US Olympic Team Announced

[Tavi...]

Vincent's actually the safer choice for the SP than Jason.

This season from the start of the season to most recent, Zhou has scored 97.35/97.43/99.51.
This season from the start of the season to most recent, Brown has scored 92.39/94.00/89.39.
You say Brown can "easily rack up a mid-90's score". Well the season's results show otherwise.

The main differentiator of course is that Vincent goes for 2 quads to Jason's none. If Vincent does his usual SP, he has greater scoring potential and this greater potential to win or come 2nd in the SP. And before you say it - no, except for certain "fans" of Zhou, nobody cares about 2021 Worlds at this point. It's a new season and Zhou is 4/4 when it comes to short programs.

You say Brown is consistent - well, he consistently hasn't had a successful 3A (with +GOE) in any of his international shorts this season. He had a step out on his 3A at Finlandia, a q on his 3A at Skate Canada, and hand down on his 3A at IdF.

Jason would be 'fine' for the FS where there are only 5 entries, and his PCS advantage will be doubled, so even if he has tech issues he could still beat Messing, the #5 country's entry, and maybe an off-form Kolyada. Even still, Zhou has overall better international results in the FS (186.88, 198.13, 161.18) than Jason (170.13, 165.55, 174.81) by a long shot and has the best international FS score this season other than Chen.

But it won't really matter, as Chen will most likely do one of the segments... probably the SP. And the FS should go to Zhou.

Objectively speaking (i.e. removing one's emotional attachment for Brown or dislike for Zhou from the equation - not that anyone has any! ), Zhou is a better choice for either segment than Brown. Brown is already fortunate that he was selected for the team over Malinin, and is also fortunate to already have an Olympic medal (for a bit underwhelming 4th place/153.67 points team freeskate, mind you - where any skater with a score over 122 in the FS would have received the same result... also worth noting that Jason did even worse in the individual after his team FS, so if we want him to do his best in Beijing maybe it's better that he not do the team).

The 2022 team spots should go to Chen and Zhou.

I have no idea who they will pick for the TE and even as a Jason fan I actually don’t really care much who’s chosen. But I think the issue isn’t so much that Vincent isn’t capable of scoring super high in both segments (we know he is) but the fact that he’s been very nervy in his last two events, on top of scoring only 70 at Worlds last spring and failing to make the FS. I’m not trying to be mean in saying this, but the fact his nerves impacted him in the FS at NHK and Nats doesn’t mean it won’t be in the SP next time. No guarantees either way, but if I’m strategizing for the TE that’s certainly something I’d consider for the SP especially.

 

[Mista Ekko]

That's a very unique theory not supported by any evidence that I can see but if it makes you happy by all means believe it. I would say that the way the US consistently applied this criteria through all disciplines suggested most, if not all, members took it quite seriously. A pair team and a woman were both selected based on their priority group and BOW despite not competing a full event at Nationals.

I do agree that they should have published the criteria even earlier to allow coaches and skaters to properly plan for the season. June would have been better than September.

I'm not trying to be delusional here, Only trying to understand this because it's not believable to me:

You're claiming that the week of Nationals, Due to the criteria element, And because he already failed to
meet that against Chen, Zhou and Brown, Ilia and his entire team and everybody in USFS were already
supposed to understand that he could've won that event and still had no shot against those three no matter
how they did, I mean, There was no way to change the criteria by then, Right?

 

[treblemakerem]

So by that theory it's either that Raf didn't know or care enough, Or they had no faith in him (Which I doubt)
Or the Criteria argument is not as solid as some people here are trying to make it seem,
And it was just an element (A legitimate element, because they wrote it and gave it legitimacy in September)
that was brought up to back choosing Jason in this occurrence, Because that's the choice they actually wanted to make,
And maybe in a different situation they wouldn't have used it, Or used a different argument.

I think they knew from the beginning that the Olympics was a huge long shot. They decided to do what was best for Ilia's skating in the long term rather than go all in for the Olympics. At the beginning of the season there was still a chance one of the top three could have a bad season or get injured, etc and that would change things. He could have gone senior, done the hardest content possible and messed it up and not make it. I don't necessarily think they made a bad decision, but that decision does have the effect of lowering Olympic chances.

