Predictions

[#1Kerryfan]

DREAM PODIUMS.....

MEN (None of my favorites are there....):
1. Chan
2. Verner
3. Amodio
4. Kozuka
5. Oda
6. Takahashi

LADIES:
1. Czisny
2. Kostner
3. Flatt
4. Ando
5. Suzuki
6. Murakami

PAIRS:
1. S/ S
2. MT/ M
3. P/ T
4. B/ L
5. I/ M
6. S/ H

DANCE:
1. D/ W
2. C/ P
3. W/ P
4. H/ Z
5. P/ B
6. B/ S

 

[silverlake22]

One thing I do predict is almost certain to happen is Miki Ando winning the FS. She probably only needs 5 triples to do that but if she happens to do 6 she'll just win by a bigger margin.

 

[silverlake22]

This is an extremely low probability scenario, manly or not. Verner's best possible scores by this season's performance so far would put him in 2nd if everybody else does their probable absolute worst (combination of worst SP and worst LP). His clean LP is a long way off to pull him up from 4th or 5th in SP.

Placements for Kozuka, Takahashi and Oda are all within reasonable probability.



Assuming the the first 4 places have been decided, Amodio needs to beat Chan to be in 5th. He wouldn't do this by being a little nervous and making some mistakes because his best combination of both programs (229.38) is only 4 poinst higher than Chan's worst combination, with 3 falls in each program! 6 falls for Chan, not likely, in my very humble and unpopular opinion. Even then, he may count his jumps well like he did in SC rather than in COR. Nah, Amodio needs Chan to do two nice clean programs with URs and popped jumps instead.



Unfortunately so far judges seem to mark by the rules and the computer has been too insentive to comply with the wishes of some fans in its calculations. Nope, 4 falls wouldn't do it. There are other ways for him to sink to the bottom, just not by his usual mistakes.

If Verner changes his jump out of steps in the SP to a 3lo instead of a 3f to avoid getting the edge call, his score can be a few points higher, and I wouldn't be surprised if he did this. Also if he puts the quad in his FS and then skates like he did in Russia he can easily break 160 and that should be able to contend for gold or at least a medal. If he tries the quad and lands it, which it sounds like he's planning to, I can totally see him Joubert-ing his way to gold. PCS wise he's also not at much of a disadvantage, they will be lower than Takahashi and probably Chan so long as Chan doesn't completely tank, but should be around Oda and Kozuka just looking at the numbers from the men this season. I think the SP is key for Tomas, his FS score at COR is competitive, considering it's as high as Oda and Dai's highest FS scores this season which they earned with landing quads in those programs and he earned it without a quad.

Amodio's FS score at TEB was higher than Chan's at COR so I think he can beat Chan if Chan continues to fall so much. I wouldn't underestimate Amodio. He could even end up medaling here ala Johnny Weir last year depending on what the others do. His jumps are gorgeous and consistent and the only other men at this event who have been skating even close to their best so far this season are Verner and Kozuka.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

Hopes?

1. That Chan skates two clean programs.
2. That, barring that, Chan is off the podium if three skaters are better.
3. That, barring that, Chan skates to centre ice for his LP, and instead of skating, concentrates really hard on making the world turn. The judges are so impressed that he still scores high in PCS despite not actually moving for four-and-a-half minutes.

1. That Suzuki and Czisny skate clean.
2. That, barring that, Czisny skates clean.
3. That, barring that, Suzuki skates clean.

1. The Barazova/Larionov express themselves somehow at any point.
2. The Moore-towers/Moscovitch are clean
3. That the duel between Savchenko/Szolkowy and Pang/Tong doesn't peter out.

1. That Pechelat/Bourzat are not on the podium.
2. That, barring that, Davis/White reassert themselves at the top with two sterling skates.
3. That Weaver/Poje remind us not to consign them to the "third-masquerading-as-second" spot.
4. That Crone/Poirier win bronze (aka, both B/S and C/P are clean and C/P wins.)

