Anything is possible. It could be someone else with the top spot. Nothing is coming to me. I don't know who will win. Who knows...if Jenny does well in the gp and skates better than anyone at Nationals they may be willing to give her the title. Michelle and Sasha would really have to falter bad for the judges to put that National title in someone else’s hand that is not as well know as Michelle or Sasha.
Predict Ladies top 5 at USA Nationals!!!
- Thread starter Taan
- Start date
He, he, he. I like this! I will make my predictions based on whether Ms. Hughes competes:
1: Sarah Hughes
2: Michelle Kwan
3: Jenny Kirk
4: AP
5: Amber
6: Sasha
If Sarah stays home to rest"
1: Michelle Kwan
2: Jenny Kirk
3: AP
4: Amber
5: Sasha
I agree with others, my predictions are also based on what I would like to happen based on some obsessive fans as well.
1: Sarah Hughes
2: Michelle Kwan
3: Jenny Kirk
4: AP
5: Amber
6: Sasha
If Sarah stays home to rest"
1: Michelle Kwan
2: Jenny Kirk
3: AP
4: Amber
5: Sasha
I agree with others, my predictions are also based on what I would like to happen based on some obsessive fans as well.
- Joined
- Aug 5, 2003
My predictions:
Ladies:
1. Sasha
2. Michelle
3. Jenny
Men:
1. Tim
2. Michael
3. Scott Smith (wishful thinking...but I love him!)
I disagree. She hasn't actually fallen at a single competition yet. She's not perfect, but I think she's a hell of a lot more consistent. And she seems more confident, to me.
Ladies:
1. Sasha
2. Michelle
3. Jenny
Men:
1. Tim
2. Michael
3. Scott Smith (wishful thinking...but I love him!)
I disagree. She hasn't actually fallen at a single competition yet. She's not perfect, but I think she's a hell of a lot more consistent. And she seems more confident, to me.
- Joined
- Jul 30, 2003
Top 5
Seriously, it's too early in the season to make any kind of serious prediction. But if I had to, I would say Michelle Kwan. She is just too good and too consistent, to bet against.
That said, Sasha looks to be mounting the most serious challenge she ever has. If MK elects not to try a 3/3, I think she will need a flawless skate to beat Sasha.
Only if someone decides that Hubcap Tonya's antics might be worth repeating.Joesitz said:
Seriously, it's too early in the season to make any kind of serious prediction. But if I had to, I would say Michelle Kwan. She is just too good and too consistent, to bet against.
That said, Sasha looks to be mounting the most serious challenge she ever has. If MK elects not to try a 3/3, I think she will need a flawless skate to beat Sasha.
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- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
Re: Top 5
Praise to be, someone else thinks it is TOO EARLY to predict.
Kwan is consistent in what she does. Sasha has not yet executed a 3x3 yet. She seems happy with the CoP and has stated that it's good that there are other elements besides jumps.
BIG QUESTION: If Kwan or Cohen falter, will either or both be held up for the Worlds?
Joe
Ogre Mage said:
Praise to be, someone else thinks it is TOO EARLY to predict.
Kwan is consistent in what she does. Sasha has not yet executed a 3x3 yet. She seems happy with the CoP and has stated that it's good that there are other elements besides jumps.
BIG QUESTION: If Kwan or Cohen falter, will either or both be held up for the Worlds?
Joe
- Joined
- Jul 30, 2003
Re: Re: Top 5
There is some precedent for this. Both have had less than stellar Nationals -- MK in 1997, Sasha in 2003 -- but they still placed well enough to go to worlds.
Of course, if they had a meltdown of epic proportions (a la Laeticia Hubert at the 1992 Olympics) I think the judges would keep them off the world team.
I think both would within reason. Sasha has dominated the GP circuit for a year and a half and MK is the reigning National and World Champion. So the judges will give them a little latitude and keep them on the world team -- although probably a step or two lower on the podium then they would like.Joesitz said:
There is some precedent for this. Both have had less than stellar Nationals -- MK in 1997, Sasha in 2003 -- but they still placed well enough to go to worlds.
Of course, if they had a meltdown of epic proportions (a la Laeticia Hubert at the 1992 Olympics) I think the judges would keep them off the world team.
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- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
Ogre - If the judges hold Cohen and Kwan up then there is really only one place open. It would be easy to pick AP but she's not doing all that well this year. Jenny surprised us but can she keep the surprise going? Yebin is nuring injuries. There is a break through chance for Bebe but we hardly ever see her. What about that Ms Meiser from Novice Ladies. I believe she's skating seniors this year.
I think this thread should be titled Who's going to be third? and it's tough to answer.
Joe
I think this thread should be titled Who's going to be third? and it's tough to answer.
Joe
I think Sasha would be held up, not so sure about Kwan. Kwan wasn't "gifted" at '00 Nationals when she made a mistake. An "unknown" Cohen was in 1st after the SP. (Kwan won the LP fair and square, and Sarah should've placed 2nd) Also, at '97, the judges had no problem putting Lipinski into 1st after Kwan's mistakes.
