Mikhail Kolyada

[Spiral]

Of course, he’s right that men need more than one kind of quad today to be competitive at the highest level, like to win medals at the GPF, Worlds and Olympics. But at the same time, he said that he normally learns new things gradually – and that despite that he’d been practicing the quad Lutz only since COR – for 3 weeks – before he’d put it into his LP at NHK, admitting that criticism on the Internet had played a part in his decision. Fans and federations always want everything at once, but we’ve seen what the pressure to deliver here and now has done to Kovtun. Even now, when this pressure has mostly moved on to Mikhail, Maxim seems unable to slug it off. And Mikhail has made costly mistakes even in his LP at COR – with his usual jump content and without the jet lag, obviously due to nerves.

If Russia had a top man with a guaranteed podium finish now, like it’d had in the past, both skaters would have been allowed to develop at their natural pace. I think we should look at Adam Rippon who’s qualified for the GPF with just one quad toe-loop. He doesn’t let the facts that he’s the reigning US national champion and that he’s 27, so the next year’s Olympics is likely to be his last, to rush him into upending his tech content overnight. Mikhail is just 21. He could have a long future in the sport, if pressure to get instant result doesn’t make him perpetually unstable. Perhaps, one should become part of the top six, not just as result of one competition, but as a matter of course, before attempting to become a fixture in the top three.

 

[Tutto]

=vorravorra;1566146]It is true that Misha has never been good at saving underrotated jumps, he either rotates them or drops to the ground. I guess being naturally a good jumper he's had no pressing need to learn.

We could send him to certain Japanese quarters to learn that!

From what he describes in the interview it's obvious that he was heavily jetlagged in addition to being exhausted after a long flight. It's the first time in his life he had to perform right after travelling that far East, so he had trouble making head or tail of the experience except that his body didn't really feel right on the ice. Thankfully Chelyabinsk is only 2 hours ahead of St. Petersburg.

And Ostrava & Helsinki closer still! The question is to get there...

I don't think it's jumps and spins he needs help with, but maybe overall physical fitness? I have a suspicion he simply needs better stamina to skate a two-quad program without losing elements down the line. Especially considering it's not an easy program as someone correctly noted in the NHK men's free skate thread. Not sure who'd be available to help with it though. He already works with a psychologist, of course it's possible that a different psychologist would do a better job, but which?

Well I didn't mean he needs help with jumps or spins, I just see a lot of similarities between Tsareva & Valentina - both no-pedigree coaches with just one world class student. Tsareva's had a few more years of experience as it is Anna's fourth season in seniors and obviously she realised that outside help is the way to go. And yes I agree with you that stamina is probably the biggest issue right now. Even cleanly landed 4Lz is no good if there is no strength left to skate the rest of the program.
Also Mika himself saying in the latest interview kindly translated by Buton - (thank you!), he learns things at his own pace. But the situation is such that time is not on his side. The pressure is mounting on him from every quarter, it is a very stressful situation. I still think it would be wiser not to try 4lz at Russian Nats, he could do solo 4T and another in combination. His 4T-3T at CoR was a thing of beauty! Another problem with 4lz is that he misses second 3lz in the free the jump which was his point collector so far.
Ohh Christmas this year is going to be stressful! Imagine if he lands 4Lz there but bombs the rest of the program (one scenario) and finishes off the podium - will the Fed still put him on the team for Euros & Worlds? It is hard to say. If not the landed lutz will be a very poor consolation in missing the most important competitions. I honestly hope it is a very unlikely scenario but you never know..
But we only can wait and see...

 

[Tutto]

Of course, he’s right that men need more than one kind of quad today to be competitive at the highest level, like to win medals at the GPF, Worlds and Olympics. But at the same time, he said that he normally learns new things gradually – and that despite that he’d been practicing the quad Lutz only since COR – for 3 weeks – before he’d put it into his LP at NHK, admitting that criticism on the Internet had played a part in his decision. Fans and federations always want everything at once, but we’ve seen what the pressure to deliver here and now has done to Kovtun. Even now, when this pressure has mostly moved on to Mikhail, Maxim seems unable to slug it off. And Mikhail has made costly mistakes even in his LP at COR – with his usual jump content and without the jet lag, obviously due to nerves.

