Mid-Season Report: U.S. Ladies, R.D. Style

[R.D.]

But in previous years it was obvious who was going, anyway (perhaps with exception of spot #3). This is the first year (at least since I've been following) that there's been so much competition at the TOP level and that it could be any of these girls. the real question is whether simply sending 1-2 in this situation is the BEST method, particularly when certain skaters tend to perform better under pressure internationally. Hmm.

YMMV, of course.

 

[Layfan]

I couldn't agree more... when was the last time the USFSA was willing to bump the 1-2 skaters from the Olympic team because fans on boards thought that should happen?

you don't think the USFSA is reading all these threads and seriously considering our points?

It's true it's all Internet babble. There was the case in 2006 when they let Michelle Kwan go instead of the bronze medalist, Emily Hughes.

But neither Rachael or Ashley are five-time World champions and nine-time U.S. Champions.

 

[janetfan]

the real question is whether simply sending 1-2 in this situation is the BEST method, particularly when certain skaters tend to perform better under pressure internationally. Hmm.
.

How well did Rachael skate at 4CC last year? Did she even break the top 10?

Wasn't she clearly beaten by Caroline and Joannie at WTT?

She did place 5th at Worlds but don't you think US Skating remembers how many bad performances it took for Rachael to finish fifth?

It's not like Rachael's score was that close to 4th place Mao let alone 1st place Yuna.

Rachael had a chance to shine at COC and she did not shine at all. If she was such a great international performer she should have been a factor at COC. I don't think she was.

 

[Kwanford Wife]

you don't think the USFSA is reading all these threads and seriously considering our points?

It's true it's all Internet babble. There was the case in 2006 when they let Michelle Kwan go instead of the bronze medalist, Emily Hughes.

But neither Rachael or Ashley are five-time World champions and nine-time U.S. Champions.

Exactly. And there are still people steamed about that... This is a new generation of skaters - the future of American figure skating. If they want the glory, let them put in the work.

As to your first point: OF COURSE they listen to the boards. How do you think they knew to engrave Yuna's OGM with her name?!?

 

[R.D.]

How well did Rachael skate at 4CC last year? Did she even break the top 10?

I thought she was 5th, right behind Zhang

Don't remember it being her best performance though.

Wasn't she clearly beaten by Caroline and Joannie at WTT?

I don't remember, nor did I see "WTT".

Rachael had a chance to shine at COC and she did not shine at all. If she was such a great international performer she should have been a factor at COC. I don't think she was.

Well, it's not like any of the other US ladies have asserted themselves as "dominant" anyway. Well, best of luck to everyone, and let's hope for fair judging and minimal (ideally, no) padding of scores based on reputation/performance in prior comps.

 

[janetfan]

Well, it's not like any of the other US ladies have asserted themselves as "dominant" anyway. Well, best of luck to everyone, and let's hope for fair judging and minimal (ideally, no) padding of scores based on reputation/performance in prior comps.

Yes, I agree, best of luck to ALL of them and may the top two ladies at Natls go to Vancouver. And that includes Sasha but only if she earns it fair and square.

 

[silverlake22]

From where I sit - we have five skaters, six if you want to throw Akiko into the mix of true medal contenders headed to Vancouver. One has the edge, two have the talent / potential, one is a headcase, one will be hometown fav, and one is new on the scene, sorta. And then there's one who could show up at Nationals and make this a mute point with a convincing victory and / or 1st place short program and 2nd in the long.
.

Wait who are you refering to here?
edge = Yuna
talent = Miki, Mao
headcase = Carolina? or Alissa? I think Alissa is a very longshot for a medal
hometown fav = Joannie
new to the scene = Akiko
the one from nationals = Rachael or Alissa?
Is that what you meant or am I wrong?

 

[Layfan]

Wait who are you refering to here?
edge = Yuna
talent = Miki, Mao
headcase = Carolina? or Alissa? I think Alissa is a very longshot for a medal
hometown fav = Joannie
new to the scene = Akiko
the one from nationals = Rachael or Alissa?
Is that what you meant or am I wrong?

I think she meant:

Edge = Yuna
Talent = Miki, Mao
Headcase = Carolina
Hometown fav = Joannie
New to the scene = Akiko

Definitely Alissa is not a true contender.

But would it be that crazy to put Rachael in where Akiko is? Personally, I much prefer Akilo's skating. But Rachael is capable of as many points.
And let's for the sake of argument take Carolina and Mao out of the mix. Neither were medalists in 2008 and both seem to have gotten worse this season.

then the true contenders are:
Yuna
Miki
Joannie

And given Joannie's recent meltdowns..... it's not impossible to think Rachael could pull off a medal. Just saying.

 

[R.D.]