So far, I have seen Sasha being given gifts. For example? Nationals '03. Sasha was SO held up in that SP, and maybe even the LP. And before anyone points out about Sarah, yes, I know Sarah was held up in the SP too. But Sasha should've been in like 6th place after the SP.
So far, I have seen Sasha being given gifts. For example? Nationals '03. Sasha was SO held up in that SP, and maybe even the LP. And before anyone points out about Sarah, yes, I know Sarah was held up in the SP too. But Sasha should've been in like 6th place after the SP.
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2003
Hi, Nune. Welcome to the forum. You might be right, but I hope Michelle does a little better.
About triple-triples, this could be important because the scoring will be the 6.0 method instead of the CoP. The 6.0 tended to reward the boldest moves, whereas under the CoP you can amass a lot of points by transitions and other stuff, without a blockbusting element. Maybe one of the reasons that Sasha has been so consistent this season is because she has payed it safe so far, without going for a triple-triple. I wonder if she will change her program especially for Nationals.
Mathman
About triple-triples, this could be important because the scoring will be the 6.0 method instead of the CoP. The 6.0 tended to reward the boldest moves, whereas under the CoP you can amass a lot of points by transitions and other stuff, without a blockbusting element. Maybe one of the reasons that Sasha has been so consistent this season is because she has payed it safe so far, without going for a triple-triple. I wonder if she will change her program especially for Nationals.
Mathman
- Joined
- Aug 16, 2003
I have a strong feeling Sasha's pacing herself with regard to the 3/3. She ran out of gas by the end of last season, and she won both GP events so far without it, so playing it conservatively and getting the program tweaked and down pat in other areas (and adding the triple combo at GPF, Nats, and Worlds) might be the smartest way to go.
As for that third spot (since I think Michelle and Sasha will be on that world team barring injury or an utter meltdown) I think it's Jenny's to take, provided she doesn't fall apart in her other comps. Does anyone think Sarah will compete?
As for that third spot (since I think Michelle and Sasha will be on that world team barring injury or an utter meltdown) I think it's Jenny's to take, provided she doesn't fall apart in her other comps. Does anyone think Sarah will compete?
- Joined
- Aug 30, 2003
I don't predict
Way tooooo early to make educated predictions. We still have Trophy Lalique, Cup of Russia, NHK, Grand Prix Final, and December Cheesefest before nationals. Predict top 5 Ladies at 2004 Nats. I must digress, since I have an "I don't predict rule". I do analyze however.
I think the pressure will be on Cohen to "perform" but I must say that sasha won't feel pressure this year because she has a new midesent about her skating this year. She has been skating great so far in her grand prix events. I hope she does not burn out early in the season. Her goal is to perform with no errors, if she does that well like uncle dick says she will be in "good stead". I think VERY good stead.
Old-time vet Michelle will most likely skate from the heart because I' guessing she cares less if she wins or not but rather to put on an good performance also she hasn't competed much this season so she will be ready and primed for Atlanta. She is always a force to be reconked with.
AP, Jenny, Bebe, Amber, Yebin, Naiomi, Angela:
These girls are all in the same boat. All the attention will be on Kwan and Cohen. These girls want to break-out. They all want that 3rd spot on the team. 1 spot but 7 skaters with the talent to take it so there will be little margin for error. what does that mean? Well the short program has 8 elments with big deductions for falls, two-foots, ect. So it will be do-or-die for these ladies. As for the long program they the one with the least mistakes will make the world team.
Joe asked it Kwan and/or Cohen falter will they be heald up?
I think it depends on how badly they falter. If it is a true disaster then most likely they will not be heald up(especially cohen). However there has been no evidence so far this season that Cohen will make mistakes come january. As for Kwan anything better than her '97 long will place her on the world team.
JMHO
P.s
oh yes I do wanna predict what Peggy will say before Cohen and Kwan take the ice...
Cohen:
"Sasha wants to prove that this is HER time. She has extraordinary talent.!!"
Kwan:
"With others nipping at her heels, Michelle knows she has to skate cleanly in order to win."
may to best skater win
Way tooooo early to make educated predictions. We still have Trophy Lalique, Cup of Russia, NHK, Grand Prix Final, and December Cheesefest before nationals. Predict top 5 Ladies at 2004 Nats. I must digress, since I have an "I don't predict rule". I do analyze however.
I think the pressure will be on Cohen to "perform" but I must say that sasha won't feel pressure this year because she has a new midesent about her skating this year. She has been skating great so far in her grand prix events. I hope she does not burn out early in the season. Her goal is to perform with no errors, if she does that well like uncle dick says she will be in "good stead". I think VERY good stead.
Old-time vet Michelle will most likely skate from the heart because I' guessing she cares less if she wins or not but rather to put on an good performance also she hasn't competed much this season so she will be ready and primed for Atlanta. She is always a force to be reconked with.
AP, Jenny, Bebe, Amber, Yebin, Naiomi, Angela:
These girls are all in the same boat. All the attention will be on Kwan and Cohen. These girls want to break-out. They all want that 3rd spot on the team. 1 spot but 7 skaters with the talent to take it so there will be little margin for error. what does that mean? Well the short program has 8 elments with big deductions for falls, two-foots, ect. So it will be do-or-die for these ladies. As for the long program they the one with the least mistakes will make the world team.