 

[bekalc]

I think they knew from the beginning that the Olympics was a huge long shot. They decided to do what was best for Ilia's skating in the long term rather than go all in for the Olympics. At the beginning of the season there was still a chance one of the top three could have a bad season or get injured, etc and that would change things. He could have gone senior, done the hardest content possible and messed it up and not make it. I don't necessarily think they made a bad decision, but that decision does have the effect of lowering Olympic chances.

It’s also quite possible they felt four quads in the long would be undeniable

 

[readernick]

Then why bring him over? He doesn't have criteria for worlds, Are they just trying to give him Covid so he could
develop antibodies faster?

This made me laugh. It's so accurate isn't it. For all the competitors, Nationals really didn't change the selections that BOW had almost predetermined except for one pair and one ice dance team who were almost tied prior to Nationals. But, Ilya is being sent Worlds pending his TES minimums. He definitely wouldn't have gotten that spot without this amazing competition. I'm pretty sure that's the most his team reasonably expected prior to his exceptional and uncharacteristically clean Nationals skates.

 

[iceskater10]

He landed 6 quads at Nationals. That’s one competition. In international competitions this year he landed 2 quads total with positive goe. I think if he has been skating anywhere close to what he did at nationals consistently this year he would be on the team He skated lower content on the jgp and even that wasn’t clean.

And how many Quads has Jason landed???? 0

 

[el henry]

FWIW, regarding non-Challenger Senior Bs:

whole post​

Thank you for the information about the Challengers and travel expenses, I did not know that.

I did know, also from speaking to skaters' families and from having the great good fortune to overhear Frank Carroll talk during a comp, that USFS must approve entries to Challengers and summer international comps like Philly International. Not just USFS, evidently Japan also has this requirement. That's why my sentence was specific: "I could not imagine that the USFS would deny *Ilia* a Challenger if he wanted it"

An interesting tidbit from Jason's interview on the Today show is that he was notified of his selection to the Olympic team almost two hours before the USFS ended the suspense for the rest of us.

 

[lariko]

And how many Quads has Jason landed???? 0

In the interest of fairness, Brown has a quad. One quad. The second is pending. I hope he lands it in Olympics, because if he falls again, it will be anticlimactic. Why is he always trying 4S anyway, not 4T?

 

[el henry]

I think they knew from the beginning that the Olympics was a huge long shot. They decided to do what was best for Ilia's skating in the long term rather than go all in for the Olympics. At the beginning of the season there was still a chance one of the top three could have a bad season or get injured, etc and that would change things. He could have gone senior, done the hardest content possible and messed it up and not make it. I don't necessarily think they made a bad decision, but that decision does have the effect of lowering Olympic chances.

This.

It is not discouraging great young talent to ask them to skate senior before making their case for a spot on the Olympic team. Jason did it, and against the initial wishes of the fed.

I certainly understand the decision of Ilia's team. But it is rather rich that at least one member now wants to change the rules after Nats. Ummm, not so much.

 

[moonvine]

So the criteria was chosen and published 4 months ago,

Did someone like Malinin ever have a chance to beat Jason on criteria this fall?
I mean, You're saying he could've won Nationals (One of the hardest mens events this season so far)
And still not meet their demands

Winning the silver medal put Ilya in Priority Group 3, the same group Jason was in. Had Ilya won the gold medal Ilya would still have been in priority group 3.

Further filtering criteria are as follows:

Placement at 2021 World Championships.

Benchmark is top 10.

Jason meets this criteria (7th at Worlds). Ilya does not.

They both made their respective GP/JGP finals. Both were cancelled. Draw.

Both had 2 GP events plus one challenger. Jason finished with a score in the top 10 in all 3. Ilya had one score in top 15. Two scores not top 15. Advantage Jason.

Median consistency - Jason top 10. Ilya not top 15

Trending scores - Ilya wins this one. His scores trended upward from the Challenger to Nationals.

Final criteria (tiebreaker) is comparison of 2020 and 2021 US Nationals.

Jason 2021 US Nationals - 3rd Ilya WD

2022 US Nationals. Jason 4th. Ilya 2nd. Advantage Jason

It’s very clear that at the time these criteria were approved, USFS was favoring consistency and that’s what swung the pendulum very heavily in Jason’s favor.

