I gotta disagree with you there.
Ashley is the clear favorite right now and deservedly so. She's earned it. Ashley's the most complete skater the US has in terms of jumps, spins, artistry, consistency and judges' favor. No one is on her level as of right now...internationally, she's set the bar this season and no one has reached it yet. That's a HUGE deal.
Gracie started off poorly, rebounded well at COR but she's far from a sure thing at this point. It remains to be seen if she can build momentum from competition to competition on a consistent basis. Besides, when Gracie's jumps are off the rest of her skating is very bland. She's improving but if you judge her strictly on the in-between and non-jump elements, she's far below the leaders of the pack. Good news for her is she has time b/w now and Sochi to develop a style and learn how to perform.
Front-runner? Yes. Favorite? Not yet.
The one people need to watch out for is Angela Wang. She has the difficulty (clean technique, gorgeous jumps, speed, etc.) but she also has beautiful programs and performs them with maturity. She hasn't had all the hype surrounding her the way Gracie did which is unfortunate b/c she doesn't get the "known skater" benefit in scoring so even if she kicks butt at nationals it won't matter b/c the judges won't give her the scores she deserves.