Now that it's official, can Michelle win the OGM?

[equestrianguy]

By basically skating the exact same program year after year with different music?

Doesn't Irina do the same thing?..lol I'm sorry, but Irina's programs are the same year, after year, after year. SAME program, different music. Irina, also has done the same spins for what...10 years now? lol At least Sasha has changed her spins and spirals around everyonce in awhile for the new system. I think is normal too see the same style from a skater year and year. It's not like they are going to change their God given talent to look like someone else skating every year.

 

[MidnightNess]

Doesn't Irina do the same thing?..lol I'm sorry, but Irina's programs are the same year, after year, after year. SAME program, different music. Irina, also has done the same spins for what...10 years now

Well I won't go THAT far in regards to Irina but I will say this year's programs in comparison to last year's is basically the same. The EXACT same spins, the SAME spiral sequence except she added that horrific fan spiral that's even worse than Kwan's, I haven't looked closely enough at her footwork sequences but I would'nt be surprised if they were similiar since she likes doing one-foot footwork. Unfortunately, this is not limited to Irina nor will it ever be limited to her until the rules change--she found the ways to the highest levels last season and basically copied/pasted them onto this program with little change to the original program layout. It's what we're going to see unless COP undergoes some major tweaking.

As for Kwan, I don't think she's going into the Olympics with level1 and 2 elements this time. She rarely makes the same mistake twice. According to the reports, she just needs to hold certain elements longer to gain the higher level. That and her health are my only concerns now. I believe we're going to see all level 3 and 4 elements this time, she's serious about it. How she performs her programs and how she is judged is just a 'wait and see' gig.

 

[sk8rgrl3]

Doesn't Irina do the same thing?..lol I'm sorry, but Irina's programs are the same year, after year, after year. SAME program, different music. Irina, also has done the same spins for what...10 years now? lol At least Sasha has changed her spins and spirals around everyonce in awhile for the new system. I think is normal too see the same style from a skater year and year. It's not like they are going to change their God given talent to look like someone else skating every year.

I completely agree. Irina is not one of my favorite skaters. I find her quite boring, but I admire her as a person and as a skater. She has overcome a lot. I would not mind it one bit if she won. I think that you are going to find a lot of generic programs skated, especially the way the new scoring system is set up. If you haven't noticed all the spin combos look the same, all of the spiral sequences look the same as well as the footwork. It is killing me that I have to teach my students a back sit spin on an inside edge. I think it is one of the ugliest spins they are doing now, but if you want to win you have to play by the new scoring system or you will be screwed. Whether or not you agree with it.
I do think that you do have a natural skating style, but sometimes I think you need to go outside your comfort zone. Especially if you are going to hang around in Seniors for 13 years. Irina kind of fell of the radar screen for awhile, then was sick, and then had an amazing comeback. Michelle, we have seen now, year after year since 93'.

 

[VIETgrlTerifa]

I think people are really underestimating Kwan's ability to adapt to the COP. Talking about if she has a shot at the OGM and if she'll do the jumps aside, she's not some novice level skater.

Lest we forget that Kwan had the second highest base value in Moscow during the LP, second to Cohen. Kwan had the worst skate of her life, and yet still placed ahead of skaters who did the GP event and had a whole year's experience with COP. And she had the highest scoring FW of the whole competition, tied with Dyrt.

During the test skate, I think the committee is positive that she can get the levels she needs to be competitive. Kwan had a level 3 spiral sequence and the Cy, the tech specialst, gave her pointers in how to make it a level 4. They also gave her pointers on what the judges are looking for in the fw and told her to utilize more of the ice surface and to do some different body positions. They also reviewed her spins and told her how to change her upperbody and told her how to do them, and they saw that she was able to do those positions.

She may have slow spins, but she's certainly capable of doing the positions that COP will reward.

 

[demarinis5]

I agree with your post VietgrlTerifa. I don't buy into the theory that Kwan
is at a disavantage because of her inexperience with COP. Come on people
you don't have to be a rocket scientist to adapt to COP after all, what it
comes down to is a numbers game. The highest score gets the gold.