If Russia had a top man with a guaranteed podium finish now, like it’d had in the past, both skaters would have been allowed to develop at their natural pace. I think we should look at Adam Rippon who’s qualified for the GPF with just one quad toe-loop. He doesn’t let the facts that he’s the reigning US national champion and that he’s 27, so the next year’s Olympics is likely to be his last, to rush him into upending his tech content overnight. Mikhail is just 21. He could have a long future in the sport, if pressure to get instant result doesn’t make him perpetually unstable. Perhaps, one should become part of the top six, not just as result of one competition, but as a matter of course, before attempting to become a fixture in the top three.

I totally agree with you and I feel for Mika- he is a skater who really wants to perform the program as well as do the tech but he is no longer allowed to grow at his own pace. It is a curse of Russian men that any potential contender since Plush gets crushed under the weight of expectations. It is a true test of character, lets hope that Mika has it in him to cope with all this.

 

[vorravorra]

Well I didn't mean he needs help with jumps or spins, I just see a lot of similarities between Tsareva & Valentina - both no-pedigree coaches with just one world class student. Tsareva's had a few more years of experience as it is Anna's fourth season in seniors and obviously she realised that outside help is the way to go. And yes I agree with you that stamina is probably the biggest issue right now. Even cleanly landed 4Lz is no good if there is no strength left to skate the rest of the program.
Also Mika himself saying in the latest interview kindly translated by Buton - (thank you!), he learns things at his own pace. But the situation is such that time is not on his side. The pressure is mounting on him from every quarter, it is a very stressful situation. I still think it would be wiser not to try 4lz at Russian Nats, he could do solo 4T and another in combination. His 4T-3T at CoR was a thing of beauty! Another problem with 4lz is that he misses second 3lz in the free the jump which was his point collector so far.
Ohh Christmas this year is going to be stressful! Imagine if he lands 4Lz there but bombs the rest of the program (one scenario) and finishes off the podium - will the Fed still put him on the team for Euros & Worlds? It is hard to say. If not the landed lutz will be a very poor consolation in missing the most important competitions. I honestly hope it is a very unlikely scenario but you never know..
But we only can wait and see...

The Fed wouldn't be putting pressure on him with the goal of leaving him at home. It's not like he has a lot of competition - if he did, the Fed wouldn't be on his case in the first place. And even with a skate like at NHK he would have got a substantially higher score at the Nats, with no carrot on the 4Lz and higher PCS at a minimum (which of course doesn't mean he should aim for repeating that skate). Also, a 4Lz program doesn't actually require taking out one of the triple lutzes. They did it because they were unsure, but they don't have to do it indefinitely. And the truth is we have never seen him do a two 4T program and don't know if it's actually easy for him to skate. A screwed up 4Lz in itself is not a problem, only its possible negative effect on the rest of the program is, and we don't know the effect of 4T+3T-4T.

We shouldn't ascribe too much to external pressure, though it definitely plays a role. It's not like Misha had plans to skate his programs with one quad for a season or two longer and then the Fed forced him into doing two. He always planned to do two, and I am certain he is not prepared to just give up on those plans. He is pretty stubborn and determined.

Another thing to remember is that Misha doesn't really need to become unstable as he's never been stable in the first place, even without either quads or pressure. It's him producing good skates reliably that would be a new and welcome development. And there is probably no layout that would guarantee consistency. So far I am prepared to settle for him pulling himself together when and where it really matters. If he can't even manage that then we really have a problem.

I have found it interesting that Misha in no way expected to pop 4T to 3T in the SP (in fact he says it was a total shock), but still had the presence of mind to think back to a similar mistake he had made over a year ago when he had the second 3T invalidated and not to repeat it. This is incidentally the kind of thing Kovtun was never capable of.

 

[buton]

And another interview in Russian. They were talking about his military service (he is officialy in Russian army till the may of 2017), injuries - he had a lot of them, but only one had happend on a rink, the rest were consequences of "the happy childhood". Now he became more prudent and professional. And a little bit about relationship with other skaters, doping, family and so on.
http://www.interessant.ru/sport/mikhail-koliada-1

The interview is dated by 11/29, but I think they did it earliar then NHK and maybe Rostelecom too.

