US Olympic Team Announced

[kan01]

it is easier to do a lovely program when you are not attempting multiple quads.

All Jason does is not easy. If not, why aren't others getting the GOEs and PCS he is? It's not a conspiracy where all the judges over-score him because they're under a spell or something. If it's that easy, I'm waiting for others to score as he does. He's one of the highest scoring PCS and GOE skater in the world (top three I would say) and that's why he manages to win medals and be at least top 10 at major events since forever even when he bombs one of the programs. And you can't say, it's because of quads, because you have Yuzuru and even Nathan, who has worked hard, and can deliver skating skills too with lots of quads. Jason may have not won a major medal (besides bronze and silver at 4CC which is Europeans equivalent), but he has a very loooong list of medals in his career over many, many guys with consistent quads. And he doesn't even need to be clean for it.

 

[chuckm]

A solid skater in Ilia’s position could have won the Austria cup blindfolded and with their hands tied behind their back. It was so poorly skated all around it was won by a skater with a 68 in the SP who came up from 12th to 1st. Yet he can only finish third. This was his opportunity to show what international judges would have done with his four quads. Bombing your first senior international opportunity does not bode well when you’re trying to get selected for the Olympics.

The Austria cup was Ilia's first ever senior competition where he was able to do quads in the SP---something he could not do on the JGP and therefore had not been training regularly. He struggled in the SP, and placed 13th, but then placed 2nd in the FS and won the bronze medal. Among the skaters he defeated: Mihhail Selevko, Art Levandi, Sena Miyake, Corey Circelli.

If JW 21 had not been cancelled, Ilia would likely have been a medalist, which would have gotten him GP assignments this year, and who knows how he might have done with a series of senior comps under his belt. Certainly his BOW would look completely different.

 

[CanadianSkaterGuy]

In his Olympic quad prior to 2014, Takahashi was Worlds gold and silver medalists, 4CC gold and silver medalists and GPF gold and silver medalists. Not to mention he was a current Olympic bronze medalists. And he was less than 5 points away from the bronze medal at that Olympics, finishing 6th. So, unlike Jason, you can't define a reason to send Daisuke at Olympics only as a perennial fav. He had much better international results in his Oly quad, comparing to Jason in this.

Yes, Takahashi had better accolades. The point I was making is that Takahashi did not deliver at pre-Sochi Nationals and yet he got placed on the National team because of his prowess, as well as an NHK gold that season. It was enough to go to the Olympics over Oda who was 3rd at the GPF and wasn't exactly un-decorated himself. Kozuka got a silver in 2011 and had a GP bronze from CoC that season, but it wasn't enough, nor beating Takahashi by 12 points at Nationals evidently. To me being an Olympic bronze medalist from 4 years prior isn't a reason to be selected for a team, and I don't want skaters to rest on their laurels.

Sentimentally, it was nice to have Daisuke go to Sochi but it was all pageantry really. The only reason Takahashi was 6th and so close to a bronze medal in Sochi was because the field was very weak. If Brown had replicated his quadless Nationals performances, even he could have won the bronze in Sochi. Takahashi placed so high because he got his usual high PCS (and didn't fall) - note that he had only the 12th best TES in the SP, and 13th best TES in the FS. I suspect Jason will have similar issues in 2022, except this time it will be harder with the field having way more quads/medal threats compared to 2014. Only if the guys have Sochi-esque meltdowns will Jason stand a chance at cracking the top 6. Because the SP has fewer elements, Jason might make final flight, but in the FS if the other guys skate their usual, he'll lose ground in the FS with his technical disparity.

 

[ivanja]

It's not quite the same, since Valieva is already getting super inflated PCS, but imagine Russia selecting Liza over Valieva. That's basically what happened here.

 

[macy]

It's not quite the same, since Valieva is already getting super inflated PCS, but imagine Russia selecting Liza over Valieva. That's basically what happened here.

that would have been a completely different scenario. no comparison at all.

1. Liza has been on the senior circuit for like ten years. she's an established senior skater with results to back it up. she's a past world champion and reigning world silver medalist. Malinin is not and does not have that.

2. Valieva skated as a senior this year and completely dominated and took names in every single competition she entered. Malinin skated as a junior all season. he doesn't even have the tech minimums. Valieva was very, very clearly without any doubt Russia's number one and there was no argument to not take her. Malinin more or less came out of nowhere and has no senior body of work.

your comparison is more similar to selecting Malinin over Chen.

