Skaters Comment of COP

[Longhornliz]

I thought it was interesting fluff when the skaters were asked about their opinions of the new COP... I almost fell out of my chair when Johnny Weir said something along the lines of "I'm just not that interested in it, and I'll skate how I want to skate damn it"

He bugs me a little. But I like to watch him skate!

 

[SailorGalaxia518]

I know I just like the fact that he just wants to do his own thing. What a fun skater to watch.


Did anybody like the fluff piece of him going shopping???

 

[Mathman]

I can see why Johnny and Sasha Cohen are such good friends. They should do a piece on them going shopping together.

So, what do you think? Can Johnny with a quad beat Plushenko?

MM

 

[SailorGalaxia518]

Well, Plushenko has a disadvantage because he has really limited his competitions. Mainly just focusing on worlds and the olympics. He will have no idea what to expect from Johnny Weir (unless he still competes in Cup of Russia) or even the entire U.S. men's team. I call it "competing blind". He will see skater like Brian Joubert considering he has to compete at Europeans in order to qualify to worlds. I just wished that he had the surgery. It's such a shame that he is not competing so much this season.

 

[soogar]

Well with this system, Plush can just watch Johnny on TV and know what he needs to improve in his skating. I'm pretty sure that Plush knows how Johnny skates. It's not as though he lives in a bubble.

I don't think Johnny can beat Plush.... yet. I think Johnny or Timmy can upset Plush for the Olympics.

 

[Rgirl]

....Did anybody like the fluff piece of [Weir] going shopping???

I give props to ESPN for giving equal time to Johnny's shopping with the bits at Skate Canada about Ferreira's girlfriend and Jahnke being married:agree:.

And I LOVE Johnny's skating and program. Boy, did he ever go from 0 to 60 in a short time considering the "deer-in-the-headlights" Weir we saw in '03. If he can get the quad consistently -- YOWZA!

Re: Goebel: Can anybody tell from the scores if the judges completely discounted his second three-jump combo? After what happened to Plushenko at last year's GPF you'd think both skaters and coaches would go over the COP with a fine tooth comb. But it was wonderful to see Tim looking good and skating great.
Rgirl

 

[Mathman]

Tim got a flat 0.00 for his second three-jump combo.

But one judge gave him a +1 GOE and one judge gave him a -1 GOE. I think those might have been key-punch errors.

If he had left off the last 2-loop, he would have got 7.3 points, plus a 10% bonus, for a 3A/2T combo.

(Still not enough to catch Johnny, who blew the roof off the sucker.)

Mathman

 

[dorispulaski]

TIm was second to last to skate. I wonder whether he threw the 3/2/2 at the end to find out whether he could do it in the last minute of the skate, where it would draw the 1.1 extra credit. Tim is still ironing out what jumps he can and can't land where in his program. Even without the this combo, he was well ahead of Dambier, so it was a good time to experiment, if he happened to think of it.

 

[Doggygirl]

My general impression...

...of the commentators is that they generally know what skaters are planning. I assume that's from watching practices at the comp, or maybe from "pre-TV" planning - whichever.

I did not get the impression that Tim's second 3 jump combo was planned. While my WOW over Johnny's skate has overshadowed my comments about others, I will say I was thrilled for Tim!! If he felt the energy to do that jump combo at the end of his program, good for him even though it didn't count. I hope our quad king is back!! While his jump-ability is amazing to me, I also think he has made great strides in the presentation department. While he will probably never be an Emanuel, or a Johnny, or any of the guys who are known for superb presentation, I think he's come a LONG way over the last few years, even without having much of a competitive season last year. He seemed much more mature and solid in his presence to my untrained eye.

So far, the advent of COP has made these comps much more interesting to watch IMO. While jumps are given significant credit under this system, jumps don't seem to be the "end run" of the game anymore. As a selfish viewer, I'm likin' it.

DG

 

[dorispulaski]

Johnny better get ready to throw his quad.

I was amusing myself this afternoon by watching Tim's program and trying to figure out what he can do to pass Johnny Weir.

And here it is! I assume that any change Tim makes in spins and steps, Johnny can easily and quickly go one up with, so I leave both their levels unchanged.
Tim's GOE's are uniformly between 0 and 1, so they can be ignored. I am going to assume that his GOE's would be slightly less on the harder tricks, except of course the 3lz2t.

I am assuming that both skate well, and land all their stuff.