 

[vorravorra]

A painting of Misha from a Japanese fan:

https://66.media.tumblr.com/c60dcdc20e76d4efe5293801f2207bcd/tumblr_ohcv0qt3SP1vkk2z2o1_1280.jpg

 

[vorravorra]

And another interview in Russian. They were talking about his military service (he is officialy in Russian army till the may of 2017), injuries - he had a lot of them, but only one had happend on a rink, the rest were consequences of "the happy childhood". Now he became more prudent and professional. And a little bit about relationship with other skaters, doping, family and so on.
http://www.interessant.ru/sport/mikhail-koliada-1

The interview is dated by 11/29, but I think they did it earliar then NHK and maybe Rostelecom too.

A question in the interview references Misha's fifth place at NHK so they couldn't have done it earlier unless the question was changed post factum.

 

[buton]

A question in the interview references Misha's fifth place at NHK so they couldn't have done it earlier unless the question was changed post factum.

Maybe you are right, I just was confused that the almost half of the season is done, and they didn't mention anything about it. Though it could be it was not supposed to be a key topic of the interview by its authers.

 

[vorravorra]

Maybe you are right, I just was confused that the almost half of the season is done, and they didn't mention anything about it. Though it could be it was not supposed to be a key topic of the interview by its authers.

This is the bit here they do:

На чемпионате мира, где заняли четвертое место, и на недавно завершившемся в Японии этапе Гран-при, где заняли пятое место, вы практически на равных сражались с лучшими из лучших. Какое впечатление произвели лидеры современного мирового одиночного катания - испанец Хавьер Фернандес и японец Юдзуру Ханю?

 

[Tutto]

The Fed wouldn't be putting pressure on him with the goal of leaving him at home. It's not like he has a lot of competition - if he did, the Fed wouldn't be on his case in the first place. And even with a skate like at NHK he would have got a substantially higher score at the Nats, with no carrot on the 4Lz and higher PCS at a minimum (which of course doesn't mean he should aim for repeating that skate). Also, a 4Lz program doesn't actually require taking out one of the triple lutzes. They did it because they were unsure, but they don't have to do it indefinitely. And the truth is we have never seen him do a two 4T program and don't know if it's actually easy for him to skate. A screwed up 4Lz in itself is not a problem, only its possible negative effect on the rest of the program is, and we don't know the effect of 4T+3T-4T.

We shouldn't ascribe too much to external pressure, though it definitely plays a role. It's not like Misha had plans to skate his programs with one quad for a season or two longer and then the Fed forced him into doing two. He always planned to do two, and I am certain he is not prepared to just give up on those plans. He is pretty stubborn and determined.

Another thing to remember is that Misha doesn't really need to become unstable as he's never been stable in the first place, even without either quads or pressure. It's him producing good skates reliably that would be a new and welcome development. And there is probably no layout that would guarantee consistency. So far I am prepared to settle for him pulling himself together when and where it really matters. If he can't even manage that then we really have a problem.

I hope so too and a spot on Euro team is sort of guaranteed, Worlds are different matter though. Voronov seems to have a strong season, Kovtun normally skates well at the Nats, Petrov is Mr Consistency. As of now Mika hasn't skated a clean program in any of three competitions he entered this season - Finlandia, CoR and NHK. The best skate was his short at CoR but even there were some mistakes. He needs to skate clean if not for the Fed then for his own confidence. The judges have been quite good to Mika on PCS (ironically with his present PCS received for messy skates, he would have been on the podium in Boston after skating 2 flawless programs) but will they continue to reward him so if he does not deliver? Of course I am not against the second quad I am all for it but to include the most difficult jump in competition after just a few weeks of practising it- it is madness IMHO. At least they could leave options open instead of announcing that he will be doing 4Lz at Nats - more pressure which was totally avoidable.

Edit: I have to admit that my opinion is influenced by a desire to see his LP skated clean - I can't make my mind about this program!

BTW we need to find the way to update the OP but only a poster who started the thread can do it- what shall we do?

 

[cathlen]

BTW we need to find the way to update the OP but only a poster who started the thread can do it- what shall we do?

You can always ask Doris to update when you'll have a post ready

 

[vorravorra]

I hope so too and a spot on Euro team is sort of guaranteed, Worlds are different matter though. Voronov seems to have a strong season, Kovtun normally skates well at the Nats, Petrov is Mr Consistency. As of now Mika hasn't skated a clean program in any of three competitions he entered this season - Finlandia, CoR and NHK. The best skate was his short at CoR but even there were some mistakes. He needs to skate clean if not for the Fed then for his own confidence. The judges have been quite good to Mika on PCS (ironically with his present PCS received for messy skates, he would have been on the podium in Boston after skating 2 flawless programs) but will they continue to reward him so if he does not deliver? Of course I am not against the second quad I am all for it but to include the most difficult jump in competition after just a few weeks of practising it- it is madness IMHO. At least they could leave options open instead of announcing that he will be doing 4Lz at Nats - more pressure which was totally avoidable.

Edit: I have to admit that my opinion is influenced by a desire to see his LP skated clean - I can't make my mind about this program!

I wrote a lengthy reply before realising all of it can be summed up in one sentence - Misha should have no problem beating everyone other than Kovtun at the Nats unless he falls apart, and if he does that, then maybe he actually shouldn't go anywhere this season.

 

[Spiral]

We shouldn't ascribe too much to external pressure, though it definitely plays a role. It's not like Misha had plans to skate his programs with one quad for a season or two longer and then the Fed forced him into doing two. He always planned to do two, and I am certain he is not prepared to just give up on those plans. He is pretty stubborn and determined.

He may have planned to add another quad, but not after just three weeks of practicing it. And I don’t think one can make specific plans on the timing here – who can tell in advance when a given skater is going to master a given jump?

Another thing to remember is that Misha doesn't really need to become unstable as he's never been stable in the first place, even without either quads or pressure. It's him producing good skates reliably that would be a new and welcome development.

Well, he was quite good in Boston, but if he’s had a problem with consistency in the past, pressure is only going to make it worse, so I think both the Fed and fans need to be patient.

Of course I am not against the second quad I am all for it but to include the most difficult jump in competition after just a few weeks of practising it- it is madness IMHO. At least they could leave options open instead of announcing that he will be doing 4Lz at Nats - more pressure which was totally avoidable.

Exactly!

I wrote a lengthy reply before realising all of it can be summed up in one sentence - Misha should have no problem beating everyone other than Kovtun at the Nats unless he falls apart, and if he does that, then maybe he actually shouldn't go anywhere this season.

I agree that with a good skate, Kovtun is the only one who can beat him, provided Kovtun himself skates well. Petrov and even Voronov don’t have the tech content yet. In fact, in Mikhail’s place, unless his 3S or 4Lz becomes stable by Nationals, I’d have done two 4Ts in the LP. He may lose to Kovtun, if Maxim skates a clean LP, but he’ll still go to Euros and Worlds, and he can add a new quad jump when it’s ready.

Reg. Kovtun’s stability at the nationals, I think that before he generally came there as the favorite, except for the year he won over Plushenko, but this time he won’t have the Fed’s support behind him. In fact, this year Rus Fed probably won’t have a favorite among men at Nats – it’ll be entirely up to the skaters to put out two challenging, but good quality performances to earn a medal. Come to think of it, this is probably the first time in Kovtun’s senior career that he’s not guaranteed a berth to Worlds if he screws up. We’ll see how it affects his performance. (I’m not wishing for his failure at all, just thinking how it may play out, and what Mikhail’s chances are.)

 

[vorravorra]

He may have planned to add another quad, but not after just here weeks of practicing it. And I don’t think one can make specific plans on the timing here – who can tell in advance when a given skater is going to master a given jump?

Well, he was quite good in Boston, but if he’s had a problem with consistency in the past, pressure is only going to make it worse, so I think both the Fed and fans need to be patient.

If he hadn't had problems with consistency the world would have heard of him before last season - there wasn't any conspiracy to keep him from the public. But I don't think the inconsistency was due to nerves to any substantial degree.

I agree that with a god skate, Kovtun is the only one who can beat him, provided Kovtun himself skates well. Petrov and even Voronov don’t have the tech content yet. In fact, in Mikhail’s place, unless his 3S or 4Lz becomes stable by Nationals, I’d have done two 4Ts in the LP. He may lose to Kovtun, if Maxim skates a clean LP, but he’ll still go to Euros and Worlds, and he can add a new quad jump when it’s ready.

The only problem is that he has never tried that layout in a competition, and maybe there is a reason for that. And we don't know what they have been told regarding the content expected of Misha at the Nats. As Misha has said, it's a delicate situation - this is a pre-olympic season and a lot of people are going to be looking at the skaters with some possible long-range plans. He almost certainly understands his position better than we do and I doubt he is his own enemy.