 

[Ogre Mage]

These people are smoking something I think. Sorry. Atleast it is not as bad as earlier in the year when some were thinking she was a real contender for Oly gold. Her venture onto the GP circuit this year brought reality into play for most though.

I don't see why we are smoking something because we think Kwan will be on the Olympic Podium. Last time I checked, she didn't suddenly morph into Ludmila Nelidina. The fact she has already won two Olympic medals and was always on the Worlds podium from 1996-2004 and 4th in 1995 and 2005 speaks volumes about her consistency and strength as a competitor. That's a record none of the other ladies can claim. I also agree with those who think she will skate a polished, elegant performance regardless of what the actual results are.

Come on people you don't have to be a rocket scientist to adapt to COP

Well, actually I fear that you do have to be a rocket scientist. The rulebook is apparently thick as a phone book. Getting feedback under the CoP system multiple times allows the skater to look at the element and component breakdowns and see what specific areas they need to improve in. Michelle has not had this opportunity. I also think the Olympics is a very unfortunate time to debut your programs. It takes many performances to work them into your muscle memory. If anyone can pull it off, however, it is Michelle.

 

[Tonichelle]

These people are smoking something I think.

to take from the movie Cool Runnings "I'm not smokin', I'm breathin'!"

I don't think it's anymore "laughable" to say that people who see her medalling or even winning as it was 4 years ago when the Sarah contingency said she would not only beat Sasha in the standings but win the whole thing (ok so there was a smaller number saying that than MK fans but still).

I don't see it happening unless a lot of people make mistakes, but I've never been good at predicting outcomes, so what do I know?

but to say that people have to be on some sort of drug to be thinking they way they do is not only rude, but is just wrong. We all have our hopes... I would love to see Gregory & Petukhov on the podium or win. Does that make me stupid? No, just a fan. *shrugs* (and yes i do see it as similar. While they aren't coming off injury, they certainly aren't known for being in podium contention... Michelle is in the same boat in a way... just with a more "impressive" resume)

 

[R.D.]

I don't see why we are smoking something because we think Kwan will be on the Olympic Podium. Last time I checked, she didn't suddenly morph into Ludmila Nelidina. The fact she has already won two Olympic medals and was always on the Worlds podium from 1996-2004 and 4th in 1995 and 2005 speaks volumes about her consistency and strength as a competitor. That's a record none of the other ladies can claim. I also agree with those who think she will skate a polished, elegant performance regardless of what the actual results are.

This was a response to my comment...and I said the people that think KIMMIE will be on the podium, not MK.

 

[Ogre Mage]

This was a response to my comment...and I said the people that think KIMMIE will be on the podium, not MK.

Whoops, my bad. Please ignore previous post.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

By basically skating the exact same program year after year with different music?

Unfortunately, that's the way it is in the short program - same old tricks year after year for all skaters. It's supposed to be a technical competition but it comes down to being, who does the clean program and then who's the best performer.

Joe

 

[mhu714]

While my most fervent wish is to see Michelle win the OGM, I cannot in good conscience say that I think she has a good chance. Vash, I understand your theory that MK will have less pressure on her now than when she was odds on to win in'98, or when she was a co-favorite in '02, but here's why I still think she'll feel immense pressure in '06: No matter how little she's skated this year, or how little experience she has with COP, she is still going to receive inordinate attention bec of who she is and her resume. Not to mention the "controversy" of how she made the team. This is also her last Oly go around, which brings pressure in itself, as everyone knows getting the gold medal is probably the main (if not only) reason she's stuck around in the amateur eligible category. My fear (aside from whether or not she'll be in prime skating shape) is not MK's inexperience with COP, but the lack of opportunities for international judges to see and judge her.

