Ladies prospects

[burntBREAD]

Anyone know about the status of some of the skaters' injuries/ potential for withdrawal? I know that Miki, Carolina, and Rachael are all injured -- I believe the one most susceptible to perhaps withdrawing is Miki, whose back looked rather worse for wear at COR. Carolina will most likely compete with the same watered-down jumping layout, and I've heard that Rachael is healing pretty well.

 

[Mathman]

Or if you have a different view you certainly did not make a case for it.

That's the thing about opinions. You don't have to "make a case" for them. You just have them.

To me, any competition can be important to the contestants and interesting to others. This is true even of contests that do not contribute to a person's legacy or to the number of Internet posts generated.

I am not trying to convince you that you ought to care about who wins the Grand Prix Final. I still hope that Mao wins TEB, with Alissa at least third. Hopes, like opinions, do not have to be defended, justified, or argued about.

I also think that if you enter a competition you should do your best. (Since that statement has the judgmental "should" in it, I suppose it would be better to say, "I admire most those athletes who always strive to do their best.")

 

[R.D.]

If Czisny stands up she should Podium.



If I had 10 million dollars, I'd be rich.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

1. One can enter a competition with a variety of goals, can't they? I think one of Mao's goals is to win. Virtue and Moir are Olympic Champions, so they can look down on the GP season, right? But when interviewed, they came right out and stated that one of their goals was "to win everything." Reigning bronze medalists (at the time) in pairs, Robin Szolkowy said the same thing heading into the 2007/2008 season. Just because there are more prestigious competitions out there (no one's arguing that the Olympics is more prestigious than Trophee Eric Bompard) doesn't mean that people don't want to win.

2. But in many respects, victory isn't everything. Sometimes it's getting your programs out there in the competitive environment to see what you need to improve (again, V/M basically improved at every single competition last season, and that was because of the competitive mileage they got out of TEB, SC, GPF etc). I cannot imagine Mao not wanting to win TEB. I think Lena Marrocco wants to win TEB despite not standing a chance - I'd be very surprised if a competitor existed that didn't want to win. But I don't think she'd view the failure to win as an ultimate failure or something - not if her performance was a marked improvement from NHK. I also don't think she views losing the Olympics as the ultimate failure either, fwiw.

3. I don't believe that the GP season is a glorifed pageant at all (no more so than figure skating in general, anyway). We certainly can't predict Worlds based on it (the last GPF winner to win worlds? For the ladies -Slutskaya.), and I don't think it's as prestigious compared to Worlds/Olympics, but calling it a glorifed pageant is definitely too much.

 

[sorcerer]

I think ImaginaryPogue has summed this quite well.
No intention to further OT the subject but just for curiosity, which do you guys think is more prestigeous and important, 4CC/EC or GPFinal ?
I definitely feel that fans in Japan value GPF much much more than 4CC, but I can imagine European fans value EC more than GPF.

Mathman's statement is very true when it comes especially to Mao.
Mao is perfectionist in nature and silver/bronze medals are proof of imperfection to her IMO. This I'm very much convinced of.
To be precise, she doesn't strive to win, she cannnot forgive herself for not being the best she can.
(Of course IMO again.)

 

[Mathman]

No intention to further OT the subject but just for curiosity, which do you guys think is more prestigious and important, 4CC/EC or GPFinal ?

I definitely feel that fans in Japan value GPF much much more than 4CC, but I can imagine European fans value EC more than GPF.

I think that is probably right. The European Championship has been contested since 1891 (five years earlier than that Johnny-come-lately event, Worlds ) It is steeped in tradition. The ladies competition began in 1930, Sonia Henie won six in a row, 1931-1936 (American champ Maribel Vinson got bronze in 1934. )

In contrast, Four Continents is a recent made-up event that the ISU tries to drum up support for, but without much success. The top skaters in North America routinely choose to skip it.

As for the Grand Prix Final, that, too, does not have the gravitas of the old grand dames of skating tradition like Europeans and Worlds. In fact, it does not even have the same traditional status as some of the individual events, like Skate Canada and Skate America.