Reg. Kovtun’s stability at the nationals, I think that before he generally came there as the favorite, except for the year he won over Plushenko, but this time he won’t have the Fed’s support behind him. In fact, this year Rus Fed probably won’t have a favorite among men at Nats – it’ll be entirely up to the skaters to put out two challenging, but good quality performances to earn a medal. Come to think of it, this is probably the first time in Kovtun’s senior career that he’s not guaranteed a berth to Worlds if he screws up. We’ll see how it affects his performance. (I’m not wishing for his failure at all, just thinking how it may play out, and what Mikhail’s chances are.)

Yes, we'll see. Neither produced a perfect performance at the last Nats, so the placement on the podium was decided almost solely by PCS, and it might come to that again. It'll be interesting to see how the judges decide to distribute PCS this season. If it's fair Misha should beat everyone by a substantial margin, but it's never been that, it has been used as an instrument for ranking skaters the way they wanted them ranked. I doubt they will be stingy with PCS in Misha's case, but there are degrees.

 

[Spiral]

If he hadn't had problems with consistency the world would have heard of him before last season - there wasn't any conspiracy to keep him from the public.

I’ve heard that he’d had injuries.

But I don't think the inconsistency was due to nerves to any substantial degree.

How do you know?

The only problem is that he has never tried that layout in a competition, and maybe there is a reason for that. And we don't know what they have been told regarding the content expected of Misha at the Nats. As Misha has said, it's a delicate situation - this is a pre-olympic season and a lot of people are going to be looking at the skaters with some possible long-range plans. He almost certainly understands his position better than we do and I doubt he is his own enemy.

Well, it can’t be a more difficult layout than 4T and 4S or 4T and 4Lz. It looks likely to me that he went for a more difficult content so fast because of the pressure to deliver rather than because he couldn’t have done two 4Ts. And if anybody in the Fed told him that they expect some specific content from him by a specific time, they must be total idiots if they believe that jumps can be mastered on order. The only way to deal with such people is to say nothing and then follow common sense. If they actually do say anything about it afterwards, which I doubt, he could just tell them the truth – that he tried, but can’t do it yet. Federations look at skaters with OG in mind in any season, but real decisions are made only in the Olympic season itself. Nor would he help his chances by trying ambitious content and bombing his programs.

 

[vorravorra]

I’ve heard that he’d had injuries.

Misha broke his leg in the summer of 2014 when his blade got caught in a crack in the ice during a twizzle, and sat out most of the following season as a result. That was his only figure skating injury in his entire career, he has actually been quite lucky in the matters of health (knock on wood).

How do you know?

Things he said, things people who know him said and what I have seen for myself. Misha had a problem stabilising jumps when he was younger, so his skates were rather hit and miss. It was similar with his 4T last season, but it took less time to get it right than with say 3A - he was still having trouble with the latter in 2013-2014 which was his third season of doing it in competitions. 3Lo also used to be his nemesis.

Well, it can’t be a more difficult layout than 4T and 4S or 4T and 4Lz. It looks likely to me that he went for a more difficult content so fast because of the pressure to deliver rather than because he couldn’t have done two 4Ts. And if anybody in the Fed told him that they expect some specific content from him by a specific time, they must be total idiots if they believe that jumps can be mastered on order. The only way to deal with such people is to say nothing and then follow common sense. If they actually do say anything about it afterwards, which I doubt, he could just tell them the truth – that he tried, but can’t do it yet. Federations look at skaters with OG in mind in any season, but real decisions are made only in the Olympic season itself. Nor would he help his chances by trying ambitious content and bombing his programs.

If 4Lz is going to ruin his entire FS then of course he shouldn't do it. I am just saying that if we here on an Internet forum realise this, he probably does too. He has shown in the past that he is quite aware of his problems.

 

[Tutto]

I wrote a lengthy reply before realising all of it can be summed up in one sentence - Misha should have no problem beating everyone other than Kovtun at the Nats unless he falls apart, and if he does that, then maybe he actually shouldn't go anywhere this season.

