Oh, that's interesting. I'd say the odd of having three men are almost nil. Because:
1. If we go strictly with the last year's worlds placement (Jeremy 5th & Adam 6th), the US should still be able to retain 3 slots for the 2012 worlds. However, several prominent competitors w/drew from the last year's worlds (Stephen, Evan, Johnny, Evegeny, etc), and I don't expect that "lucky" at this year's world :disapp:
2. None of the top US skaters have had outstanding season so far, e.g., no US male skaters at the GPF;
3. Unlike Japan, the ranks of experienced/top males skaters had retired in the US. Hence, it may take 1-3 years to build up experienced/top US male skaters.
Jeremy did not do that bad at GP, though he did not skate his best. He medeled at both his events (2nd and 3rd). Last year he was 1st and 5th. What it came down to this year is that Amodio got a silver and hometown boost at TEB with scoring and got enough points to win the tiebreaker (and get into the final). That FS, as entertaining as it did not merit 153 points, when Jeremy's near clean program at NHK only got 143 (and not to mention that Amodio should have not beaten him in the FS either with a near equal score). I know you can't compare competitions, but still...you kinda have to here when that is what the tiebreaker is.
Still I think Jeremy, when he's on (or even just slightly off) can easily beat Verner and Amodio. I think it would be more challenging to beat the 3 Japanese men and Chan. But I think if he shows his magic, he could definitely give all four of them a run for his money. So I think the worse he could do honestly is 7th, which would make it tough to keep 3 spots. But the odds are more in his favor to finish 6th or even on the podium.
Mroz also lost the tiebreaker to Amodio, but like him and Jeremy, also had a silver and bronze in GP, so I can't say he did that bad either. I think if he's clean, he can manage a 7th place finish at Worlds.
Rippon was pretty terrible at Skate America, but I can't write him off either to do his part. He did well at Worlds last year, so maybe he'll peak there if he makes the team.
So I say the odds are more like 50/50 depending on who we send.
But that's just it! The fact that I have to pray for an "on day" indicates the state of single skating in the US.
I think you're being a bit pessimistic. Despite not having any U.S. men make the GPF, the alternatives were all made out of U.S. Men. In addition a U.S. man medeled in all the GP events. NHK (Abbott - Silver); Skate Canada (Rippon- bronze) COC (Mroz -Silver) COR (Abbott - Bronze) Skate America (Mahbanoozadeh - Bronze) Trophee Eric Bompard (Mroz - Bronze).
Japan is the only other country whose skaters managed the same feat. Of course Japan one ups with having three skaters make the GPF Final. Oh yeah, and let's not forget that Richard Dornbush won the GPF Final in the juniors level.
Point is, is that the GP actually showed how deep the U.S. men's field is. Canada's is not far behind, but even Reynolds with all his quads could not break through. I think whatever three men will send, will be fighting for top 10 spots.
arty:
