Predictions

[Molly1]

Maybe...

Men

1. Joubert
2. Weir
3. Patrick Chan


Ladies

1. Yu-Na Kim
2. Joannie Rochette
3. Mao Asada


Pairs

1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Pang/Tong
3. Zhang/Zhang

 

[propronia]

Did Mao's new program really increase base value over her old program? There are two 3A and 5 triples in new program while there were one 3A and 6 triples in old program. if she doesn't replace 3T with 3Lz, there might not be change in base value between old program and new program. That's the reason why I questioned Mao's strategy.

Last season
3A 7.5
3F+3T 9.5
3Lz 6.0
3Lo 5.5
3F+3Lo 11.55
2A+2Lo+2Lo 7.15
2A 3.95
Total 51.05

This season
3A+2T 9.5
3A 8.2
3F+2Lo+2Lo 8.5
3S 4.95
3F+3Lo 11.55
3Lz 6.6
2A 3.85
Total 53.15

As she mentioned, the solo 3T is a temporary measure to reduce burdens. After finally avoiding edge calls on the lutz, she won't do that again. If 3A+2T is replaces with 3A+3T, the total reaches 55.85 points.

Kim's jump layout(exactly same with last season)
3F+3T 9.5
2A 3.5
3Lz+2T+2Lo 8.8
2A+3T 7.5
3Lz 6.6
3S 4.95
2A 3.85
Total 44.70

Rochette's jump layout
3Lz+2T+2Lo 8.8
3F 5.5
3Lo 5.0
3Lz 6.6
3T+3S+SEQ 7.48
2A+2A+SEQ 6.16
3S 4.95
Total 44.49

Kostner's jump layout
3F+3T+2Lo 11.0
3Lz 6.0
3F 5.5
3Lo 5.0
2A+3T 8.25
3S+2Lo 6.6
2A 3.85
Total 46.20

Ando's jump layout
3T+3Lo 9.0
3S 4.5
3F 5.5
3Lz 6.6
3Lz+2Lo 8.25
3Lo 5.5
2A+2Lo+2Lo 7.15
Total 46.50
If the 4S is in place, it's 52.30 points.

Rochette's BV is the lowest among five contenders, but she doesn't have the risk of edge calls and underrotations. OTOH Kim is now facing these threats. Although I don't expect really fair judings at this event, the pressure on her should be enormous. She must prepare for at least "!" on her lip combinations, then the GOE advantages will be diminished. In fact, the highest total GOE of this season's ladies FS is recorded by Asada (NHK) not by Kim or Rochette.

 

[Bennett]

Taka vs PatChan

If both are clean, Patrick seems to have the PCS advantage.

I thought that it would be cool if Kozuka lands the quad and grabs the Gold or Silver. But I just read an article in which he was saying that his success rate was 1/5 in practices. So I would not expect that to happen here. Given that he may need to throw away the whole or most of the points for the quad, I would expect him to place lower than Patrick who won't try the quad. It would be cool if he could get the Bronze.

I hope that Patrick lands all of his 3As and lutzs and win Bronze or Silver because he landed them a lot last season.

I expect that Gold winner would be someone who is more experienced than these two boys.

 

[yunaddiction]

Now here is the betting table for ladies

1. Yu-Na
2. Mao
3. Joannie by 50% most likely + my 'desire'

1. Mao
2. Yu-Na
3. Joannie by 30% perfect Mao + Yuna's fall

1. Yu-Na
2. Joannie
3. Mao by 5% sensational Joannie + Mao's fall

1. Mao
2. Joannie
3. Yu-Na by 5% maybe someone's desire

1. Joannie
2. Yuna/Mao by 5% I like Joannie.... but not likely...

Any chance for
other 3 ladies by 5% If Joannie collapsed. ( not likely too...)
expect joannie in podium anyway.

 

[silverlining]

Out of pure curiosity,
Does anyone know if there's a sports betting site that takes bets on figure skating events?

Or is figure skating too elegant(unpopular) of a sport to be involved in all of that?

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

Out of pure curiosity,
Does anyone know if there's a sports betting site that takes bets on figure skating events?