Joe asked it Kwan and/or Cohen falter will they be heald up?
I think it depends on how badly they falter. If it is a true disaster then most likely they will not be heald up(especially cohen). However there has been no evidence so far this season that Cohen will make mistakes come january. As for Kwan anything better than her '97 long will place her on the world team.
JMHO
P.s
oh yes I do wanna predict what Peggy will say before Cohen and Kwan take the ice...
Cohen:
"Sasha wants to prove that this is HER time. She has extraordinary talent.!!"
Kwan:
"With others nipping at her heels, Michelle knows she has to skate cleanly in order to win."
may to best skater win
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Predict Ladies top 5 at Nationals
My top 5
1. Sasha (because she's the most spectacular skater I have
have ever seen)
2. Michelle Kwan (her tosca is very good)
3. Jennie Kirk (her style has improved tremendously)
4. AP McDonnough
5. Angela N. (If she holds it together she could be no. 3)
My top 5
1. Sasha (because she's the most spectacular skater I have
have ever seen)
2. Michelle Kwan (her tosca is very good)
3. Jennie Kirk (her style has improved tremendously)
4. AP McDonnough
5. Angela N. (If she holds it together she could be no. 3)
- Joined
- Jul 11, 2003
This thread is going beyond predictions and it pleases me. Everyone knows there will be no contest for 1st and 2nd. However 3rd place is difficult to predict.
Quote from Kwanisqueen:
"AP, Jenny, Bebe, Amber, Yebin, Naiomi, Angela:
These girls are all in the same boat. All the attention will be on Kwan and Cohen. These girls want to break-out. They all want that 3rd spot on the team. 1 spot but 7 skaters with the talent to take it so there will be little margin for error. what does that mean? Well the short program has 8 elments with big deductions for falls, two-foots, ect. So it will be do-or-die for these ladies. As for the long program they the one with the least mistakes will make the world team."
What is so important for 3rd place for these skaters? Well, it's not just for the 2004 Worlds because the same 1st and 2nd places are most likely going to be in 2006 Olys, so it will still be a 3rd place open.
How sad for the other six mentioned by Kwanisqueen. Any one or more of them could be a winner or at least in top ten at the Olys.
Joe
Quote from Kwanisqueen:
"AP, Jenny, Bebe, Amber, Yebin, Naiomi, Angela:
These girls are all in the same boat. All the attention will be on Kwan and Cohen. These girls want to break-out. They all want that 3rd spot on the team. 1 spot but 7 skaters with the talent to take it so there will be little margin for error. what does that mean? Well the short program has 8 elments with big deductions for falls, two-foots, ect. So it will be do-or-die for these ladies. As for the long program they the one with the least mistakes will make the world team."
What is so important for 3rd place for these skaters? Well, it's not just for the 2004 Worlds because the same 1st and 2nd places are most likely going to be in 2006 Olys, so it will still be a 3rd place open.
How sad for the other six mentioned by Kwanisqueen. Any one or more of them could be a winner or at least in top ten at the Olys.
Joe
- Joined
- Jun 24, 2003
My Predictions 
(Although I agree with Joe that its a bit early to be predicing this particular event, but hey, its fun too so why not, LOL 
)
1. Michelle Kwan (She has owned this event for a long time)
2. Sasha Cohen (Improving but will want it too much again and falter)
3. Jenny Kirk (She is taking this season by storm)
4. AP McDonough (Knocking on the podium door again)
5. YeBin Mok (If she can recover from her injuries)
My Dream Nationals
1. Michelle Kwan
2. Jenny Kirk
3. Angela Nikodinov
4. Amber Corwin
5. AP McDonough
No matter what happens or who ends up on the world team, this is going to be one awesome US Nats and I am SOOO excited that I will get to see it all in person down in Atlanta. Break out my Tums though because it sure will be nerve wracking!! LOL
(Although I agree with Joe that its a bit early to be predicing this particular event, but hey, its fun too so why not, LOL )1. Michelle Kwan (She has owned this event for a long time)
2. Sasha Cohen (Improving but will want it too much again and falter)
3. Jenny Kirk (She is taking this season by storm)
4. AP McDonough (Knocking on the podium door again)
5. YeBin Mok (If she can recover from her injuries)
My Dream Nationals
1. Michelle Kwan
2. Jenny Kirk
3. Angela Nikodinov
4. Amber Corwin
5. AP McDonough
No matter what happens or who ends up on the world team, this is going to be one awesome US Nats and I am SOOO excited that I will get to see it all in person down in Atlanta. Break out my Tums though because it sure will be nerve wracking!! LOL
- Joined
- Jul 26, 2003
SkateCynic said:
Actually, after seeing her live, Sasha's jumps aren't really that big, not so much as to make the 3lutz/3toe a sure thing. Also, while her lutz is landed most of the time, she seems to be to be leaning slightly forward in the air, at least during SA.
She may try it, but I think her semi consistency this year has come from focusing on her single triples. Also, I don't think she really needs it, Michelle and Sasha are both pretty darn good and either could win depending on how they skate.
