Raise The Senior Ladies Age To 17 Please!

[AxelLover]

If you raise the age of seniors, then all you'll do is further decrease the relevance of the seniors competition. Juniors will be the place where the "real" best singles skaters are found.

I agree with you to an extent. That's why I'm not really sure if I want the age for seniors to be raised. On one hand I think it would make sense and it would be the right thing to do. On the other hand, it would possibly make the junior events more interesting and exciting than senior events and that would look bad.

 

[Alegria]

On the other hand, it would possibly make the junior events more interesting and exciting than senior events and that would look bad.

I can't remember JGP or JWC being more popular then seniors tournaments.
For example, JWC in Zagreb. Trusove with quads, but almost no people on tribunes

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[zanadude]

I can't remember JGP or JWC being more popular then seniors tournaments.
For example, JWC in Zagreb. Trusove with quads, but almost no people on tribunes

No offense to the countries, but you're comparing figure skating tournaments in Poland and Slovakia with figure skating tournaments in Japan and America?

 

[Alegria]

No offense to the countries, but you're comparing figure skating tournaments in Poland and Slovakia with figure skating tournaments in Japan and America?

Sorry, what? It was a juniors world championship
And this is European championship in Ostrava. Feel the difference.

Ladies Free Skate 2017 European Figure Skating Championships Ostrava

Ladies Free Skate 2017 European Figure Skating Championships Ostrava

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Juniors tournaments are not that popular and never will be.

 

[lariko]

I think you are just saying that there are many more ladies than gentlemen who are interested in taking up the sport of figure skating.

No, there are actually quite a lot of men in figure skating. However, I looked up the last 3 world championships among junior men, and from the top 10 in each event only 4 achieved medals in seniors since 2018. That was not the case for women.

And, of those 4 men who achieved medals, all of them started seniors earlier than men normally do, at ages 16 and 17

 

[eppen]

Well, I wrote about this before, but I guess I can repeat it now. I did some work on the careers of single skaters. Started with Worlds medalists and then got crazy and did in the end all skaters who participated in the Worlds from 1947 to 2021. I took the ones with certain year of birth, looked at how old they were when they went to their first senior comp, if they got medals in major champioships (and how old they were then), if they won any majors (and how old) and then when they retired (and ofc at what age). Lots of other detail as well. Plus a bit on how the transition from junior to senior works. 600+ women and almost 500 men.

I divided them chronologically into two groups, 1993-4 as a semi-arbitrary cut-point. The reason for this are the changes in FS in general in the 1990s - 1990 saw the end of compulsory figures which had previously kept the young jumping beans from winning in their first big competitions. The strict amateur rules were removed by mid-1990s and skaters could do competitions and earn money skating shows at the same time which had not been possible before. And then the age limits were raised first from 12 to 14 and a bit later to 15.

Women

1) For the whole data set, all 600+ women, the age at the start of international career ranged from 11–26 years, the average being 16,2 years. The age at end of international career varied from 14–36 years, the average 21,3 years. Number of seasons varied from 1 to 15, average 5,3. Careers with 10 or more seasons numbered 65 - vast majority of these after 1994, 48.

2) For all skaters who began before 1994 (almost half of all), the overall ranges and averages apply for start, end, and number of seasons. The truly long careers were rare, the number of skaters with 7 or more seasons was 68 and those with only 1–3 seasons in international seniors was 88. Then I looked at those who won a medal and/or won a major championship. There were 83 medalists, of whom about half became champions (42). They started their international careers slightly younger (average 15,7 years) and ended it slightly older (average 21,7) with more seasons (6,1) than your average competetive skater. The champions started even younger - average 14,6 year, but ended at normal age (average 20,6) with about 6,5 seasons in seniors.

The medals came after 2-3 seasons in the seniors and the average age for this was 17, the first big win a season later at 18. Usually they medaled for 2-3 seasons (average 3,5). 39 medaled or won in their last season and then they quit competing and moved on. The only Oly winner to continue after her win was Katarina Witt, who came from DDR and could not start earning money in the pro circuit until after 1988.

3) For women who began 1994 or after (a bit less than half, those competing currently were not included), the average start age is 16,5 and they end at the age of 22 in average and skate for 5,9 seasons. The number of skaters with 8 or more seasons is 83 and those with only 1-3 seasons number 83. No huge differences here compared to the previous era.