And given Joannie's recent meltdowns..... it's not impossible to think Rachael could pull off a medal. Just saying.

Argh, you're beginning to indirectly get my hopes up ...and I KNOW it's not a realistic situation, anyway

Anyway, it's all just "internet chatter" as some other poster put it. Realistically, the Americans are out of it ( ) barring a major meltdown by the faves AND an SOHL (I think only Flatt can reach that step: I think the judges will hold the other Americans back due to jump issues or whatever)

 

[PolymerBob]

I thought she was 5th, right behind Zhang

Don't remember it being her best performance though.

I don't remember, nor did I see "WTT".

At 4CC, Caroline was 4th, Rachael was 7th and Alissa was 9th.

 

[silverlake22]

I think she meant:

Edge = Yuna
Talent = Miki, Mao
Headcase = Carolina
Hometown fav = Joannie
New to the scene = Akiko

Definitely Alissa is not a true contender.

But would it be that crazy to put Rachael in where Akiko is? Personally, I much prefer Akilo's skating. But Rachael is capable of as many points.
And let's for the sake of argument take Carolina and Mao out of the mix. Neither were medalists in 2008 and both seem to have gotten worse this season.

then the true contenders are:
Yuna
Miki
Joannie

And given Joannie's recent meltdowns..... it's not impossible to think Rachael could pull off a medal. Just saying.

^^ Thanks for clarifying. And I agree about Rachael, I know people say that the title of miss consistency isn't truely fitting of her, but compared to the meltdowns of Mao, Carolina, and Joannie we've seen recently, she is more consistent than most. Also, in the field of American ladies with Ashley, Alissa, Mirai, and Caroline being all over the place this season (not Ashley so much but has been in the past) I'd say Rachael is consistent compared to her competition. I know at China she was blah, but she SHOULD have gotten bronze b/c Kiira's somehow managed to convince the judges with her good looks that her mess of a freeskate deserved the silver

A lot of things could happen, but I'd say Rachael has as good a shot as Carolina certainly, especially considering Carolina's disasterous 1 triple freeskate last year at worlds....Also, we'll see if the pressure gets to Joannie. I think we could be in for a few surprises

 

[R.D.]

At 4CC, Caroline was 4th, Rachael was 7th and Alissa was 9th.

That's right, I remember now! she was 7th and Czisny 9th and the talk was how they had no hope for 3 Oly spots if they couldn't even add up to 13 at 4CCs let alone worlds. Thanks for reminding me, again.

___________________

ETA: As for Flatt and the "consistency" label, well, isn't the term "consistent" always a RELATIVE term rather than an absolute one? I mean, there's no cut and dry definition of "consistent", right? (I mean it, of course, in the way it's used in skating talk, not its formal definition.)

I would say relative to her competitors, she IS consistent, and very much so at that. How many meltdowns and disappointments have we seen already, even among the top skaters? Skaters that might have been labeled "inconsistent" in the days of Kwan and Slute might seemingly fit right in now, because EVERYONE has demonstrated that they have off-nights, and more often than expected. The Olys are getting close and the skaters feel it more and more as the tension builds. Can't imagine what they'll be feeling on The Big Night, that's for sure.

 

[Nigel]

How well did Rachael skate at 4CC last year? Did she even break the top 10?

Wasn't she clearly beaten by Caroline and Joannie at WTT?

She did place 5th at Worlds but don't you think US Skating remembers how many bad performances it took for Rachael to finish fifth?

It's not like Rachael's score was that close to 4th place Mao let alone 1st place Yuna.

Rachael had a chance to shine at COC and she did not shine at all. If she was such a great international performer she should have been a factor at COC. I don't think she was.

Flatt switched LPs shortly after 4CC back to the freeskate she used the prior season. She probably trained that program for 3-4 weeks max before worlds. And maybe another 2 week before WTT. I am cutting Flatt some slack here. To go back to a senior level program that she hadn't trained in almost 14 months and do as well as she did at Worlds/WTT is pretty amazing. None of those other ladies switched programs at the end of the season.

Consistency issue: Flatt routinely goes for ALL her jumps. Can't say that for some of the other US ladies. Don't know if there were extenuating circumstances at CoC, but I don't ever recall Flatt making excuses. Not her style.

 

[silverlake22]

Flatt switched LPs shortly after 4CC back to the freeskate she used the prior season. She probably trained that program for 3-4 weeks max before worlds. And maybe another 2 week before WTT. I am cutting Flatt some slack here. To go back to a senior level program that she hadn't trained in almost 14 months and do as well as she did at Worlds/WTT is pretty amazing. None of those other ladies switched programs at the end of the season.

Consistency issue: Flatt routinely goes for ALL her jumps. Can't say that for some of the other US ladies. Don't know if there were extenuating circumstances at CoC, but I don't ever recall Flatt making excuses. Not her style.