Not sure what you mean by “someone like Malinin.”

From where I sit, that’s a skater with one very good performance. And no, using this criteria there is no way for such a skater to make the team.

 

[treblemakerem]

And how many Quads has Jason landed???? 0

Yes and Ilia needed 6 quads to beat quadless Jason by 13 points which is a little less than what he earned for one quad toe at Nationals.

 

[chuckm]

Had there been a JW 2021 and Ilia made the podium there, he might have gotten one or more GP events, and done well enough to build a creditable senior BOW. The crud is somewhat responsible for Ilia's non-selection for Beijing.

 

[moonvine]

I'm not trying to be delusional here, Only trying to understand this because it's not believable to me:

You're claiming that the week of Nationals, Due to the criteria element, And because he already failed to
meet that against Chen, Zhou and Brown, Ilia and his entire team and everybody in USFS were already
supposed to understand that he could've won that event and still had no shot against those three no matter
how they did, I mean, There was no way to change the criteria by then, Right?

Then why bring him over? He doesn't have criteria for worlds, Are they just trying to give him Covid so he could
develop antibodies faster?

I would hope they would understand the published criteria. I’m assuming that they’ve all taken the time to read it. And no, there was no way to change the criteria by then. The criteria have been what they’ve been since September.

Why bring him over where? You lost me with that question.

 

[moonvine]

And how many Quads has Jason landed???? 0

There is nowhere in the criteria for “number of quads landed.”

 

[moonvine]

Had there been a JW 2021 and Ilia made the podium there, he might have gotten one or more GP events, and done well enough to build a creditable senior BOW. The crud is somewhat responsible for Ilia's non-selection for Beijing.

He might have. We just don’t know and there is no way to tell. He WD from Nationals last year. I don’t know why.

 

[Flying Feijoa]

100%. The only problem is that there are literally several other skaters who can do what Jason can't do, reliable, rotated quads. He's done exceptionally well with his lack of technical content and that's chalked up to his pure talent -- he is the poster child for skating not being all about the jumps, and still being able to be competitive without a quad. There certainly won't be another Jason Brown, nor would we really want there to be. In the 80s or 90s he would have never lost a competition.

But if there were a Jason Brown type with the artistry/lines/flexibility/etc. who could actually reel off quads, that skater would literally be the best ever, and it's frustrating that in a decade long career, Jason (not for lack of trying) hasn't even developed one reliable quad.

Actually I would also like to see others try skating Jason's Sinnerman programme. We might be pleasantly surprised.
I'm not saying Jason is not special but sometimes I think the prevalent narrative around him creates a bias against appreciating the SS/artistry/spins of other skaters.
Because I was a fan of Patrick Chan, Daisuke Takahashi etc., for a long time I didn't really get Jason (only until sometime after he moved to Orser). Fast forward a few years and the narrative is repeating itself. Jason may well be 'once in a generation', but skating generations are measured in 4-year intervals. In fact considering men's skating careers usually exceed 4 years, the next person to fill this niche (the same niche occupied by Cranston, Curry and others years back) is probably already competing, but not fully developed/recognised yet.

 

[iceskater10]

In the interest of fairness, Brown has a quad. One quad. The second is pending. I hope he lands it in Olympics, because if he falls again, it will be anticlimactic. Why is he always trying 4S anyway, not 4T?

never landed a clean Quad!! look at his protocols. UR or UR/Downgrade + fall

 

[lariko]

Actually I would also like to see others try skating Jason's Sinnerman programme. We might be pleasantly surprised.
I'm not saying Jason is not special but sometimes I think the prevalent narrative around him creates a bias against appreciating the SS/artistry/spins of other skaters.
Because I was a fan of Patrick Chan, Daisuke Takahashi etc., for a long time I didn't really get Jason (only until sometime after he moved to Orser). Fast forward a few years and the narrative is repeating itself. Jason may well be 'once in a generation', but skating generations are measured in 4-year intervals. In fact considering men's skating careers usually exceed 4 years, the next person to fill this niche (the same niche occupied by Cranston, Curry and others years back) is probably already competing, but not fully developed/recognised yet.

