Senior Ladies pre-event discussion

[Sylvia]

I've copied/quoted these relevant posts below from the "Where would Caroline have been?" thread in the Grand Prix Final forum to kick off a U.S. Nationals Senior Ladies pre-event discussion.

Actually, for similar reasons, I wonder about Mirai and Rachael's senior debut at National's. They've done well at the junior level (though both have gotten downgrades this season), but they have little time to train their senior LP's between JGPF and National's. They didn't even get to put their senior programs out there in sectionals/regionals because of the byes. If seniors returning to junior worlds at the end of the season have mostly failed to adapt, what does it mean for juniors who throw together a senior program after competing their junior programs all season?

Rachael and Mirai will have had the 6 weeks between the JGPF and Nationals to practice their Senior programs exclusively. Both of them competed and won with their Senior programs during the summer: Rachael at Broadmoor and Liberty, Mirai at the LA Open.

The differences between the Junior and Senior programs aren't that great. The Juniors had to do a 3L in the SP rather than a choice of jumps, and the FS has one extra spin. Mirai has experienced some problems with underrotating her flip during the JGP, but Rachael has landed both lutz and flip cleanly.

Rachael Flatt will be a second year senior at Nationals. And remember that she competed her Senior SP at the Japan Invitational team event in September (and then went straight to Chemnitz, Germany for her 2nd JGP).

How's her senior SP different from the junior SP? A different solo triple? At least she doesn't have to change the choreography or overall layout very much there.

You're right, Rachael already has some senior experience -- she competed as a senior all of last season, actually, having to qualify to get to National's. I guess there are three factors that may affect an athlete's first senior's:
1) comfort/confidence skating with other senior ladies and in front of the senior judges, and having more media attention, etc.
2) familiarity with the senior program, since both the SP and LP are different (though the SP is only minorly different)
3) reputation with the judges

I think Rachael's previous senior experience would help her with 1) and 3) but not 2).

On the other hand, as a first-year senior with nothing on the line (no world's, no 4CC), they can skate without much pressure or expectation. I suppose Rachael would love to go to her first JW (and win it too! she got close to beating Mirai at JGPF). Mirai would love to best Caroline at both National's and JW. And Caroline would probably like to go into record as the first double JW champion. But it's unlikely that anyone could beat these three for the JW team -- so not much pressure there. I guess only trouble is if Ashley Wagner doesn't qualify for WC, and then she'd be looking to go back to JW as well. But OTOH, if Ashley can't beat one of Emily and Alissa, then she's also unlikely to beat one of Caroline, Mirai, and Rachael.

Ashley could finish 6th and still go to Worlds, if 3 of those who finish above her aren't age-eligible. I don't envision Alissa and Bebe beating Ashley at Nationals, although ice is slippery and anything can happen.

 

[Mathman]

First and foremost, how will Kimmie perform? I don't think the judges will hold her up if she her doesn't deliver. She will get relatively high PCSs on the basis of her overall skating skills, but other than that, I think she will get only what she earns.

INHO the judges will inflate her scores only if she has clearly won the contest anyway (if she gets first in the SP and is skating last in the LP), to give her a boost heading into Worlds.

If Caroline Zhang, Mirai Nagasu, and Rachael Flatt happen to skate the best, what would USFS gain by pretending that they hadn't? Will the ISU judges at Worlds be fooled by seeing inflated scores coming out of U.S. Nationals?

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

The USFS wants 3 skaters in the Worlds and Olys. For 2008 Worlds where some excellent skaters have an age problem, it has to be , imo, Ashley Wagner to be selected whether she is on the podium or not. She's cool under fire, and will deliver the points needed for Hollywood and Vancouver.

I hope she doesn't feel this pressure.

Joe

 

[Mathman]

If the top two U.S. ladies are Kimmie and Ashley (Caroline, Mirai, and Rachael being too young), it will have to be something like Kimmie 4th and Ashley 9th at Worlds, to get three places next year.

However, USFS won't have to juggle the standings at U.S. Nationals. Just go down the list until you get to the top three that are eligible.

 

[ChrisH]

On the other hand, as a first-year senior with nothing on the line (no world's, no 4CC), they can skate without much pressure or expectation. I suppose Rachael would love to go to her first JW (and win it too! she got close to beating Mirai at JGPF). Mirai would love to best Caroline at both National's and JW. And Caroline would probably like to go into record as the first double JW champion. But it's unlikely that anyone could beat these three for the JW team -- so not much pressure there. I guess only trouble is if Ashley Wagner doesn't qualify for WC, and then she'd be looking to go back to JW as well. But OTOH, if Ashley can't beat one of Emily and Alissa, then she's also unlikely to beat one of Caroline, Mirai, and Rachael.

Funny that making the WC team siphons off some of the pressure for making the JWC team.

