Now that it's official, can Michelle win the OGM?

[mzheng]

As for Kwan having the "same" programs - Tarasova created both programs this year. From what I saw at Marshalls, her Totentanz looked completely different to her prior short programs. It remains to be seen whether she'll water them down again (I hope not), but I suspect she will be monitored closely by the USFSA to make sure the content is there and her levels will be high enough. I'm picturing TT throwing a Russian fit if Michelle DARES to dilute her choreography!

lol, She already deluted the SP on fly at Marshalls.

Apart from that, what else is Kwan expected to do so as not to skate the "same" program?

Well, at least her musics are different from the years before.

 

[millie]

I expect Irina to have the best chances of winning the OGM, but to say Sasha or Michelle won't do a triple-triple is dead wrong. They may well try a triple-triple knowing that they will have to have it to beat Irina. Nothing should be taken for granted during an Olympic competition.

You guys are leaving Rochette out of the mix. She is the silent dark horse for the Olympics. She's got a 3-3-2 planned, so where does that fit into your scheme of things. She's going to sneak in and take it all.:chorus: :chorus: :chorus: :chorus:
Let the games begin.

 

[slutskayafan21]

I'll tell you what ... if either Sasha or Michelle skate 2 perfect programs and match up level-wise with jump content and the other elements, and then lose to a flawed Irina on the PCS ... you just watch the fireworks. Anyone who thinks the usfsa will sit back quietly is sadly mistaken.

Sorry but the USFSA is a small fish when we go overseas to Europe. If the Olympics were in SLC maybe, but they are not.

 

[R.D.]

Irina needs to go out there and skate her program, no matter what the other skaters do or don't do.

Yes! And I have this funny feeling that skate order is going to play a huge role in determing who's going to bring it to the table and who will falter. There are advantages and disadvantages to being in both positions (first and last). If you're first, you can lay it out and set the bar high; however, the judges may score you somewhat conservatively, especially if there are other top skaters coming up. If you're last, you know exactly what you need to do to win; however, nerves can take their toll as you wait and wait through others' performances and bite your nails.

If Irina is first, I think she'll do really well. However, if she's last, AND somebody else lays it down, she'll really feel the pressure. You can also substitute Sasha's or Shizuka's name in for Irina's if you want.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Maybe, but that's "skating not to lose." I think Irina learned her lesson about that strategy in 2002. She knew Michelle had messed up, so all she had to do was skate conservatively and try not to fall down. Well, she didn't fall down, quite, but she let Sarah Hughes (of all people!) skate away with her medal.

Irina needs to go out there and skate her program, no matter what the other skaters do or don't do.

MM

I dont think there was anything wrong with her strategy in 2002. She knew she did not need a triple-triple to win after Michelle's performance and she didnt really. If she skated with more speed, and completed her elements cleanly like she did in the 2002 Worlds long program, she would have won gold over Sarah even with no 3/3 attempts and nobody, correct that only Americans, would have complained.

 

[mzheng]

I could not see Kwan or Cohen doing a triple-triple in the long or anything that would blow Irina away right away right now, which is the only way one would beat her.
.

Maybe not right away right now. But in 19 days? Still about 3 weeks away, a lot could happen....but seems camp Irina is preparing....and so are the other camps.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Yes! And I have this funny feeling that skate order is going to play a huge role in determing who's going to bring it to the table and who will falter. There are advantages and disadvantages to being in both positions (first and last). If you're first, you can lay it out and set the bar high; however, the judges may score you somewhat conservatively, especially if there are other top skaters coming up. If you're last, you know exactly what you need to do to win; however, nerves can take their toll as you wait and wait through others' performances and bite your nails.

If Irina is first, I think she'll do really well. However, if she's last, AND somebody else lays it down, she'll really feel the pressure. You can also substitute Sasha's or Shizuka's name in for Irina's if you want.

I agree. Actually I dont think skating early would affect the marks of Irina or Sasha much, but for the others it probably would. Those two will be the ones highest in judges eyes going into Turin anyway so skate order wont matter much for them in judges scores. Pyschologicaly skating later could hurt a skater who cant deal with certain skaters skating extremely well though.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Maybe not right away right now. But in 19 days?

What would change in 19 days? I am not saying that based on injuries, since Cohen is not injured right now and Kwan is supposably healthy now as well. If I could not see a triple-triple now from one of them, I wouldnt see it in 19 days either, and would be equaly as surprised then if one does one, as I would be now to see it.

 

[R.D.]

I agree. Actually I dont think skating early would affect the marks of Irina or Sasha much, but for the others it probably would. Those two will be the ones highest in judges eyes going into Turin anyway so skate order wont matter much for them in judges scores. Pyschologicaly skating later could hurt a skater who cant deal with certain skaters skating extremely well though.

I think you have a point, actually. Irina and Sasha will probably get similar scores no matter when they skate.

Now that I think about it, I wonder if (the scoring) is going to be as much of a factor now that we have Cop. I mean, skaters should get the same Levels and the same Points for their routine no matter what order they skate in...or not?

 

[slutskayafan21]

I think you have a point, actually. Irina and Sasha will probably get similar scores no matter when they skate.

