Off-Season Debate, Question 1: Can Kimmie Keep Up The Momentum?

[R.D.]

Actually I would have had Arakawa as a top three favorite, not Kostner. But Slutskaya was the overwhelming favorite and the shocker there was that not only did Arakawa beat her, Cohen placed above her as well.

But what does all this have to do with Kimmie keeping up the momentum for next year?

 

[attyfan]

... But what does all this have to do with Kimmie keeping up the momentum for next year?

The fact that she is now more heavily favored might make it difficult, if not impossible, to keep it up season after season. Shiz was not on the list of overwhelming favorites heading into '06, in part, because a rough '04/'05 season made people think that she "hadn't kept up the momentum" since Dortmund

 

[R.D.]

True. And it can even be argued that she peaked in Dortmund and only did what she had to at the Olys to win it. She was good, but (IMO) she wasn't great. Her 2004 Worlds FS was much better I think.

To relate that to Kimmie, maybe next year might be rough for her, but if she is a true champion she'll rise to the occasion again and capture the US title, maybe even another world title and be a top contender for gold in '10

What I don't want for her is for her to be another Sokolova- struggle after winning/placing big- but hey, even Sokolova was able to pull up eventually. I think we haven't seen the last of Kimmie yet.

 

[demarinis5]

IMO Kimmie will have her work cut out for her next year if she competes internationally. She will be competing with many other talented up and coming young ladies that were not at Worlds or the Olympics. These ladies can match or surpass Kimmie technically and with artistry. Kimmie is a tough competitor and talented, she will be in the thick of things this coming season and I for one can't wait. It should be exciting for figure skating fans.

I know this is a Kimmie thread but my prediction for breakout star next
season is the Korean skater Yuna Kim, Wow!!

 

[leon]

A major factor, if not the most important factor after skating skills, is fitness, health and freedom from injuries. Kimmie scores very high on that scale. I've never heard of her missing a competition or doing poorly because of an injury. A great trainer and her dad being a podiatrist certainly helps. She's over 16 1/2 and while appearing girlish, I do hope puberty is behind her. I agree YuNa Kim is a tremendous talent but seems fragile. If she stays healthy she and Kimmie and Mao Asada will all push each other for great skating. Asada also seems healthy and has been free of injury but at 15 seems to still be growing.

The effect of Kimmie winning the World Championship and being the reigning champion is hard to quantify. Some see it as a burden packed with pressure, I see it as a tremendous boost in confidence and self esteem.

I'm hearing she will face Mao soon in Japan and hopefully all three: the World Champ, Junior World Champ and Grand Prix Champion will get a chance to face off early in the fall grand prix series. If the skating gods permit them to stay healthy, I think these are the stars for the next half decade and perhaps beyond.

And personally, I think Kimmie will do just fine against both of them.

 

[R.D.]

I'm hearing she will face Mao soon in Japan

in what competition, pray tell?

 

[flowjo35]

in what competition, pray tell?

Kimmie was invited to the Japan Open. I am not sure when this takes place. I read on another board the following skaters from North America were also invited, J. Rochette, Jeff Buttle, E. Sandu.

 

[Pau-goodle76]

It's like May 14th or something like that. Hmmmm, for next season of course there will be pressure for Kimmie ( a different type of pressure she has yet to face) and there's not much telling about how things will go next season.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

But what does all this have to do with Kimmie keeping up the momentum for next year?

A momentum is when someone is hot; winning competitions after competitions. There is momentum there. When the Mets win three in a row (hardly ever) then there is a momentum to keep it going. A single win is not a momentum. I'm surprised that you as an avid sportsfan would think one win was a momentum.

Kimmie didn't even win Juniors. She placed 2nd at Nats, and 6th in the Olys. There was no momentum going for her leading up to the Worlds and she was pooh poohed for worlds as a winner before the event. It was a one-time thing not a series of spectacular wins to keep it going. She is not Plushenko. He had momentum.

However, if she wins a few GPs and Nats, maybe there is momentum for her. I hope so.

Joe

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Actually I would have had Arakawa as a top three favorite, not Kostner. But Slutskaya was the overwhelming favorite and the shocker there was that not only did Arakawa beat her, Cohen placed above her as well.

that's kind of like after the fact.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I'm hearing she will face Mao soon in Japan and hopefully all three: the World Champ, Junior World Champ and Grand Prix Champion will get a chance to face off early in the fall grand prix series. If the skating gods permit them to stay healthy, I think these are the stars for the next half decade and perhaps beyond.

And personally, I think Kimmie will do just fine against both of them.

That competition seems to be more than a cheesefest. It will be more interesting than Marshlls, imo. I just think the new era in Ladies has begun.

But will the USFS allow Kimmie to go? Hopefully. It's all that experience leading up to 2010!!

Joe

 

[R.D.]

A momentum is when someone is hot; winning competitions after competitions. There is momentum there. When the Mets win three in a row (hardly ever) then there is a momentum to keep it going. A single win is not a momentum. I'm surprised that you as an avid sportsfan would think one win was a momentum.