 

[TontoK]

Yes. Yes, I would. I've been very consistent on that point, although I concede that in a case where skaters are getting COVID at the actual event... I have no objections to K/F and Alysa being named,

There are many instances (in other sports) where world champions have failed to make an Olympic Team because they did not perform well under pressure at trials. That's sad, but there are also many instances of athletes rounding into form at just the precise moment in a trial, and taking that momentum forward to Olympic gold.

To take this further...

A trials system also has the advantage of a non-controversal outcome, wherein fewer fans might believe the outcome is politically rigged.

This is the third Olympics in recent memory where the US Team has been decided in closed door meetings, rather than based on what the viewers can plainly see on the scoreboard. It undermines public confidence, and this approach has not resulted in medals. The lack of transparency is not good for the sport.

Even if... and I am not in favor of this... exceptions might be made on behalf of clear medal favorites, that exception would not apply in this case.

It's not a matter of which skater I like best - because I like all of the skaters who were in contention. But I don't like a single one of them more than I love the sport as a whole. I understand many might not agree with my approach, but I can say that I have been consistent. I haven't changed my position based on who might be on the team and who might be off - and I wonder if that is the case for everyone else.

 

[lariko]

All Jason does is not easy. If not, why aren't others getting the GOEs and PCS he is? It's not a conspiracy where all the judges over-score him because they're under a spell or something. If it's that easy, I'm waiting for others to score as he does. He's one of the highest scoring PCS and GOE skater in the world (top three I would say) and that's why he manages to win medals and be at least top 10 at major events since forever even when he bombs one of the programs. And you can't say, it's because of quads, because you have Yuzuru and even Nathan, who has worked hard, and can deliver skating skills too with lots of quads. Jason may have not won a major medal (besides bronze and silver at 4CC which is Europeans equivalent), but he has a very loooong list of medals in his career over many, many guys with consistent quads. And he doesn't even need to be clean for it.

Yes, let’s celebrate the unfairness even further. His scores are artificially inflated, that’s why nobody else with triples only could match them. He is just chosen as a poster child for so-called ‘artistic’ skating. Once he leaves, they will find the next one to have as a concession to the older crowd who still clings to 6.0 era, so they can sigh and cry, remembering the glorious 1980’s when skaters were skaters…

 

[macy]

To take this further...

A trials system also has the advantage of a non-controversal outcome, wherein fewer fans might believe the outcome is politically rigged.

This is the third Olympics in recent memory where the US Team has been decided in closed door meetings, rather than based on what the viewers can plainly see on the scoreboard. It undermines public confidence, and this approach has not resulted in medals. The lack of transparency is not good for the sport.

Even if... and I am not in favor of this... exceptions might be made on behalf of clear medal favorites, that exception would not apply in this case.

It's not a matter of which skater I like best - because I like all of the skaters who were in contention. But I don't like a single one of them more than I love the sport as a whole. I understand many might not agree with my approach, but I can say that I have been consistent. I haven't changed my position based on who might be on the team and who might be off - and I wonder if that is the case for everyone else.

i definitely see your point with this and respect your opinion.

as someone on the other side of the fence that favors the BOW criteria, i think it's smart to ensure you're taking a team that has a track record of delivering internationally. it only made sense to take Ashley in 2014 and Adam in 2018- they didn't skate their best at nationals but the committee had every other reason to take them. they both had shown they could compete well internationally, win medals and make the GPF. Ashley even medaled at GPF that same year.

Ross and Mirai had nothing else to support their BOW besides good nationals placings those two years. by taking skaters who are wild cards, don't have a record of solid performances, and are inconsistent is a huge gamble to take at worlds or the olympics. realistically neither one of them would have been able to skate better or place higher than the skater who was chosen in those years. to me it just doesn't make logical sense to name a team based off the results of one domestic competition.

i think as long as the fed makes their criteria and process readily available for all to see and review and then follow through with that criteria, there shouldn't be any reason to speculate. just because people don't agree with it doesn't mean there was something shady happening.

 

[readernick]

Well, if people want to see it or make it that way, it's on them. It's just one of the way to stay behind the skaters they like, or behind their subjective ideas and values. Objectively, it is not about quads vs artistry at all. It's about 1) one's skater overall result (made of the two measures - average and potential) vs other skater's overall result (made of his own average and potential), 2) comparison between them in one exact event, 3) physical and psychological readiness at one projected point of time etc etc... I guess in some situations money/sponsors, promotion of the groups skater is involved in (as training camp or skaters private life), profits he can bring to the ones who are deciding and other factors not connected with the definition of the sport itself are very much involved too.

