Nathan Chen

[sheetz]

According to my calcs even with watered down programs Nathan is still slightly ahead of Grassl for highest total jump BV:

SP
Fa 32.20
Grassl 35.50
Hanyu 32.20
Uno 33.50
Kolyada 28.19
Nathan 33.65


FS
Fa 66.42
Grassl 74.62
Hanyu 74.00
Uno 73.92
Kolyada 68.02
Nathan 76.60

 

[Joe Mendoza]

I want to make a poll called “Will Nathan land both of his 3As in the WTT free skate this time” but I don’t want to tempt fate

This plan seems pretty ad-hoc for WTT. In terms of long term strategy, there’s no point in trying a five-quad and double 3A layout unless he gets a 3A+3T combo. He loses more point from downgrading one of the combos from -3T to -2T than he gains from upgrading the 3Lz to the 3A. (He could also switch the 3A2T to the 3Lo3T here for a 0.2 point drop in BV and a more significant drop in my stress level )

Yay to no 4Lz and one 3Lz

yep - planned content to actual content will always be a game time decision for that gy - which is exciting me. we shall see what other jumps he tries out during practice

 

[LutzDance]

planned content to actual content will always be a game time decision for that gy

He’s changing his layout as we speak: just landed 4F 3A 4T3T in SP practice

https://twitter.com/hitkurasawa/status/1382147347879141377?s=21

ETA: A beauty of a solo 4F from OP

https://twitter.com/sydthepasserby/status/1382183202417086464?s=21

 

[zebobes]

In terms of long term strategy, there’s no point in trying a five-quad and double 3A layout unless he gets a 3A+3T combo. He loses more point from downgrading one of the combos from -3T to -2T than he gains from upgrading the 3Lz to the 3A.

The problem with two 3A isn't actually his lack of 3A-3T combo. I'm pretty sure that Nathan could do it if it was necessary, but it's the fact that he can only repeat two jumps, of which only one can be a quad, and currently he is already repeating the 4T and 3T. To repeat the 3A, he would have to remove one 3T, and in order to maximize his combos, he would have to add a 3Lo combo, or what I have been secretly hoping, a back-half 4T combo, which he has been rumored to do in practice sessions.

Now, I don't really think it likely that he will do a back-half 4T next season, as it wouldn't be enough time for him to really stabilize it in competition for the Olympics. His technical score is so much higher than everyone else, there really isn't a huge incentive, especially as a quad-quad combo is not currently allowed in the SP. As for the 3Lo, he has never done one in competition, though I have seen video of an eked out one that wasn't particularly pretty.

I know Rafa in a lot of his interviews seems really gung-ho about increasing the difficulty, and that the clean 5 Quad programs aren't that special in comparison with his much harder layout in 2018, but this year he has successfully raised his SP base value to be as high as it can be without a 4A. If Nathan chose to switch his 4F in the FP at WTT again with a 4Lo, I would find the 6 quad program to be more likely for next year.

 

[LutzDance]

The problem with two 3A isn't actually his lack of 3A-3T combo. I'm pretty sure that Nathan could do it if it was necessary, but it's the fact that he can only repeat two jumps, of which only one can be a quad, and currently he is already repeating the 4T and 3T. To repeat the 3A, he would have to remove one 3T, and in order to maximize his combos, he would have to add a 3Lo combo, or what I have been secretly hoping, a back-half 4T combo, which he has been rumored to do in practice sessions.

Ah you’re right, how could I oversee that. (ok I know why; in my brain 3A exists as a separate category from triples and quads so I forgot to count it in ) I have been secretly wishing for him to do a 3Lz3Lo or 3F3Lo combo, though they come with little BV advantage in a 5 quad layout. Now back to rooting for double 4F

 

[sheetz]

Short practice clip. Oda said Nathan was really solid.

https://twitter.com/bebesho17/status/1382184357151059969

 

[Joe Mendoza]

The problem with two 3A isn't actually his lack of 3A-3T combo. I'm pretty sure that Nathan could do it if it was necessary, but it's the fact that he can only repeat two jumps, of which only one can be a quad, and currently he is already repeating the 4T and 3T. To repeat the 3A, he would have to remove one 3T, and in order to maximize his combos, he would have to add a 3Lo combo, or what I have been secretly hoping, a back-half 4T combo, which he has been rumored to do in practice sessions.

Now, I don't really think it likely that he will do a back-half 4T next season, as it wouldn't be enough time for him to really stabilize it in competition for the Olympics. His technical score is so much higher than everyone else, there really isn't a huge incentive, especially as a quad-quad combo is not currently allowed in the SP. As for the 3Lo, he has never done one in competition, though I have seen video of an eked out one that wasn't particularly pretty.