You're right, and maybe I should have said "can she get a momentum going?" or "keep up the improvement". But yes, you're right- one win isn't momentum.

ETA: Kimmie's finally made it big- she has a thread about her that's almost 6 pages!

 

[bethissoawesome]

She had the performance of her life in Calgary (in case you didn't know ) But do you think she can keep it up?

Probably not... as far as we know, she has lost her 3a... so it could be possible that her jumping ability is going downhill, and so far, she doesn't have the presentation of someone like Sasha to make up for lack of jumps. (is it just me or do her spins seem very weak?)

Does she really have to worry about the Japanese and other Asians supposedly making a threat?
YES YES YES. I don't think she will stand a chance against Yu-Na Kim. Yu-Na has presentation that is only getting better and she also has incredible jumping ability as well.

Can she win the US title next year?

Maybe... if Sasha stays in, she could be threat. I also think Katy Taylor could be a potential title taker. I think she will definitely be on the podium though.

Can she successfully defend her World Championship in 07?

I highly doubt it. I think she will be in the top 5 or maybe the podium.

Is she going to be a one-hit wonder?

Don't kill me for sounding so negative... but I think she will be a one-hit wonder for gold at Worlds. I think she will consistently stay towards the top of the ranks, but not be at the top.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Beth - Nothing wrong with your analyses of Kimmie. I agree in part but not all. I think we all should start looking for improvements. While she's a bit on the tall size, she is only 18 and has not reached that 'over 20' where increasing jump levels is just about finished. Lady skaters today are being conservative about their 3x3s and in Kimmie's case the 3A. I'm sure she is still working on the 3A to counteract Mao and Yu-Na neither of whom have superior presentation.

As for the other American gals, I think Katy lacks the jump elements that Kimmie has but Katy does have better presentation, imo. Bebe and Emily have to learn to control their speed while jumping. Alissa has the best presentation but is in serious need of a jumping coach.

As for the two American dowagers: Who knows? what their plans are and I just don't think it will be any different than what we have seen thus far. A healthy Kwan will get her 3r back, and Sasha will not get the 4q. Maybe they should disappear. Just a thought - not promoting that.

Bottom Line on Kimmie (and everyone else) is to wait and see.

Joe

 

[leon]

in what competition, pray tell?

Here is a link: Asada to take part in regional meet in May

"This will be my first meet since becoming a high school student. I'd like to beat Meissner since we are so close in age," said the 15-year-old Asada.

 

[R.D.]

Here is a link: Asada to take part in regional meet in May

Thanks. And I like Asada's attitude

P.S. will this be televised?

 

[Mathman]

So it will be a team event. I wonder what the full roster for the U.S. and European teams will be.

Guess who the winner of the 1997 Japan Open was? Michelle Kwan. A new era indeed!

MM

 

[attyfan]

...

Can she win the US title next year?

Maybe... if Sasha stays in, she could be threat. I also think Katy Taylor could be a potential title taker. I think she will definitely be on the podium though. ...

IMO, Nats will be the easiest to predict. If the hype is Kimmie v. ___ (Sasha (should she stay in; Michelle if she competes), Katy, Alissa, Emily, etc -- pick one), then both will lose, and some other skater will win. No matter who is there, whoever Peggy Fleming predicts to win -- probably won't.

 

[leon]

P.S. will this be televised?

I'm sure in Japan. I think there is a problem with Pro-Ams in the USA in recent times. NBC shows pros(except for the Olympics) and the Disney family of stations show USFSA sanctioned events. Olympic eligible skaters are at the mercy of USFSA sanctioning rules and whims. As the pie gets smaller the fights heat up rather than joining together to try to make a bigger pie. hwell:

eddited to add: CBC and/or Comcast might get rights to telelvise in their respective markets

 

[chuckm]

Mao struggled at Junior Worlds and seemed to have trouble with her 3A. In the FS, she singled one attempt and doubled the other. She also singled her lutz and could add only a single loop to her second 3F.

Mao does only four jumps: Axel, Loop, Flip and Lutz. For some reason, she doesn't do the salchow or the toe loop at all. If she is starting to have problems with her 3A or any of her other triples, she is in trouble, competitively.

Some have said she didn't want to do JW and didn't care whether she won or not, so that's why she performed poorly. I am not buying that. If she is a true champion, she wants to win every event she enters.

Could she be starting to feel the effects of the puberty bug? According to reports, Mao is 5'3" and during the GP, weighed all of 82 lbs. Common sense says at her age, she will not continue much longer at such a low weight, and she might begin to experience trouble with her jumps as her weight redistributes itself.

I think it is ridiculous to start worrying now if Kimmie can sustain her skating over the next few years. There is no reason to say she can't compete against Mao and Kim because they are so much better than she is, when we haven't seen the three of them compete together as Seniors as yet. Nothing is written in stone at this point. We saw Mao beat senior skaters when she had nothing to lose, with no championship to protect, but we saw her lose her JW title with a disastrous FS performance.