The medalists and champions then, 49 and 25 respectively. Medalists start at the normal age, but skate ca. two seasons longer than the average skater. And like before, the future champions enter their senior careers a year younger and finish their careers slightly older with 8,3 seasons. From the first senior competition to the first medal it took 2-3 seasons just like before and the average age was 17. And the first big win came the next season at 18. The champs kept on skating and medaling for about 4 seasons in average. The skaters to continue competing after winning the Olympics were Sarah Hughes, Yuna Kim Adelina Sotnikova and Alina Zagitova.

I think the possibility of earning with skating whilst competing has resulted in longer careers in women. In addition, these girls often have 1-3 years of international juniors before they go senior which makes their careers even longer. But what is also clear is that the peak time for women is around 17-18 - this applied already for the previous group and has not changed since. And the good ones start earlier and end later than everyone else.

Men

1) All skaters (ca. 500) the age at start of international career ranged from 11–27 years, the average being 17,6 years. The end came at 14–36 years, the average being 23,9 years after 6,5 seasons in average. 85 skaters had 10 or more seasons 85, 34 before 1994 and 52 after.

2) Before 1994, the averages for the whole group apply, the average senior career began at 17 and ended at 23 after 6 seasons or so. Longish careers with 8 or more seaons were had by 76 guys and short ones (1-3 seasons) by 53.

The cream of the crop: medalists 34 and champions 21. And like with women, medalists started at the normal age and ended a year or so later with one more season under their belts. The champs started a year younger than the rest and ended a year later with about 8 seasons. The medalists took about 4 seasons to get to the first medal at about 21. The champs took only 3 seasons to medal at 19 years, but about 5 before the big wins at about 21 years. Dick Button continued to compete after his first Oly gold. Boitano and Petrenko came back for 1994.

3) Those who began 1994 or after (current ones excluded) start a little bit older than before at 18 and end also a year older at 24. The number of seasons is 6,9, a bit but not awful much longer than before. Skaters with long careers of 9 or more seasons number 53 and short ones 48.

There are 18 medalists and 21 champions, whose careers work similarly to the women. The medalists start at the normal age (18), but skate a bit later (26) with more seasons (8). The champs start earlier at 16 and end older at 26 with a staggering 10 seasons behind them in average. The first medals came after 3 seasons at around 21 years of age. For the champs it took only 2 seasons in seniors to get to medals and the first championships loomed around the corner the next season, ages 19 and 20. The number of seasons with medals was 2 for those who did not win and about 5 for champions. Urmanov, Plushenko and Hanyu have continued competing after their wins.

So, most of the trends are similar with women and men apart from guys being slightly older. The good ones start earlier and have longer careers. But what is different is that the average age for getting to the big wins is a little bit lower now than what it was before, though not much.

Juniors

This was tougher to do because junior competitions are not necessarily documented that well, especially for before 1990s. A lot of skaters started directly at seniors at a very young age because there were no age restrictions. So I took the participants in Junior worlds 1975-2020 and looked at what happened in their careers afterwards. There were four main possibilities: they had no senior career, they went on to compete in seniors but never got to the major championships level, they got to Europeans/4CC but never to the worlds, or they went all the way to the Worlds and/or Olympics.

About 40% of the girls go on to have a top level senior career in average. For the last 15 years, the data is so good that it was possible to establish that about 15% never have a senior career, 20% have a lower level one. Usually at least one of the medalists goes on to medal in a major senior competition and at least one of the non-medalists does the same.

About 50% of the boys go on to have a top level senior career in average. The other groups are about the same size as in women except for those who have no senior career which is less than 10% in men.

Only few of those who start skating get to the top of the pyramid...

I did not do any statistics on specifically the big nations but my gut feel is that there is more skaters from the US, Russia and Japan who can have really short or no senior careers. More skaters, more internal competition, no guarantees for getting to the international competitions.

But I would still like to emphasize the fact that the single skaters have now longer international careers than ever before, both women and men. The good ones especially. Whatever seems to be happening in the women at the moment cannot be taken as the "new normal" because they represent a very small fraction of them all and only time will tell if this is something that continues. For the past 70 years, women have been peaking around 17-18 years with or without age restrictions.