I know Rafa in a lot of his interviews seems really gung-ho about increasing the difficulty, and that the clean 5 Quad programs aren't that special in comparison with his much harder layout in 2018, but this year he has successfully raised his SP base value to be as high as it can be without a 4A. If Nathan chose to switch his 4F in the FP at WTT again with a 4Lo, I would find the 6 quad program to be more likely for next year.

he probably does not need it, but does the FS need to include a single axel-type jump or can it be a combo? was thinking maybe he could do a 3A1Eu3S or something instead of a non-combo.

and as much as most of us get nervous with the difficulty he throws out there, I could also see him do a 6-quad layout for FS - not for WTT but for 2022:

4Lo 4F3T 4Lz 4S (or 3A or 3A1Eu3S*) 4T1Eu3F 4T3T 3A (or 4S)

*(unless skaters can't repeat an Euler jump either?)

 

[zebobes]

he probably does not need it, but does the FS need to include a single axel-type jump or can it be a combo? was thinking maybe he could do a 3A1Eu3S or something instead of a non-combo.

and as much as most of us get nervous with the difficulty he throws out there, I could also see him do a 6-quad layout for FS - not for WTT but for 2022:

4Lo 4F3T 4Lz 4S (or 3A or 3A1Eu3S*) 4T1Eu3F 4T3T 3A (or 4S)

*(unless skaters can't repeat an Euler jump either?)

The axel can be in combo. The ISU doesn't limit repeating Euler jumps, but it does limit combinations, with only one 3 jump combo allowed, so repeating Euler jumps would be pointless.

I agree though, that moving the 4Lo to the beginning and replacing the 3Lz with a 4Lz is the most likely next upgrade possible. Shoma has been trying the 3A-4T in practice, which would be a really cool combination, but I doubt that Nathan's 3A jump would be suitable to add a 4T to.

Even though I love Nathan skating crispy clean, I also love the excitement of seeing him unveil a new technical trick. On the other hand, you can argue it didn't work out for him at the last Olympics, but since then, Nathan has seemed to learn the art of only peaking when he is skating against Yuzuru, and he seems to hold back slightly at other competitions.

Last WTT, Yuzuru didn't skate, and Nathan easily took the win, but he seemed a little tired there. What will be fascinating is to see them skate at two back to back competitions. Nathan is already planning on tamping down the technical side, will he also do so on the performance wise, or will there be extra fire from competing in front of a live audience, and erasing the memory of the short from worlds?

 

[Apple1078]

Last WTT, Yuzuru didn't skate, and Nathan easily took the win, but he seemed a little tired there. What will be fascinating is to see them skate at two back to back competitions. Nathan is already planning on tamping down the technical side, will he also do so on the performance wise, or will there be extra fire from competing in front of a live audience, and erasing the memory of the short from worlds?

IIRC he was really sick at WTT 2019. Hence, he was met by someone with a plastic bag after the FS... just in case, I guess.

 

[1111bm]

Yeah, he was pretty sick at WTT 2019 with flu/cold symptoms. And he was reportedly vomiting after practice, from the over-exertion I assume, which is common when you overdo it in a weakened physical state.
I remember feeling so bad for him at the medal ceremony, because he looked so weak and feverish.

 

[1111bm]

...will he also do so on the performance wise, or will there be extra fire from competing in front of a live audience...

I thought there isn't supposed to be an audience anymore because of the recent rise in covid cases?

 

[sheetz]

4F from afternoon run thru

https://www.instagram.com/p/CNpKSUnpLEn/

Big news today that Raf will begin "consulting" with Trusova. Wouldn't be surprised to see her visiting Irvine over the summer.

 

[georgia]

4F from afternoon run thru

https://www.instagram.com/p/CNpKSUnpLEn/

Big news today that Raf will begin "consulting" with Trusova. Wouldn't be surprised to see her visiting Irvine over the summer.

Evgeni Plushenko @EvgeniPlushenko
We agreed to cooperate with my friend and outstanding coach-Maestro Rafael Harutyunan. I hope our collaboration in work in the new season will bring a lot of things that we lacked in the current. Flexed biceps

 

[sheetz]

SP practices are being aired on JPTV. Clean runthru for Nathan, and reports are that he changed some of the choreography.

 

[sheetz]

SP Run thru

https://www.instagram.com/p/CNrARNBpCsr/

 

[discode]

Great SP at WTT. The best he's done that program.

 

[journalist101]

Having fun in the Kiss and Cry with Jean-Luc.

https://twitter.com/about_Nathan/status/1382670389021601792

Best performance of this short all season

https://twitter.com/aboutNathan_vid/status/1382649881626480644

 

[sheetz]

I think I liked some of the early versions of Desperado more, even though he performed it well this time. Fortunately we have those on video.

Lynn Rutherford article

https://www.teamusa.org/News/2021/April/15/Nathan-Chen-Shines-On-Day-1-Of-World-Team-Trophy

 

[1111bm]

All I saw was Nathan's head floating bodiless across the ice.

He definitely seemed more into the performance than before, there was more freedom in his arm movements and he seemed to be having more fun with it. It looked like he decided to give it more an interpretation of his own.
Although I still prefer the ISP and SA versions because they felt tighter and more energetic (and I preferred the initial layout).

 

[1111bm]

Aww, and the way he was smiling and interacting with JLB after his skate, so totally at ease and happy to have his friend there with him, it was just the cutest thing! It's nice people got to see a glimpse of what I assume is closer to his real personality.

Seriously, who needs Raf, can we replace him with JLB in all future competitions?