Ladies OGM Contenders 2018

[lanark]

Med Gabby Osmond and Honda / Mai.
Sad but no US ladies. Wagner may be on podium but i dont belive in her gold anyway.

I love Wagner! And she's keeping her SP hip hip chin chin, which I really enjoy!
I think if she goes to the Olympics (is she even? probably...?) she will give one hell of a performance, it's gonna be awesome! can't wait!

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[chuckm]

Thanks chuckm! Coming from you, to admit that "Osmond has had great results", is pure joy to me given your history of diminished expectations for Canadian women. A 9th place prediction for Kaetlyn at Worlds and Gabby not even in your top ten radar, wasn't it? I fully expect Kaetlyn to continue her trajectory, as she did last season in what was still a rebuilding year. As some on here know, re-learning how to jump after a major and possibly a career ending injury, can always be tricky.

If you're going to quote me, please do not quote out of context. What I said was: Osmond has had great results from time to time, but not consistently. Consistency is important, too, especially when competing against a buzzsaw like Medvedeva, who is capable of turning in clean performances every time out, and getting higher and higher scores every time she wins.

Kaetlyn's injury fortunately wasn't career-ending, and it is now nearly three years in the past. It was the 2015-2016 season that was her 'rebuilding' season, not this past season. Kaetlyn is a strong, powerful skater, and doesn't hold back. And she doesn't blame her old injury when she makes mistakes or doesn't skate as well as she can.

 

[amc987]

I was looking at TSL's tweets about Champs Camp and Ashley is apparently back to Moulin Rouge. I think it's a disaster because this would be the second time she's repeating the program. Seems ill-advised, especially during the Olympic year. Thoughts?

Does anyone know if/why La La Land didn't work out?

 

[Grin]

This is an example of busywork in choreography these days; such a thing shouldn't automatically count for anything special. A skater doing a weak spread eagle after the point a jump landing should be considered "concluded" has nothing to do with the quality of the jump itself. Maybe it can be good interpretation of the music (but in Medvedeva's program isn't anything special in that regard either), being able to highlight a moment of delicacy, but it isn't impressive otherwise.

Also, spread eagle exits can sometimes just mask a faulty landing and these shouldn't count as any kind of special transition or landing at all (a recent example would be the one Hanyu did at the end of throwing in a 4toe+3sal combo). When you land a jump your body is naturally going in that direction anyway and putting your free foot down is naturally a way to steady extra momentum from the jump that wasn't able to be controlled otherwise. A real spread eagle exit transition directly from a jump should show some speed and control.



Oh please. People have shown twizzles, spirals, power pulls, spread eagles, and leaps directly from landings. And what do you think a +Loop combo is? The skater transitions immediately from the landing of a jump into a Loop jump. In the past people did double axels directly into spins too.

Bonus for a difficult exit should be exactly that - difficult. And yes the connection should be quite immediate to count, otherwise it should be viewed as something just for the Transitions (and hopefully Choreography/Interpretation) component, not as GOE bonus for the jump itself.

Remember the "good extension on landing" clause too; if a skater is hurting the speed and extension of their landing in order to then be able to do a transition a second later, it doesn't show something special about the jump. It just becomes a choreography choice.



Because of bad judging. Her double axel elements should be +1 at most and frequently 0 GOE, such as the 2A+2T+2T combo she did at Worlds. A bunch of tiny, barely-rotated jumps and no speed coming out. An arm over the head doesn't impress me there, it doesn't make up for all of the other lacking qualities. And of course her Lutz and other jump combos are getting free passes when they shouldn't be.

The one thing that can be said about Medvedeva's skating as compared to the Senior field last season is how seamless it is (although Miyahara did that too, but with even more problematic jumps). She is getting overscored on GOE's, her skating skills and transitions are not worthy of 9+ PCS, there's very little about her choreography that is truly spectacular, and the interpretation of the music is questionable, but she does perform the material she has with a considerable amount of naturalism and unity.

Her horeo and interpretation aren't questionable for judges and audiences who usually give her standing ovations.
And I can't agree with you that her 2A is tiny. It isn't as high as athletic type of skater 2A, I'd say its highs is average.

 

[largeman]

I was looking at TSL's tweets about Champs Camp and Ashley is apparently back to Moulin Rouge. I think it's a disaster because this would be the second time she's repeating the program. Seems ill-advised, especially during the Olympic year. Thoughts?

Lots and lots of thoughts can be found right here... I hope you won't regret asking

 

[Ender]

Yup, "wild" enough to have earned an Olympic and World Silver medals. How about Big, Bold and Beautiful with Speed and Transitions? Just saying.

Wild in the meaning that she often pops and falls... not sure if it's entirely a good thing. Of course it's amazing to see her putting it together however it's not that often.

 

[OneFlutzAway]

I think it'll be easy to tell after Ondrej Nepala if Evgenia has the gold wrapped up or not. If she maintains her form from the past 3 seasons, the OGM is almost a done deal barring disaster. At this point, even though she's not my favourite by any means, I'll be sad if she doesn't win, purely because of how dominant she's been.

For the other medals: Whichever two Japanese ladies are sent (please Mai & Wakaba!), Alina, Kaetlyn, Gabby, whichever other Russian out of Polina/Elena/Anna/Elizaveta, and the Americans.

 

[lanark]

I think it'll be easy to tell after Ondrej Nepala if Evgenia has the gold wrapped up or not. If she maintains her form from the past 3 seasons, the OGM is almost a done deal barring disaster. At this point, even though she's not my favourite by any means, I'll be sad if she doesn't win, purely because of how dominant she's been.

For the other medals: Whichever two Japanese ladies are sent (please Mai & Wakaba!), Alina, Kaetlyn, Gabby, whichever other Russian out of Polina/Elena/Anna/Elizaveta, and the Americans.