Or is figure skating too elegant(unpopular) of a sport to be involved in all of that?

There used to be one in Las Vegas, but after 2002 scandal, I think it closed.

 

[yunaddiction]

OTOH Kim is now facing these threats. Although I don't expect really fair judings at this event, the pressure on her should be enormous. She must prepare for at least "!" on her lip combinations, then the GOE advantages will be diminished. In fact, the highest total GOE of this season's ladies FS is recorded by Asada (NHK) not by Kim or Rochette.

'Yuna's lip' happens only because of...

1. The thoughtless technical panal. (in COC)
2. Some conspiracy. (If it happens again in GPF)

After all, I don't believe in the case 2

 

[jaejang2001]

I think Coc technical judges came from icedancing.

They didnot understand jumping mechanism.

This video says jump mechanism.

http://jp.youtube.com/watch?v=hTQp1wpVP7c

If technical judges correct, Mao's flip is 'LIP' too.

http://gall.dcinside.com/list.php?i...&search_pos=-428176&k_type=0110&keyword=마오+플립

 

[Betty07]

Men
1. Patrick Chan
2. Brian Joubert
3. Johnny Weir


Ladies
1. Yu-Na Kim
2. Yukari Nakano
3. Mao Asada


Pairs
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Zhang/Zhang
3. Pang/Tong


Ice Dance
1. Delobel/Schoenfelder
2. Domnina/Shabalin
3. Belbin/Agosto

 

[jaejang2001]

This video clip is Mao's fixed triple Lutz from japanese broadcasting.

http://bbs.sports.media.daum.net/ga...chKey=&searchValue=&sortKey=depth&searchName=


But the video is made of two different clips.

First clip is "ANA"background.---maybe Two foot landing?

Second (Zoom In)clip is "SEIKO"backgrond--- clear landing.


Why they did make two different clips?

answer is here.


http://gall.dcinside.com/list.php?i...e=1&search_pos=-466979&k_type=0100&keyword=러츠

 

[Eevun]

This is hard, so hard... I've postponed it as long as I could (ok, I've got one more week to think, I'll change if so )

I don't believe in Verner, never have, never will. Chan and Abbott have been the 2 most uneven skaters, top and bottom (almost) of the top 6-list. Kozuka skated 2 very good events. I was reaaaally worried about Joubert in France but have never been happier the week after, it was The Skating Moment Weir, who use to be my darling hasn't impressed me that much yet this season. His sparkle is going down...
But you can't predict this with math, so I say:


MEN
1. Brian Joubert
2. Takahiko Kozuka
3. Johnny Weir
4. Patrick Chan
5. Jeremy Abbott
6. Tomas Verner


The 3rd place was the hardest... Got to many candidates. Can't we push 4 guys up on the 3rd podium...?

Edit: I can't do this! I'm going mad! It's 3 in the morning and I'm predicting the mens GP podium!!! When I'm ready to submit, I look one last time, rearrange, realizing place 5 is to low for that skater, rearrange again, coming to the same conclusion. Anyone can win, seriously! Has there ever been so hard to predict the GP Final?! (This is a question for you, I've never followed the GP season before)



I'll do the other 3 disciplines later...

 

[Bennett]

the whole thing

Awwww, love your posts

 

[Mathman]

This video clip is Mao's fixed triple Lutz from japanese broadcasting....

How many times are you going to post these same clips, over and over. What does this have to do with this prediction thread?

 

[SailorGalaxia518]

Here are my predictions:

PAIRS

1.) Dan Zhang and Hao Zhang (CHN)
2.) Aliona Savchenko and Robin Szolkowy (GER)
3.) Yuko Kawaguchi and Alexander Smirnov (RUS)


MEN

1.) Brian Joubert (FRA)
2.) Patrick Chan (CAN)
3.) Johnny Weir (USA)

ICE DANCING

Ok, this one is to hard to predict as all these teams hve been neck and neck so I am just going to list three teams I think will be on the podium in any order

1.) Tanith Belbin and Benjamin Agosto (USA)
2.) Isabelle Delobel and Olivier Schoenfelder (FRA)
3.) Oksna Domnina and Maxim Shabalin (RUS)

LADIES

1.) Yu-Na Kim (KOR)
2.) Joannie Rochette (CAN)
3.) Mao Asada (JPN)

 

[Tonichelle]

How many times are you going to post these same clips, over and over. What does this have to do with this prediction thread?

