd (17 points).
3. Menshov is no higher than 3rd (18 points).
4. Any combo of remaining lower skaters (Hochstein or Brezina or Mura or Tanaka, etc.) is 4th and 5th; no one higher than 18 points.

That would make the qualifiers, in order:
1. Javi; 30
2. Shona; 28
3. Hanyu, Jin or Kovtun; 28
4. Patrick; 22
5. Dice; 22
6. Han Yan; 20
7. Max; additional qualifier at 19 because he was at TEB.

 

[katha]

I/Z can't complain about feeling "hard done" after Zhiganshin fell on the twizzles in the SD at CoR. After that, they had zero chance of being on the podium in Moscow. They wound up 5th, behind Guignard / Fabbri by 0.53.

Well, yes, with the splat in the SD they removed themselves from all considerations. But since everyone was going on about theoretical scenarios and fair/unfair, I was just pointing out that loads of people could make claims like that. I/Z had top contenders in the GP in China with Chock/Bates and Capellini/Lanotte and then once again with Weaver/Poje and Capellini/Lanotte in Russia, making their most likely best case scenario placing a 3rd place in both events (I know placing 3rd in Russia wasn't going to be easy even clean, this is all speculative math and theory), even though without the splat their scores might have been comparable to some of the second place finishers. Arguably H/D and G/P had rather "easier" assignments with P/C withdrawing and SA not being so stacked. But again, G/P came to SA and had their plans foiled by S/K (I'm sure they weren't thrilled with third there). Then at TEB they lost the SD to HD, who knows how the event would have ended. So even G/P can't really complain, because by the same token you can make a case for them because of the unfinished event in TEB you can make a case against them because of their placing in SA and their middling SD scores. It's all just theoretical fun anyway.

 

[karne]

Does Max Aaron have no chance? This seems unfair to me given that he WON one event.

Pretty much. Oh, don't say that out loud, apparently it's a great and wonderful thing that he's missing the GPF, because obviously one harshly-scored short program is SO MUCH MORE important than a Grand Prix gold...

no chance.. he did too poorly in france... same with T/M... it happens

He got a low score in ONE SEGMENT of the competition. Every other skater at every other Grand Prix event had the opportunity to change their fate after the SP.

If this had been Hanyu, no way would we be seeing so many people saying "it happens" or "get over it" or "it's his fault"...

There is still a mathematical chance of him getting in, but it would require some unlikely results. I worked it out this way; Max has 19 points:
1. One of the trio of Hanyu, Jin and Kovtun (tied at 13) wins and has 28 points; the other two finish 6th or lower (no more than 18 points).
2. Dornbush is no higher than 2nd (17 points).
3. Menshov is no higher than 3rd (18 points).
4. Any combo of remaining lower skaters (Hochstein or Brezina or Mura or Tanaka, etc.) is 4th and 5th; no one higher than 18 points.

That would make the qualifiers, in order:
1. Javi; 30
2. Shona; 28
3. Hanyu, Jin or Kovtun; 28
4. Patrick; 22
5. Dice; 22
6. Han Yan; 20
7. Max; additional qualifier at 19 because he was at TEB.

So do all of those things need to happen together or just one of them? Stranger things, I suppose...

 

[Skater Boy]

not quite... the first rule for the tie breaker is placement at GP competitions. If J/C and S/B have the same total of points, 22, then J/C will edge S/B because they are placed 2nd at TEB and S/B best placement is 3rd.

Well a decisions was made but really two weeks later; I guess something had to be done but no matter who you are fans of this really bites. I am not sure what is fair. A flukey skater can benefit from this and we may miss some of our faves but life isn't fair nd sadly if the world champion doesn't make it and former world champion don't make it because of this well it just seems kind of illegit or sketch. But such is life.

 

[Moxiejan]

To Karne: all of them need to happen.

Max is currently in 6th, so there is room for only one person at NHK to pass him. Han Yan and Dice also are at risk if the NHK podium is Hanyu, Jin and Kovtun (in any order). I wasn't able to find a scenario that pushed Patrick lower than 7th, so he is in.

 

[NanaPat]

So do all of those things need to happen together or just one of them? Stranger things, I suppose...