It would be indeed sad for her if she had some major falls and ends up in second or third. But then again, she's young. It's really early to say but, maybe she will compete in 2022 as well? The way judges treat her it seems she should have a bright future.
But... the new wave of juniors turning into seniors is coming... hehehehe [emoji23]

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[Yatagarasu]

It's really early to say but, maybe she will compete in 2022 as well?

Zhenya? She has already stated she will stay until 2022.

 

[lanark]

Zhenya? She has already stated she will stay until 2022.

Well, people make a lot of plans. Let's see how things will work out for her.
I don't know if she's still going to be Russia's bet for gold in 2022. There's a lot of young talents coming through.
But for PC, yeah, definitely would bet on Medvedeva getting gold.
And I wish Daleman can pull off those HUGE jumps and get a medal! Her height is unreal!
I'm rooting for Daleman and Ashley. It would be crazy if Wagner got a medal. She's not that young anymore, but of course she keeps doing amazing. In fact, I think she gets better with time.
Let's see how she's going to skate this season...
I'd also love to see what Japan will have to offer.
Ooh, I'm so looking forward to this Olympics!!!
I wish I could go to Korea to watch it...

By the way, I wonder how Korea will do at home soil... I know Dabin probably won't medal, unless all of the top ladies go through disaster and she skates perfectly, which I don't see happening...
But then again, FS is tricky and it only gets trickier during Olympics season.

Which reminds me, a huge factor for win or lose is the pressure.

So how do you guys think the top ladies feel the pressure?

Medvedeva for instance, I think will deal with pressure pretty well, since she has a lot of confidence and is very consistent (although is all very questionable as it has been discussed here). So I don't think she will be as nervous as the other ladies.
Anna P. for instance, if she goes to the Olympics, she could do amazing or be a total disaster.

What about the Japanese ladies and the Americans?

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[OneFlutzAway]

Well, people make a lot of plans. Let's see how things will work out for her.
I don't know if she's still going to be Russia's bet for gold in 2022. There's a lot of young talents coming through.
But for PC, yeah, definitely would bet on Medvedeva getting gold.
And I wish Daleman can pull off those HUGE jumps and get a medal! Her height is unreal!
I'm rooting for Daleman and Ashley. It would be crazy if Wagner got a medal. She's not that young anymore, but of course she keeps doing amazing. In fact, I think she gets better with time.
Let's see how she's going to skate this season...
I'd also love to see what Japan will have to offer.
Ooh, I'm so looking forward to this Olympics!!!
I wish I could go to Korea to watch it...

By the way, I wonder how Korea will do at home soil... I know Dabin probably won't medal, unless all of the top ladies go through disaster and she skates perfectly, which I don't see happening...
But then again, FS is tricky and it only gets trickier during Olympics season.

Which reminds me, a huge factor for win or lose is the pressure.

So how do you guys think the top ladies feel the pressure?

Medvedeva for instance, I think will deal with pressure pretty well, since she has a lot of confidence and is very consistent (although is all very questionable as it has been discussed here). So I don't think she will be as nervous as the other ladies.
Anna P. for instance, if she goes to the Olympics, she could do amazing or be a total disaster.

What about the Japanese ladies and the Americans?

Japanese Ladies:
- Satoko should be fine. If she makes the Olympic team she will hopefully be recovered from her injury and have her jumps back.
- Mai will probably be fine as well. She's even said that her nerves are quashed by remembering the months she was forced to spend off ice in hospital, recovering from her arthritis, and she's just happy to skate. She's so consistent and almost never UR's, but if she rushes that flip in the SP again...
- Wakaba and Marin are giant question marks. If they're on form, like at WTT and JW respectively, they're both good enough to win Olympic medals, but then again neither of them have really been renowned for consistency recently.
- Yuna, Kaori and Rika, if any of them make it, are also question marks.

The American Ladies:
Firstly, none of them are the definition of consistency.
- Karen, if she makes it, is one of the most unpredictable of the lot. However, if she skates a good SP, she always seems to skate well in the FS, so maybe she won't be so nervous if she gets a good SP done.
- Ashley very rarely bombs, for me 2017 Worlds FS was the worst I've seen her in ages. Plus she's got that experience factor, but it's all going to come down as to whether the nerves will get to her determining if she can rotate her jumps.
- Mirai, I straight up have no idea. Take Nationals and 4CC this year. At Nationals, she made several mistakes in her FS (quite a few UR's and a fall) but then three weeks later at 4CC she was flawless. Nerves get to her a lot though, from what I've seen. Same with Gracie, and Mariah quite a lot of the time.

 

[skylark]

I was looking at TSL's tweets about Champs Camp and Ashley is apparently back to Moulin Rouge. I think it's a disaster because this would be the second time she's repeating the program. Seems ill-advised, especially during the Olympic year. Thoughts?

Does anyone know if/why La La Land didn't work out?

It hasn't been confirmed or announced that she won't skate to La La Land. TSL's tweet may have referred only to what happened at Champs Camp, and maybe assumed that meant a switch. And perhaps it does, but we don't know for sure. Her team may not have made the decision yet.

As to a possible reason, here's a quote from Ashley:

"The concussions definitely rewired my brain in the way that I process information. My short-term memory is not that incredible; talking to me is a little bit like talking to Dory from "Finding Nemo" [laughing]. It's really affected me in the way that I learn programs because you have to memorize this choreography and the choreography is very intricate. So for me, retraining my brain to be able to learn choreography and be able to remember it, that's probably my biggest challenge."

http://www.espn.com/olympics/story/...lks-concussions-costumes-collisions-body-2017​

 

[figurefan0726]

I would want to see Yuna Kim at the Gala.