Olys: Will USA medal at all?

[Mathman]

Was Evgeni held up in the SP in SLC?

I think the theory goes that Plushenko was given fourth place despite a bad performance because there was always the slight possibility that Yagudin would totally bomb in the long, and then they would not have anyone to give the gold medal to.

But I think it is more like, the great skaters are so much better than everyone else in their basic skating skills, that even when they miss a jump or two, they are still ahead of the pack.

About politicking at the lower levels, though, I am sure that Soogar is right. One of the jobs of a coach is to hobnob with the judges and officials to get their skater noticed. It's not so much cheating as just, well, here is a rink full of 100 little kids all of about the same ability. So if you have a well-known coach, that coach can spread the word, hey, guys, take a look at this one.

Mathman

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I think the theory goes that Plushenko was given fourth place despite a bad performance because there was always the slight possibility that Yagudin would totally bomb in the long, and then they would not have anyone to give the gold medal to.

But I think it is more like, the great skaters are so much better than everyone else in their basic skating skills, that even when they miss a jump or two, they are still ahead of the pack.

I think if you reread what you wrote, you are saying that figure skating results are made by arrangements. It was to be a showdown between the two Russians. No one else mattered. So the poor skate of one Russian was held up to keep the fire in the competition. Just how was this arranged? I don't see this as 'not cheating'.

On the other hand if great skaters (whoever they are and whoever deemed them as such)are so much better in their basic skills that any errors in their program should be overlooked in the competition. Then what is competition?
Why have a competition? Just let the great skaters do their thing and let them place by previous arrangements.

But for skating fans, every qualified skater can do an exhibition and that will satisfy most fans.

Joe

 

[Mathman]

Joe, in my first paragraph I related a "theory" (i.e., rumor) that had floated around.

What I believe is the second paragraph of what you quoted. I believe that if Plushenko skates with speed, fire, panache, great edges, nice footwork, commanding presence, excellent ice coverage, fast well-centered spins -- but falls on his quad-triple attempt -- and another skater manages to stand up but is otherwise only so-so -- I think Plushenko won the competition fair and square.

As for collusion and pre-arranged judging, there are always charges and counter charges, but judges rarely get caught. So who knows what the truth is?

Mathman

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

MM - I am sure you can think of others in your description of Evgeni although he doesn't have great spins. I can certainly think of one american lady you would say just about the same thing, and from me you will get a big list of skaters who fit that bill. In all these cases, I am an old sportsfan who believes in the best that night It appears to me that the definition of a competition in figure skating is not what one worked for all year, but just how much fame one has.

It's just not like that in any other sport.

Joe

 

[emma]

It seems like we're back to how to define the best...and I mean the best in any particular competition...not in reputation, not in past competitions...

I can imagine a scenario where skater "a" falls and skater "b" does not fall, but skater a skates great all around and skater b does not. Who wins....I honestly don't know without reference to real not imaginary compeitions (so, for example, I was a bit surprised by Plushy's placement after the short in 2002, but not totally utterly surprised, and i didn't feel particularly upset about it, except for him). Sometimes I agree with the judges decisions in these cases, sometimes I do not...most often i'm not sure and can be persuaded either way. And of course, I'm not a judge.

Certainly, NJS helps us count points on the technical side so we can debate who was better overall technically; but NJS has areas within the tech that many of us have debated (like points for intended but not completed jumps, discussed on this or some other thread right now) that might keep us from consensus on the tech. But, the tech can be counted...the 'presentation' is another can or worms that none of us seem particularly satisfied with at the moment. And...i'm just repeating myself from other threads at this point...so that's all.

 

[SkateFan4Life]

In all honesty, I believe there's a distinct possibility that the American figure skaters will not win any medals at Torino.

The men, certainly, aren't guaranteed a medal, despite the fact that Lysacek won a surprise bronze at this year's Worlds, Goebel won a bronze at Salt Lake City, and Weir has the potential to medal. The field is just incredibly deep with talented men - the Russians, Germans, and others.

As for the women, I expect to see either Cohen or Kwan - or perhaps both - win medals, but I do not expect either of them to win the gold medal. Irina Slutskaya is the favorite, not just because she's the defending World champion, but the judges love her. She skated a sub-par, slopped long program at SLC and nearly won the gold medal Cohen might take herself out of medal contention with mistakes, and Kwan might not have the technical content to challenge for a medal. If the US is shut out of the medals, it will be the first time an American woman has not appeared on the Olympic podium since 1964, and that was because the US team was rebuilding itself after the tragic plane crash in 1961 that took the lives of the entire US skating team.

