Some random thoughts....
1. Dance is interesting. If you believe it'll be fair, than you tend to pick either V/M or D/W for gold. If you think politics will rear it's ugly head, then it's DomShabs on the top step (or maybe DelSchoes).
2. If Davis/White do win, we can definitely say the old World Order is gone. Never before has a team won the OGM without winning a worlds medal. In fact, only two teams have won Olympic medals without a preceding world medal: Anissina/Piezarat in 1998 (at the expense of Bourne/Kraatz) and Klimova/Ponamarenko in 1984 (at the expense of Blumberg/Siebert).
3. Davis/White almost seem to be following Bourne/Kraatz pre-SLC. 4th at the previous words, winners of the GPF (remember, B/K beat A/P here). I'd be surprised, though, if D/W didn't medal. I can see two of other the top five teams beating them, but three? Delolbel/Schoenfelder, who will be debuting their program internationally? Belbin/Agosto, who've been consistently outpointed even when Davis/White make mistakes? The big issue here is politics, of course. People keep commenting on Linichuk's political abilities, but why didn't said abilities help B/A win Nationals (over D/W who did get the one deduction). Why wasn't it enough to help them secure a more considerable victory at Europeans (over F/S, who were terrific, admittedly, but the rest of the field? The midrange Kerrs, the still-playing catch-up K/N, the newly dumped and flawed P/B). Watching some of the older FDs from DomShabs makes me sad at how deeply his knee(s) have affected them, but they have. I just don't know to what extent politics favours these two teams, and how much that'll help.
4. The men's field is so ridiculously broad that a podium with three of: Abbott, Chan, Joubert, Lambiel, Lysacek, Oda, Plushenko, Takahashi would be completely unsurprising (Verner on the podium in this field would be surprising. Ditto Weir, Contesti and Kozuka). So predicting it is a bit of a gong show for me.
a) If triple axel problems emerge for Chan and Lambiel (as we know they will), will they be too far back after the short the do real medal damage? Especially Lambiel - he's a skater fighting injuries off (apparently he's not training his spins at all, which explains why they weren't the best in the history of the sport right now), but his PCS are always high and I suspect they'll be so at the Olympics.
b) Conversely, will those short program skaters (Joubert, Takahashi) have a strong enough lead to hold on to a medal?
c) How do the next generation do? I'm thinking Ten, Amodio, Fernandez, Brezina (Rippon's obviously part of this group as well, but doesn't count for obvious reasons)
d) I don't view Plushenko as a mortal lock on the OGM, but he's the one the most likely to skate to his potential and his potential is certainly OGM level. But I think his PCS at Euros were telling - they're not gonna prop him up (which he doesn't need, admittedly).
e) Has Oda peaked too early? How about Abbott?
f) No one has won an OGM without winning a Worlds medal first here either. Of course, here that means nothing given how mixed the medalists have been (Joubert being the one constant).
5. No idea about the ladies. People point out Rochette's had a poor season and isn't great with expectations. Kim has been winning but not perfectly (and not minor errors, but falls, stumbles, leaving out jumps). Asada had a horrible beginning, but winning Nationals and 4CC should be a boost. Or maybe not - her 4CC wasn't amazing, and she did lose the short. Suzuki's been living in pretty much a fairy tale - winning her first GP event, winning bronze at the GPF with a seven triple program, throwing down another seven triple program at Nationals and earning an Olympic berth, second at 4CC. More so than any other skater, she so easily conveys the sheer joy of skating - her steps sequence in her "West Side Story" free is one of my favourite skating moments of the season. I'm rooting for her to do well - a top five finish, maybe a medal? But as for predictions? Well, Kim's the favourite for a reason. We're gonna have three world champions here. We're gonna have two silver medalists (three technically, but you know what I mean). People have been wagering on Flatt's competitive steadiness, but lets be fair, it's the Olympics. She's never been tested like this before. And she'll have her own expectations - her own comments suggests it would be doubtful to see her in Sochi. So if this is her one chance, she'll want to own it. And what of Kostner? It's so tempting to go for the tried and true and predict a repeat of the 2009 Worlds, but how often does that happen (short answer? 1967/1968: Fleming, Seyfert and Maskova were the medalists in 1967, and repeated in the same order in 1968)? We say that the favourites haven't won, but to be fair, that means they haven't won in the last two Olympics. I don't know how Lipinski, Baiul or Yamaguchi wouldn't have been at least co-favourites.
6. Pairs? Boring. But Shen/Zhao winning will probably be the most satisfying moment of the games. And them not winning would rip my heart out and stomp on it. I do think we're underestimating D/D - bronze is a longshot, but I think top five is reasonable).
Since when do journalists judge PCS scores in competitions?
I wonder if Costner will pull a Lu Chen and make a great comeback.
