US Nationals Predictions

[Joesitz (RIP)]

I think the most likely combination for the U.S men to retain 3 spots is say a 5th from Abbott and 8th from Rippon or a 4th from Abbott and a 9th from Rippon, or maybe a 6th and 7th from the two. Not sure how likely that is though.

You are talking more about Worlds than Nationals. That would be a nice thread next month.

 

[Bluebonnet]

Regarding Jeremy's PCS, I think that will come with more major accomplishments (Worlds medals, 4CC medals, GPF medals, etc) which he currently doesn't have a lot of. Joubert, Verner, and Rippon also have PCS that generally "hover in the 70s" and I think if they have more good performances and major medals their PCS will (should) also increase. But 70s is actually pretty good, even Oda and Kozuka only break 80 if they skate incredibly well. Ryan, Brandon, and Armin have PCS only in the 60s so the fact that Jeremy gets PCS in the 70s even when he tanks is pretty impressive in the grand scheme of things. Takahashi and Chan, and Lysacek when he was still skating, well yeah, their PCS are permanently in the 80s, but I honestly think those marks are too high for these skaters when they don't skate their best, and it becomes especially irritating because both Dai and Patrick are prone to mistakes. I'd rather see Dai and Patrick hover in the 70s for sub par performances so as to prevent 4 fall victories .

You can't have it in both ways. If you think that Takahashi and Chan (and Lysacek for that matter. Though I believe Lysacek's PCS should be lower.) had too high PCS, it must mean that Abbott had too low PCS. No matter which level these guys' PCSs are, 70s or 80s, they are supposed to be in the same range. If Takahashi and Chan's PCS are in 80s, Abbott's PCS should be in the 80s too. If Abbott's PCS is in the 70s, then it would be justified to put Takahashi and Chan's PCS in the 70s. No body can deny that PCS is a result through comparisons. It's not an absolute, blind, emotionless mathematical number to measure individule skater's true abilities like CoP intended to when it was first introduced.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

That is only true if you believe they're equal. Abbott can't touch Takahashi for performance or interpretation (remember how many people criticized many of his interpretive choices in his SP), isn't quite at Chan's level when it comes to skating skills and even performance (though is his equal or better on interpretation, depending on the program). And in terms of other 80's skaters, no way is Abbott near someone like Lambiel.

 

[Bluebonnet]

That is only true if you believe they're equal. Abbott can't touch Takahashi for performance or interpretation (remember how many people criticized many of his interpretive choices in his SP), isn't quite at Chan's level when it comes to skating skills and even performance (though is his equal or better on interpretation, depending on the program). And in terms of other 80's skaters, no way is Abbott near someone like Lambiel.

I do believe they are on about the same level by a large, even though in different areas. I think in PE, Takahashi and Chan are better. In SS, Chan is better than other two. In IN, Takahashi and Abbott are better than Chan. In CH, Abbott is better than Takahashi and Chan. In TR, Chan is better, followed by Abbott, Takahashi is the last. I'm not really into Abbott earlier year's programs before he moved to Yuka Sato. But his SPs in both last year and this year are outstanding in my book in SS, IN, CH, TR, and sometimes in PE.

Lambiel, like Lysacek, belongs to the past. So it doesn't mean much to compare them because at the height of Lambiel's career, Abbott wasn't good. And we all know that CoP inflated year after year. The numbers in different years have little reliability in comparison. Also, if you say Abbott is no way near Lambiel, same should be said about Chan too.

 

[ImaginaryPogue]

I'm comparing Lambiel last season to Abbott this season. The inflation hasn't been that dramatic between the two. If anything, there's been a bit of a deflation in overall PCS, Chan notwithstanding (from the 09/10 season to the 10/11 season, lets be clear, not overall).

 

[FlattFan]

However the Spins were colosal and her stroking is second to none in the International Field.

Spins are great. But her stroking is second to none? Laborious and slow as always.

And silverlake is such a low hanging fruit.

 

[Mathman]

I asked about inflation..

About 10 points across the board, fairly reliably.

 

[bigsisjiejie]

My predictions (not necessarily my wish list)...based on minimal analysis and maximum gut feel--

Ladies:
1) Nagasu
2) Czisny
3) Flatt
4) Wagner
5) Zawadski
6) tossup between Gao and Dobbs
(and Lam will make it into the top 10)

Men:
1) Abbott
2) Mroz
3) Rippon
4) Bradley
5) Mahbanoozadeh
6) tossup between Miner and Dornbush

Pairs:
1) Evora/Ladwig
2) Yankowskas/Coughlin
3) Denney/Barrett
4) 5) 6) some combination of Simpson/Miller, Castelli/Schnapir, Donlan/Speroff

Dance:
1) Davis/White
2) Shibutanis
3) Chock/Zuerlein
4) Kriengkrairut/Giuletti
5) Hubbells
6) tossup between Tibbetts/Brubaker and Cannuscio/Lorello

 

[R.D.]

Ask me my predictions after the SP.

 

[NMURA]

My predictions (not necessarily my wish list)...based on minimal analysis and maximum gut feel--

Ladies:
1) Nagasu
2) Czisny
3) Flatt
4) Wagner
5) Zawadski
6) tossup between Gao and Dobbs

Basically agree with the top 4. However, Dobbs should be much lower. The new rules are quite disadvantageous for her. She's fighting for the tenth place with Caroline Zhang. Lam looks for 7th, and Gilles who usually skates best at US nationals comes around 8th.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

You can't have it in both ways. If you think that Takahashi and Chan (and Lysacek for that matter. Though I believe Lysacek's PCS should be lower.) had too high PCS, it must mean that Abbott had too low PCS. No matter which level these guys' PCSs are, 70s or 80s, they are supposed to be in the same range. If Takahashi and Chan's PCS are in 80s, Abbott's PCS should be in the 80s too. If Abbott's PCS is in the 70s, then it would be justified to put Takahashi and Chan's PCS in the 70s. No body can deny that PCS is a result through comparisons. It's not an absolute, blind, emotionless mathematical number to measure individule skater's true abilities like CoP intended to when it was first introduced.

