DNon-factors: Rachael Flatt (past prime, occupied with college/skating now secondary), Christina Gao (college, skating now secondary), Caroline Zhang (past prime, too many tech problems), Alissa Czisny (injury recovery, likely past prime), Vanessa Lam (tech issues, downward trajectory), Courtney Hicks (not soup yet)
Wild Cards: Mirai Nagasu, Agnes Zawadski (both can be all over the map), Hannah Miller, Leah Keiser (both of those I think also now skate Senior domestically)
I also am writing off Flatt, but I have written her off before and she has come back. I am still writing her off. I am not writing off Zhang or Czisny. Zhang had a terrible Nebelhorn, but also started off slowly last year, subsequently cleared up many of her tech problems and had a podium at 4CC ahead of Murakami. Czisny has been written off many times, but always comes back. She is still the defending silver medalist at Nationals only 8 months ago. It is too early too stick in the fork.