U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread | Page 40 | Golden Skate

U.S. Ladies Prediction & Speculation Thread

ImaginaryPogue

Record Breaker
Joined
Jun 3, 2009
I think it'll be Nagasu and Czisny in the GPF and the top two at Nationals. Not quite willing to make a leap into the worlds predictions.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Surely, you cannot possibly be serious in your analysis of US national ladies situation. In addition to Nagasu, the only way Christina right now could beat a Flatt, a Wagner, or even a Zawadski or a Czisny is if each of those screw up and beat themselves. Put another way, IF every one of the US national ladies' contenders skated to their full capacity, Gao would be behind them all, at least in this season. She might even have trouble staying ahead of Zhang, assuming we see some of Caroline's anticipated improvements. Gao's placement at nationals last year was mainly due to the fact that she stayed upright and reasonably clean, while others who should have--didn't. Yes, this could happen again this year and she could place well, but that still doesn't address the crux of the matter--her overall skating just isn't "there" yet, and her on-ice presence is rather bland.

However, the above point about possibly blooming later is valid, she is still young and has time to keep developing. But 2010-2011 season feels a bit early to start crowning her next US ice princess.

Christina's PCS have gone WAY up since last season, and that was what held her back last season. Czisny, Wagner, and Flatt are getting comparable PCS internationally to what Christina is getting on the JGP this season, Zhang's international PCS last season were way lower. If Christina receives national inflation on the same level as these other skaters, I tend to think she would beat most/all of them because of her high base value and the quality of her jumps. Her FS is very smartly constructed, if she misses the 3f-3t in the beginning, she can do 3t-3t at the end, and where she has all the triples, even with a mistake that leaves her with 6 triples, and further URs are not an issue for her at all. I know Alissa has better spins and Ashley is maybe a more complete skater, but they have jump issues and never get much +GOE on jumps because of it. Rachael can land a lot of triples and difficult combos but the quality of her jumps are not great and her spins are probably worse than Christina's. The NBC commentators were raving about Christina last season so I expect her to do very well this season if she skates well at nationals. And if we are talking internationally, the international judges really just don't seem to think Wagner or Flatt are very good, while Christina for competing at junior competitions has been very well received by international judges so far this season. For me, when i watch Rachael or Ashley skate, I think, wow, they are really good but don't ever think they are going to be the next Michelle Kwan or Yuna Kim; but when I watch Christina, I get the feeling that she actually could be the next Michelle or Yuna.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Top 2 at Nationals is plausable, but if Caroline is at or above her old form, she may be top U.S. lady in front of ISU judges.

If she cannot be top 2 at Nationals, "top US lady in front of the ISU judges" won't do her much good. Maybe just another trip to the GPF, that's all.
 

Layfan

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 5, 2009
I think it'll be Nagasu and Czisny in the GPF and the top two at Nationals. Not quite willing to make a leap into the worlds predictions.

If Czisny is absolutely perfect, that could definitely happen. Rachael, Ashley and Christina will most likely have more difficult programs than Alissa. So, one of them will have to mess up or Alissa has to be brilliant and hope her superior spins, lines and presence will put her above the younger girls.

Oh, I forgot about Caroline. But to me it remains to be seen if she'll be factor. I'm reserving judgement until I see her.

It's going to be a total fight just like last year, that's for sure.
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Alyssa has to work on landing the jumps she has planned first before she goes for anything harder...
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Now, let's not get overboard here. She's good but Yuna and certainly Michelle was far better at 16 than Christina.

It's something about her presence and the way she moves. And Michelle made a big leap in maturity, artistry, and polish from 95 to 96 so who says Christina won't do the same this season? Already she is looking much more grown up and expressive than last season.
 

silverlake22

Record Breaker
Joined
Nov 12, 2009
Alyssa has to work on landing the jumps she has planned first before she goes for anything harder...

She also has easier GPs though, and it seems like she always medals at Skate Canada, so making the GPF could just happen mainly out of luck like it happened for Ashley last year. I doubt she'll make the World team unless she wins nationals, but I do think she has a good shot at qualifying for the GPF just considering the field at her events and that Yuna and Joannie will not be competing, Mao is looking shaky, Lepisto pulled out of her first event due to injury, Mirai is also getting over an injury, and that Kostner is probably more inconsistent than Alissa herself.
 

miki88

Medalist
Joined
Dec 28, 2009
It's something about her presence and the way she moves. And Michelle made a big leap in maturity, artistry, and polish from 95 to 96 so who says Christina won't do the same this season? Already she is looking much more grown up and expressive than last season.

Michelle made that leap at a younger age and the change was very obvious from the start, which I am not seeing from Gao. She just doesn't have the same kind of presence as Michelle at the same age. I think it's a bit concerning that despite the hype around Christina, several skaters younger than her are rivaling or exceeding her in terms of skating skills (two Russian phenoms) and presence on ice (the young chinese skater).
 

R.D.

Record Breaker
Joined
Jul 26, 2003
Michelle made that leap at a younger age and the change was very obvious from the start, which I am not seeing from Gao. She just doesn't have the same kind of presence as Michelle at the same age. I think it's a bit concerning that despite the hype around Christina, several skaters younger than her are rivaling or exceeding her in terms of skating skills (two Russian phenoms) and presence on ice (the young chinese skater).

Hype is dangerous.

Let her grow into her own skater. Give her time
 
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