Skate Canada and Skate America were inaugurated to take the place of the old North American Championships. Winning Skate America used to be a big deal in its own right, long before the ISU decided to couple six independent events into the "Championship Series," later the Grand Prix.

 

[enlight78]

I think it is funny the different opinions of prestige of the different events. I will have to say Olympics ,ECC and Worlds has the prestige do to age. Due to the fact that i didn't start following figures skating til the 90's . They are not that important to me as a fan. As a fan the GP series is where the will competition is and is what i care about the most . The rest a fun traditional showcases for me. ECC only show case European skaters so it leaves a lot to yearn for. At 1/3 of the top skaters cant even compete at Worlds. It still a huge event to win do to the competition but the GPF is just as hard or even harder to win. So it is proably different view of a skater but for me the GP is the meat and potatoes and the rest is just dessert. The whole way isu has competitions set up is kind backwards compared to most sports were the prestigious events are the hardest to win and have the highest level of competition. To win the gpf you have have 6 good performances. To win worlds you might need four, possibly only two if your patrick chan.

 

[Mathman]

^ I agree that the structure of the Grand Prix makes it fun to follow. For one thing, there is a new event every week, where we can track the developing fortunes of our favorites. This provides a little "spectator momentum" -- we are eager to get to the end of the story and see how it all turns out.

 

[Layfan]

enlight78
I think it is funny the different opinions of prestige of the different events. I will have to say Olympics ,ECC and Worlds has the prestige do to age. Due to the fact that i didn't start following figures skating til the 90's . They are not that important to me as a fan. As a fan the GP series is where the will competition is and is what i care about the most . The rest a fun traditional showcases for me. ECC only show case European skaters so it leaves a lot to yearn for. At 1/3 of the top skaters cant even compete at Worlds. It still a huge event to win do to the competition but the GPF is just as hard or even harder to win. So it is proably different view of a skater but for me the GP is the meat and potatoes and the rest is just dessert. The whole way isu has competitions set up is kind backwards compared to most sports were the prestigious events are the hardest to win and have the highest level of competition. To win the gpf you have have 6 good performances. To win worlds you might need four, possibly only two if your patrick chan.

I agree that the structure of the Grand Prix makes it fun to follow. For one thing, there is a new event every week, where we can track the developing fortunes of our favorites. This provides a little "spectator momentum" -- we are eager to get to the end of the story and see how it all turns out.

Totally agree that the GP is fun to follow but there can be no question about the prestige. Ask Jeremy Abbott - the endorsements have not been rolling in despite his GP final win.

Still, I have wondered if the GP series might not gain - or even be gaining - in importance with the emergence of Asian skaters. They don't have a European Championship equivalent and Japanese nationals is very important but the U.S and still a larger country and the U.S. championships are practically on par with the Europeans. (i.e. Michelle winning nine U.S. championships is considered as remarkable as Irina winning whatever number of European championshis she won, can't remember, seven?)
For the South Koreans, I imagine the GP series and the final was pretty important - especially when it was a Yuna vs. Mao thing. Maybe if China ever gets another singles skater like Lu Chen, the GP will grow even more in importance, at least for the Asians.

 

[Mathman]

Ask Jeremy Abbott - the endorsements have not been rolling in despite his GP final win.

Actually, I think he got about the same endorsements as Evan Lysacek got for winning the Olympic gold medal -- none.

 

[R.D.]

Actually, I think he got about the same endorsements as Evan Lysacek got for winning the Olympic gold medal -- none.

Didn't he have endorsements before, though? I'm sure the OGM made him that more valuable to the companies that already had him.

 

[prettykeys]

I think it is funny the different opinions of prestige of the different events. I will have to say Olympics ,ECC and Worlds has the prestige do to age. Due to the fact that i didn't start following figures skating til the 90's . They are not that important to me as a fan. As a fan the GP series is where the will competition is and is what i care about the most . The rest a fun traditional showcases for me. ECC only show case European skaters so it leaves a lot to yearn for. At 1/3 of the top skaters cant even compete at Worlds. It still a huge event to win do to the competition but the GPF is just as hard or even harder to win. So it is proably different view of a skater but for me the GP is the meat and potatoes and the rest is just dessert. The whole way isu has competitions set up is kind backwards compared to most sports were the prestigious events are the hardest to win and have the highest level of competition. To win the gpf you have have 6 good performances. To win worlds you might need four, possibly only two if your patrick chan.

I agree with you. Not only is the Grand Prix a lot of fun for me to follow, but I do consider winning it to be a demonstration of consistency. You do need to have 6 decent performances. However, I don't think it is as prestigious not only because it's not as old as the other competitions, but because sometimes you can get the best skaters knocking each other out befre the GPF just by being at a Grand Prix event together, whereas weaker skaters competing against weaker fields, can still qualify. Worlds and Olympics generally have the very best skaters competing all at once.

 

[R.D.]

^ well, same thing happens in team sports when the top teams in one conference are significantly stronger than the top teams in the other conference, right? Unless you use a "tournament" format, generally you are not always going to have the two best teams in the league fighting it out in the Finals/World Series/Super Bowl/etc.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

In Tennis every contestant has a rank. The Top Seed competes against the low-ranked player and so forth. This enables the quarters, semis and Finals to be high ranked contestants. Just not practical in FS.

However, the GP system gives the most qualified players a chance to affirm the results in 4 contests (Sps and LPs) for most contestants, and the best of the contests meet in the Final. What more could you ask for in studying the different players? The other major events (4 Seasons, Euros, and Nationals have limited contestants), and Worlds/Olys is the 2 night shot at fame which comes with questionable results. Furthermore, they do not give us the Best Skater of the Season - just the best that night. How many Oly results are you happy with? GPs are a steady fight to the finish for qualified skaters. No argument exists. That's SPORT.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

If we extended your arguement, Joesitz, then you could argue that sport isn't just about one season of GPs, or worlds or anything, but the total span of one's career. Michelle Kwan has such stature simply because of the breadth of her success.

Secondly, if you're gonna say the Worlds/Olympics have "questionable" results, what's to stop the GP from producing the exact same "questionable" results, thus undermining your arguement that the GPs are more SPORT than the rest.

You mention the limited contestants, but the GPs have their own rules as to who can and cannot participate. Cheltzie Lee, despite being an Olympian, isn't participating in this GP series (and she's certainly no worse than the bottom third of this grouping), for example. And if you can find a GP event (including the final) that has a stronger group of contestants than Eurors or even 4 Continents at it's best, I'd be surprised.

How is it more sport when the entire group can't face head-to-head? Joannie Rochette didn't make the GPF in the 07/08 season because she had unusually hard line-ups, but the scores she posted were amongst the highest of the season. You mention rankings in tennis, but do you know how often tennis fans complain about the ranking system that produces a top player that hasn't actually won a Grand Slam?

How many Olympic results am I happy with? From 2010? Three (Kim, V/M, S/Z). That's more than I can say for any particular GP event

The magic of sport is that you have to be on when it counts. The one-night-wonders don't make exciting athletes for the ages, but they do make people who put their competitive mettle to the higest test and came out ahead. That's SPORT.

 

[janetfan]

A good argument Pogue. Joe also makes some good points.
I like skating so I like the GP.

The GP is fun for the skaters as we hear they socialize alot and even go shopping together.

No such thing happens at the Olympics where too much is on the line. Being the champion of COC is not and will never be in the same as being World champion or Olympic champion.

I like the more competitive atmoshere of Natls, Worlds and the Olympics. I also like the GP since we get to see our skaters competiting in a more relaxed setting - where they often are there to try out new programs or jump techniques - and even costumes.

It feels like hockey or baseball to me. I watch regular season games - but when the playoffs come my interest reaches a different level - same as it does for the athletes.

 

[Mathman]

I think we are kind of missing Joe's point. Of course no skater would rather win Cup of China than the Olympics. But the question is, what form of competition is best suited for determining a legimate "world champion" in figure skating.