It may be true but sounds a bit too harsh - lets not forget Mika is the one who saved 2 spots for Russian men in the first place! Even if he is not at his best at Nats there is still time to regain form for Euros. My hunch is however that Voronov will be Russian Champion this year with Mika/ Kovtun in second/ third place (in no particular order!) or if either of them falls apart altogether, Petrov will take the bronze again.

Well, it can’t be a more difficult layout than 4T and 4S or 4T and 4Lz. It looks likely to me that he went for a more difficult content so fast because of the pressure to deliver rather than because he couldn’t have done two 4Ts. And if anybody in the Fed told him that they expect some specific content from him by a specific time, they must be total idiots if they believe that jumps can be mastered on order. The only way to deal with such people is to say nothing and then follow common sense. If they actually do say anything about it afterwards, which I doubt, he could just tell them the truth – that he tried, but can’t do it yet. Federations look at skaters with OG in mind in any season, but real decisions are made only in the Olympic season itself. Nor would he help his chances by trying ambitious content and bombing his programs.

Ironically the 4T+3T and solo 4T have a base value of 24.9 (14.6+10.3) which is more than 4lz and 4T -23.9 (13.6+10.3).
With the latest FS layout as at NHK they aim at about 88pt base value, last season his FS had base value of 78 which with GOE gave him in Boston 93 TES. This season due to mistakes/falls all his FS were from 63.11 (Finlandia) -65.99 (NHK) to 71.04 (CoR) in TES.
One of the issues for me is that they started trying a new quad right at the start of the season without gaining any decent form first - this along with unfortunate mess with his SP caused such bad start of the season. Instead of correcting this the things only got worse as the season progresses - endless changes of layout, switch from 4S to 4lz. IMHO when 4S didn't work out at B-comp ie Finlandia they should have put a hold on a second quad (I mean second as a different quad) till the next small competition, continuing to work on it in practice of course. The GPs were too important events for experiments, if Mika was to go to GPF (as he realistically could have done) it would have gained him as much ground (and probably more) with the Fed than an elusive second quad.
Last season Valentina seemed to be in total command of the situation - between the Nats and Euros she was saying in interviews that Mika would definitely try 4S in Bratislava undoubtedly due to the same pressure. As we know it never happened and I don't remember any particular outcry about it afterwards.
This season all common sense seems to be gone out of the window - so more is the pity.

Edit: there is only so much one can do in given time. If to compare last season's FS, it is gone from a 5/3 to 4/4 layout + there are more transitions in the program + attempts of second quad. Is there any wonder that Mika is unable to skate clean?

 

[Tutto]

If 4Lz is going to ruin his entire FS then of course he shouldn't do it. I am just saying that if we here on an Internet forum realise this, he probably does too. He has shown in the past that he is quite aware of his problems.

Well may be, or maybe when you are in the middle of trouble it is harder to see your way out

 

[Li'Kitsu]

Ironically the 4T+3T and solo 4T have a base value of 24.9 (14.6+10.3) which is more than 4lz and 4T -23.9 (13.6+10.3).

Mhm... but counting it like that doesn't really make sense. The BV is just higher because you put the 3T there, which you could also do with 4T3T + 4Lz. Or he could put the 3T basically anywhere else. It's actually quite the opposite - the real advantage with getting a 2nd type of quad over repeating the 4T is that it allows you to repeat another jump. With 2 4T, Mika can only do 1 3A or 1 3Lz, with a 4S/4Lz he can repeat both the 3A and 3Lz. Both have the next highest BVs and are basically his money jumps. There is a very big advantage to getting a 2nd type of quad (for him more than say Adam Rippon, IMO, as Mika is also missing a 3F).

One of the issues for me is that they started trying a new quad right at the start of the season without gaining any decent form first - this along with unfortunate mess with his SP caused such bad start of the season. Instead of correcting this the things only got worse as the season progresses - endless changes of layout, switch from 4S to 4lz. IMHO when 4S didn't work out at B-comp ie Finlandia they should have put a hold on a second quad (I mean second as a different quad) till the next small competition, continuing to work on it in practice of course. The GPs were too important events for experiments, if Mika was to go to GPF (as he realistically could have done) it would have gained him as much ground (and probably more) with the Fed than an elusive second quad.