As for ice dance, if Belbin doesn't get her dual US/Canadian citizenship in time so that she and Agosto can compete at Torino - and that seems likely - there won't be a medal won by Americans. They are the only team that is of medal experience and quality.

As for the pairs - please. I'm sorry, but the US pairs program is really going through a dry period in terms of talent and ability to win medals.

So.....the Stars and Stripes might not be raised at any of the figure skating medal ceremonies. Hopefully, this will not be the case, but it's a distinct possibility.

All of the above is IMHO, of course.

 

[gkelly]

I think what a lot of people forget in looking at Plushenko's placement in the short at SLC was that yes, he fell, and he took a 0.4 deduction, but the skaters most often cited as having deserved to beat him, Abt and Stojko, ALSO had deductions that amounted to at least 0.3. They just didn't fall, but they didn't skate clean either.

(Who was 6th in the short? Li? Easier solo jump, so lower base mark even disregarding the non-jump elements, basic skating, and presentation.)

So then you're free to argue whether Plyushenko deserved a higher base mark than them to start with. If they had all skated clean, would you have had a problem with his clean program having a higher base mark than theirs?

Do you think falls should automatically be penalized more than other errors? Those weren't the rules at the time. They are under the new system. But the new system also rewards all the other elements one by one, so it's also possible to build up enough of a lead in other elements to offset one fall.

And then there are the components, or the presentation mark in the old system. Subject to each judge's informed opinion of how well each skater met the criteria for those marks. And, undoubtedly, also influenced consciously or unconsciously by things like reputation, stylistic preference, national bias, and so forth.

But if we disagree, isn't that just our opinion (which may or may not be as informed as that of the judges), influenced consciously or unconsciously by the skaters' reputations in our minds, our stylistic preferences, our national bias, and so forth?

 

[Mathman]

I am an old sportsfan who believes in the best that night. It appears to me that the definition of a competition in figure skating is not what one worked for all year, but just how much fame one has.

Joe, what I was trying to say is simply that one of the reasons why one skater outperforms another that night is because he is a better skater.

If I put on skates and went out to compete against Timothy Goebel, Tim would win. Not because of his reputation or past successes, not because the judges cheat, but because he is the better skater. Even if he made a mistake or two, he would still skate better than I would on that night, the next night and again a week from Tuesday.

About that American lady skater, LOL, as far as competition in the U.S. is concerned, her level of talent is so much higher than that of anyone else except Sasha, that even when she skates badly by her standards, it is still the best performance that night. If she skates the best of all the competitors that night she deserves to win, even if her performance is not stellar when measured against some of her past triumphs.

Just my opinion, of course.

Mathman

 

[brinababy87]

Call it wishful thinking, but I really think Cohen will pull it off.

I know this is going to tempt the skate gods like none other.

 

[R.D.]

I know this is going to tempt the skate gods like none other.

No doubt.

 

[ragsy]

Olys: Will USA medal at all?

"As for the women, I expect to see either Cohen or Kwan - or perhaps both - win medals, but I do not expect either of them to win the gold medal. Irina Slutskaya is the favorite, not just because she's the defending World champion, but the judges love her. She skated a sub-par, slopped long program at SLC and nearly won the gold medal Cohen might take herself out of medal contention with mistakes, and Kwan might not have the technical content to challenge for a medal. "​

I'm perplexed by the continued perception that Irina is unbeatable and other posters (not necessarily you, SkateFan4Life) continually giving skaters such as Shiz, Fumie, Miki, Carolina, Joannie Rochette, even Kimmie Meissner and Emily Hughes, the benefit of the doubt that they could pull off some huge upset, but not giving MK and Sasha the same benefit of the doubt that they could win. It's always, "Sasha's not going to be able to pull off a clean program." "MK doesn't have the technical prowess to compete." At some point, Sasha will skate cleanly (or clean enough to win). And if anyone can up her technical content enough to be competitive, it will be MK. I firmly believe she is one of the smartest competitors around and will have a competitive program next season.

As for Irina, I'm sorry, but I can't yet jump on the bandwagon that she is going to be the same skater this year that she was last year. Yes, she won everything she entered last year, but she did not always skate particularly well. She was certainly beatable at Europeans, but her main competition doesn't come from Europe. A reasonably clean program by MK, Sasha, Shiz or Fumie would very likely have beaten her there.

