OGM - Who's within reach of it?

[millyskate]

men: for the title plushenko, lambiel, joubert, . Longer shots:weir, sandhu, shots at medals: buttle, lindemann, lizacek, griasev, Li

Ladies: shot at the title: Slutskaya, Kostner, Kwan, Cohen, Arakawa
at a medal: suguri, ando, possibly rochette

Pairs: for gold: shen and zhao, TTand MM
medals: all chinese and russians, plus sawchenko and skolkowy

dance: navka and kostomarov unfortunately
medals: Delschoes, Denkova and Staviski, Grushons

 

[Mathman]

Mathman, Are you saying the judges treat all the skaters the same? Boy you could have fooled me. I find myself scratching my head just wondering how did that skater get those marks? What was I looking at? I dont know so many dont see it that way. If the judges treat all skaters the same then we can all be quite cause theres something wrong with us. Good grief can you believe I found myself mistrusting those judges. Bad Girl.

Cianni, in a weird sort of Speedy-knows-best way, I think there is a certain consistency in how the skaters are treated. I think Navka and Kostomorov will be treated in Torino exactly the way Anassina and Peiserat were treated in Salt lake City, for instance. They will be handed the gold medal no matter what their performance is like. This shows a certain consistency in ice dancing judging. The way to win an Olympic gold medal is to play along, get the supprt of the most powerful federations, wait until the people ahead of you retire, then it's your turn. I think that everyone in the game knows this and does not expect anything different.

Similarly, to me it is clear that in singles skating it is a big help to have a big reputation and to stay on the good side of the ISU power structure. So...if you want a gold medal, that's what you have to do. I am not saying that's a good thing, it's just reality. I figure Michelle lost about 1.0 off her PCS at worlds for not doing the Grand Prix, for instance.

Although, if that is really the case it is hard to explain how Sarah Hughes managed to sneak in there. She merely had the best skate of the night. Under normal circumstances, I don't think that would have been enough. Maybe the Michelle forces got the upper hand over the Irina forces, then when Michelle faltered they still had the clout to give it to Sarah.

Mathman

 

[R.D.]

Maybe the Michelle forces got the upper hand over the Irina forces, then when Michelle faltered they still had the clout to give it to Sarah.

I don't know about that. Irina still had first place ordinals in the free (and I don't know how that is possible, but...). I think this one was Irina's in the bag until Sarah gave a performance so good they had no choice but to give it to her. Otherwise Irina would be Olympic Champion right now, no matter how she did.

(Personal comment: Thank goodness for Sarah!)

 

[Mathman]

I don't know about that. Irina still had first place ordinals in the free (and I don't know how that is possible, but...)

Well, it was possible because the Irina side was able to line up four votes. To those four judges it didn't matter how well Sarah skated.

But there were five on the other side, who would have voted for Michelle if they could have. (4...5...they don't call me Mathman for nothing, LOL.)

One of the anti-Irina judges did all he could, putting Irina fourth behind Sarah, Michelle and Sasha.

MM

 

[R.D.]

Well, it was possible because the Irina side was able to line up four votes. To those four judges it didn't matter how well Sarah skated.

Exactly...to me that just screams that the competition was fixed in this discipline as well. If it weren't for the pairs mess, or if it were in a different country (say Russia) Irina would have won this no matter what.

I just hope the '06 Games aren't like this. Too good to be true, of course.

One of the anti-Irina judges did all he could, putting Irina fourth behind Sarah, Michelle and Sasha.

It will always be subjective, so that's fine I guess. But it's blatant favoritism that is the problem. A CLEARLY outskates B and B ends up winning. If it's a close call, it's fine if it goes either way.

I agree that Irina should (have been) behind Sarah, but not MK or Cohen. They both fell.

 

[slutskayafan21]

I dont agree the competition in SLC was fixed in Irina's favor. First of all, in the short program both Michelle and Irina skated cleanly and Michelle came out on top, which is unusual during their rivalry in 2002, and even was controversial to "some"(I know not everybody saw it that way, which is why I said some). If the competition was fixed in Irina's favor how on earth could Michelle have won the short with both skating cleanly, with Irina usually winning the short between them? That alone throws that theory out of the window for me.

Secondly in the long, both Sasha and Michelle had votes ahead of Sarah as well. So to single out Irina is totally unfair. Obviously the fact all three had some judges rate them over Sarah, shows some of the judges have a hard time seeing past the obvious flaws in Sarah's jump technique, flutzes, cheats, etc....thought that not doing a second triple lutz reduced some of her D.D edge, and the fact outside of that she did triple-triple and 7 triples, some areas of her skating are less spectacular than Kwan, Cohen, or Slutskaya. I am not saying Sarah did not deserve to win the long program, she did, and perhaps the overall gold(although some could question a variety of the short program placings including Sarah's). However 4 judges putting Irina over Sarah does not seem to indicate it was fixed in Irina's favor or obvious bias to Irina only.