 

[Layfan]

I'm not sure about Murakami either, hence why I said Dream Podiums . I think Oda will play spoiler here, it seems like most people have predicted he finishes OTP but he has those amazing jumps and could potentially win the event depending on what goes down. Even Amodio I think has a chance to medal, I mean he has been so on with his jumps this far this season and if the other men continue to make mistakes....who knows. You are probably right about Chan and if he skates well he totally deserves to medal, I was just trying to say that if he mops the ice with his butt again he probably doesn't deserve to be up there. I agree about Miki as a near lock for the podium but an interested to see what the judges think of her new SP - I tend to think anything will be an improvement from the old one but you never know with Morozov...

Oh, sorry I missed that it was what you were hoping for. Bummer - your predictions have been right on and I was really heartened by the idea you were predicting Alissa would be second

What do you think will happen if all the skaters do their absolute best?

I'm trying not to do dream podiums this year because I hate to "dream" of any skater coming last. But my dream, as always, is that all the skaters skate their best. And if that happens here is what I think:

1. Miki _ If she is perfectly on she should get +GOE on all her jumps
2. Alissa _ She doesn't have the most difficult jumps but she has a solid 3lutz2toe and that coupled with her superb spins, the best stretch and lyrical qualities in the competition should earn her her highest PCS of the night.
3. Akiko or Carolina. Nobody sells a program better than Akiko and if she is perfect I think the judges will not be able to resist. The judges also can never seem to resist Carolina so if she is perfect and if she lands her 3toe-3toe the judges will reward her.

I like Murakami and I think Rachael has really improved her presentation this year. I think both have an excellent shot at medalling - maybe even winning! However, I think that if Akiko and Carolina are perfect, it will be obvious how much more mature and musical their skating is than Murakami's and how more refined it is than Rachael's...

 

[silverlake22]

Oh, sorry I missed that it was what you were hoping for. Bummer - your predictions have been right on and I was really heartened by the idea you were predicting Alissa would be second

What do you think will happen if all the skaters do their absolute best?

I'm trying not to do dream podiums this year because I hate to "dream" of any skater coming last. But my dream, as always, is that all the skaters skate their best. And if that happens here is what I think:

1. Miki _ If she is perfectly on she should get +GOE on all her jumps
2. Alissa _ She doesn't have the most difficult jumps but she has a solid 3lutz2toe and that coupled with her superb spins, the best stretch and lyrical qualities in the competition should earn her her highest PCS of the night.
3. Akiko or Carolina. Nobody sells a program better than Akiko and if she is perfect I think the judges will not be able to resist. The judges also can never seem to resist Carolina so if she is perfect and if she lands her 3toe-3toe the judges will reward her.

I like Murakami and I think Rachael has really improved her presentation this year. I think both have an excellent shot at medalling - maybe even winning! However, I think that if Akiko and Carolina are perfect, it will be obvious how much more mature and musical their skating is than Murakami's and how more refined it is than Rachael's...

I'd say at their best:

1.) Kanako
2.) Alissa
3.) Miki
4.) Akiko
5.) Rachael
6.) Carolina (given her injury and limited jump content - could she do all her jumps she could easily be 1st)

 

[miki88]

I'd say at their best:

1.) Kanako
2.) Alissa
3.) Miki
4.) Akiko
5.) Rachael
6.) Carolina (given her injury and limited jump content - could she do all her jumps she could easily be 1st)

Hmm not sure if if everyone skates their best, Kanako will be first. She isn't immune to URs and I am not sure if they'll put her above Miki if both goes clean, considering Miki is still the veteran and her season has been good so far. I also think the judges will find someway to put Carolina on the podium if she skates clean.

 

[Layfan]

Hmm not sure if if everyone skates their best, Kanako will be first. She isn't immune to URs and I am not sure if they'll put her above Miki if both goes clean, considering Miki is still the veteran and her season has been good so far. I also think the judges will find someway to put Carolina on the podium if she skates clean.