This would make an interesting topic. The 6.0 was a consensus based on average; the Cop is based on average of points. Both are opinions. A judged sport can not have a clear winner unless all the judges are unanimous.

That is only true if you believe they're equal. Abbott can't touch Takahashi for performance or interpretation (remember how many people criticized many of his interpretive choices in his SP), isn't quite at Chan's level when it comes to skating skills and even performance (though is his equal or better on interpretation, depending on the program). And in terms of other 80's skaters, no way is Abbott near someone like Lambiel.

I use the method critics use in Ballet on PCS. There are Bravura Skaters (Takahashi) and Lyrical Skaters (Abbott). They are difficult to judge fairly if a critic is prone to prefer Mens style should be super masculine and others are prone to Mens style to be defined in music.

There are other various styles, for example: Non Descript (I wont name many); Potential (on the way to glory); and PRIMA (Skaters who can show both bravura and lyrical in a given program - few, if any can. I don't consider a wild step sequence to be the sole bravura offering.) JMO

 

[hyperbunny]

That is only true if you believe they're equal. Abbott can't touch Takahashi for performance or interpretation (remember how many people criticized many of his interpretive choices in his SP), isn't quite at Chan's level when it comes to skating skills and even performance (though is his equal or better on interpretation, depending on the program). And in terms of other 80's skaters, no way is Abbott near someone like Lambiel.

I have to disagree. Abbott is well capable of Takahashi's level of performance and interpritation, but not with his program choices for this year IMO.

 

[silverlake22]

I have to disagree. Abbott is well capable of Takahashi's level of performance and interpritation, but not with his program choices for this year IMO.

His programs aren't the problem - his LP this season is fantastic. Jeremy simply is not in Dai's league when it comes to performance and interpretation. His jumps when he lands them are probably better quality than Dai's, but his ever present "I'm about to puke" look on his face prevents him from connecting with the audience and selling the program for all it's worth like Dai does.

 

[mskater93]

I disagree with your assessment regarding PE and IN - Jeremy has a different style than Dai. He's not about selling, he's about inviting. His style is lyrical and introspective while Dai is more brash and extroverted. I believe Jeremy is well capable of Dai's level of performance, especially with these programs. The SP is a step out of his box and has taken some time for it to be comfortable and this LP is a perfect vehicle for his skating when it's complete and skated as it's planned. I think we saw in the GP series that Jeremy is trying to push back his "peak" this year so everyone is worried that he's not going to be ready.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

That is only true if you believe they're equal. Abbott can't touch Takahashi for performance or interpretation (remember how many people criticized many of his interpretive choices in his SP), isn't quite at Chan's level when it comes to skating skills and even performance (though is his equal or better on interpretation, depending on the program). And in terms of other 80's skaters, no way is Abbott near someone like Lambiel.

There's nothing wrong with either style. The styles of Dai and Jeremy are the opposite ends of the pole. Dai goes after the audience; Jeremy expects the audience to come to him. Apparently you prefer the Bravura style, and others prefer the Lyrical style. No problem. If both skate clean, and the judges know the acceptance of both styles, a winner could emerge soley on the Technical.

 

[SerpentineSteps]

There's nothing wrong with either style. The styles of Dai and Jeremy are the opposite ends of the pole. Dai goes after the audience; Jeremy expects the audience to come to him. Apparently you prefer the Bravura style, and others prefer the Lyrical style. No problem. If both skate clean, and the judges know the acceptance of both styles, a winner could emerge soley on the Technical.

I completely disagree with the above statement. Yes they have different styles that are both praiseworthy, but the way the current scoring system is set up, obvious demonstrations of "performance" and "interpretation" are favored heavily, to the point where gimicky but heavily choreographed programs get awarded higher in the above categories than do understated yet sophisticated programs.

 

[Joesitz (RIP)]

^^^^
Bravura style wins out! but not everyone agrees.

 

[silverlake22]

I completely disagree with the above statement. Yes they have different styles that are both praiseworthy, but the way the current scoring system is set up, obvious demonstrations of "performance" and "interpretation" are favored heavily, to the point where gimicky but heavily choreographed programs get awarded higher in the above categories than do understated yet sophisticated programs.

Dai and Jeremy have different styles, but it is clearly obvious the international judges prefer Dai's to Jeremy's. If they both skate clean at Worlds, Dai will certainly beat Jeremy, and likely by a large margin. Of course, Dai is rarely clean, but his PCS are always through the roof even when he bombs.

 

[Mystic]

Ladies
Czisny
Flatt
Nagasu
Gao

Men
Abbott
Mroz
Rippon
Bradely

Dance
Davis/White
Shibutanis
Chock/Zhurlein
Hubbells

Pairs
Evora/Ladwig
Yankowskas/Coughlin
Denney/Barrett
Castelli/Schnapir

 

[Nadine]

Lol, this is the first time I read this thread and one poster in particular had me ROTFLMAO!!!!

Okay, time to get serious, first off I don't make predictions, never have, too superstitious.

That said, I was *overjoyed* to finally see someone mention Gretchen Donlan & Andrew Speroff! :thumbsup: I looooove this team and hope beyond hope that they can somehow magically make top 5! ^)