Looking at things from a logical POV, which includes how her main competition has skated and how they've been judged, also informs my opinion that her chances to win are sparse. Let's face it, MK will likely not be doing any 3/3s, though she apparently may do a 3/2/2. Even if one subscribes to the argument that a 3/3 isn't nec to win (which I do, but only if the main comp also don't do any), I can't imagine Irina not outshining MK technically--her jumps are higher, her spins faster, she does her Beillmans allover the place, racking up the points, and she will very likely perform more clean triples. MK always used to beat Irina on the strength of her presentation marks. These days, however, Irina seems to get consistent PCS marks in the 8's (though I confess to not really understanding why. She's good, but not that good, IMHO). My realistic hope is for Michelle to skate 2 wonderful programs and get a silver or bronze, which I do think is realistic, though perhaps not very likely given her injury plagued season and rush to get in shape.

Forget MK, can anyone beat Irina? The short answer, IMO, is that if she skates cleanly, no. If she doesn't there are still only a few who realistically can get the points to win. Sasha, if she does the heretofore unattainable and skates 2 clean programs, has a definite shot. In fact, IF Sasha can do that, I believe an argument could be made that she should win, even if Irina also skates cleanly. But enough of fantasizing about Sasha, who likely will make a couple of bobbles like she always does. A couple of the Japanese contingent have a puncher's chance, as does hometown girl Carolina (though she's been so inconsistent this season I don't think she'll even crack the top 5). Who else is there? Sokolova? Sorry, no. Kimmie, as the latest 16 yo USA phenom? Impossible, though I do like her to be one of the favorites in '10. So, it's basically Irina's gold to lose.

 

[cianni]

Possible

Not counting anyone in or out. I remember HUGHES I guess she must have been the odds on fav to win. By golly she did just that. Irina has been winning with inflated points that were and are laughable but the Olys will be watched with a scrutiny as never before. I like Irina as a person but as a skater she is NOT that great to get the marks she gets and never was. Im not betting on her just showing up and walla she wins. I just keep remembering HUGHES. That Ice is slippery and the judges better live up to the scrutiny.

 

[RealtorGal]

I hope Michelle skates well, but at this point, I don't even see her making the podium.

While Sarah skated a sub-par performance at the '02 Nationals, we all knew she did have a variety of 3/3s in her arsenal, which she pulled out at the Olympics. She was in good health and had performed throughout the season.

OTOH, Michelle is not in the greatest physical shape (as her jumps at the test proved) and has not performed all season and hardly at all last season as well. Still, there will be a lot of publicity about Michelle's "journey" and the public will love and appreciate her no matter what happens. It will be a TV ratings bonanza.

 

[Mathman]

OTOH, Michelle is not in the greatest physical shape (as her jumps at the test proved) and has not performed all season and hardly at all last season as well. Still, there will be a lot of publicity about Michelle's "journey" and the public will love and appreciate her no matter what happens.

I agree on both points. It will be a miracle if Michelle makes the podium or contends for the gold. (But what better place for a miracle than the Olympic games?)

Michelle is in a win-win situation. If she wins -- yay, Michelle!

If she doesn't -- yay, Michelle!

MM

PS. Go Matt Savoie and Silverstein and O'Meara!

 

[cianni]

Mm

Thats about it if she wins, YA MICHELLE. IF she doesnt ,YA MICHELLE she wins both ways. People love a comeback story. People love the one who doesnt give up . Michelle wins big time no matter what the outcome . I feel sorry for the winner IF the person doesnt deserve the win. No lock this time.

 

[flowjo35]

I am not sure about her physical shape (she looks to be in much better shape then she did in December), but her stamina must be good in order for her to do two programs back to back within a span of minutes. Who knows what will happen in three weeks, but I have learned never to count out Michelle. Good luck Michelle and kick some serious ice at the olympics.

 

[slutskayafan21]

I don't see why we are smoking something because we think Kwan will be on the Olympic Podium. Last time I checked, she didn't suddenly morph into Ludmila Nelidina. The fact she has already won two Olympic medals and was always on the Worlds podium from 1996-2004 and 4th in 1995 and 2005 speaks volumes about her consistency and strength as a competitor. That's a record none of the other ladies can claim. I also agree with those who think she will skate a polished, elegant performance regardless of what the actual results are.

Actually my smoking something comment was regarding Meissner being on the Olympic podium.