E

 

[moonvine]

thank you for the information about Russia.

As much as I would love for “I Tonya” to signify some greater interest in figure skating, sadly it is not the case. It is the case that the scandal will always interest the general public.

The difference between the US and Russia as I see it now, and I could be very wrong because I do not know what is happening in Russia except what I read here on GS, is that elite figure skaters in Russia have at least a chance to become popular, to become well-known to the general public, to appear on TV, to do shows, and to make some money.

That is not happening in the United States and has not happened for 25 years. No figure skater is going to become a millionaire due to figure skating, no matter how elite. In fact, no figure skater is even going to make a consistent good living, based solely on figure skating. So there is much more financial incentive in other countries to excel, as there is no incentive here.

I think Adam has probably done pretty well for himself. But I think that has as much or more to do with him being Adam than his skating. DWTS is a decent paycheck. Then there was a book and he’s working on a tv show. But the country wouldn’t have known who he was without figure skating.

 

[el henry]

I think Adam has probably done pretty well for himself. But I think that has as much or more to do with him being Adam than his skating. DWTS is a decent paycheck. Then there was a book and he’s working on a tv show. But the country wouldn’t have known who he was without figure skating.

Yes, that is true. In addition, Johnny and Tara are probably making a decent living as well. But even with J&T, it has little to do now with figure skating (even though we know, and/or love or hate J &T's figure skating commentary, I was surprised how many people know them who have never watched a skating comp ever).

I was thinking more of love and adoration for skaters who have brought glory and gold to the US of A (of course Americans don't think that way about figure skating, IME) and jumped many quads and done whatever. You have to have something else going on. Skating success alone doesn't do it, although it can be the springboard.

 

[Mauvedreamer]

Yes, that is true. In addition, Johnny and Tara are probably making a decent living as well. But even with J&T, it has little to do now with figure skating (even though we know, and/or love or hate J &T's figure skating commentary, I was surprised how many people know them who have never watched a skating comp ever).

I was thinking more of love and adoration for skaters who have brought glory and gold to the US of A (of course Americans don't think that way about figure skating, IME) and jumped many quads and done whatever. You have to have something else going on. Skating success alone doesn't do it, although it can be the springboard.

Johnny gets my vote as he loves The Russian ladies and his Russian is better than mine. God I love Johnny without Tara though

 

[lariko]

I agree with you to an extent. That's why I'm not really sure if I want the age for seniors to be raised. On one hand I think it would make sense and it would be the right thing to do. On the other hand, it would possibly make the junior events more interesting and exciting than senior events and that would look bad.

For me they already are, particularly JGP, but I am okay if other people don’t catch onto that for a while, because I hope to be able to get best skating live at bargain basement prices once travelling is a thing again. I was planning to got to Sophia this year, but oh, well… thing is, skaters from small feds do both, and big feds field out amazing guys who might not get ahead in the seniors. and there is always someone new and fun. Judging is by far more aligned with reality, because nobody shows up with a Mantle of Glory Protection +10.

 

[el henry]

Johnny gets my vote as he loves The Russian ladies and his Russian is better than mine. God I love Johnny without Tara though

Poor Tara: I don't think anyone loves her.

When it comes to skating commentary, Johnny has improved in my opinion. I don't watch the ladies enough to know his commentary there, but his words on Jason, particularly after Sinnerman (paraphrasing): "What he does is just so so hard and so athletic and let's not underestimate that. There is no one like him in skating today" So now I'm on Team Johnny. (And learning another language is always a plus). ETA: and to be fair to Tara, (paraphrasing), "Masterpiece. Chills. I can't stop watching". So she's cool too.

I was just trying to point out that in the US, Johnny and Tara are not known mostly for their skating commentary. They are known for the dog show, the Kentucky Derby, everything else they do. I have met people who were shocked that they do skating commentary.

They have a completely different brand now

 

[vorravorra]

Maybe I am not reading the points system correctly, but without Eu/World, even if Mozalev does well in Zagreb, his points ranking will drop into 30ish, because whoever does well in juniors and everyone who gets points for Eu/4CC/Worlds will be ahead, and his JWC will no longer counts. If he is out of 24, he doesn’t have GP.