@yume suggested Zonov.

I am kinda tired, but I am not catching up on logic of all men investing into learning Brown's choreo? He is already at an advantage, vs literally everyone else, so why do they need to invest additional efforts to prove absolutely nothing, because no Brown fan would ever accept anyone else ever again skating to Sinnerman, let alone skating it better?

 

[moonvine]

FWIW, regarding non-Challenger Senior Bs:

The family of a U.S. entry in 2017 Philadelphia International told me that the skater needed USFS approval to enter.

Given that Cranberry Cup (the international competition) is a Senior B like Philadelphia International, it would seem likely to me (although I do not know for sure) that USFS also would need to approve Cranberry Cup entries?

I get that if too many skaters make requests to enter Cranberry Cup, then some would be turned down and steered toward Cranberry Open (the club competition).​

You are referring to summer international competitions (summer non-Challenger Senior Bs), right?

Anyway, as a general comment (regarding any skater in any season):

I can imagine USFS withholding approval for a Senior B if USFS does not feel sure that a skater is ready for senior.​

---

The USFS selection criteria for 2018 Olympics most definitely were published in advance!
I do not have the link to the full document at my fingertips -- plus IIRC, the link now is dead anyway.

Same for 2014 Olympics, IIRC -- or at least the public and media had access in advance to a USFS summary of the criteria.
(The skaters obviously received full information in advance.)

I do remember very clearly that *before* 2014 Nats, GS had some discussion of the 2014 criteria. Not a ton of discussion, but some. And then there was a ton of discussion after USFS selected Ashley in 2014.
Before 2018 Nats, GS had plenty of discussion of the 2018 criteria. And then plenty more after USFS selected Adam.

(I am not going to hunt through GS archives to find examples of the discussions related to 2014 and 2018, but I assure you that they did happen.)

---

For Challengers, I feel 99% sure that USFS pays most or all expenses for skaters: entry fees + travel for skaters, lodging for skaters, meals for skaters.

---

As for 2022 selection of U.S. men:

My guess would be that the USFS committee was not unanimously in favor of Jason, although obviously the overall decision was in favor of Jason.
In other words, I would guess that in some cases, individual committee members applying the criteria concluded that Ilia should be selected.

FWIW, my own opinion is that the selection of Jason was not "wrong" -- but I do not think that selection of Ilia would have been "wrong" either.​

It makes total sense that one would have to be approved by US Fed before representing the US in a competition.

It seems it is a lot easier to get permission to skate an event such as Philly or Cranberry Cup and we see skaters who do not normally represent the US at the Senior level doing so at these comps. Examples Heidi Munger, Sierra Venetta.

I don’t see how by looking at the criteria as published one could make any other decision than the one made. I tend to think the delay was them looking for a way out, but the criteria were so specific that they kind of painted themselves into a corner. Of course I do not know for sure.

I probably wouldn’t have remembered criteria from 2018. At the time I hadn’t gone full blown into fandom and wasn’t following everything as closely as I am now.

 

[el henry]

Actually I would also like to see others try skating Jason's Sinnerman programme. We might be pleasantly surprised.
I'm not saying Jason is not special but sometimes I think the prevalent narrative around him creates a bias against appreciating the SS/artistry/spins of other skaters.
Because I was a fan of Patrick Chan, Daisuke Takahashi etc., for a long time I didn't really get Jason (only until sometime after he moved to Orser). Fast forward a few years and the narrative is repeating itself. Jason may well be 'once in a generation', but skating generations are measured in 4-year intervals. In fact considering men's skating careers usually exceed 4 years, the next person to fill this niche (the same niche occupied by Cranston, Curry and others years back) is probably already competing, but not fully developed/recognised yet.

I would loooove to see another skater try Sinnerman. I don't think any other skater would try. I do think the program is that difficult and that no other men's skater that I have seen has the talents to skate it was well as Jason does.

I love many other skaters who are flexible, artistic, spin well, etc. If they truly want to show they could skate a comparable program equally well, and are willing to engage Rohene Ward, I am sure he will craft it for them. And then we will see.

Come on guys, if you are truly as good as Jason but just under appreciated, prove it, and call Rohene. I seriously would love to see it.