I agree, Miki88. This is at their best and their best - I just don't think Kanako is the best in the field. She COULD be but not yet. And if Carolina does a 3toe-3toe and goes clean it will be enough of an excuse for the judges to put her on the podium....

 

[silverlake22]

I agree, Miki88. This is at their best and their best - I just don't think Kanako is the best in the field. She COULD be but not yet. And if Carolina does a 3toe-3toe and goes clean it will be enough of an excuse for the judges to put her on the podium....

Very true. I just meant that maybe a clean Kanako would make the judges goo-goo gaga over the "teenage starlet" and put her ahead of her teammates who are older and less exciting. Who knows. I do agree about Carolina though, not that she would deserve to be on the podium with her content, but the judges love her and usually Euro ladies are held to a lower standard jump wise anyway.

 

[kiz_4Ever]

Ladies

Ando
Flatt
Murakami
Kostner
Suzuki
Czisny


Men

Takahashi
Chan
Kozuka
Verner
Amodio
Oda

Pairs
Pang/Tong
Savchenko/Szolkowy
Bazarova/Larionov
Iliushechkina/Maisuradze
Sui/Han
Moore- Towers/Moscovitch

Dance

Davis/White
Pechalat/Bourzat
Crone/Poirier
Bobrova/Soloviev
Weaver/Poje
Hoffmann/Zavozin

 

[NMURA]

Very true. I just meant that maybe a clean Kanako would make the judges goo-goo gaga over the "teenage starlet" and put her ahead of her teammates who are older and less exciting.

That won't happen. Simply because Murakami's free program is beyond her capacities. Of course she can win IF she skates clean.

BTW Murakami is having the most attentions from the Japanese media. I agree they are investing on Murakami since Mao is not there. Even Takahashi is put on the back seat.

 

[pangtongfan]

I think if everyone skates their best it will be:

1. Suzuki
2. Czisny
3. Ando- doesnt even do the 3-3s anymore, nor have very high scoring non jump elements, nor is she getting really high PCS. I dont see why she would win if everyone skates their best, even with the pitiful womens field here.

 

[evangeline]

3. Ando- doesnt even do the 3-3s anymore, nor have very high scoring non jump elements, nor is she getting really high PCS. I dont see why she would win if everyone skates their best, even with the pitiful womens field here.

Reputation. Miki is a former world champion, which has some benefits. Miki is a fabulous person, but let's face it--even if her PCS is not sky-high, they're quite high for what she's doing on the ice. If Miki skates cleanly, she can and will score very high--like 2009 Worlds, for instance.

 

[pangtongfan]

Ando's PCS have been lower than Suzuki in 3 of her 4 program this years, despite that Suzuki keeps making mistakes Yes they have been too high for what she deserves but they still are lower than some others. Add to that that she isnt even doing the hardest jumps anymore, and her non jump elements arent going to score the highest, and she wont win if the others skate their best, even in this weak depleted field. At the 2009 Worlds she received huge PCS, higher than Rochette and Asada. Since she isnt going to get PCS like that anymore, especialy with her current programs, she wont be scoring that high here even if she does skate her best.

 

[Layfan]

Very true. I just meant that maybe a clean Kanako would make the judges goo-goo gaga over the "teenage starlet" and put her ahead of her teammates who are older and less exciting. Who knows. I do agree about Carolina though, not that she would deserve to be on the podium with her content, but the judges love her and usually Euro ladies are held to a lower standard jump wise anyway.

That could be very true and I'm a bit of a sucker for Kanako's effervescence myself... Personally, I hope the judges go gaga over a clean Alissa, too. Her skating maybe more introverted that Kanako's but it is much more elegant and refined.

Maybe I'm just asking for it - but you are always hoping Verner will win. So I get to hope Alissa will win.

 

[NMURA]

Ando's PCS have been lower than Suzuki in 3 of her 4 program this years, despite that Suzuki keeps making mistakes Yes they have been too high for what she deserves but they still are lower than some others. Add to that that she isnt even doing the hardest jumps anymore, and her non jump elements arent going to score the highest, and she wont win if the others skate their best, even in this weak depleted field. At the 2009 Worlds she received huge PCS, higher than Rochette and Asada. Since she isnt going to get PCS like that anymore, especialy with her current programs, she wont be scoring that high here even if she does skate her best.