I mean that's fine if you feel that way. But, the USFS laid out selection criteria before the season started. Everyone knew the criteria. Ilya knew the criteria. This criteria strongly favors Jason's BOW over Ilya's one great national performance. You might not like these criteria. That's fine. @TontoK has been clear all year that he believes nationals should determine a winner/team. I favor a points-based system like Spain. However, neither you, nor I, or @TontoK determined the selection. That was up to the USFS. Once the guidelines have been determined, they should be followed. To their credit, the USFS followed the criteria in all disciplines with equality. So, to me that's fair. Should they change their selection criteria? Maybe, maybe not. There are pluses and minuses either way. But, those acting like leaving Ilya off the team was unexpected or some kind of terrible miscarriage of justice are just selectively ignoring many facts.

 

[lariko]

I mean that's fine if you feel that way. But, the USFS laid out selection criteria before the season started. Everyone knew the criteria. Ilya knew the criteria. This criteria strongly favors Jason's BOW over Ilya's one great national performance. You might not like these criteria. That's fine. @TontoK has been clear all year that he believes nationals should determine a winner. I favor a points-based system like Spain. However, neither you, nor I, or @TontoK determined the selection. That was up to the USFS. Once the guidelines have been determined, they should be followed. To their credit, the USFS followed the criteria in all disciplines with equality. So, to me that's fair. Should they change their selection criteria? Maybe, maybe not. There are pluses and minuses either way. But, those acting like leaving Ilya off the team was unexpected or some kind of terrible miscarriage of justice are just selectively ignoring many facts.

Selection of Diana&Davis in Russia also followed the rule book.

 

[TontoK]

i definitely see your point with this and respect your opinion.

as someone on the other side of the fence that favors the BOW criteria, i think it's smart to ensure you're taking a team that has a track record of delivering internationally. it only made sense to take Ashley in 2014 and Adam in 2018- they didn't skate their best at nationals but the committee had every other reason to take them. they both had shown they could compete well internationally, win medals and make the GPF. Ashley even medaled at GPF that same year.

Ross and Mirai had nothing else to support their BOW besides good nationals placings those two years. by taking skaters who are wild cards, don't have a record of solid performances, and are inconsistent is a huge gamble to take at worlds or the olympics. realistically neither one of them would have been able to skate better or place higher than the skater who was chosen in those years. to me it just doesn't make logical sense to name a team based off the results of one domestic competition.

i think as long as the fed makes their criteria and process readily available for all to see and review and then follow through with that criteria, there shouldn't be any reason to speculate. just because people don't agree with it doesn't mean there was something shady happening.

That's very generous of you, thanks.

And, truthfully, there might be advantages to both ways of looking at things. I think the reasons for a true trial outweight the advantages of the committee.

My concerns about transparency and public confidence can be addressed by making video-audio of the selection committee deliberations public. If they have nothing to hide, then they should be willing to act like it. These people have enormous power over the athletes, but very little accountability for their decisions so far as I can tell.

 

[TontoK]

I mean that's fine if you feel that way. But, the USFS laid out selection criteria before the season started. Everyone knew the criteria. Ilya knew the criteria. This criteria strongly favors Jason's BOW over Ilya's one great national performance. You might not like these criteria. That's fine. @TontoK has been clear all year that he believes nationals should determine a winner. I favor a points-based system like Spain. However, neither you, nor I, or @TontoK determined the selection. That was up to the USFS. Once the guidelines have been determined, they should be followed. To their credit, the USFS followed the criteria in all disciplines with equality. So, to me that's fair. Should they change their selection criteria? Maybe, maybe not. There are pluses and minuses either way. But, those acting like leaving Ilya off the team was unexpected or some kind of terrible miscarriage of justice are just selectively ignoring many facts.

This is fair, regardless of my own feelings about the matter. Thanks.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

I mean that's fine if you feel that way. But, the USFS laid out selection criteria before the season started. Everyone knew the criteria. Ilya knew the criteria. This criteria strongly favors Jason's BOW over Ilya's one great national performance. You might not like these criteria. That's fine. @TontoK has been clear all year that he believes nationals should determine a winner. I favor a points-based system like Spain. However, neither you, nor I, or @TontoK determined the selection. That was up to the USFS. Once the guidelines have been determined, they should be followed. To their credit, the USFS followed the criteria in all disciplines with equality. So, to me that's fair. Should they change their selection criteria? Maybe, maybe not. There are pluses and minuses either way. But, those acting like leaving Ilya off the team was unexpected or some kind of terrible miscarriage of justice are just selectively ignoring many facts.