I believe they all need to happen. The absolutely most unlikely part is 1: one of Hanyu, Jin, Kovtun wins (OK, that's quite likely) AND THE OTHER TWO FINISH 6th or lower (not likely at all; one, maybe, but two? no way). And then all the skaters with lower points so far have to line up in exactly the right order as well. So no, it's highly unlikely.

Now, let's wait and see. Less than a week to go.

 

[tzazu]

It took some time, and no matter what they decided someone will be unhappy about it- especially when it came to issues about ties and the 7th place qualification rule for this year. But I think this is a good decision:agree:

 

[ice coverage]

There is still a mathematical chance of him getting in, but it would require some unlikely results. I worked it out this way; Max has 19 points:
1. One of the trio of Hanyu, Jin and Kovtun (tied at 13) wins and has 28 points; the other two finish 6th or lower (no more than 18 points).
2. Dornbush is no higher than 2nd (17 points).
3. Menshov is no higher than 3rd (18 points).
4. Any combo of remaining lower skaters (Hochstein or Brezina or Mura or Tanaka, etc.) is 4th and 5th; no one higher than 18 points. ...

Love Max to pieces, but have to agree that it looks unlikely that he will qualify :sad4:.

I would say that the fourth of your necessary conditions simply would be that Hochstein must place no higher than fourth?
The higher that Brezina, Kerry, Mura, Tanaka, Besseghier, and Balde place, then the better for Max.

Another way of looking at Max's tough odds :sad4: is that he will be out of luck if two of the three men who already have thirteen points (Jin, Kovtun, Hanyu) place at least fifth or above (no matter how low the placement of the third of the three men).

(Sorry, karne. Pains me to think in these terms, but am trying to be realistic. But I do agree that stranger things have happened [ETA: stranger than Max qualifying in spite of the odds]. And we cannot rule out the possibility that Max will wind up in the eighth or ninth position in the rankings ... and that one or more of the qualifiers would need to withdraw. So never say never. [ETA: I am not hoping for anyone to be injured.]
In any case, happy for you about Brendan going to NHK.)

 

[nolangoh]

So does it mean:

For men, as long as Boyang, Maxim and Yuzuru end up on the podium,

Javi, Shoma, Boyang, Maxim, Yuzuru, Patrick will be in top 6 and go to final and Dice, being at 7th and having been to TEB, will go as well. Provided that everything goes normal in NHK.

For ladies, as long as Mao, Satoko and Ashley stay on the podium,

Gracie, Evgenia, Elena, Mao, Satoko and Ashley will go to final. Rika and Liza, and Julia will be substitutes.

?

 

[Jaana]

Well, I don't like it. (But is anyone surprised?). It's simply wrong to use the SP results as final. By doing so, they are making the assumptions that they ostensibly were trying to avoid - the assumption that the standings would have remained as they were even had an LP taken place. They should have tried harder to make the FS happen, even if it meant waiting a couple of days, or reconvening the week before the GPF.

And yeah, before the accusers come out, I don't like it also because it means Max misses the final. Think about the stupidity of that: a GRAND PRIX WINNER, who was placed behind two skaters who had invalid jumping passes (which is a rant in and of itself), is going to miss the Final because of something that was completely and utterly out of his control. It's lunacy. But the ISU wouldn't have cared, because of who it was...

I think the decision is right, because it is based on sp which was skated there and not on what might or might not have happened in the freeskate... Max just needed to skate better in sp.

 

[karne]

(Sorry, karne. Pains me to think in these terms, but am trying to be realistic. But I do agree that stranger things have happened. And we cannot rule out the possibility that Max will wind up in the eighth or ninth position in the rankings ... and that one or more of the qualifiers would need to withdraw. So never say never.
In any case, happy for you about Brendan going to NHK.)

I know it is unrealistic to think thus, but the men have thrown up strange results all year.

But if Max does not qualify, then I do not want him to go as an alternate, because that would mean someone is injured, and that would be sad for them.

Perhaps Brendan will help out by showing what he is made of at NHK.

I think the decision is right, because it is based on sp which was skated there and not on what might or might not have happened in the freeskate... Max just needed to skate better in sp.

Yes, and Hanyu "just needed to skate better in sp" at Skate Canada. And Shoma "just needed to skate better in sp" at Skate America. And Rippon "just needed to skate better in sp" at Cup of Russia. The difference? Every single one of those guys was allowed to redeem themselves through the long program. They weren't unfairly or unduly punished for one sub-par skate.