You're probably right, but Emily did beat Ashley on TES and PCS at Skate Canada. Alissa had the biggest improvement from her 1st event to her 2nd event of all the ladies. Liang is still a threat and Katrina Hacker may be a threat.

As for the JWC, Mirai came out of nowhere last year to win jr. nats and to finish 2nd at JWC. The only indication was a 151.77 score in regional qualifying. I saw a few 150+ scores in this season's regional and sectional qualifying. I doubt that any of them are 13 year old prodigies, however. Angela Maxwell is 15. Katrina Hacker and Brittney Rizo also scored over 150. Hacker did so twice, although she may not be age eligible for the JWC. There were a few more 145+ scores. Of the other JGP finalists, Kristine Musademba may be a threat. I don't know. Depends what you mean by much pressure.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

You're probably right, but Emily did beat Ashley on TES and PCS at Skate Canada. Alissa had the biggest improvement from her 1st event to her 2nd event of all the ladies. Liang is still a threat and Katrina Hacker may be a threat.

I don't think using the last time one competed as the gauge for predictions. Johnny beat out Evan in two GPs before losing to him in the GPF. Does that tell anyone who will be ahead at US Nats? What one should look at is how talented is the skater you are considering as better than another.

Ashley is, for me, a stronger skater than Emily. Her comeback from SP to LP in Paris, showed me this gal can rise to the occasion. Nothing to do with favorites.

While I would love to see Bebe win the Nats, and she is capable of doing so, I do not have the trust that she will be able to continue in a winning mode. I checked out Hacker at the Kerrigan site and she is very promising.

Joe

 

[chuckm]

Katrina Hacker is age-eligible for both Senior and Junior Worlds. She skated beautifully at both NE Regionals and Eastern Sectionals. However, she does not have the lutz or the flip. Here was her jump content at Sectionals:

3T+2T+2L
3S+2L
3L
3T
3S
2A
2A+2T

She has mostly level4 spins.

Two clean programs might put her on the podium at Nationals, but her jump content probably would not place her high at Worlds (although she has no fear of edge calls!).



I agree that Ashley Wagner is extremely promising. She was held back on the PCS scores to some extent in her first GP event, the way most newcomers (to the Senior GP) are, and maybe still a little in the second.

I think she would have a decent shot at the top 10 at Worlds and hope to see her on the Nationals podium.

 

[Tonichelle]

pffft forget Kimmie and Caroline and Rachel and Mirai... WAGNER FOR GOLD!

 

[visaliakid]

pffft forget Kimmie and Caroline and Rachel and Mirai... WAGNER FOR GOLD!

Sorry to say... there will be no forgeting Kimmie, Caroline, Rachel or Mirai. Ashley may well wind up on the podium, but the others have just as great a shot for top four.

It would not surprise me to see:

1. Caroline
2. Ashley
3. Mirai
4. Kimmie
5. Rachel

Not saying that is going to be the finish, but such a finish is not out of the question the way performances have been this season.

 

[Tonichelle]

I still cant see the USFSA giving the top rank to a skater who cannot participate in the World Championships...

 

[visaliakid]

This is not about GIVING the top spot to anyone! It's about who the judges believe EARNED the top spot via their skating. If not, then why the heck even bother to hold a national championship! :disapp:

 

[ChrisH]

Thanks for the information about Katrina Hacker.

Ashley appears to be slightly more talented than Emily. I too have concerns about Emily's school load and her physical size but until Ashley beats her in competition, Emily has to be considered the stronger skater as of now, IMO.

What makes Ashley more talented in my eyes is her jumps, specifically her greater potential to do a triple-triple. She doesn't have a fall in her last three events, which is better than any of the other medal contenders can say. Except for her free skate at the Trophee Eric Bompard, Ashley has sacrificed points so that she could do a 3Lo, 3S, and a 3T in order to do 5 different triples. When she tacks on a 2Lo to her bigger jumps, she keeps her free leg high enough so that it doesn't brush the ice. There must also be some potential for her "presentation" skills, otherwise I imagine Joesitz wouldn't rate her so highly.

Jump-wise, Ashley's biggest problems are the 3Lz and bridging the big gap to a 3Lo combo. She had four falls last season, all of them on the 3Lz. All her 3Lz's this season have gotten wrong edge calls. She stuck with a 3T+3T sequence (perhaps it was a combo, but juniors weren't allowed to do 3-3 combos?) all through last season and she nailed it at World Juniors. She tried a 3Lz+3Lo in the short program at Skate Canada. The 3Lo wasn't close on rotations and was downgraded. Her 3Lz though, had good height and she didn't brush the ice on the transition into the 3Lo. She might be able to tradeoff the latter to complete the rotations on the 3Lo. It would've been wiser to train for the 3F+3T combo in the off-season, especially given Ashley's 2006-2007 season record. And strategy-wise, there is lot more room for error with the toe-loop combos than with the loop combos. That is especially important in the short program, as Asada has shown. So even if Ashley gets the 3Lo combo fully rotated this season, she might develop short program and two-footing problems.