Here are three models that we might consider.

(a) The round robin tournament. The Grand Prix is set up in this way, sort of.

(b) The current method. Each national federation sends its chosen representatives to a big international conflab..

(c) The "open" model. The top-ranked skaters all compete as individuals with no constraint on nationality. (This would diminish the importance of national championships.)

Unfortunately, analogies to other sports are not very useful. The NCAA college basketball tournament is spectacularly successful. But figure skating is not basketball. In golf, the "world champion" is not the guy who wins any one particular event, but the guy who finishes on top of the money list.

All of these models have pros and cons. I don't think that one is necessarily more "sport-like" than another. One thing that I like about the round robin/Grand Prix model is that, to me, it gives spectators a more exciting ride for their money as they follow their favorites through the mine-field that leads -- maybe! -- to the finals.

Then again, I also like the heart-in-the-throat thrill of one big whoop, winner takes all, especially U.S. Nationals. :yes:

 

[janetfan]

I think we are kind of missing Joe's point. Of course no skater would rather win Cup of China than the Olympics. But the question is, what form of competition is best suited for determining a legimate "world champion" in figure skating.

Here are three models that we might consider.

(a) The round robin tournament. The Grand Prix is set up in this way, sort of.

(b) The current method. Each national federation sends its chosen representatives to a big international conflab..

(c) The "open" model. The top-ranked skaters all compete as individuals with no constraint on nationality. (This would diminish the importance of national championships.)

Unfortunately, analogies to other sports are not very useful. The NCAA college basketball tournament is spectacularly successful. But figure skating is not basketball. In golf, the "world champion" is not the guy who wins any one particular event, but the guy who finishes on top of the money list.

All of these models have pros and cons. I don't think that one is necessarily more "sport-like" than another. One thing that I like about the round robin/Grand Prix model is that, to me, it gives spectators a more exciting ride for their money as they follow their favorites through the mine-field that leads -- maybe! -- to the finals.

Then again, I also like the heart-in-the-throat thrill of one big whoop, winner takes all, especially U.S. Nationals. :yes:

I like your points as well as what Pogue and Joe said. Some of this is just a matter of personal taste.

If I had paid today to see the Men - I might have wondered if a refund was availabe as I found it rather dull without a single standout performance. Maybe others felt differently - but it did not feel like much of a competition to me.

But sometimes we see that at Natls or Worlds as well.

The GP tends to keep the best skaters apart (last season the Ladies at TEB was an exception) so I don't see that as more competitive but rather less competetive.

Here is the definition of a round robin:

"A round-robin tournament or all-play-all tournament is a type of tournament "in which each contestant meets all other contestants in turn".

Not sure the GP is a round robin - but I like it and would say most skating fans like it because it is skating.

 

[Mrs. P]

Ladies final lineup:

Miki Ando — 30
Alissa Czisny — 26 (1st and 3rd) + 332.17
Carolina Kostner — 26 (1st and 3rd)+319.48
Kankano Murakami — 26 (1st and 3rd) + 315.09
Akiko Suzuki — 26 (two silvers) + 335.60
Rachael Flatt — 26 (two silvers) + 323.90

Alternates —
Kiira Korpi — 24 (4th and 1st)
Mirai Nagasu — 22 (4th and 2nd)
Ashley Wagner — 28 (5th and 3rd +310.75 beats Cynthia and Amelie)

 

[Layfan]

Sigh. Bummer that Mao and Mirai didn't make it. I would NOT have guessed that after last season.

You know, of this bunch, Rachael is the likeliest to stay on her feet for two straight programs. She could actually win her first major international competition. Definitely, she could snag her first medal at an international competition. On the other hand, she is injured and might skip it, right?

Miki is obviously the favorite. She's not my favorite (not with this year's programs) but she clearly the favorite.

Since Carolina is injured, I don't predict a good event for her.

If they actually skate clean, I predict Alissa and Akiko have the best shot at upset victories.