The competitions when Irina skated her best (i.e., reasonably clean with completed 3/3's) happened to occur in Moscow (COR and Worlds). No one knows how much she benefitted by not having to travel at either competition. She was not only in her home country, but actually in her home city. Certainly she was able to train under her usual schedule right up until the last minute. She didn't have to deal with jet lag, unfamiliar food, strange hotel beds or noises in the night, etc. For all we know, she could have been sleeping in her own bed at night and not even staying in a hotel. Not having to travel, (especially with her medical condition) could have been a huge advantage for her. We saw how travel and skating at altitude affected her at Europeans in Tornio. Who's to say whether the altitude will not affect her again at the Olympics?

She also had the home crowd in her corner at Worlds. In addition to proving (to herself or others) that she could compete even with her illness, the excitement of having the first Worlds in Moscow in over 100 years was certainly motivation for her, as was the possible sweep of gold medals by Russia.

I'm not denying that she skated a spectacular long program at Worlds and won fair and square. But no one other than Irina really knows how much of a toll last season took on her and if she is going to be able to reach that same level of motivation this year. She hit a real high last season -- she proved that she could compete. She won Worlds at home (which I'm sure means more than anything to her). Is it reasonable to assume she will be able to reach that same high next season without the same motivational factors pushing her? I think we need to reserve judgment until we see her compete through the GP to see what kind of condition she really is in.

Cheers,

Ragsy

 

[Mathman]

ITA, Ragsy :agree: I think Kwan fans in particular are laying low at the moment, not wanting to send any vibes out into the universe that might bounce back and pierce our hearts.

We will have more to go on after Campbell's, Skate America and especially the Cup of China.

Mathman

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Ragsy - I think fans perceive Irina as the top skater at this point in time. It is based on the Worlds, the 2 GPs, and the GPF. It was only Euros that some doubt entered the picture. No other female skater gave such a winning season as Irina did. And why not continue it? We will see.

No one is writing off anyone else but it won't be easy. Irina is a CoP specialists and its the points that win in this game. She's got em.

Joe

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

MM - Yeah. You would lose against Tim and so would I. But hypothetically too, if it were Michael skating well, and Tim was not at his best, do we go back to the better skater on paper or to the best that night? Given there is only one spot left in the Nats for going to the Olys. I'm not talking about a Federation decision but a judge's decision. (Not like Jenny going and not 3rd place Kimmie).

Joe

 

[attyfan]

Ragsy: you made some great points. When you asked, though,
"Is it reasonable to assume she will be able to reach that same high next season without the same motivational factors pushing her?", I think that the answer is likely to be "no". Torino is not her home town, and, she probably won't have the backing of the audience (who will favor the home-country girl). I disagree, though, that "we need to reserve judgment until we see her compete through the GP to see what kind of condition she really is in" because Irina's medical condition, her mon's health, or both, could change overnight.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

attyfan - Irina will not get the blast that Carolina will but she will certainly get the European crowd roars. We have to allow for some judges being influenced by the roar of the crowd; we have to allow for some judges who are just prejudiced; we have to allow for judges who are in awe of young contestants; we have to allow for some judges being inept; and we have to understand their will be more than one Russian judge in the mix from whatever State he is listed under. (He could even be from the USA.) If it is a close race, it will be a Russian decision, imo.

The GPs will show who among the contestants are competitive. The Olymics should pick the 'best that night' but I am not at all sure it will.

Joe

 

[curious]

"As for the women, I expect to see either Cohen or Kwan - or perhaps both - win medals, but I do not expect either of them to win the gold medal. Irina Slutskaya is the favorite, not just because she's the defending World champion, but the judges love her. She skated a sub-par, slopped long program at SLC and nearly won the gold medal Cohen might take herself out of medal contention with mistakes, and Kwan might not have the technical content to challenge for a medal. "​

I'm perplexed by the continued perception that Irina is unbeatable and other posters (not necessarily you, SkateFan4Life) continually giving skaters such as Shiz, Fumie, Miki, Carolina, Joannie Rochette, even Kimmie Meissner and Emily Hughes, the benefit of the doubt that they could pull off some huge upset, but not giving MK and Sasha the same benefit of the doubt that they could win. It's always, "Sasha's not going to be able to pull off a clean program." "MK doesn't have the technical prowess to compete." At some point, Sasha will skate cleanly (or clean enough to win). And if anyone can up her technical content enough to be competitive, it will be MK. I firmly believe she is one of the smartest competitors around and will have a competitive program next season.