 

[feraina]

Ashley appears to be slightly more talented than Emily. I too have concerns about Emily's school load and her physical size but until Ashley beats her in competition, Emily has to be considered the stronger skater as of now, IMO.

What makes Ashley more talented in my eyes is her jumps, specifically her greater potential to do a triple-triple.

ITA with everything you said above.

Emily is not to be under-estimated, she really has that fighter spirit and maximizes what talent she does have. I also feel Ashley is more talented, especially in the jumps' department, PLUS she shares Emily's fighter spirit. That extra talent Ashley has though, is counter-balanced by Emily's experience. Even at TEB, Ashley looked kinda inexperienced. She still has awkward transitions from one move to the next, something junior skaters are more prone to doing. Her 3flutz is also one of the worst in the business, she's going to have to do something about that (just as Caroline needs to fix hers). Emily has an enviable (or maddening, depending on your perspective) ability to "sell" her programs. She looks so happy and victorious landing her barely-rotated jumps that the audience almost can't help getting to their feet and clapping for her as though she's the champion.

She stuck with a 3T+3T sequence (perhaps it was a combo, but juniors weren't allowed to do 3-3 combos?) all through last season and she nailed it at World Juniors.

I think she was unable to. Yu-na Kim won her JGPF and JW titles with 3-3's. Same reason why Joannie does a 3T-3S sequence -- it's easier, hence the 20% deduction from a full combo value.

 

[Tonichelle]

This is not about GIVING the top spot to anyone! It's about who the judges believe EARNED the top spot via their skating. If not, then why the heck even bother to hold a national championship! :disapp:

well in a perfect world that would be how it would work... but if one of the worlds eligible girls stays on her feet I wouldn't be surprised if they were put up over the girls who cannot yet participate in worlds...

what sort of message does that send to the international community - our best is a little girl who can't come to play, so here's our second, third, and fourth best (if even that!)

 

[gkelly]

She stuck with a 3T+3T sequence (perhaps it was a combo, but juniors weren't allowed to do 3-3 combos?)

Juniors are allowed to do 3-3 combos in the long program. The first one done by a female skater was 3T+3T by Midori Ito as a junior ca. 1982.

Last year was the first year that junior ladies were allowed to do 3-3 in the short program.

 

[feraina]

what sort of message does that send to the international community - our best is a little girl who can't come to play, so here's our second, third, and fourth best (if even that!)

And what sort of message does it send to the rest of the world -- hey, look, our underage skaters are clearly better than our veterans, but we manipulated the scores of the veterans so that they came out victorious, you should really trust the quality of our "top" skaters?

I think there's no doubt that National's (not just in the US) inflates scores relative to int'l scoring, but how often are scores manipulated to affect the relative ordering?

Not downgrading Kimmie's 3-3 in the SP last season seemed like a major oversight (and she would've lost the title to Emily). I don't think they'll repeat it again, given the increased under-rotation of Kimmie's 3T, the repeated downgrading in international competitions, and the backlash from last year's incident. The placing of Evan over Johnny in the SP, well, that was rather close anyway. Johnny had better artistry, Evan had better speed as well as a harder footwork sequence. Artistry without speed isn't generously rewarded under COP, and Johnny was skating slower all of last season (his spins were slow too).

Can people think of obvious examples from previous National's?

ETA: Kimmie's 3Lz-3T was ratified in the LP both at SA (-.2 GOE) and at TEB (+1 GOE). So it doesn't seem entirely crazy that it was also ratified at National's -- a combination of the UR calling being less strict last year and Kimmie's jumps being better, I think. This season, Kimmie's 3-3 has not been ratified once, I think it would be very hard for the National's tech panel to ratify her 3-3. Also, IIRC, her 3-3 was downgraded in the LP at '07 Natioanl's, wasn't it?

 

[Tonichelle]

I'm not arguing that it's RIGHT... but it's not like they don't already hold back some while elevating others...

 

[chuckm]

Some of Caroline's, Ashley's and Rachael's 3/3s have been downgraded this year, and Mirai doesn't have a 3/3 and she has been dinged for underrotating her flip. Emily doesn't have a 3/3, but her 3F and 3Z have been dinged for underrotation. So I'm not sure that the US judges are going to be any more lenient with the other ladies' 3/3s and underrotations than they are with Kimmie's.

And yes, Kimmie lips, but Caroline and Ashley flutz.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

And yes, Kimmie lips, but Caroline and Ashley flutz.

And how much deductions are taken for those wrong edge errors?

Joe

 

[chuckm]

Flutz and Lip deductions can run anywhere from 1.00 to 1.80. The -GOE is supposed to be applied according to severity, but looking at the protocols, it's pretty clear that each judge applies the -GOE based on whether he/she wants to promote or demote the skater. I have seen -1, -2 and -3 taken off by various judges for both flutz and lip.