In SP change 4t/2t to 4t/3t. This adds 2.7

In LP, change 4t/25 to 4t/35. Adds another 2.7

change initial 3S to 4S Adds 5

change 2A to 4t. Adds 5.7

Leave the 2lp off the 3lz combo. Adds 8.
(this includes a 1.1 multiplier, because it is at the end of the program.

If we total this all up, Tim Goebel can score approximately an additional 24.1, which is enough to do the trick, without doing any skills that he couldn't do in March of 2003, or hasn't acquired since. The biggest trick will be the 4S-he hasn't done one in over a year.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I do not believe Johnny could beat Plush even with two quads. Although, I do not like Plush's mugging style, he does that well. Johnny, has a budding lyrical style that needs some drama in it. However, Johnny is far ahead of Brian in having a style. How healthy, Stephane and Ilia (both with great styles) are, will be very important in the podium places. You can name your own 6th skater for the last group to skate.

Joe

 

[Doggygirl]

Interesting analysis Doris!

I have to think the ability to analyze this sort of thing gives the skaters a much greater feeling of control competitively. A strong jumper like Tim can really figure out what he will likely need to have strong potential for a top placement. I really am beginning to wonder if folks like Kwan / Plush are in some way disadvantaging themselves by not putting their programs out there under the COP.

I am skeptical that JW (or anyone else) could win gold with a quadless program when the full field of jumpers is present. Especially when folks like Tim and Plush have the potential for multiple quads / quad triples. I think it was Mathman who did some analysis on another thread clearly demonstrating that jumps remain significantly weighted under COP.

Anyone up for this type of analysis? I'm curious about how a triple jump with added difficulty (i.e. JW's entrance to his 3 Lutz, or Ryan's entrance + tano lutz) compare point wise to say, a basic quad. How realistic would it be for skaters like JW or Emanual to focus on spectacular triples (upping points for entrances, etc.) as opposed to crossing fingers over a basic quad?

At least picking through the COP possibilities gives us something to do while we miss all the short programs this year!

DG

 

[soogar]

Well Plush has already put programs out there under COP (though he is slated for CoR) so I doubt the fact that he's not putting them out there this year will hurt him very much. Plush has a huge advantage under this system b/c he has the requisite jumps and jump technique to really bury the competition in terms of points. Plus whether you like Plush's mugging style or not , Plush is a very powerful skater and does his footwork with a lot of speed. He's also a decent spinner and does achieve a variety of positions in his spins.

I also think that Tim is going to do very well under this system as well. Now he has definite criteria to shoot for rather than an arbitrary presentation mark he can work on the elements that he feels will give him the highest yield of points. While his posture will never rival Johnny's, he can make up a lot of ground in spins and footwork in addition to his fabulous jumps.

 

[Mathman]

Anyone up for this type of analysis? I'm curious about how a triple jump with added difficulty (i.e. JW's entrance to his 3 Lutz, or Ryan's entrance + tano lutz) compare point wise to say, a basic quad. How realistic would it be for skaters like JW or Emanual to focus on spectacular triples (upping points for entrances, etc.) as opposed to crossing fingers over a basic quad?

At least picking through the COP possibilities gives us something to do while we miss all the short programs this year!

Mathman's the name, numbers my game.

HERE is the list of point values for all the elements. For instance, a quadruple toe is worth 9.0. A triple Axel is worth 7.5, so if you could get +2 GOE that would beat a quad.

A triple Lutz is 6.0, so you would need a +3 to match the quad toe. So Ryans entry plus Tano plus excellent in all respects would tie a quad toe.

(This is not a 100% reliable guide, because some scores are "factored," but it gives a good hint anyway.)

In Cup of France last year Kevin Van der Perren edged out Brian Joubert. Keven said afterwords that he felt really bad about it because Brian did a quad and a triple Axel, while Kevin only did a triple-triple-triple. But the points added up that way.

Mathman

 

[dorispulaski]

Plush

One has to remember that Plush at his best throws a 4t/3t/3lp

(I don't remember whether the 3t is before or after the 3t but for COP that doesn't matter.)

So for Plush's combination, always done from straight steps and at the beginning of the program, we have:

4t 9 points
3t 4 points
3lp 5.0 points

for a total of 18 points, before you add in any bonuses for execution. The next best combo would be van der Perren's 3t 3t 3lp= 4+4+5 = 13, which ties the Joubert and Goebel standard 4t+3t which is 9+4 = 13

 

[Doggygirl]

The combo numbers really add up...

I'm saying a secret prayer that JW steps out with a quad...SOON!!

DG