 

[cianni]

Ogm

Mathman ,I agree with some of your points. I noticed we arnt saying the skaters deservd to win so we are left with hand picked winners. This time my concern is the fact that fans and media are onto the reality you pointed out and it wont be let go. If a skater blows the roof off the arena and a flawed favorite wins the roof will blow off skating and we all lose. I agree that Irina was slated for that OGM and without the scandel she would be . The skating she put out was awful and she did not come near deserving the medal. The judges were forced to give it to Sarah and they let us know Irina was cheated. Thats the problem I have. Let the skaters play along but its still cheating and COP is set up to cover that part up. I dont want skating to get chacked because causal fans as well as the fans on the boards get so disgusted they also tune out.

 

[slutskayafan21]

Yes Irina's recent Worlds win I am sure infuriated the mass population of skating fans. LOL! Naw, only the cluster of Kwan fanatics, which the skating world can live with upsetting I think.

 

[R.D.]

I am not saying Sarah did not deserve to win the long program, she did, and perhaps the overall gold(although some could question a variety of the short program placings including Sarah's). However 4 judges putting Irina over Sarah does not seem to indicate it was fixed in Irina's favor or obvious bias to Irina only.

I see where you are coming from, but remember this was judged under the 6.0 system. Not Cop where other areas of the skating (besides jumps) get rewarded. Under Cop the result MAY have been different (which IMO is one of its problems).

You just said that Sarah deserved to win the long program. I personally cannot see HOW all nine judges weren't in total agreement that Sarah won the long. Irina didn't have the fire or determination that SH had that night, PLUS she made that mistake on the jump. If she had fallen I would even put her behind MK. The 2nd and 3rd place positions might be up for grabs but SH clearly had 1st place. Why she didn't get 1's across the board (for the FREE) is just beyond me IMO. That was the main problem with that competition. However, all that said, IMO the positions were correct (SH deserved gold, IS deserved silver, MK deserved bronze).

Your mileage may vary.

Yes Irina's recent Worlds win I am sure infuriated the mass population of skating fans.

Well, I can't say I'm personally thrilled that Irina won, but hey, she DID deserve it. And that's a very good thing for this new system because the right person won.

 

[slutskayafan21]

My point is that Michelle and Sasha also got 1st place votes, so singling out Irina, and the judges supposably being manipulating in Irina's favor is not the correct view IMO. I did not agree with others getting 1st place votes, but at the same time they had to leave room after Sarah skated since there were 3 women who could beat her even if they skated their best, so it is hard to have unaminous 1st places with marks that cant go higher than 5.8, 5.8, some went a bit lower, understandably to give themselves potential room.

 

[Mathman]

My point is that Michelle and Sasha also got 1st place votes, so singling out Irina, and the judges supposably being manipulating in Irina's favor is not the correct view IMO. I did not agree with others getting 1st place votes, but at the same time they had to leave room after Sarah skated since there were 3 women who could beat her even if they skated their best, so it is hard to have unaminous 1st places with marks that cant go higher than 5.8, 5.8, some went a bit lower, understandably to give themselves potential room.

??? Sarah got 5 first place ordinals and Irina got 4. Neither Michelle nor Sasha got any.

It is not hard at all to have unanimous first place votes. Each judge ranks the same skater first. This is no problem no matter how much they hold back on the marks of the earlier skaters. No experienced judge ever puts himself in a position where it is impossible to insert a skater into the correct order.

However, I do not believe that the contest was fixed in favor of Irina. If it were, she would have won, QED, and we wouldn't be having this discussion. Unless you think there was a French judge in there somewhere who doublecrossed her co-conspirators at the last minute.

What I think happened is this. Because of Irina's superior skating skills, her power and precision, many people (including some of the judges) felt that 75% of Irina Slutskaya is still better than 110% of Sarah Hughes. Irina skated about 75% of her potential, while Sarah skated beyond anything anyone expected of her. You pay your money and you take your choice.

Mathman

 

[slutskayafan21]

The point is not the 1st place ordinals, the point is that Michelle and Sasha also had judges putting them ahead of Sarah. I dont see anybody pointing that out though, only some conspiracy theory in Irina's favor. It is obvious some of the judges just dont care for Sarah's skating, so much so that flawed performances from other contenders are better than the skate of her life. After all 3 of those same 4 judges also had Michelle ahead, 2 of those 4 Cohen. Kwan did not skate any better than Irina, and Sasha was probably worse than both.

 

[Mathman]

The point is not the 1st place ordinals, the point is that Michelle and Sasha also had judges putting them ahead of Sarah. I dont see anybody pointing that out though, only some conspiracy theory in Irina's favor. It is obvious some of the judges just dont care for Sarah's skating, so much so that flawed performances from other contenders are better than the skate of her life. After all 3 of those same 4 judges also had Michelle ahead, 2 of those 4 Cohen. Kwan did not skate any better than Irina, and Sasha was probably worse than both.