What MM is trying to say is - enough is too much already. Stay on topic (or at the very least quit dragging up the battle cries). Keep the youtube wars ON YOUTUBE.

 

[puhijun]

L
In fact, the highest total GOE of this season's ladies FS is recorded by Asada (NHK) not by Kim or Rochette.

It was actually done by Kim, look again (CoC protocol).

 

[alclswhrqkfl]

Men

1.Brian Joubert
2.Patrick Chan
3.Takahiko Kozuka
4.Tomas Verner
5.Johnny Weir
6.Jeremy Abbott


Ladies

1.Yu-Na Kim
2.Mao Asada
3.Joannie Rochette
4.Yukari Nakano
5.Carolina Kostner
6.Miki Ando

 

[siberia82]

Edit: I can't do this! I'm going mad! It's 3 in the morning and I'm predicting the mens GP podium!!! When I'm ready to submit, I look one last time, rearrange, realizing place 5 is to low for that skater, rearrange again, coming to the same conclusion. Anyone can win, seriously! Has there ever been so hard to predict the GP Final?! (This is a question for you, I've never followed the GP season before)...

You're not the only one going CRAZY!!! This is the first time I've followed the GP circuit as well. My predictions for the men ranges from decent to very good throughout this rather unpredictable season, but my sixth sense is TOTALLY fried right now!!! *pulls out her hair* I'm getting all sorts of mixed signals, and I can't make any sense of it!!! :think: :scratch: One moment I have an idea of what the Top 6 will look like, but a second later it completely changes! :banging:

I will simply list the standings which appear slightly (but only slightly!) more often than the other scenarios. I generally get a couple of details right even when my intuition is "off", but I wouldn't be surprised this time around if I'm 100% wrong!

1. Johnny Weir
2. Brian Joubert
3. Patrick Chan
4. Takahiko Kozuka
5. Jeremy Abbott
6. Tomas Verner

Oda did break the PJ Kwong's "mark of doom" , but it's possible that he was protected by the spirit of his ancestor in his native country. I'm curious to see if her future picks (or should I say "victims" ) will be home free from now on.

 

[Bennett]

You're not the only going CRAZY!!! This is my first time I've followed the GP circuit as well. My predictions for the men ranges from decent to very good throughout this rather unpredictable season, but my sixth sense is TOTALLY fried right now!!! *pulls out her hair* I'm getting all sorts of mixed signals, and I can't make any sense of it!!! :think: :scratch: One moment I have an idea of what the Top 6 will look like, but a second later it completely changes! :banging:

Could it have been even more difficult for you if Shawn were here?

ITA with the sentiment expressed by you guys. This year is so unpredictable. I am rooting for the most unpredictable one ever, Tomas, which makes it even more so for me. I have the best scenario for him in my head. But I guess it would be more "desire/wish" than "prediction."

 

[gopatrick]

I have sort of the same mixed feelings towards Patrick and Yu-Na: I don't want them to peak too soon, but I also want them to be unstoppable:think:
So I am going to let the math decide this time...

Men
1. Brian Joubert
2. Patrick Chan
3. Takahiko Kozuka
Johnny Weir, Tomas Verner, Jeremy Abbott

Ladies
1. Yu-Na Kim
2. Joannie Rochette
3. Mao Asada
Carolina Kostner, Yukari Nakano, Miki Ando

Pairs
1. Savchenko/Szolkowy
2. Zhang/Zhang
3. Pang/Tong
Kawaguci/Smirnov, Voloszohar/Morozov, Mukhortova/Trankov

Ice Dance
Delobel/Schoenfelder
Belbin/Agosto
Domnina/Shabalin
Faiella/Scali, Khoklova/Novitski, Davis/White

P.S. I luv Pj, she always inspired me to do my predictions. I am trying to predict independently this time.