 

[Vash01]

While my most fervent wish is to see Michelle win the OGM, I cannot in good conscience say that I think she has a good chance. Vash, I understand your theory that MK will have less pressure on her now than when she was odds on to win in'98, or when she was a co-favorite in '02, but here's why I still think she'll feel immense pressure in '06: No matter how little she's skated this year, or how little experience she has with COP, she is still going to receive inordinate attention bec of who she is and her resume. Not to mention the "controversy" of how she made the team. This is also her last Oly go around, which brings pressure in itself, as everyone knows getting the gold medal is probably the main (if not only) reason she's stuck around in the amateur eligible category. My fear (aside from whether or not she'll be in prime skating shape) is not MK's inexperience with COP, but the lack of opportunities for international judges to see and judge her.

Looking at things from a logical POV, which includes how her main competition has skated and how they've been judged, also informs my opinion that her chances to win are sparse. Let's face it, MK will likely not be doing any 3/3s, though she apparently may do a 3/2/2. Even if one subscribes to the argument that a 3/3 isn't nec to win (which I do, but only if the main comp also don't do any), I can't imagine Irina not outshining MK technically--her jumps are higher, her spins faster, she does her Beillmans allover the place, racking up the points, and she will very likely perform more clean triples. MK always used to beat Irina on the strength of her presentation marks. These days, however, Irina seems to get consistent PCS marks in the 8's (though I confess to not really understanding why. She's good, but not that good, IMHO). My realistic hope is for Michelle to skate 2 wonderful programs and get a silver or bronze, which I do think is realistic, though perhaps not very likely given her injury plagued season and rush to get in shape.

Forget MK, can anyone beat Irina? The short answer, IMO, is that if she skates cleanly, no. If she doesn't there are still only a few who realistically can get the points to win. Sasha, if she does the heretofore unattainable and skates 2 clean programs, has a definite shot. In fact, IF Sasha can do that, I believe an argument could be made that she should win, even if Irina also skates cleanly. But enough of fantasizing about Sasha, who likely will make a couple of bobbles like she always does. A couple of the Japanese contingent have a puncher's chance, as does hometown girl Carolina (though she's been so inconsistent this season I don't think she'll even crack the top 5). Who else is there? Sokolova? Sorry, no. Kimmie, as the latest 16 yo USA phenom? Impossible, though I do like her to be one of the favorites in '10. So, it's basically Irina's gold to lose.

Your point about the international judges not having seen Kwan skate this year is well taken. Hopefully the practice sessions will help them see her in a positive light.

I don't think Sasha needs two clean programs to win. Her marks have often been inflated because she is flexible and has gorgeous lines. Her edges or speed do not compare with Irina's. Her wobbly landings on jumps (except the 2A) have always bothered me, but that is often ignored in the scoring. FS is afterall a sport, and I feel that Irina deserves the high marks she gets. The PCS criteria are not solely based on lines and flexibility. If both skate cleanly, I think Irina should win but she may not because the judges seem to love Sasha. They are just waiting to hand her the Olympic gold because she is more lady like. Irina had her moment at the 2005 worlds; I don't see it happening again even though she is the favorite to win in Torino.

Michelle is the most complete skater. She has the flexibility, the lines, and the athleticism, although her jumps may not be as powerful as Irina's. If she skates her heart out the way she did at the 2000 and 2001 worlds, she can be a contender for the gold in Torino.

I don't see Kimmie's win as 'impossible'. We saw in 2002 that anything can happen. Carolina seems to be getting back on track. She will have the speed and the crowd on her side, so she has an outside shot at the gold (if others make mistakes).

I really don't see any of the Japanese ladies challenging for the gold. Not that they don't have the talent but I don't see any of them rising to the occasion and give a great performance when it counts. Shizuka or Fumie could be on the podium but not at the top.

So the field is wide open, with Irina and Sasha as the favorites. Michelle has a better chance of winning the gold than any of the other ladies. She has the strongest mind and the strongest motivation to win it (last chance). If anyone can handle pressure, it's her. She did handle it in 1998. IMO Irina will be happy with or without the gold. I think Sasha really wants it and so does Michelle. That could be the deciding factor. It may come down to Sasha vs. Michelle, like at the US nationals. Out of these two, Michelle handles pressure better.