As for Irina, I'm sorry, but I can't yet jump on the bandwagon that she is going to be the same skater this year that she was last year. Yes, she won everything she entered last year, but she did not always skate particularly well. She was certainly beatable at Europeans, but her main competition doesn't come from Europe. A reasonably clean program by MK, Sasha, Shiz or Fumie would very likely have beaten her there.

The competitions when Irina skated her best (i.e., reasonably clean with completed 3/3's) happened to occur in Moscow (COR and Worlds). No one knows how much she benefitted by not having to travel at either competition. She was not only in her home country, but actually in her home city. Certainly she was able to train under her usual schedule right up until the last minute. She didn't have to deal with jet lag, unfamiliar food, strange hotel beds or noises in the night, etc. For all we know, she could have been sleeping in her own bed at night and not even staying in a hotel. Not having to travel, (especially with her medical condition) could have been a huge advantage for her. We saw how travel and skating at altitude affected her at Europeans in Tornio. Who's to say whether the altitude will not affect her again at the Olympics?

She also had the home crowd in her corner at Worlds. In addition to proving (to herself or others) that she could compete even with her illness, the excitement of having the first Worlds in Moscow in over 100 years was certainly motivation for her, as was the possible sweep of gold medals by Russia.

I'm not denying that she skated a spectacular long program at Worlds and won fair and square. But no one other than Irina really knows how much of a toll last season took on her and if she is going to be able to reach that same level of motivation this year. She hit a real high last season -- she proved that she could compete. She won Worlds at home (which I'm sure means more than anything to her). Is it reasonable to assume she will be able to reach that same high next season without the same motivational factors pushing her? I think we need to reserve judgment until we see her compete through the GP to see what kind of condition she really is in.

Cheers,

Ragsy

Didn't michell beneffited from competiting at home in 2003 Worlds? Has michell skated a FULL SEASON in the past three or four years? Michell is a bigger question mark(has alot to prove to the judges and fans)this season than Irina. We know what Irina can do sick or not(she is not afraid to compete outside her country)but we have no clue about michell's skating,or whether she is going to compete in the GP. We'll see

 

[R.D.]

"As for the women, I expect to see either Cohen or Kwan - or perhaps both - win medals, but I do not expect either of them to win the gold medal. Irina Slutskaya is the favorite, not just because she's the defending World champion, but the judges love her. She skated a sub-par, slopped long program at SLC and nearly won the gold medal Cohen might take herself out of medal contention with mistakes, and Kwan might not have the technical content to challenge for a medal. "​

I'm perplexed by the continued perception that Irina is unbeatable and other posters (not necessarily you, SkateFan4Life) continually giving skaters such as Shiz, Fumie, Miki, Carolina, Joannie Rochette, even Kimmie Meissner and Emily Hughes, the benefit of the doubt that they could pull off some huge upset, but not giving MK and Sasha the same benefit of the doubt that they could win. It's always, "Sasha's not going to be able to pull off a clean program." "MK doesn't have the technical prowess to compete." At some point, Sasha will skate cleanly (or clean enough to win). And if anyone can up her technical content enough to be competitive, it will be MK. I firmly believe she is one of the smartest competitors around and will have a competitive program next season.

As for Irina, I'm sorry, but I can't yet jump on the bandwagon that she is going to be the same skater this year that she was last year. Yes, she won everything she entered last year, but she did not always skate particularly well. She was certainly beatable at Europeans, but her main competition doesn't come from Europe. A reasonably clean program by MK, Sasha, Shiz or Fumie would very likely have beaten her there.

The competitions when Irina skated her best (i.e., reasonably clean with completed 3/3's) happened to occur in Moscow (COR and Worlds). No one knows how much she benefitted by not having to travel at either competition. She was not only in her home country, but actually in her home city. Certainly she was able to train under her usual schedule right up until the last minute. She didn't have to deal with jet lag, unfamiliar food, strange hotel beds or noises in the night, etc. For all we know, she could have been sleeping in her own bed at night and not even staying in a hotel. Not having to travel, (especially with her medical condition) could have been a huge advantage for her. We saw how travel and skating at altitude affected her at Europeans in Tornio. Who's to say whether the altitude will not affect her again at the Olympics?