You make a good point about changing her program so late. And Flatt doesn't make excuses, which is why I like her so much. She also doesn't play it safe and double lots of jumps like Joannie and the European ladies do. She goes out there and attacks each jump.

Also whoever said that Joannie's PCS will hold her up, they will, but if she lands 3 or even 4 clean triples and Flatt lands 7, I don't think her PCS will even let her pass Rachael's score.

 

[Layfan]

^^ Thanks for clarifying. And I agree about Rachael, I know people say that the title of miss consistency isn't truely fitting of her, but compared to the meltdowns of Mao, Carolina, and Joannie we've seen recently, she is more consistent than most. Also, in the field of American ladies with Ashley, Alissa, Mirai, and Caroline being all over the place this season (not Ashley so much but has been in the past) I'd say Rachael is consistent compared to her competition. I know at China she was blah, but she SHOULD have gotten bronze b/c Kiira's somehow managed to convince the judges with her good looks that her mess of a freeskate deserved the silver

A lot of things could happen, but I'd say Rachael has as good a shot as Carolina certainly, especially considering Carolina's disasterous 1 triple freeskate last year at worlds....Also, we'll see if the pressure gets to Joannie. I think we could be in for a few surprises

I hate to keep beating a dead horse but Alissa was not any more "all over the place" this season than Ashley was. Their scores were about the same in the GP series. Ashley was lucky to make it to the finals. She didn't even outscore Alissa, much less Flatt.

 

[R.D.]

I hate to keep beating a dead horse but Alissa was not any more "all over the place" this season than Ashley was. Their scores were about the same in the GP series. Ashley was lucky to make it to the finals. She didn't even outscore Alissa, much less Flatt.

Well, but they competed head-to-head in Russia did they not? And one of them grabbed silver while the other finished OTP

That said, if anything, it just shows that the scoreboard is *almost* reset come Nationals.

 

[Kwanford Wife]

Argh, you're beginning to indirectly get my hopes up ...and I KNOW it's not a realistic situation, anyway

Anyway, it's all just "internet chatter" as some other poster put it. Realistically, the Americans are out of it ( ) barring a major meltdown by the faves AND an SOHL (I think only Flatt can reach that step: I think the judges will hold the other Americans back due to jump issues or whatever)

Ah RD... you're so cute when you're excited and borderline positive...

I think she meant:

Edge = Yuna
Talent = Miki, Mao
Headcase = Carolina
Hometown fav = Joannie
New to the scene = Akiko

Definitely Alissa is not a true contender.

But would it be that crazy to put Rachael in where Akiko is? Personally, I much prefer Akilo's skating. But Rachael is capable of as many points.
And let's for the sake of argument take Carolina and Mao out of the mix. Neither were medalists in 2008 and both seem to have gotten worse this season.

then the true contenders are:
Yuna
Miki
Joannie

And given Joannie's recent meltdowns..... it's not impossible to think Rachael could pull off a medal. Just saying.

Thank you for clarifying for me... that's exactly who I meant. However, when I talk about one skater being a lock with a win or 2nd place finish, I am referring to Sasha. I just don't see the USFSA resisting the temptation to send her to the Games provided she shows up and skates well at National. Its like putting chocolate chip cookies in front of a five year old and saying "don't touch" while walking out the room... it's not gonna happen.

And I don't think its impossible for Rachel to medal at the games. However, I don't think its probable either. But a top five finish at Worlds? Absolutely.

 

[silverlake22]

And I don't think its impossible for Rachel to medal at the games. However, I don't think its probable either. But a top five finish at Worlds? Absolutely.

Why are worlds and the Olympics any different? The same skaters will be there. Do you mean that Rachael has a good shot at top 5 at the Olympics if she makes the team?

 

[Kwanford Wife]

Why are worlds and the Olympics any different? The same skaters will be there. Do you mean that Rachael has a good shot at top 5 at the Olympics if she makes the team?

No. Historically, several medalists and fourth placers don't show at the next Worlds... leaving room for the next generation space to grab some attention for themselves ala Kimmie in '06.

I totally see Rachel doing that this year and let's be honest, for the US ladies Worlds '10 is the only place this season they will have a chance to take centerstage and start rebuilding for Stoci.

 

[Layfan]

Well, but they competed head-to-head in Russia did they not? And one of them grabbed silver while the other finished OTP

That said, if anything, it just shows that the scoreboard is *almost* reset come Nationals.

Yes, your last point really is the bottom line, except I'd take out "almost." None of the leading U.S. ladies, except Caroline, bombed during the GP series and all had their ups and downs. I honestly think the GP series will not count for much at nationals.