That depends on where his SB ends up and who retires. The one who isn't going to get any GP spots by how the things are currently going is Danielian. He'll have to work his way up next season. But he has that chance, if he was a Russian woman he would be unlikely to come back after one missed season and one failed one. There are too many who don't miss and don't fail. People are currently doubtful about Usacheva's ability to come back and she didn't even miss the start of the season. There are just too many girls with ultra-c which she doesn't have.

 

[eppen]

Jumps and injuries have been among the arguments for raising the age limit for girls. They're doing it very young and we are also seeing them at the top right off the juniors at 15 years or so. It has also been argued that this is not relevant for boys, as the tendency has been for them to get the quads later, usually closer to 20 or even after that.

However, now that I am kind of up to date in my book keeping in men's quads and who jumps them, a couple of preliminary observations on what is going on at the moment. This fall has still been unusual as many competitions have been cancelled and all, but so far I have been able to find 985 quad attempts (have not included obviously popped ones) in national and international competitions - we will get over 1000 by the end of the year bcs the Russian and Japanese nationals will easily get those 15 jumps done... As a comparison some earlier numbers: the last full fall season 2019-20 produced a louzy 805 jumps, 2018-9 695, 2017-8 847 (note the Olympic peak?), 2016-7 561, 2015-6 508, 2014-5 394, 2013-4 342. Although there is less data available for nationals and smaller competitions the further back in time you go, but the number of skaters doing quads is also lower back in the day, so the overall numbers represent the whole situation probably ok.

My list of quadsters has now 375 names - this is the all time one. And about 170 of these are skating currently! And of these guys, about 99 have been born in 2000 or later, some 50 in the late 1990s. Those born in 2005 or later number about 30 - the youngest was born in 2009. It would look like the tendency is towards boys also getting on with the big jumps very early, especially in Russia, but the US and Japan are following the trend. The difference to the 15-year old girls is though, that none of the guys at that same age gets anywhere near the overall general skating quality and skills as the best girls do. But that does not mean the boys are not jumping.

The quadster, both men or women, represent a very small elite group among all competetive skaters even now when it is more common than ever before...

E

 

[Mauvedreamer]

Poor Tara: I don't think anyone loves her.

When it comes to skating commentary, Johnny has improved in my opinion. I don't watch the ladies enough to know his commentary there, but his words on Jason, particularly after Sinnerman (paraphrasing): "What he does is just so so hard and so athletic and let's not underestimate that. There is no one like him in skating today" So now I'm on Team Johnny. (And learning another language is always a plus). ETA: and to be fair to Tara, (paraphrasing), "Masterpiece. Chills. I can't stop watching". So she's cool too.

I was just trying to point out that in the US, Johnny and Tara are not known mostly for their skating commentary. They are known for the dog show, the Kentucky Derby, everything else they do. I have met people who were shocked that they do skating commentary.

They have a completely different brand now

Oh really I wouldn't know tbh. Lol ... interesting.. i think all commentary is subject to our own perspective. Thanks for the info .

 

[Scott512]

Every time I post this I get attacked but this is ridiculous. I'm watching Cup of Russia and these two 15yos are doing triple axels and quads with arms over their heads. Here's my problem. What happens is these girls come to the surface, with their tricks and snatch world and Olympic medals from ladies that have devoted years to the sport. Then they hit a growth spurt and retire OR can't do the tricks anymore and fall down the leaderboards. Skaters like Elizabeth Tuktamushava, Wakabi Haguchi, Bradie Tennell and Karen Chen have worked hard and if these 15yos come in snatch the medals and bounce, where's the fairness in that? How are they senior when they're bodies aren't fully developed? I didn't like it when Tara Lipinski won in 1998 and bounced to be honest. Insert hateful comment below.

Girls mature faster than boys as we all know so what are you going to raise the men's age limit to 20? An age limit of 20 for the men means Yuzu would not have won Sochi 2014 Olympics.

Karen as lovely a skater as she is doesn't even do a 3 - 3. Not being able to do the ultra jumps is one thing not being able to do a 3 - 3 is another.

16 for the lady's and 19 for the men with no stupid July 1st birthday BS. But I won't go higher than that.