When should he start attempting a 4S or 4Lz then? Next season is the Olympic season, that would be way worse than any competition in this one. And he can't go out there and do countless 'small' competition, especially if his stamina is already an issue - he will at some point have to risk it at an 'important' competition. Including a new element often takes a while, you can't back down again just after the first failure. So often skaters are strong with a new jump in practices and still struggle at competitions - attempting the jumps at actual competitions is the only way to really learn how to land them at competitions. Which means he has to throw it out there at comps at some point, even at the risk of messing up for a while.
And is the GPF really that important? In a long-term goal sense, I don't think so. Yes, maybe with only a 4T he would have made the GPF, but he would have probably had little chance of getting on the podium, and the same is true for worlds (yes, others might mess up again, like Patrick and Shoma did at last seasons Worlds, but I'm sure Mika doesn't just want to have to count on that forever). If he gets a 2nd type of quad, that could really change. I think there's merit to their tactic (even though I don't think changing his layout basically every competition is a smart idea), and this is pretty much the best time to risk it - unless you want to wait until 2019.

Edit: there is only so much one can do in given time. If to compare last season's FS, it is gone from a 5/3 to 4/4 layout + there are more transitions in the program + attempts of second quad. Is there any wonder that Mika is unable to skate clean?

So what if he's unable to skate clean now? How many men actually do? He's gotta attempt all that stuff to land it one day.

 

[vorravorra]

It may be true but sounds a bit too harsh - lets not forget Mika is the one who saved 2 spots for Russian men in the first place! Even if he is not at his best at Nats there is still time to regain form for Euros. My hunch is however that Voronov will be Russian Champion this year with Mika/ Kovtun in second/ third place (in no particular order!) or if either of them falls apart altogether, Petrov will take the bronze again.

Misha's SB is still just a tad higher that Voronov's even with the subpar performances this season. And they can easily give Misha PCS high enough to beat Voronov if they so choose provided the scores are in the same ballpark. But even if Voronov does a bit better it won't matter I guess. Misha was far from his best at the last Nationals too (the BV of the FS he produced was just 70.80), but he doesn't need to be to get a place on the podium. What he does need to show is that he can pull himself together for important competitions like he has been able to do in the past.

Ironically the 4T+3T and solo 4T have a base value of 24.9 (14.6+10.3) which is more than 4lz and 4T -23.9 (13.6+10.3).
With the latest FS layout as at NHK they aim at about 88pt base value, last season his FS had base value of 78 which with GOE gave him in Boston 93 TES. This season due to mistakes/falls all his FS were from 63.11 (Finlandia) -65.99 (NHK) to 71.04 (CoR) in TES.
One of the issues for me is that they started trying a new quad right at the start of the season without gaining any decent form first - this along with unfortunate mess with his SP caused such bad start of the season. Instead of correcting this the things only got worse as the season progresses - endless changes of layout, switch from 4S to 4lz. IMHO when 4S didn't work out at B-comp ie Finlandia they should have put a hold on a second quad (I mean second as a different quad) till the next small competition, continuing to work on it in practice of course. The GPs were too important events for experiments, if Mika was to go to GPF (as he realistically could have done) it would have gained him as much ground (and probably more) with the Fed than an elusive second quad

They did what you are suggesting at CoR - decided to play it safe and left the second quad out in FS. Had it worked they would have probably done it again - but it didn't. At NHK, especially after that SP, they obviously felt like they had nothing to lose.

Last season Valentina seemed to be in total command of the situation - between the Nats and Euros she was saying in interviews that Mika would definitely try 4S in Bratislava undoubtedly due to the same pressure. As we know it never happened and I don't remember any particular outcry about it afterwards.
This season all common sense seems to be gone out of the window - so more is the pity.

The reason they tried 4S this season was not because of pressure but because it was good in practices. One has to try a jump at competitions sometime. 4Lz on the other hand might have had more to do with pressure.

Edit: there is only so much one can do in given time. If to compare last season's FS, it is gone from a 5/3 to 4/4 layout + there are more transitions in the program + attempts of second quad. Is there any wonder that Mika is unable to skate clean?

A 4/4 layout is still easier than what just about everyone else does these days. And Misha's program doesn't have a gazillion transitions, what it does have is a lot of choreography which of course takes up energy. But choreography is Misha's strength, it would be wrong to dispense with it in the name of a second quad. And Shoma-style 2.5-transition programs are hardly the way to go. Misha didn't really skate clean last season either till Worlds. I don't think he's ever skated clean with any consistency in his entire career, maybe he just can't.