IIRC, it was the same four "Irina judges" who put Irina first, then Michelle or Sasha ahead of poor Sarah. So I think the "conspiracy theory" goes something like this:

Four of the judges (they tried to get more but the forces of lightness won out) -- four of the judges were hell-bent on cheating in favor of Irina. So they all put Irina first and buried Sarah as deep as possible, realizing that Michelle and Sasha had screwed up so badly they were out of it anyway.

Meanwhile the good guys saw how wonderful Sarah had skated, and put her first as was only right.

Something like that, LOL.

Mathman

PS. I don't think us Kwan fans were mad about Irina winning worlds. She obviously skated rings around everybody else.

Of course we can still get in a little wuzrobbin' about Carolina beating our gal, LOL.

 

[slutskayafan21]

IIRC, it was the same four "Irina judges" who put Irina first, then Michelle or Sasha ahead of poor Sarah. So I think the "conspiracy theory" goes something like this:

Four of the judges (they tried to get more but the forces of lightness won out) -- four of the judges were hell-bent on cheating in favor of Irina. So they all put Irina first and buried Sarah as deep as possible, realizing that Michelle and Sasha had screwed up so badly they were out of it anyway.

Meanwhile the good guys saw how wonderful Sarah had skated, and put her first as was only right.

Something like that, LOL.

Mathman

PS. I don't think us Kwan fans were mad about Irina winning worlds. She obviously skated rings around everybody else.

Of course we can still get in a little wuzrobbin' about Carolina beating our gal, LOL.

Ok now I get it. Thanks for explaining.

 

[euterpe]

The point is not the 1st place ordinals, the point is that Michelle and Sasha also had judges putting them ahead of Sarah. I dont see anybody pointing that out though, only some conspiracy theory in Irina's favor. It is obvious some of the judges just dont care for Sarah's skating, so much so that flawed performances from other contenders are better than the skate of her life. After all 3 of those same 4 judges also had Michelle ahead, 2 of those 4 Cohen. Kwan did not skate any better than Irina, and Sasha was probably worse than both.

Here were the judges' actual placements:

[SIZE=-1]GER RUS SVK DEN ITA BLR FIN CAN USA
5.7 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.8 HUGHES
5.7 5.7 5.8 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8
1 4 3 4 1 2 1 1 1
5.7 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.8 SLUTSKAYA
5.6 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.7
3 1 1 1 4 1 2 3 2
5.6 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.6 KWAN
5.7 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8
2 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 3
5.5 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 COHEN
5.5 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7
5 2 4 3 3 4 4 4 4[/SIZE]

Only one judge gave Sasha a 2nd place ordinal, and that was the RUSSIAN judge, Tatiana Danilenko, who had been suspended some years ago for blatantly unfair judging. Danilenko placed Irina first, Sasha second, Kwan third and Sarah fourth, obviously to keep Sarah buried as deeply as possible, while consigning Kwan lower than Sasha who wasn't going to medal.

Sasha got a 3rd place ordinal from the DANISH judge, who also placed Irina 1st and Sarah 4th.

The Italian judge clearly did not like Irina's skating, because he placed her 4th, below Sarah, Michelle and Sasha--but he was the ONLY judge who placed Sasha ahead of Irina.

Incidentally, the US judge placed Sarah first and Irina 2nd, ahead of Kwan.

 

[cianni]

Ogm

WOW How did this thread get turned around and now its SLC which has nothing to do with the COP system and how its used. SLC is a non issue today its onto more of the same but under a new name. Now we have the old 6.0 system replaced with the same COP system but hidden judges and their marks. Point being nothing has changed. Its onto OLYs 2006.

 

[slutskayafan21]

At the Worlds there was no blatant controversy as far as the winners. Perhaps Navka/Kostomarov were outskated by Belbin/Agosto and Delobel/
Schoenfeldner in the free dance, and that is debatable, but they were the consensus winners overall it seems. Irina was not a controversial winner. Lambiel was not a controversial winner. Totmianina/Marinin clearly won the pairs.
I think the new system worked very well at Worlds, there was SLC type scandals.

 

[Mathman]

I think the "controversy," if you want to call it that, was not about who won and who lost, but rather an overall disappointment that the new judging system did not really mark the beginning of a sea change in attitude toward the whole topic of fairer judging.

I for one do not see any guarentees in place that will discourage toe-tapping, French judging, politicking, bloc voting, protocol judging, etc., under the new system any more than the old. Indeed, the only real change is the secret judging that makes it just as easy to cheat and harder to get caught.

Mathman

 

[slutskayafan21]

Do you really think Speedy would give up his privilege to orchestrate results, or apiece the more powerful power-to-bes below him that might want to build plans for various events. Naw, of course not, so of course this system has major holes, and major risk of corruption, manipulation, and lack of accountability. It can be no other way as long as he is ISU president.