Of course it is not unexpected and of course it is not a terrible decision (Jason certainly deserved to go too). It is just not quite understandable and logical. After all, I understand those criteria just as a guidelines, not as a strict rules you must follow. How can you compare Ilia's average score with the other seniors, when he couldn't jump quads or even triples he wanted in his short competing as a junior and couldn't perform one more element in his free for the same reason? When he couldn't have the same exposure as Jason in the international scene (he basically had one senior competition in his whole life)? If USFSA literally followed them, then they are just not good in understanding the rules (or better to say normal exceptions of those rules) in basic statistic More logical explanation is when they were able to choose, majority of those who are making the decision just wanted Jason on the team (like they did in Russia with Mozalev vs Semenenko case).

 

[madraykin]

I have been wondering about the same thing and I need to know, and wonder why it´s not mention more often. Because I would think someone would perhaps have tried it already, being the first to land a quad quad combo. You know, since you cant do a 3 - 3 - 3 combo it wouldn´t surprise me if you can´t do a quad quad either!

There's nothing in the rules stopping a 4-4 in the free - it's just a bit daft from a scoring point of view.

Because you only get the GOE calculated on the highest scoring jump in the combination it's better to do the quads separately.

e.g. 4T+4T has a base value of 19, with ceiling of 23.75
3T+3T has a base of 8.40, with a ceiling on 10.50
the total of those two jumping passes is 27.4 base value, 34.25

4T+3T has a base value of 13.70, ceiling of 18.45
Two 4T+3T has a base value of 27.4, ceiling of 36.9

Same four jumps but arranging them the second way you can get potentially 2.65 more points (and 4-3 is easier)

 

[sjchilly]

Anyone know if 2022 Olympic start number (order of skate) for the short program is by ISU World Ranking or random draw (or a combination)?

 

[norwegianfairytale]

There's nothing in the rules stopping a 4-4 in the free - it's just a bit daft from a scoring point of view.

Because you only get the GOE calculated on the highest scoring jump in the combination it's better to do the quads separately.

e.g. 4T+4T has a base value of 19, with ceiling of 23.75
3T+3T has a base of 8.40, with a ceiling on 10.50
the total of those two jumping passes is 27.4 base value, 34.25

4T+3T has a base value of 13.70, ceiling of 18.45
Two 4T+3T has a base value of 27.4, ceiling of 36.9

Same four jumps but arranging them the second way you can get potentially 2.65 more points (and 4-3 is easier)

Thank you for the explanation, you make a good point about this.

Maybe Ilia will do it anyway, just to be the first.

 

[TontoK]

There's nothing in the rules stopping a 4-4 in the free - it's just a bit daft from a scoring point of view.

Because you only get the GOE calculated on the highest scoring jump in the combination it's better to do the quads separately.

e.g. 4T+4T has a base value of 19, with ceiling of 23.75
3T+3T has a base of 8.40, with a ceiling on 10.50
the total of those two jumping passes is 27.4 base value, 34.25

4T+3T has a base value of 13.70, ceiling of 18.45
Two 4T+3T has a base value of 27.4, ceiling of 36.9

Same four jumps but arranging them the second way you can get potentially 2.65 more points (and 4-3 is easier)

But to look at it another way, a 4T-4T combo gains enormous points in one jumping pass, leaving an additional jumping pass to skate a different quad. Of course the 4T would not be able to be performed again in the same program - but knocking out 2 high-scoring quads in one pass would be a distinct advantage for skaters who have mulitiple quad jumps.

 

[lariko]

But to look at it another way, a 4T-4T combo gains enormous points in one jumping pass, leaving an additional jumping pass to skate a different quad. Of course the 4T would not be able to be performed again in the same program - but knocking out 2 high-scoring quads in one pass would be a distinct advantage for skaters who have mulitiple quad jumps.

There is also a possibility of a Lo-combo. Lutfullin demonstrated it with 4S-3Lo

 

[EyesOfLove]

The decision was fair and square from an administrative point of view -- they followed the rules they had laid down, no doubt about that (best wishes to the team!) But I am incredibly sad that it is a skater like Ilia who has to bear the brunt because IMO his skating is so much more than historic jumping abilities. I rarely watch men's skating except at the Olympics, and this is my first time seeing Ilia, and I have a feeling I will follow him through his career hopefully to see him winning an Olympic Gold Medal.

 

[Baron Vladimir]

But to look at it another way, a 4T-4T combo gains enormous points in one jumping pass, leaving an additional jumping pass to skate a different quad. Of course the 4T would not be able to be performed again in the same program - but knocking out 2 high-scoring quads in one pass would be a distinct advantage for skaters who have mulitiple quad jumps.

Only if you have at least four different type of quads in advance you can benefit of 4T-4T combo, because you can repeat just one type of a quad according to the rules. And i'm not sure Quad-Quad combo is even allowed in the SP, it specifically says quad-triple for the men as an option, an no quad possibility for the women.