^ Exactly, same thought ran through my head. (ETA: she fell 2x at the GPF as well...she fell earlier in the program before the infamous "hip pointer" fall)
It's almost like there was no way but down after that impressive GP turnout. People were jumping aboard the Wagner Express left and right and I cautioned people against doing so because NONE of the 2008ers have showed any sort of staying power whatsoever. Now it's gotten into some mountainous terrain and is losing steam...fast.
I don't think a SINGLE person here predicted Wagner lower than 1st at Nationals - and although the prediction turned out to be correct it couldn't have been achieved in a more unconvincing fashion. The win was backed into - and I find it hard to believe we'll see the Wagner of 2012 in just 6 weeks. There is a scary pattern happening among the US ladies and it shows no signs of letting up...
There was a thread a month or two ago predicting Wagner winning World. Yes, World. I wonder who's jumped off the wagon.
...Also, it seems Ashley had had flu at Nationals and wasn't skating well, even in practices.
Ashley is not Alissa or Rachael. Other than the challenges she faces of late, she is probably the most fit I've ever seen her in the last few years. It is because of that muscle memory/good training that she was able to tough it out through Nationals. People seem to forget that she did a clean short program (unlike Alissa last year) and that while the long program was far from her best, it was hardly a meltdown.
I think that she could be in 4th place with a 3-3, if she doesn't do a 3-3 or a 2A+3T also Liza/Adelina/Gracie/Akiko/Kaetlyn can beat her...The point is this: With increased competition at Worlds this year, she cannot afford to skate like that there and have any hope of fulfilling the wish of 3 US spots. In fact, even if she laid down her TEB skate there, with the lack of difficulty, who's to say it would be enough for even 4th place? Even Kostner (one of the judges' faves) does 3-3 in the SP. Anyway, there is that possibility that Wagner just does not have a 3-3 ready or consistent enough to put in, and that will limit her score-wise. Probably shooting for 4th at best, 5th-6th realistically, etc.
In fairness, this was before we saw just how well Kim and Kostner skated. I didn't think they'd return so strong and basically remove that possibility from contention.
Coming into Nationals, I'd definitely agree with you that Ashley's training was simply suffering because of health issues and also, probably, general fatigue from all the traveling this season.
But, coming out of Nationals, my concern is Ashley's confidence may go downhill, following the two consecutive 2-fall long programs, not to mention the emergence of Gracie Gold as the hot new thing. Confidence has been the biggest factor for Ashley the last few years. When she's confident and feeling good, she's awesome. When she's doubting herself and feeling down, she suddenly drops from being a near-great to a fairly average skater. Her success has been based on her confidence and consistency. So, yeah, I'm kind of worried at this point. I know she can regroup in time for Worlds physically, but I'm not so sure about the mental aspect.
Too many times during the GP Series, I've read "It was smart of fillintheblank not to attempt the 3-3 because she didn't need it to win." Same thing on the men's side with the quad.
The problem with this line of thinking is that the skater doesn't have the opportunity to develop confidence that they can perform the jump under competition pressure. I don't think (but admit that I could be wrong) that Ashley hasn't done a 3-3 or even a 2A-3T in competition all season long.
Do we really believe she can unveil a SP 3-3 and a LP 3-3 and 2A-3 at the WC? I don't believe it, but I hope I'm wrong about that.
Yeah, she didn't need it to win at SA and in France and at Nationals, but what about when she DOES need it?
Patrick Chan, Daisuke Takahashi, Takahito Mura, Javier Fernandez, Yuzuru Hanyu, Tatsuki Machida and Takahiko Kozuka were the GP(F) gold medalists this season. All went for the quad. Just sayin'
Abbott can't do a quad. Opening his program with a guaranteed fall takes the wind of of his sails choreography and sets the stage for other technical errors later in the program. (JMO.)