 

[Amei]

Girls mature faster than boys as we all know so what are you going to raise the men's age limit to 20? An age limit of 20 for the men means Yuzu would not have won Sochi 2014 Olympics.

Karen as lovely a skater as she is doesn't even do a 3 - 3. Not being able to do the ultra jumps is one thing not being able to do a 3 - 3 is another.

16 for the lady's and 19 for the men with no stupid July 1st birthday BS. But I won't go higher than that.

July 1st happens because the official ISU season starts on that day, its not stupid. Even if they did it on January 1st there would still be people whining about the poor luck of the people born on December 26th, additionally it would be mid-season for them.

 

[wakuwaku]

It's interesting to note how people became so used to constantly arguing about age limit that noone even doubts whether the limit is needed in the first place. Like they accepted by default that the problem exists and the rule should fix that and protect them from consequences. I think it can be useful to view this matter from other angle though. And indeed - is it even a problem? What consequences they fear so much?
To understand exactly from what consequences any rule is protecting us and why it's even needed - the most straight way would be to imagine what would happen now if that rule wouldn't exist at all, right? If there wasn't any age limit at all - who would be affected and what discipline? Only one discipline - woman, and only country - Russia. All other countries just don't have strong enough juniors to make any competition for their senior leaders - first, and they are allowing to participate in their nationals pre-senior skaters even with existing limit anyway - which isn't challenging their current senior leaders - second. But even in Russia the only strong enough junior to challenge senior leaders in woman is only one skater - Sofia Akatieva (who is currently prohibited to participate in RusNat). All other juniors (Samodelkina, Muravieva etc.) are just not strong enough. But even for Akatieva is highly unlikely to get the podium place at RusNat - her SB is on par with four best Russian seniors but she would be limited in PCS there.
In the end - even without any age limit - nothing would changed. The same people in every country would be attending OG/WC. Which begs for questions - why current age limit is/was needed in first place and from what consequences it protects/protected us? Who is/was benefitting from it and why?
All I can see is that the rule is creating artificial obstacles for talented skaters and create artificial discrimination based on date of birth and whether you are lucky to get on OG at your more competitive age - or at the age you would have much less chances to win (in woman discipline). It's true for any age limit - 15, 17 or 21. For younger people it's just easier and there always will be unlucky ones with bad date of birth. Without the rule that discrimination wouldn't be so evident. Still, some presumable abundance of too young skaters at main competitions wouldn't be possible as well. As I said above - there is natural progression of skaters strength with age - and its peak is not junior age currently. The peak was skewed towards juniors couple of seasons when technical revolution was occuring in women - but now it started to return to normal balanced state.
One can say the age rule is protecting young skaters from adult competition stress or preserving their health - but it's really weak argument. As I said above - most countries currently are encouraging participation of skaters of any age in their main national competitions as long as they strong enough. And whether juniors are competing with seniors or other juniors - they still will be competing - nationally or internationally. Actually, juniors are having even more competitions than seniors - and therefore actual need for training complex jumps to win always will be there. Well, without age limit couple of seasons ago Alysa Liu would be able to attend Worlds instead of Junior Worlds. Is it forced her to jump even more quads than she tried at JWC? I doubt it ) Would it ruin WC for viewers if instead of one of American seniors there would be Alysa Liu? I doubt it as well )
And that's all it would change for only couple of strongest countries. Other countries wouldn't felt it at all. Again - why the rule is existing and why there is need to make it even more limiting if nothing would change even with canceling it now? It seems to me very artificial and shallow rule not fixing anything, tbh - and its existing is justified by false problem as well. I believe the natural age limit is enough - when too young skater is just unable to show strong enough results to claim spot in national team. Laws of nature are most natural limit in sport.

 

[Arbitrary]

Raising the age limit would also lead to many bogus documents (birth certs, IDs) used to push needed sportpersons above the limit.

 

[Scott512]

Raising the age limit would also lead to many bogus documents (birth certs, IDs) used to push needed sportpersons above the limit.

They've done it in baseball for decades.

 

[Amei]

Raising the age limit would also lead to many bogus documents (birth certs, IDs) used to push needed sportpersons above the limit.

IMO with social media i think it would be very difficult to that