She also had the home crowd in her corner at Worlds. In addition to proving (to herself or others) that she could compete even with her illness, the excitement of having the first Worlds in Moscow in over 100 years was certainly motivation for her, as was the possible sweep of gold medals by Russia.

I'm not denying that she skated a spectacular long program at Worlds and won fair and square. But no one other than Irina really knows how much of a toll last season took on her and if she is going to be able to reach that same level of motivation this year. She hit a real high last season -- she proved that she could compete. She won Worlds at home (which I'm sure means more than anything to her). Is it reasonable to assume she will be able to reach that same high next season without the same motivational factors pushing her? I think we need to reserve judgment until we see her compete through the GP to see what kind of condition she really is in.

Cheers,

Ragsy

You bring up some really good points. That said, I do think that, since Irina would be still in Europe, she would get SOME enthusiastic applause.

About MK and SC getting more slack: MK has an uphill battle to fight right now, and SC is fairly predictable (she'll make at least one or two small mistakes). However, the other skaters aren't quite so predictable. That's why I think they are more likely to pull off an upset.

 

[attyfan]

Didn't michell beneffited from competiting at home in 2003 Worlds? Has michell skated a FULL SEASON in the past three or four years? Michell is a bigger question mark(has alot to prove to the judges and fans)this season than Irina. We know what Irina can do sick or not(she is not afraid to compete outside her country)but we have no clue about michell's skating,or whether she is going to compete in the GP. We'll see

Without skating a full season, Michelle has won two World medals, which is more than most skaters have done even with a full GP. Furthermore, the GPs that Michelle has skipped included a GPF in Colorado as well as SA and SC -- leaving the US isn't that big a problem (especially since, before the ISU issued its threatening letter, Kwan could have done the GP and skip the GPF). Michelle, more than any other skater, could easily could have retired (as a matter of fact, there were a lot of people predicting she would do just that before Moscow). If Michelle skips the GP, it is because something is wrong (whether or not she discloses the details) or because she wants something out of this Olys besides a medal -- but IMO, her guts are not wanting.

 

[Doggygirl]

Some amateur armchair quarterbacking....

When it comes to MK, I admire her skating, and all of her accomplishments over the years - which span a competitive career that has been very lasting. There is no doubt that her accomplishments will stand in the record books for years, regardless of the outcome of any particular competitions next season, including the Olympics.

I personally like evaluating competitive strategy (heck, I like doing that in the Corporate world as well, but that's not at issue here). So my following observations have nothing to do with MK on a personal level (I've never met her in person, but would probably enjoy that experience if I had the chance). This is strictly strategic observation.

In my eyes, there are a couple of things that I think hurt MK in the recent competitive seasons:

1) Relying too much on reputation and too much of what MK wants to put on the ice, as opposed to what the judges want to see, and that the current rules require.

2) Relying too much on home ice environment. (please note, I did NOT say home ice advantage)

On point 1) - I sort of shook my head when MK was interviewed during World's this year, and stated that "getting used to COP" was some sort of issue. COP / NJS has been around now for two seasons of international competition, so that just doesn't make sense to me for someone as highly competitive as MK claims to be.

On point 2) - MK has a very well deserved, incredible American / North American fan base. I personally admire the fact that MK seems to feed on that *energy* - not fall apart over it. (which is a ??? with regard to Carolina in Turino) That is something that many, many skaters over the years probably couldn't do. But since she seems to thrive on that audience, what is the opposite? What happens when she skates on foreign ice where she doesn't get that level of audience feedback? I HAVE to think for a performer / competitor, that audience reaction makes a difference pro or con - feeds you or makes you fall apart. Since MK seems to thrive effectively on the "pro" side of the coin, what happens when she takes the ice to a more neutral reaction? One of the reasons I hope MK does the *full* GP this year is to test her programs in a *Non Love Fest* environment. To this armchair quarterback, that seems more important to me than "getting feedback on COP" which I never really bought in the first place.

So, given this long explanation, what it MK's competitive record over the last 3 seasons 1) in the US, 2) in North America and 3) outside North America?

While we're at it, I wouldn't mind discussing this same POV for others such as Sasha (same criteria) Irina (Russia, Euros which I might equate sort of to NA for MK/SA) and Other International) etc. That might give us some interesting statistics to discuss since it's still the off season.

Maybe I have a future as a bookie, since I don't tend to get emotional about this stuff.... Or maybe I'm just still a rookie!! (that would make me feel really really good at my age!)

DG