Now that I think about it, I wonder if (the scoring) is going to be as much of a factor now that we have Cop. I mean, skaters should get the same Levels and the same Points for their routine no matter what order they skate in...or not?

It is more of a factor on PCS than TES. In TES scores atleast the judges have to award levels according to the rules(although some of the rules for what defines things like spin levels and lift levels is ridiculous, but that is another topic)
but even there the GOE can be a bit skewed to the skaters they might have preference towards.

 

[R.D.]

I agree. the PCS seems to be more on the "subjective side" of things, while there are written rules on how to score the TES. Of course, if there really IS a fix in, the numbers can be manipulated so much to give one skater an advantage. Remember, even 0.2 can be the difference between Silver and Gold.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I dont think there was anything wrong with her strategy in 2002. She knew she did not need a triple-triple to win after Michelle's performance and she didnt really. If she skated with more speed, and completed her elements cleanly like she did in the 2002 Worlds long program, she would have won gold over Sarah even with no 3/3 attempts and nobody, correct that only Americans, would have complained.

one forgets that Sasha was the intended teenybopper in 2002 a la Tara in 98. Sarah skated first and marks were held down to accommodate the three favorites. Sasha had a bad fall; Michelle had a dumb fall; Irina somehow collapsed. Sarah's under marking won!

And that's the way it was in Salt Lake City in 2002 by eyewitnesses.

Joe

 

[slutskayafan21]

I agree. the PCS seems to be more on the "subjective side" of things, while there are written rules on how to score the TES. Of course, if there really IS a fix in, the numbers can be manipulated so much to give one skater an advantage. Remember, even 0.2 can be the difference between Silver and Gold.

Yeah the PCS give the judges alot of liberty, just the way they like it. The PCS show alot more disparity than the TES scores when the top skaters skate reasonably clean, whereas under the old system the presentation scores did not show any more, if even as much, disparity as the technical score.

 

[slutskayafan21]

one forgets that Sasha was the intended upstart in 2002 a la Tara in 98. Sarah skated first and marks were held down to accommodate the three favorites. Sasha had a bad fall; Michelle had a dumb fall; Irina somehow collapsed. Sarah's under marking won!

And that's the way it was in Salt Lake City in 2002 by eyewitnesses.

Joe

Actually they gave Hughes the scores she got because there were 3 skaters left who were good enough to have a chance to beat her, thus they could not box somebody in by giving say 5.8, 5.9 or 5.9, 5.8 for her performance. Thus 5.8, 5.8 was as high a bar as reasonable. What if they had given 5.8, 5.9, then Sasha skated clean, do I put her ahead or not, I still have Michelle and Irina left; then after that decision is made, what if Michelle skates an inspired performance, oh god I have to give 5.9, 5.9 now or did I already give that to Sasha and have to give a 6.0, oh and Irina is about to skate to, then maybe Irina has a great skate too, oh my god I am really screwed thinks the judge, oh wait I gave 5.8, 5.8 in case this happened, I am fine. :yes:

 

[mzheng]

What would change in 19 days? I am not saying that based on injuries, since Cohen is not injured right now and Kwan is supposably healthy now as well. If I could not see a triple-triple now from one of them, I wouldnt see it in 19 days either, and would be equaly as surprised then if one does one, as I would be now to see it.

The logical question should be do you see them now? Don't ou think?

 

[slutskayafan21]

The logical question should be do you see them now?

I dont have to, I have seen enough of them the last 4 years to see no triple-triple, especialy coming off an injury for Kwan. Come back to me if I am wrong, but I wont hold my breath.

 

[mzheng]

I dont have to, I have seen enough of them the last 4 years to see no triple-triple, especialy coming off an injury for Kwan. Come back to me if I am wrong, but I wont hold my breath.

I'm not going to come back to you on this. But if Kwan medal I might come back to you.....but I've alreay seen your tone changed for last several days.

 

[slutskayafan21]

I'm not going to come back to you on this. But if Kwan medal I might come back to you.....but I've alreay seen your tone changed for last several days.

How has my tone changed?

 

[millie]

In all this hullabalu about what the media will say about Kwan, I don't think Kwan will give a fiddler's stick about what they will say. Whatever results she gets from the Olympics, she still walks away with millions in her purse and we still have to go to work each day for a few meager dollars and we poor fans and non-fans will continue to try to continue to keep her dreams alive.

 

[tarotx]

one forgets that Sasha was the intended teenybopper in 2002 a la Tara in 98. Sarah skated first and marks were held down to accommodate the three favorites. Sasha had a bad fall; Michelle had a dumb fall; Irina somehow collapsed. Sarah's under marking won!

And that's the way it was in Salt Lake City in 2002 by eyewitnesses.

Joe

In 2002 Sasha had never been to worlds, Sarah was the defending worlds broze medalist. I don't know if either were thought of at the level of the then 1997 defending world champion.

Sasha didn't really have a bad fall. It was actually one of her nicer ones. There was no splat. She just sat down the 3-toe loop. After a shaking 3flutz she should have went for the double toe as the back end of her combination.