I think the biggest reason of Ando's low PCS is very ineffective and unimpressive SP. The PCS of SP also affects FS. They changed the music and choreography. I also suppose some judges are afraid of Ando's consistency + high TES, and trying to make her look inferior to Suzuki. Nakano was "used" for that purpose two seasons ago.

 

[TCAngel18]

That could be very true and I'm a bit of a sucker for Kanako's effervescence myself... Personally, I hope the judges go gaga over a clean Alissa, too. Her skating maybe more introverted that Kanako's but it is much more elegant and refined.

Maybe I'm just asking for it - but you are always hoping Verner will win. So I get to hope Alissa will win.

ITA....I love Alyssa. Besides, Kanako's back position reminds me of Yulia Lavrenchuk, and that is NOT a good thing. She sacrifices line and posture for power. I have no clue how any of her jumps receive + GOE's because she has the ugliest line pre-jump and post-jump. Don't believe me, rewatch her SA SP. A lot can be said for spunk, but spunk can only take you so far....look at Alena Leonova.

btw here are my predictions:

Men:
1.Takahashi
2.Kozuka
3.Chan
4.Oda
5.Verner
6.Amodio

Women:
1.Ando
2.Czisny
3.Suzuki
4.Flatt
5.Murakami
6.Kostner

Pairs:
1.Savchenko/Szolkowy
2.Pang/Tong
3.Moore-Towers/Moscovitch
4.Bazarova/Larionov
5/6.Iliushechkina/Maisuradze
6/5.Sui/Han....both positions really do not matter to me, i just hope the russians place ahead of the chinese.

Ice Dance:
1.Davis/White
2.Pechalat/Bourzat
3.Bobrova/Soloviev
4.Crone/Poirier(not too high on them)
5.Weaver/Poje
6.Hoffman/Zavozin

 

[NMURA]

ITA....I love Alyssa. Besides, Kanako's back position reminds me of Yulia Lavrenchuk, and that is NOT a good thing. She sacrifices line and posture for power. I have no clue how any of her jumps receive + GOE's because she has the ugliest line pre-jump and post-jump. Don't believe me, rewatch her SA SP. A lot can be said for spunk, but spunk can only take you so far....look at Alena Leonova.

Murakami's jumps are clearly better than Leonova's. Her 3-3 is the easier version of Kim's (half sarcastically). Amazing speed and great distance, that's what the judges appreciate. "Ugly line" is not designated in the minus GOE criteria. They are considered when he/she is not a judges' pet. Anyone predicting Murakami's placements "objectively" should readjust one or two notches up.

 

[TCAngel18]

Murakami's jumps are clearly better than Leonova's. Her 3-3 is the easier version of Kim's (half sarcastically). Amazing speed and great distance, that's what the judges appreciate. "Ugly line" is not designated in the minus GOE criteria. They are considered when he/she is not a judges' pet. Anyone predicting Murakami's placements "objectively" should readjust one or two notches up.

Yeah, she has the height of Kim in the combo, but a landing position not unlike Jennifer Robinson, again NOT GOOD. Again, I do agree that Murakami's position should be readjusted up, but only because the judges seem to go bonkers over speed. It's kind of like saying Elena Liashenko would do great because she skated SO FAST...it should be about more than speed.

 

[museksk8r]

I gave my Predictions earlier.

Here are my Dreams:

Ladies
1. Kostner
2. Czisny
3. Suzuki
4. Ando
5. Murakami
6. Flatt

Men
1. Verner
2. Kozuka
3. Oda
4. Takahashi
5. Amodio
6. Chan

Pairs
1. S/S
2. I/M
3. B/L
4. M-T/M
5. P/T
6. S/H

Dance
1. D/W
2. C/P
3. P/B
4. B/S
5. W/P
6. H/Z