Vash

 

[slutskayafan21]

Lest we forget that Kwan had the second highest base value in Moscow during the LP, second to Cohen.

Lest we forget Irina lost about 5 points for doing a 3rd triple loop, had she done a second triple flip or second triple lutz she would have gained an additional 5.5-6 points and had the highest base value. Lest we forget Irina and Sasha were flawed in their shorts and still beat a clean Michelle under COP.

Kwan had the worst skate of her life, and yet still placed ahead of skaters who did the GP event and had a whole year's experience with COP.

What a bunch of baloney. She did not have a great skate, but worst skate of her life? She tried 6 triples, fell on one, and 2-footed another, that is the worst skate of her life. 97 U.S Nationals was worse, 2004 qualifying round of Worlds was worse, 2005 qualifying round of Worlds was worst, 2001-02 Skate Canada long and 2001-2002 Goodwill Games and 2001-2002 Masters were all worse. She has had many times a worse performance than her long at Worlds last year.

Also many of her competitors had worse skates in the final long than she did. Arakawa certainly did, Miki Ando, Rochette.

During the test skate, I think the committee is positive that she can get the levels she needs to be competitive. Kwan had a level 3 spiral sequence and the Cy, the tech specialst, gave her pointers in how to make it a level 4. They also gave her pointers on what the judges are looking for in the fw and told her to utilize more of the ice surface and to do some different body positions. They also reviewed her spins and told her how to change her upperbody and told her how to do them, and they saw that she was able to do those positions.

Done by U.S officials and judges, the scores given out at U.S Nationals were by some of these same people, including some of the element levels which were even skewed for the competitors at that event.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Your point about the international judges not having seen Kwan skate this year is well taken. Hopefully the practice sessions will help them see her in a positive light.

I don't think Sasha needs two clean programs to win. Her marks have often been inflated because she is flexible and has gorgeous lines. Her edges or speed do not compare with Irina's. Her wobbly landings on jumps (except the 2A) have always bothered me, but that is often ignored in the scoring. FS is afterall a sport, and I feel that Irina deserves the high marks she gets. The PCS criteria are not solely based on lines and flexibility. If both skate cleanly, I think Irina should win but she may not because the judges seem to love Sasha. They are just waiting to hand her the Olympic gold because she is more lady like. Irina had her moment at the 2005 worlds; I don't see it happening again even though she is the favorite to win in Torino.

Michelle is the most complete skater. She has the flexibility, the lines, and the athleticism, although her jumps may not be as powerful as Irina's. If she skates her heart out the way she did at the 2000 and 2001 worlds, she can be a contender for the gold in Torino.

I don't see Kimmie's win as 'impossible'. We saw in 2002 that anything can happen. Carolina seems to be getting back on track. She will have the speed and the crowd on her side, so she has an outside shot at the gold (if others make mistakes).

I really don't see any of the Japanese ladies challenging for the gold. Not that they don't have the talent but I don't see any of them rising to the occasion and give a great performance when it counts. Shizuka or Fumie could be on the podium but not at the top.

So the field is wide open, with Irina and Sasha as the favorites. Michelle has a better chance of winning the gold than any of the other ladies. She has the strongest mind and the strongest motivation to win it (last chance). If anyone can handle pressure, it's her. She did handle it in 1998. IMO Irina will be happy with or without the gold. I think Sasha really wants it and so does Michelle. That could be the deciding factor. It may come down to Sasha vs. Michelle, like at the US nationals. Out of these two, Michelle handles pressure better.

Vash

I totally disagree with everything about your analysis. Michelle has a better chance of winning the gold than any of the other ladies? That is far from the truth. Meissner a possable gold winner and the Japanese ladies are not? There is no logic in that at all, sorry. The judges prefer Sasha over Irina all things being equal? That is definitely not true. Sasha does not need two clean programs to win? This is a lady who has never won a major event gold without doing two clean programs so there is no logic in that. Irina will be happy with or without gold? That is far from the truth as well. Do you even watch figure skating. I found your analysis funny, good humour. Please do another one soon, I like the comic relief you can provide.